Mini 1469: Rage (Game Over)

[Cabd]

I would have lost my crap.

Way ahead of you there, bud.

[Saki]

I honestly expected CD and surviva to kill me once I jumped on the mtc wagon

lol

but best replacement ever?
replaces in
doesnt actually read
claim scum
win as scum

[surviva316]

I was literally shaking my fist at the screen when CD confessed scum. Then NS went and blew all his Town credibility by following along. I thought there was no way the scum team was going to pull this off.

To be fair, the fact that Morph was actually the SK made it so that the mafia had it in the bag. So long as Morph didn't shoot me N3 (I have no idea why he would; his options would basically be to shoot scum to avoid a 2-1-1 scenario on D4 [which would be NSin], or to shoot town [which would be Shamrock/Kalimar because they're both at least as likely to be town and at least as powerful as me]). Assuming Morph is smart enough to shoot NSin, we'd shoot Morph, and it would be Kalimar, Shamrock, Naomi and me on D4. At the risk of sounding cocky, I put it at very close to 0% that I was going to get myself lynched on the final day and have all the confidence in the world that the town would much much sooner lynch Naomi than me.

Then, obv, I'd NK Shamrock, no lynch D5 and NK Kalimar for the win.

My only concern was that we were wrong on our read that Morph was SK, meaning that SK woulda gotten two more NKs, which woulda put our team at a much higher risk.

[fferyllt]

We were planning to commute on night 3. We figured the missing kill would add some weight to the possibility of the joat kill/hide scenario.

[surviva316]

In other words, Shamrock was probably right when he said, "If it's 3-1-9, we're screwed anyway," so maybe we're being too hard on Naomi. Granted, I still think that even in 2-1-10 it's better to kill the confirmed scum than risking that the scum is right about the SK, but it's close enough that it's no ROFLbad.

[Saki]

We were planning to commute on night 3. We figured the missing kill would add some weight to the possibility of the joat kill/hide scenario.

oh shit
I would've fell for that

[surviva316]

Ah yes, forgot about the possibility of bulletproof. NSin probably would have pointed that out/I would have remembered, and we would have been in an interesting spot. Probably still woulda gone with shooting you though, since all of the other options have at least as bad downsides: shooting Shamrock likely would have been double kill at least as often as shooting Morph would have missed; Kalimar would be protected almost always; shooting Naomi would be terrible. So yeah, prolly woulda just gone with our best kill option (you) and crossed our fingers.

D4 of me, Morph, Naomi, Shamrock, Kalimar would have been fun. Even then, though, surely town and scum would unite and kill the SK suspect, so you woulda had an uphill battle arguing for me/Shamrock/Naomi. Damn, that woulda been fun, I wish that happened.

Obv, if I could get you lynched on D4, then D5 would be a bench trial with Shamrock residing over me v Naomi, and again, I feel confident about winning that.

[Shamrock]

Actually I am 10000% sure I would have lynched you over naomi.

[fferyllt]

One thing I really thought was terrible was the lynch of TR. I should have argued a hell of a lot harder against that lynch. And tbh my already shaky town read of serra took a serious hit after I meta'd Elyse and realized serra wasn't arguing against that lynch nearly hard enough. I was probably the only person in the game that had doubts about serra-town, though.
Given the amount of non-town vote happening, it's not too surprising that mislynches happened both days, though.

[surviva316]

Actually I am 10000% sure I would have lynched you over naomi.

Hm, fair enough. I would have thought that the reasons to townread me (telling Cheery to go fuck himself all of D3, not hesitating at all to flip my read on you once your claim seemed legit, and [to a lesser extent] trying to bandwagon Yates D2 + not hesitating to for a second to bus NSin on D3) would have trumped the reasons to townread Naomi (she claimed VT on day one, too dumb for scum), but I guess if you woulda lynched me, then the village did in fact still stand a very very real chance.

[Shamrock]

Nah, I think we were pretty much screwed as soon as we ended up in a 3:3:1.

I really don't think town had enough power to counter the number of scum in this game but whatever, I'm all sour grapes over here.

[Kalimar]

I was thinking about how to swing this around. Basically, Town needed some quite specific conditions to occur to win in the 3-1-9 setup and the idealistic part of me was hoping it wasn't that setup, but the realistic side of me was saying it was. A lot of the nightkill permutations I thought of led to 1-1-2 which was basically auto-loss for Town, and I was unsuccessfully trying to think of a way to get to 1-1-3.

I think I woke up too late - my day two play was passive and unhelpful*. I was trying to be more active than I usually am to be more 'useful' but I think I ended up being less useful than normal. Going along with the TR lynch was silly when I had bigger scum-reads at that point (my gut was leaping around telling me not to lynch TR and I ignored it...). Being the IC influenced my play negatively somehow, I think. I don't think my day three day was so bad, but it was almost a waste of time at that point...

Scum-wise, I had Cheery Dog and NSin down (and morph, I suppose), but not so much surviva. Even though surviva dropped a few objective scum tells I was focused on other people and not him so much. I only (properly) read one of his walls and I remember mentally commenting that it hadn't said a lot for being so long, but I never really did anything with that observation or went back to read for more. I can think of at least three things that bugged me from him when I read them, and retrospectively it seems a bit silly I didn't do anything with it. I thought the effort was good and that was mainly what led to a Town-read. And it was good effort, just not Town.

