Mini 1405: The Simpsons Mafia (Game Over)

[Ser Arthur Dayne]

Vote Count 5.06

• D3f3nd3r (3) -
  havingfitz, ArcAngel9, qwints

[L-1]

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havingfitz (0) -

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Plessiez (0) -

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sword_of_omens (0) -

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ArcAngel9 (0) -

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qwints (0) -

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Not Voting (3) – Plessiez, sword_of_omens, D3f3nd3r[/list]

With 6 alive, it takes 4 to lynch.

Deadline is ~6:30PM EST March 8.
Countdown: (expired on 2013-03-08 18:30:00)

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[D3f3nd3r]

Qwints, if he is the doctor he claims to be, can do what we need.

Then again, if you want to keep a rather useless at Day but helpful by Night town-member, feel free to keep me in.

[Plessiez]

Actually, D3f, why aren't you fighting for your slot?

Even if D3f3nd3r had claimed VT he should still be fighting for his slot . I'm finding his attitude toward this game kind of bizarre. Mafia isn't a competition to be the "best townie", D3f3nd3r. The idea is to lynch scum. If you're town, there's a non-zero chance that by lynching you we lose the game

right now

. Why aren't you pushing for anybody else? Why aren't you at least voting for fitz?

I find it difficult to imagine you're normally this apathetic, in all honesty. And I would appreciate straight yes or no answers to the following:

1) Do you have a hidden winning agenda?
2) Is there some game-mechanic forcing you (or merely encouraging you) not to vote?
3) Did you breadcrumb or hint at your claimed role at any point during day 1?

[sword_of_omens]

Damn it D3f! Really?
that's all you have to say?

[D3f3nd3r]

All three are "no."

I find that fighting for my role, in the past, is ineffective as both town and scum. Very rarely does pleading save me; most often it seems to seal my fate.

And, that post by Plessiez really gives me the impression that he finds me to be town.

And, being a useless townie does not help town that much, if at all. The whole "good townie" thing helps town win. If every townie was useless, I assume the game would be very close to over by now.

[qwints]

We can start ruling out some scenarios now, right? Since plessy and sword haven't quick hammered?

[havingfitz]

We can start ruling out some scenarios now, right? Since plessy and sword haven't quick hammered?

Not sure their lack of hammer helps much.

If one of them is scum it points to there only being one scum left and them wanting to avoid being on a mislynch.

If they are both town it just points to both of them giving today's vote its due diligence.

So not a lot to decipher.

Wait..there is one scenario we can rule out...if there are two scum left...we know they aren't both sword and pless.

[Plessiez]

And, that post by Plessiez really gives me the impression that he finds me to be town.

It's not so much that I

think

you're town, rather it's that I find it easy to believe you

could

be town. I really don't have much of a read on you at all, and I'm a bit reluctant to lynch somebody by PoE in what's potentially endgame. Especially when they could easily just be an incredibly disinterested townie.

Why did you not breadcrumb your role?

Wait..there is one scenario we can rule out...if there are two scum left...we know they aren't both sword and pless.

We can go further than that, I think? If there are two partnered scum left and D3f3nd3r is town, then the scum would win by mislynching him today. Given that neither sword nor I have hammered, I think it's clear neither sword nor I could be scum in this scenario. That is, one of the following must be true:

[1] D3f3nd3r is scum (either the last scum left or with a partner); or
[2] D3f3nd3r is town and there is only one scum left alive (or perhaps one scum and a SK?); or
[3] More than one of {qwints, arcangel, fitz} is scum.

In fact, if arc is scum then qwints is surely scum too (otherwise the scum must have withheld their kill on night 3 for no reason at all, right?). Which means we can break that third case down into two subcases:

[3a] qwintz and arcangel are scum; or
[3b] qwints and fitz are scum.

I think both these subcases are very unlikely. There's just no reason for qwints to jump off the D3f3nd3r wagon on day 2 and join the Mhork wagon, as he did, if he is scum with Mhork and both the other wagons (D3f3nd3r and saulres) are on town.

So I

think

we can maybe conclude that either D3f3nd3r is scum or the game isn't in mylo. Which certainly supports my belief that D3f3nd3r is the safe choice today.

But, ugh. I really don't want to make a decision just yet .

[ArcAngel9]

Ples and Swords - We have three days to decide. I am still up for "No Lynch" if you don't want to risk mislynching today.

[qwints]

Wouldn't it be hilariously awful if AA was a SK who just hadn't shot yet?

No lynch doesn't make sense at this point because our lynch pool is so small. D3f3nder's protects also don't make sense. We lynch him today, and then HF tomorrow if the game's not over.

