Mini 1469: Rage (Game Over)

[GuyInFreezer]

vote count 3.03

morph the cat (L-3):

Cheery Dog

Shamrock (L-4):

Cheery Dog (L-4):

Naomi-Tan (L-4):

Surviva316 (L-4):

NSin (L-4):

Kalimar (L-4):

Not Voting:

morph the cat, Shamrock, Naomi-Tan, surviva316, NSin, Kalimar

With 7 alive, it takes 4 votes to lynch.

Until deadline: (expired on 2013-08-24 13:30:00)

Mod Notes

• 

[Cheery Dog]

@surviva, you think bp sk v mafia jk + 2 unknown v town joat, odd night doctor and ic (plus how ever many vts there are) would be balanced?

The only one who's said that the SK is bullet-proof is you, and the only one who said that you have jailkeeping powers is you. So again, you're assuming that I'm accepting the premise that you're not full of shit.

Do you agree that there is a serial killer in this game? Or are you of the weird pervasion that as a joat, Serra decided to kill and then hide. That order of performing actions doesn't make any sense to me.
I claimed my powers in the massclaim, and I have realised that it was dumb of me to just convert from my actual powers into trying to put it down as if I was playing as a town alignment, with the massclaim came the realisation of what this setup was completely, making morph an SK and for town's chance to win this game (without resorting to a prisoners dilemma) is to lynch said SK.

So you are assuming that serra's powers were vig and hider? Wouldn't (a) Occam's Razor and (b) the fact that Cheery just fucking claimed scum make a SK the far more obvious option?

It's fairly obvious that he's using the SK angle to obfuscate the fact that it's 3 scum not 2. He would have had no reason to claim scum and play up the SK angle otherwise, nya.

Not so much assuming it, as it makes more sense given his quick scum claim.

My conversation of powers directly to town alignment may have been a dumb move at the time, but I went with what I would have done with my powers if I was town in that claim.

[surviva316]

Surviva, what did you want to say about morph?

I'm not entirely sure what to make of the post that Cheery quoted. I can certainly read it as a secondary killer because it does sound like someone who's concerned with hearing the final thoughts from someone they thought would die that night. I don't know why a Vanilla Townie (or commuter townie) would be so concerned with getting final D1 thoughts from someone when there was no chance to reverse the lynch train at that point (PPP was waiting to be hammered) and when there was no reason to believe that she wouldn't be around on D2 to offer thoughts. That being said I don't know if it quite makes sense as a serial killer, either.

I could totally see it as town vig, trying to squeeze out some final information to make the most informed kill that night, and if they got lucky and spiked scum, then maybe the response would contain some association tells or something to go on.

As serial killer, I don't know why they would care what GM had to say. Giving a facade of being concerned with her alignment and then killing someone that a vig might kill might give him a good out to later in the game say they're town vig, but if that was the plan, then why did they not claim town vig (I would have believed them)?

I also think serra was probably the best kill for a SK Morph, so the N2 kill makes a lot of sense, but that's kinda null because both implosion and serra made a lot of sense for almost any anti-town player to kill, and we have nothing to go on to determine which role killed whom (except for lolCheery continuing to think we're just going to take his word that scum killed implosion and secondary killer killed serra).

As for Morph's overall game, I could see it as either power role or scum/SK. They've been tentative and stayed out of the limelight, and the reads he's offered have been mostly responsive (eg: ~"My meta reads agree with this; my meta reads differ with that."~) Again, if he'd claimed as vig, I could see why he'd play that way. As town commuter, I don't see playing tentatively; if anything, they'd be more brazen than vanilla townies.

I guess cliffs would be that I could see the argument for Morph being SK, but Cheery's "hey guys, I found the SK, let me fill the blanks in with some heresay" case is laughably overblown. He's maybe my favorite for SK right now, but far from a lock and seeing as how Cheery's a certainty to be scum, I'd feel much better about lynching him

even if

we could reasonably guess that it was 2-1-10.

[surviva316]

@surviva, you think bp sk v mafia jk + 2 unknown v town joat, odd night doctor and ic (plus how ever many vts there are) would be balanced?

The only one who's said that the SK is bullet-proof is you, and the only one who said that you have jailkeeping powers is you. So again, you're assuming that I'm accepting the premise that you're not full of shit.

Do you agree that there is a serial killer in this game? Or are you of the weird pervasion that as a joat, Serra decided to kill and then hide. That order of performing actions doesn't make any sense to me.
I claimed my powers in the massclaim, and I have realised that it was dumb of me to just convert from my actual powers into trying to put it down as if I was playing as a town alignment, with the massclaim came the realisation of what this setup was completely, making morph an SK and for town's chance to win this game (without resorting to a prisoners dilemma) is to lynch said SK.

I said that there is no evidence that the SK is bulletproof or that you have jailkeeping abilities beyond the fact that you've said these things, and your reply contains zero evidence whatsoever for these two things (other than the fact that you claimed to have jailkeepinng powers in the massclaim), so um ... Hi, Cheery, how are you doing today?

[morph the cat]

I went back to review the post and its surrounds.

