Mini 659: The Neighborhood- Game over on Day 6

[fhqwhgads]

@ fhq: Read the phrase I bolded and tell me what you meant by that.

Sure, the answer is quite simple, it's a mistranslation, or rather, a direct translation from a common Afrikaans (my first language) saying.

The saying goes something like: "Dit was 'n slegte skuif van jou kant af." Which quite literally means "It was a bad move from your side."

OK, all 3 people who could conceivably be a parter if DR was scum have posted since my vote for fhq last night (ythill, rash and cry). None of them have made any attempt to vote for fhq. I have moved from 95% to 99% sure of fhq being scum.

I find you have double standards here sir. Both rash and crywolf have said they would vote before day's end. Crywolf even said she'd vote me. It's fine if DR waits until deadline to drop game-changing information, but you hold it against people who want to wait till deadline to vote at LYLO? Seriously? That's your argument? Why not try to build a case based on facts against me? Other than it's obv-scum to be against our second no-lynch.

[Ythill]

Sure, the answer is quite simple, it's a mistranslation, or rather, a direct translation from a common Afrikaans (my first language) saying.

The saying goes something like: "Dit was 'n slegte skuif van jou kant af." Which quite literally means "It was a bad move from your side."

Wasn't expecting

that

answer. You write English very well for a second language.

Anyway... here's how it seems like this is going to play out. Wolf will put fhq @ L-1. Elias will put DR @ L-1. Then Rash will get to choose the lynch. I don't like that outcome one bit.

Bionic, doesn't it bother you that our only confirmed non-mafia also suspects DR over fhq?

[bionicchop2]

Bionic, doesn't it bother you that our only confirmed non-mafia also suspects DR over fhq?

I am not sure why you are trying to persuade me. I thought it was pretty clear my vote isn't moving. You should work on people who might be on the fence.

fhq + ythill + rash = scum

That is my final answer.

fhq has been scummy all game. The watcher results provide the simplest explanation for why scum would target Tony - they knew he wouldn't be saved. Occam's razor points to my conclusion that DR is telling the truth despite delaying his response.

[Ythill]

I am not sure why you are trying to persuade me.

DR is scum. Wolf is scum. Rash is quite possibly scum and wouldn't listen to me anyway. You're the best shot, even if it's a long shot.

Besides, arguments are arguments. Maybe Rash isn't scum and he'll read what I've written and do the right thing.

[Ythill]

Just thought of something. Bionic, if you're town and you're now sure that Rash is scum, why are you

not

trying to persuade Elias? It would seem that, from your point of view, him voting fhq is the only way town can win.

[fhqwhgads]

How much time till deadline?

[bionicchop2]

Bionic, if you're town and you're now sure that Rash is scum, why are you

not

trying to persuade Elias?

Because Elias isn't around half the time and I am not just going to spout off in his direction when he isn't here to discuss. When he is active and posting (hopefully a few times today) I can have a conversation with him. Until then he can read what I have already written. I have already asked him to read both players in isolation. Until he does that, no conversation can be had.

Since both players have 2 votes on them and mine has been on there a long time, elias just needs to decide if I am scum or I am town. If I am scum, crywolf needs to be my partner (I held one of the hammers which could have ended the game on wolf-town). If he believes I am town, I really hopes he will follow me here.

[bionicchop2]

How much time till deadline?

Should be midnight and I believe that is EST. That would be 14 hours from now.

[gorckat]

How much time till deadline?

Should be midnight and I believe that is EST. That would be 14 hours from now.

13.5 hours at this point.

[bionicchop2]

mod

- requesting a friendly deadline reminder for Elias (and I guess Rash too).

[Rashiminos]

I'm well aware of the deadline, thank you.

[Rashiminos]

fhq + ythill + rash = scum

I was musing over bionic's statement here and thinking about how 3 of the 4 living vanillas being scum does not seem to fit how this game has played out in my experience. This led me to think about the groups of voters we have at the present.

DR and fhq are voting each other based on DR's night "evidence." At least one of them is scum for obvious reasons.

bionic and Ythill are have placed their votes among DR and fhq. More on this in just a little bit.

This leaves crywolf, Elias, and myself who are not voting for one of DR/fhq. Now if 2 of us are scum, then it would seem that the townie of the trio would not be able to force a lynch, hence we would have lost already. For the sake of not having bionic/Ythill second-guess themselves, I think we can discount that 2 of us are scum, which means it would be practical to consider that at most one of us is scum, and therefore at least 1 of bionic/Ythill is scum, excepting the unlikely circumstance that DR is bussing his partner.

