Mini 1326: Mansion Mafia (Game Over)

[ICEninja]

Considering Gooner's previous comment, I wouldn't be at all surprised if Scum was 2 goons with day talk. Would that be balanced against tracker + doc?

I really need to learn more about setup balance, for someone with over 20 games I should probably be more knowledgeable about this stuff.

[ICEninja]

Also something to note, if I was scum with Gooner it would be ludicrous for us to try to bus each other on the onset of the day. Before you speculating on this, it would have been incredibly obvious that if town believes one of us is a power role (hypothetically speaking of course, as I know I am) the other is pretty much confirmed town and MUST die to the night kill (especially me, as I've got the track). Should we both be scum and bus each other, then it would draw a huge amount of suspicion upon ourselves when the survivor lives the night.

Obviously now that you've brought this hypothetical possibility to light we could pull it off, but not before. That isn't really a feasible possibility.

[Rainbowdash]

Considering Gooner's previous comment, I wouldn't be at all surprised if Scum was 2 goons with day talk. Would that be balanced against tracker + doc?

I really need to learn more about setup balance, for someone with over 20 games I should probably be more knowledgeable about this stuff.

*snicker*

Thats so unbalanced its not even funny. If you are town like you claim, scum need at LEAST one active PR. Literally the only way Equinox is scum if you are town is... no way as I think about it because I was about to say ninja but your track shut that down pretty quickly as nothing else balances.

So if you are town its Gooner+Hikari and nothing else.

My problem with Gooner at this point is that you got protected... which makes zero sense to me as there is ZERO way he should have seen you as town after that lynch.

You getting a result scares me just as much, I ALMOST really want to say you are both BSing us here and you are the team because I can easily see a doc vs goon/weak role (x-shot RC/track) being the setup.

Lets think more though...

I really think the only logical pairings at this point are

Gooner-Ice
Ice-Hikari
Ice-Equinox

I lean heavily heavily to the first out of those as well.

Buttttt.... my problem is while im more confident in Gooner-scum, he only works with Ice. But im a WHOLE lot more confident in Gooner-scum.

[ICEninja]

Thats so unbalanced its not even funny.

Fair enough, I'll take your word for this, especially if Equinox confirms.

If you are town like you claim, scum need at LEAST one active PR.

Would it then make sense that Hiraki is a one shot or every other night or something RB/RC/tracker (probably not tracker, since town has one) and simply sent in the kill for night 2?
Interesting. You say this:

So if you are town its Gooner+Hikari and nothing else.

But then don't list that in your logical pairings. Why does it not make sense that the scum team is Gooner/Hiraki? It definitely seems the most likely to me. I didn't see anything in your post that would exclude that possibility.

Also, you're right I hadn't even really thought much about why Gooner would have protected me. If he is indeed town (obviously he isn't, but for the sake of from his point of view he is) then he couldn't possibly see me as town, and the only reason he'd protect me is if he thought I really was a power role. Obviously scum knows I am indeed a power role, and would fake a doc protect on the real power role, right?

Either tonight or tomorrow I'll go through both of Hiraki's and Rainbowdash's ISO in some depth (probably not a HUGE amount of effort being that one way or another I'll be dead before the decision to lynch one of them occurs) to offer what I can to the day 6 decision.

[Rainbowdash]

Interesting. You say this:

So if you are town its Gooner+Hikari and nothing else.

But then don't list that in your logical pairings. Why does it not make sense that the scum team is Gooner/Hiraki? It definitely seems the most likely to me. I didn't see anything in your post that would exclude that possibility.

I never excluded it explicitly (but it makes little to no sense)... but im purposly making it so if you are scum and I get Gooner lynched first, you cant touch Equinox.

Sometimes playing preventative is the best way to actually get the win.

[ICEninja]

Well if you're town (which seems fairly likely at this point) then I won't fault your paranoia, considering how whacky this game has played out. Especially since I'd expect Rainbowscum to follow the easy path and declare Gooner/Hiraki the scum team, lynch your buddy, then secure an easy win for day 6. Rainbowscum calling me scum and trying to get a mislynch on me would be more difficult, and this is a bit late in the game to be playing gambits when you're ahead.