As much as I'm worried he might flip town, someone had better hammer pecan before we miss our DL.

I plan to.

Is this enough input from GM for now? We have a few more hours.

- f

If you're around for DL, feel free to wait it out.

I plan to.

Is this enough input from GM for now? We have a few more hours.

- f

I'm still willing to drop the hammer. There are a few things that still make me worried, but I'd put decent enough odds on pecan flipping scum to be comfortable with him being our D1 lynch.

Not feeling goodmorning's #763. Can you explain why you found the asterisked things scummy?

I was concerned about ending the day prematurely due to GM's replacing so late into a suspected slot, though we were down to less than 24 hours at that point iirc.

The very next post after ours was expressing concern and wanting clarification from GM, so we held off.

[morph the cat]

I grabbed/duplicated some extra quotes unintentionally. Ignore the first two quotes blocks.

[surviva316]

I've read that page two or three times now, and I have my thoughts on how it developed, but I want to let others chime in.

[Cheery Dog]

I said that there is no evidence that the SK is bulletproof or that you have jailkeeping abilities beyond the fact that you've said these things, and your reply contains zero evidence whatsoever for these two things (other than the fact that you claimed to have jailkeepinng powers in the massclaim), so um ... Hi, Cheery, how are you doing today?

We have no evidence that any claims are true except for Kalimar being an Innocent Child and those that have died.
I'm sorry you don't want to trust my word, but other than trying to put town into a prisoner's dilemma by wanting me lynched today rather than tomorrow and getting rid of one of the kills that would happen tonight, I don't understand what your deal is.

Are you expecting me to have breadcrumbed or something? If you're after my results, they're not coming, I want my partner to have the best shot possible going into 3p lylo, so I'm going to go off and lurk somewhat, my business is done here, time to just wait for town to get some sense in and see the only way they have of being capable of winning is lynching the Serial Killer.
(because I'm fairly sure he is bulletproof, and I won't be wasting my kill that way tonight)

[surviva316]

1) Claimed scum abilities are different from claimed town abilities. Shamrock and Morph might be lying about what abilities they have, but if they are, then they're not town. It's the exact opposite for your claim. We can be certain that you're anti-town, but there's plenty of motivation for you to lie about your abilities, so you're a scum with unknown abilities. A town claim is uncertain of alignment, but if town then they have x abilities. That's not 100%, lock-tight always true, but anything else than a scum claim being anti-town or a town PR claiming anything other than their abilities is the extreme exception to the rule.

2) The burden of proof is on you. You started this conversation by saying, ~" It's 2-1-10 because the town abilities are { ... }, the SK abilities are { ... }, and the scum abilities are { ... }."~ I pointed out that there were a couple of those { ... } that we can't be certain of beyond just taking your word for it. Pointing out that other of the { ... } are equally uncertain doesn't help your point.

[Shamrock]

So I don't know what Cheery was hoping to accomplish with this gambit but lynching him is clearly a better option than flailing around in the hopes of catching a SK (which would obviously be better than lynching mafia, but is harder to do on purpose and less likely to happen by accident, and I'm not willing to stake the game on it when we have a guaranteed scumflip right here). Is there anything we need to do before ending the day?

[Cheery Dog]

I've already identified the sk for you, I don't know why you guys all want to their towns chances of winning out the window.

[NSin]

This game is making my head spin.
If serra didn't kill-hide then I can't find any other explanation other than the presence of an SK.
In that case I'll believe Cheery--although he's scum his JK claim seems genuine.
We'll grace him with another day to live when we lynch him tomorrow, k?

VOTE: morph the cat

[Shamrock]

This game is making my head spin.
If serra didn't kill-hide then I can't find any other explanation other than the presence of an SK.
In that case I'll believe Cheery--although he's scum his JK claim seems genuine.
We'll grace him with another day to live when we lynch him tomorrow, k?

VOTE: morph the cat

Oh good, I found Cheery's buddy.

[surviva316]

In that case I'll believe Cheery--although he's scum his JK claim seems genuine.

[surviva316]

BTW, are people still interested in the voices of the dead research? I got about halfway through so it'd be a shame to put it to waste, but since the massclaim/CD scum claim/NSin shit show, it seems like the least important thing to be talked about right now.

[NSin]

>_>
Yeah. I'm scum. As much scum as everyone else in the game is.

I don't believe how/why you guys can't think simply. Does the mod lie to us with the flips? No. Are people lying to us about their claims? Maybe, but I think not.

Then what do we do? Proceed based off what we know.

Two kills night one, two kills night two.
Most probably not multiball, since if it is, we're screwed no matter what we do.

Which means either
a) there's a serial killer.
b) Serra was a kill-(hider, was it?) JOAT

Since y'all said b) was improbable I'm inclined to believe it's a).

[surviva316]

I should say the NSin/Naomi shit show, btw. Naomi's shit show is maybe more silliness than scumminess, but those two have been Dumbass A and Dumbass B today.