Simplified:

1 scum in {Dead Rikimaru, fhqwhgads}
1 scum in {bionic, Ythill}
1 scum in {crywolf20084, Elias the Thief, Rashiminos}

That should flesh out some of the relations we'll be looking at when we lynch scum today. Now for some more reading.

[Rashiminos]

A look at fhq:

Post 0: (That other game went swimmingly didn't it?)
Post 1: Cites wolf's "cop"-logic error. (save) IGMEOYs the miller
2: Comment to miller about the miller (null)
3: Ignorance (?) about the miller
4: Uses miller quote to FoS wolf (that's interesting, or bandwagony), then votes Lowell
5: Accuses Lowell of being too macho, but unvotes Lowell
6: Chaos happens because wolf did not understand "QFT"
7: crywolf is new, Lowell has a poor meta
8: asks Lowell a question about wolf
9: Lowell's meta still poor, wolf needs to explain herself
10: Non-serious comment
11: likes Oman, Lowell must claim, crywolf lurks, response to Ythill
12: Darox conundrum is null, Lowell is scummy despite meta
13: Lowell's votes suck
14: asks Darox about Lowell's scumminess or poor meta
15: Darox's unvote (as opposed to others?) is fishy
16:

The case against me is highly amusing.

Does anyone have something other than that I don't want to see Lowell dead right away but I do want him to say more?

Was that the case?

I thought the case was that you seemed to think his play style is scummy, yet refused to remove your vote at L-1.

Now that he is at L-1 again, you suddenly do remove the vote, contradicting your previous argument of 'what is wrong with being at L-1'?

Also, this isn't the first time in this game that Lowell is it L-1. What makes you think the strategy is going to make him talk this time?

Funny how fhq's post 16 outclasses the day 2 cases against Darox.
17: Darox unvote is still scummy
18: Lowell is uncooperative
19: Rash called out fhq for not explaining fhq's reaction to Darox well enough, fhq admitted it was lacking (Ythill should remember this)
20: Lowell's meta is no longer an excuse, Darox defense is a joke, Lowell Lynch supporter
21: lynch better than no-lynch (yep, look at day 3 too), talks about majority voting (Rashiminos reminds himself to make a comment.)
22:

No, it is scummy to support a lynch because you think it's the only one that will be supported.

Nice piece of statement twisting there yourself. I believe I have made my point (by the way, my 'statement twisting' question was just a question. I never implied that is what you meant. I just asked it to illustrate why I made the point at all).

Deja vu +2.

23: Meta is no excuse (I'd have to disagree, but that's a thread topic by itself.)
24: votes Darox since Lowell is quiet, Darox is still a joke
25: Darox wanted Lowell to claim, but dismissed the lynch threat behind it, this oddity makes Darox scummy
26: pro-semantics, esp. "Claim or Die" [:)]
27: I'd be lynching Lowell if he were here, but Darox is fine.
28: Lowell must claim, or die.
29: ditto
30: Lack of claim means dead Lowell (Good work).
31: Dang, didn't hammer.

So ends day 1.

There are connections to wolf, and not so much to other living players. Some minor things in both directions, nothing to base a decision on.

As for following the majority versus reaching a majority, I feel it's better if everyone can find a separate reason to believe someone is scummy, rather than throwing their vote to someone else's cause, trusting that someone else. Better that all roads lead to the scum's front door rather than for everyone to follow one scumtrail to a dead end.

An installment of Oman's shorter day 1 is upcoming.

[Rashiminos]

Westbrook said practically nothing.

So Oman is key, because while DR and Oman might have different playstyles, a common factor of scumminess or townieness would still permeate their posts.

0: miller talk, Ythill is a liar!, makes some jokes
1: talks with Ythill again
2: wolf's cop direct is well-intentioned (?), commends Ythill, claims should not be taken for granted, Lowell is an OMGUSy hypocritical liar: VOTE!!!!!, bionic: be more emotional please
3: I'm lurking (heh...)
4: explains well-intentioned comment, more banter with Ythill, gloats at bionic, calls Tony a coward, Tommy is too trusting, cases on Darox suck
5: Lowell must die, or claim.
6: Fun.
7: Tony is still a coward, Oman is still a jerk, tommy/lowell aren't scumpartners (Hmmm..., scummy?), IGMEOY fhq, iamausername finds me scummy, hammers are good, Ythill is wagon-dodging, Darox needs to be more serious, Lowell is a village idiot, case on darox is weak, more gloating at bionic, crywolf "scumtells" are also newbishness
8: kill lowell
9: kill lowell, save wolf for another day
10: wolf's voting is wishy-washy, @Darox: let lowell catch his breath, then kill him
11: (Too lazy to look up context).
12: Lowell's TLDR post is scummy, KILL HIM!
13: OMG GUYZ, I'M LYNCHER, UNFUNNY JOKE HERE!
14: duh
15: tony's igmeoy on rash is bad
16: Tony's excuses are lame
17: Use better reasoning, Tony
18: still grilling tony

So ends day 1.