So I suppose if scum lets me live tonight I'll have to do my best to prove who the real final scum is. And I genuinely hope it's not you, because you'd be playing even more of a whacky game, and God damnit scum has screwed with my head enough this game.

[Gooner]

Interesting. The safe play for Goonerscum would have been to kill Rainbow last night, as Majiffy expressed a preference of lynching myself over Gooner, and Rainbowdash expressed the opposite towards the end of the day.

Either scum killed Majiffy to bring up this exact point to frame me, or Rainbow is actually the last scum. Then again if Rainbow is the last scum I think they would have killed Equinox instead. No, I think they did this to frame me. Of course ICE-scum would want to kill Majiffy, right?

As for the saving Hiraki point, I expressed quite a few times yesterday that I would have lynched Hiraki. He just wasn't my preference, and I expressed why.

Ok, so you think that I would have taken such a massive risk in LyLo? Really? There's no reason for scum Gooner to kill the player whose support he could count on today. In LyLo, you keep alive the players who are on your side.

And conveniently Hiraki is in second place in your lynch votes.... again. Just as he was second yesterday. A scum tactic is to announce suspicion of your scumbuddy without ever voting on them.

Role blocker AND day talk? That seems pretty far fetched to me. And the possibility of a Godfather? This almost seems like a bit of a scum slip to me, as throwing out the comment about there probably being both a role blocker (there HAS to be one in order for Gooner's story to make sense) but throwing in the daytalk as well? That makes me think scum indeed has day talk and he included that ability to add some truth to his argument.

Well, I know that there's a Role-Blocker because he's been blocking me all this time and, because we have a maximum of 2 scum, it makes sense that Daytalk is used to balance out the fact that there are only 2 scum.

By the way, why is Equinox a cleared townie?

[Gooner]

Considering Gooner's previous comment, I wouldn't be at all surprised if Scum was 2 goons with day talk. Would that be balanced against tracker + doc?

I really need to learn more about setup balance, for someone with over 20 games I should probably be more knowledgeable about this stuff.

Town has:
Doctor and JOAT

2 powerful roles.

There are 2 scum.

To balance that out they need a power role, a Role-Blocker, and something else, probably Daytalk.

Now, explain ICE's set-up to me:
Doctor
Tracker

Against 2 goons? In this scenario if the scum had a RB why wouldn't they block ICE? What do the scum have to balance this out? Daytalk alone does not seem enough to me. So, I repeat, what else do the scum have in this scenario?

[Gooner]

My problem with Gooner at this point is that you got protected... which makes zero sense to me as there is ZERO way he should have seen you as town after that lynch.

This was one of the possibilities which I was running through my head last night:
Town:
Doc
JOAT
Tracker

Scum:
RB
RC/Watcher/Tracker
Daytalk

That seemed fairly balanced to me as a possibility and logic dictated that if ICE was town then he ws likely to be the kill.

Anyway, that's just what I was thinking.

[Rainbowdash]

I would be stunned to find two active scum PRs...

I am however back to being paranoid over Hikari because of the early thing he said which sounded like daytalk, and now both Ice/Gooner are assuming daytalk which makes me twitchy as hay.

I dont know and I dont think im going to figure this out anytime soon.

Gut just is telling me to vote Gooner at this point more than anything else. Now that we know there are only two scum, him staying alive makes me all that much more suspicious, especially as I have been defending him this entire time.

Mafia JOAT maybe? I dunno... my biggest problem here is what is going on with the RB. Claiming JOAT who RBed is very odd, but it almost suggests there is no scum RB (as Ice WOULD have been blocked)

Ick. I dunno.

Cool part is there is no ninja, so if we lynch Gooner-scum, they have to kill Ice for us or its a 1v1 to end it.

Actually... planning ahead some

@Ice - If we lynch Gooner-scum you arent tracking Equinox. Just incase you would actually DO that as town, im not letting you. If you track Equinox and I am alive, I will vote you instantly without listening to anything you say.

[Gooner]

Well, that's what I was thinking at the time.

And Rainbowdash, don't go with your gut in LyLo. Use your logic instead.

[Hiraki]

Can we review the actions of both PRs from N1 to today?

[ICEninja]

We don't know who soras protected any night, and they were misses every night.