I really wanted to think Naomi was scum but there were things that didn't make sense with her being scum, which is why I couldn't get past the 2-1-10 thing entirely given I hadn't probed my surviva slight town-read enough then.

I somewhat wish that had been a two-shot vig or something instead of an SK and we could have had a 'normal' LyLo. I don't really like the "multi-ball" type setups conceptually because of the swingy element -- here, it swung against us. But, GuyInFreezer, thanks for being an active mod!

-

* though, I wasn't the only one. I guess the adage that Town apathy kills Towns was right - a bit more aggressive play from a couple of the Townies could have changed the game inexorably on day two.

[serrapaladin]

13p games with an sk are extremely hard to balance. 1-shot cop and 1-shot tracker just isn't enough town investigative power to deal with 4 scum. Interestingly, if you have a "typical" 3/13 or 2/9 scum, adding an sk for a VT doesn't change the scum win chance much at all, but really screws over town. If you have a setup that's more or less balanced as 3:10, that same setup is more or less balanced as 1:3:9 if scum loses their ability to night kill, but horrendously unbalanced if scum keeps their kill.

The big problem I had was that I had reads I couldn't build cases around. I don't think I could have gotten Yates/morph/Cheery lynched had I tried. I should have argued against the TR lynch, but had no one to substitute, given I had copped Naomi. Incidentally, that was another problem. I think my complete flip on reading Naomi was already quite obvious, but I had no idea how to crumb that my joat had a cop, and that I got an inno on Naomi. Fery, did you guys figure out I had copped Naomi?

Not lynching claimed scum, regardless of setup spec, is really unforgivable. That being said, 2 mislynches shouldn't be able to doom the town, but I guess that's the swinginess of multiball.

The modding was excellent, thanks GiF!

[Cabd]

Fery, did you guys figure out I had copped Naomi?

No but she was obviously just really dumb town once D2 hit.

[fferyllt]

13p games with an sk are extremely hard to balance. 1-shot cop and 1-shot tracker just isn't enough town investigative power to deal with 4 scum. Interestingly, if you have a "typical" 3/13 or 2/9 scum, adding an sk for a VT doesn't change the scum win chance much at all, but really screws over town. If you have a setup that's more or less balanced as 3:10, that same setup is more or less balanced as 1:3:9 if scum loses their ability to night kill, but horrendously unbalanced if scum keeps their kill.

The big problem I had was that I had reads I couldn't build cases around. I don't think I could have gotten Yates/morph/Cheery lynched had I tried. I should have argued against the TR lynch, but had no one to substitute, given I had copped Naomi. Incidentally, that was another problem. I think my complete flip on reading Naomi was already quite obvious, but I had no idea how to crumb that my joat had a cop, and that I got an inno on Naomi. Fery, did you guys figure out I had copped Naomi?

No we didn't. I thought she was claiming scum at the beginning of day 2 with her wtf why aren't we at LYLO post.

It's probably more a reflection on how screwed up my towndar sometimes gets when I'm 3rd party, but you worried me from nearly your first post. I thought the way you went after me on day 1 looked opportunistic. I talked myself into a town read several times, but it kept shaking loose, mostly because you weren't pushing lynches. Like me, you were mostly pulling away from lynching on-the-surface questionable people rather than going after your scumreads. My scumreads were pretty much shit.

I am terrible at reading Cheery and I hate mislynching, which makes me reluctant to go after him. If you had gone after him more strongly, I would have voted with you. I was not likely to vote Yates, though.

Not lynching claimed scum, regardless of setup spec, is really unforgivable. That being said, 2 mislynches shouldn't be able to doom the town, but I guess that's the swinginess of multiball.

Day 3 of this game is going into my wtf town scrapbook.

The modding was excellent, thanks GiF!

I agree!

[Shamrock]

Hey, Day 3 was wtfnaomi, not wtftown, all three of the other morph votes were from the scum team.

[fferyllt]

Hey, Day 3 was wtfnaomi, not wtftown, all three of the other morph votes were from the scum team.

True.

I take that back about RageTown as a whole.

[Cabd]

wtfnaomi

Basically my entire thoughts about that slot from the start.

[Cabd]

For the record, I subbed into Ffery's slot because her other head of noeffinclue ditched her, and she trusted me to play a decent scumgame after AMOL. That being said, the amount of apathy her and I had for this game was rather high.

[fferyllt]

True. This game was kinda soul-draining.

I don't think I'm cut out for the mini normal queue.

[GuyInFreezer]

Fery you can't blame apathy for your loss and you know why

[Saki]

Stop feeling so bad...

Oh well I guess I don't belong here.

[Magua]

> Mafia claims Mafia in lylo situation

> town lynches someone else

[Cabd]

> Mafia claims Mafia in lylo situation

> town lynches someone else

Correction. NAOMI lynches someone else.

[Magua]

Hey, Day 3 was wtfnaomi, not wtftown, all three of the other morph votes were from the scum team.

Number of town voting Mafia at the end of the Day: 0

Number of town voting scum at the end of the Day: 1 (Naomi)

Yeah, Naomi is the only Town voting Morph, but AT LEAST SHE'S VOTING SOMEONE.