In fact, Naomi's game from beginning to end is quite a fascinating bouquet of worthlessness. I read the VT claim on D1 as being most likely VT just using Occam's Razor (more likely a bad decision made by one person than a ploy approved by a whole team of people), but it's starting to look like the scum team is just such an uncoordinated mess that is capable of silly fancy play syndrome that the VT claim now looks like a null read at the very very best.

Off the top of my head, I can't think of any reason that the team can't be CD/NSin/Naomi, mostly because I can't remember much of any of their thoughts on anyone else except for the fishy D2 interaction between CD and Yates (NSin). I feel pretty good (before doing a readthrough) about Morph as SK with a CD/NSin/Naomi scum team. As silly as it might seem to have a 4-player anti-town faction already figured out, if it's 3-1-9, then there's only one townie left among the 5 suspects anyway, and it seems really really tough for Shamrock to be scum at this point. (In other words, if it's 3-1-9 and Shamrock is town, then that necessarily means--from my perspective--that the 4 anti-town players are Morph/CD/NSin/Naomi). It's not impossible for him to be SK, but that doesn't have practical effect on what the town should be doing at this point anyway.

[surviva316]

>_>
Yeah. I'm scum. As much scum as everyone else in the game is.

I don't believe how/why you guys can't think simply. Does the mod lie to us with the flips? No. Are people lying to us about their claims? Maybe, but I think not.

Then what do we do? Proceed based off what we know.

Two kills night one, two kills night two.
Most probably not multiball, since if it is, we're screwed no matter what we do.

Which means either
a) there's a serial killer.
b) Serra was a kill-(hider, was it?) JOAT

Since y'all said b) was improbable I'm inclined to believe it's a).

That's a fun little use of logic to prove something that literally all of us already believe. No one doubts there's an SK. What I'm rolling on the floor about is that you're inclined to believe a confirmed scum (scratch inclined to: just reread your post and said you WILL believe him) and that you think his JK claim is "genuine" based on no proof whatsoever. What did CD say made it seem genuine--that made it unlikely that he could have said it if he were lying. As far as I remember, all he said was "I'm JK and I protected the Innocent Child." That seems like something that's very easy for a liar to say.

I mean, he didn't say, "I"m uuuuhhhh, ummmmm let me think about this for a second...JK? Yeah, that sounds good. And I protected Shamrock--no wait that's no good--Kalimar! Yeah, I protected that guy!" So yeah, he was more genuine he could have been I guess, but within reason he pretty much said what a liar would say.

[Kalimar]

To be fair, surviva, he admitted he didn't really jailkeep me in his scum claim post (and if he's scum Jailkeeper, this is logical - I didn't buy that he'd protect me anyway). I think there's a good chance Cheery is telling the truth about being the scum Jailkeeper (for ~reasons~), but I'm just not sure about two scum vs. three scum.

I think morph probably is the SK, which is tricky.

Something is missing in NSin's speculation that should really be there leading up to his vote, but I'm not sure it's an alignment tell because of the previous weird logic. (The whole 'dumb or scum' thing). Even so, it doesn't make me confident he's town.

One thing I would like to know from Naomi and NSin is who they think the remaining scum are.

[GuyInFreezer]

People here are very great at avoiding prods <.<

[Shamrock]

To be fair, surviva, he admitted he didn't really jailkeep me in his scum claim post (and if he's scum Jailkeeper, this is logical - I didn't buy that he'd protect me anyway). I think there's a good chance Cheery is telling the truth about being the scum Jailkeeper (for ~reasons~), but I'm just not sure about two scum vs. three scum.

I think morph probably is the SK, which is tricky.

Something is missing in NSin's speculation that should really be there leading up to his vote, but I'm not sure it's an alignment tell because of the previous weird logic. (The whole 'dumb or scum' thing). Even so, it doesn't make me confident he's town.

One thing I would like to know from Naomi and NSin is who they think the remaining scum are.

What do you think of my current pet theory that surviva is the SK?

A lot of his initial analysis upon replacing into the game was very paranoiac ("everything about X's play suggests that he is town... but what if he's faking it?!?!") which initially struck me as town-paranoia rather than nonscummitment, but it would also make a whole heck of a lot of sense coming from an SK.

[Naomi-Tan]

People here are very great at avoiding prods <.<

Could be worse, at least there not replacing out.

[Naomi-Tan]

In fact, Naomi's game from beginning to end is quite a fascinating bouquet of worthlessness. I read the VT claim on D1 as being most likely VT just using Occam's Razor (more likely a bad decision made by one pony than a ploy approved by a whole team of ponies), but it's starting to look like the scum team is just such an uncoordinated mess that is capable of silly fancy play syndrome that the VT claim now looks like a null read at the very very best.

I really doubt the scum team is as Uncoordinated as you think, so far they have edluded everyone and even confused me to the point im not even sure what to think anymore, other than morph's lack of a quick hammer either says; A) there scum or B) there is 2 scum memebers. its the only way I can see them not winning by quick hammer at this point.

[NSin]

No one doubts there's an SK.

What?
I'm pretty sure at the start of today you said there wasn't a SK.

[NSin]

"I'm JK and I protected the Innocent Child."

That was his townJK claim, I believe.
His scumJK claim was the one that put mtc as the SK.