[ArcAngel9]

Lol, I hope you're not scum all along and fooling us around.
My logic is simple, What if we are right about having two scums around? If it is true, one miss lynch means and mafia can make successful night kill the game is over. Think about it!!

[sword_of_omens]

I'd rather not "No Lynch" as most likely we will still be stuck with the same who do we lynch tomorrow problem (as i doubt scum would want to kill D3f or Fitz tonight if they are both town) just in the hopes that on a best case scenario town-d3f absorbs a kill...
At least with a lynch we can definitely rule one of them out..(assuming it's solo scum)

still not sure, though...from a safety point of view it still might make sense to lynch Fitz first...if D3f does happen to be town then he might still absornb the NK... the problem i have is D3f's lack of, well...everything...he doesn't even seem to care and doesn't bother to give any solid reads or thoughts, or any meaningful participation..

[qwints]

Scenarios:

1 remaining scum

I'm convinced that lynching def and HF results in a win.

Plessy = town

1) scum claiming macho is stupid given that we've got two claimed protective roles
2) Plessy's interactions with Philhammon surrounding the counterclaim

Sword = town

1) Main impetus behind the mhork lynch
2) Only reasonable explanation we've had for ztife death

AA = town
1) Counterclaimed by scum
2) No night kill when protected

qwints = town
1) Actions on mhork and phil wagons
2) no night kill when claimed protection

2 remaining scum

Only possibilities per plessie:

[3a] qwintz and arcangel are scum; or

[3b] qwints and fitz are scum.

I have the benefit of knowing these aren't true, but y'all should consider whether either is likely enough to justify no-lynching.

1 mafia and 1 sk

We might as well call this the "sword's actually a serial killer scenario."

This is unlikely because

1) It requires no kills or identical targets on 3 of 4 nights
2) Sword's claim makes him extremely vulnerable. Scum know that he's the 3rd party if there is one.

And that is why I want to lynch Def or Fitz today.

[sword_of_omens]

Qwints, if he is the doctor he claims to be, can do what we need.

Then again, if you want to keep a rather useless at Day but helpful by Night town-member, feel free to keep me in.

ugh...This post really bothers me....
Qwintz claimed X-shot..so who's to say he isn't used up...
also wouldn't it be wiser to have, say 2 people possibly protecting town?
This makes me think that you really have not given thought to your "ability" as you do not seem to have the best interest for town... again..stating that you are useless doesn't help...at least state your opinions, (if you are town) try to help us out here as sitting back and doing nothing doesn't help anyone but scum.

[D3f3nd3r]

Oh. I was thinking about breadcrumbing, but I really had no ideas how to do it without people picking it up right then and there.

Also, I'm pretty sure there is only one scum left; Day 2 would have been MyLo if so and that being in the setup doesn't seem right.

[havingfitz]

Zzzzzzzz

Little over 2 days left.... tick tock.

[sword_of_omens]

Hey Fitzy-poo...
i noticed you /replaced in to a game over in the Replacement Thread which kind of voids your in/ n /out argument….unless you just ended another game?

[havingfitz]

I don't care how many games I have that I'm dead in...hence my offer to replace into a game after my lynch in here D4. I do however try to not be alive in more than 4 games. And the game you reference above makes 3. I'm also currently in the open queue for a game that would be my 4th.

So no voidage.

Fitzy-poo?

[qwints]

Plessy and sword, what are you waiting for? Do either of you think scum is likely to be outside of HF and D3f?

[sword_of_omens]

no, but that doesn't mean it isn't so...
Still trying to figure out if it's better to lynch Fitz first...

[sword_of_omens]

Fitzy-poo?

lol...like that, did you?

[havingfitz]

That would be just mean. I already had to suffer through a lynching once. D3f doesn't deserve to continue getting passes.

And aside from the fact (imo) there wasn't a good reason to lynch me previously...I feel my behavior just prior to and after my lynch strongly supports the position that I'm town and had no knowledge of my impending reprieve.

Pedit. no

[sword_of_omens]

alright ...after thinking this out some more...
the only other team up if there are 2 scum left would be D3f and Plessie (or D3f and me) and i know i am town..
it could explain the the governor on Fitz if he is town...and possibly the Janitor on Ruff...but that's still stretching it...so yeh, it probably is solo scum...

i'm willing to hammer D3f...

anybody else want to chime in before i do?

[D3f3nd3r]

Fine, lynch me. Better lynch someone useless than someone who people care about.

[sword_of_omens]

So you are saying that you don't think Fitz is scum?

Who is scum then, D3f?