There are connections with wolf, ythill, and bionic, and a couple of comments are worth a closer look (post 7, later defense of Darox).

[Rashiminos]

EBWOP: Most of day 1 is conveniently irrelevant to the present, and can remain buried, but the revisit and remembrance certainly has me looking at DR for Oman's sake.

[Rashiminos]

Yeah, and I feel like we should have a cop with a miller. This mod is tricky.

The

why not

is important because you're hinging an awful lot on set-up speculation...

and basing that speculation on beliefs that you have not expounded upon.

Someone is covering his rear...

[fhqwhgads]

4 comments:

1) I like rash's thorough analysis. I think everyone should take a look at it seriously. I say this, not knowing whether he's gonna vote me or not.

2) Elias, we REALLY need some content (or at least a stance) from you.

3) I do realise my early game hasn't been strong. I've had my ups and downs. I'm NOT using this as an excuse. If my inconsistent play is going to make me look scummier than Oman/DR, then I take full responsibility for being a liability and ultimately losing the game for town.

4) Unfortunately, due to it being almost 00:00 here, I'm going to bed soon. This means I probably will be waking up to see if I'm dead or alive. It is unfortunate, since Elias hasn't made comments yet (and if he want's my input, I'm not going to be here). Rash's analysis is also starting only now. I would have liked to follow it while he was posting.

Meh, I'll see you on the other side.

(I might look in if I'm still awake or can't sleep)

[Rashiminos]

Rash is currently trying to work out how the bionic non-vote on crywolf yesterday relates to the DR-fhq stuff today, and trying to clarify the flaw he thinks he sees throws a moneky-wrench into an otherwise obvious action.

[bionicchop2]

Rash is currently trying to work out how the bionic non-vote on crywolf yesterday relates to the DR-fhq stuff today, and trying to clarify the flaw he thinks he sees throws a moneky-wrench into an otherwise obvious action.

crywolf-scum doesn't exist without DR-scum with the minor exception of fhq being a scum visiting scum power.

bionic-scum does not exist without crywolf-scum.

If anybody can point out reasons this is false, please do.

[Rashiminos]

Alright, if crywolf is town, then bionic and Elias are not scum (or missed a chance to win D3), leaving DR or a vanilla to be the 4th townie.
If crywolf is scum, then DR's information could barely hold less water.

The hiccup comes down to two things. A) Is there a practical reason to believe fhq-scum had a purpose to targetting wolf-scum with DR watching as town? B) Is DR-scum gambitting with fhq-scum as bait? (Just vote DR, duh).

If crywolf-is town, then bionic-town punctures the 3/4 vanilla are scum argument for 3 players, and elias is the game decider, since the vanillas would just vote DR. If wolf is scum, then the 3/4 vanilla argument is toast.

Conclusion: Outside of a fhq/wolf scumming it up interaction, DR's story is just wrong. Kill DR.

Now if only people decided to argue these points and not who killed Tony for what WIFOM.

##Unvote: Ythill
##Vote: Dead Rikimaru

[Rashiminos]

EBWOP: bionic found a shorter way of saying it

[crywolf20084]

I was hoping to wait a little bit longer but my friend called and we're going out to eat prior to going to go see Twilight, I have done my final review and have seen the things about Oman that I failed to notice, and I do find scummy, and combine with that the claim, which I now believe is false, I am going to:

Vote: Dead Rikimaru.

[Rashiminos]

^
|

Crywolf's first post of the day. It's vague. It discusses her waiting. It includes a hammer wrapped in a package with a cute little bow. It gives me goosebumps, that is all.

[Rashiminos]

EBWOP: Today being the 20th of November in that statement.

[crywolf20084]

I was reading all day today. Sorry. I had basically wrapped up my thoughts for today(Day four) yesterday (the 19th). And in my reading I found that I didn't like him. I'll explain why i did this in D5, and if he does turn up town(which I highly doubt), I'll post my reasonings in post-game. Now I must actually go.