For me:
Night 1: tracked Equinox to nowhere (goon or not scum)
Night 2: tracked Gooner to nowhere (goon who didn't send in kill, implies no active PR)
Night 3: tracked soras to Gooner, who died that night. Would have confirmed him as doctor had he lived.
Night 4: tracked Gooner to Majiffy (goon who DID send in kill, obviously to protect buddy)

Gooner (what he claimed, anyway):
Night 1: role blocked PoPP - claimed to be RBed, failed.
Night 2: shot FakeGof - claimed to be RBed, failed.
Night 3: investigated soras - claimed to be RBed, failed.
Night 4: protected ICE - claimed to be RBed I think? I don't exactly recall him saying it failed.

If I'm incorrect about any of the actions, let me know.

Ok, so you think that I would have taken such a massive risk in LyLo?

The kill, admittingly, confused me a little after I thought about it. It definitely doesn't seem like the time for scum to be playing gambits, but it could very well have been something done to insure scum's victory on day 6. Your kills so far have been extremely confusing, and I'm beginning to believe that scum is killing with the intent to either frame others or cause WIFOM arguments. Or possibly just done at random to make yourself impossible to kill. As someone pointed out, "scum love to do things scum would NEVER do".

If I hadn't tracked you, this point would probably give me pause, but considering how the kills have been so far it probably still wouldn't matter in the long run even if I didn't track you.

And conveniently Hiraki is in second place in your lynch votes.... again.

Well duh he's going to be second place in my lynch preference

after the person who I tracked to a dead body

. Am I supposed to lynch him instead of you? I mean, if there's traction to do so with town I could read up on him and knowing full well what your flip will be today I could theoretically just pretend today is day 6 and try to lynch your buddy, but honestly I'd prefer to kill you today, and take the night kill tonight to clear Equinox. If we don't lynch you today then you'd kill Equinox instead of me.

Well, I know that there's a Role-Blocker because he's been blocking me all this time and, because we have a maximum of 2 scum, it makes sense that Daytalk is used to balance out the fact that there are only 2 scum.

Just day talk without the role blocker makes perfect sense (at least in my eyes, like I said I'm not a balance expert and Rainbow disagreed) as a balanced setup, but both day talk AND a role blocker seems stupidly town sided. Anyways, I wasn't role blocked last night and I tracked you o Majiffy so I know for a fact that there isn't a role blocker.

By the way, why is Equinox a cleared townie?

Because I tracked her nowhere night 1, and you nowhere night 2. The only way for her to be scum is if you sent in the kill night 1, she sent in the kill night 2, and you sent in the kill night 4. Which doesn't make sense at ALL.

Mafia JOAT maybe?

I hadn't considered this. I suppose it's theoretically possible that mafia has something like a one shot tracker, one shot role blocker, one shot role cop or something. That would suggest that Gooner would have used one of them night 2 though, which he didn't. Unless he role blocked PoPP just as he said, and decided to hold on to his other powers until later on. Actually now that I think about it, Gooner knowing there is only 2 scum would have known that town was going to have a weaker setup but not know it. He probably knew full well that he'd be able to escape suspicion for quite some time.

If we lynch Gooner-scum you arent tracking Equinox.

I'm tracking you tonight. Or Hiraki. I'm not saying which, because I don't want scum to not send in a kill and try to fool me. But yes, I may not have been the best tracker so far this game I'm not stupid.

Sorry, no time to preview this post. I apologize if there are errors.

[chauchaudotcom]

I need to stop being busy =[

Voting

Gooner (1) - ICEninja
ICEninja(1) - Gooner

Not Voting

Equinox, Hiraki, RainbowDash

With 5 alive, it takes 3 to lynch.

Deadline is in 9 days. Tuesday, June 26, 2012 at 10:00pm PST.

[/color]

[Rainbowdash]

The biggest thing I keep looping back to is what happened after Gooner claimed that he was going to shoot FG. Why does scum, if Gooner is town, not let that shot come through?

In addition to that, how does a two player scumteam actually leave Gooner alive, even if they do constantly block them if they even can? Its just not logical. I get that scum are not always going to be logical, but why would you do both of those things?

[Gooner]

The biggest thing I keep looping back to is what happened after Gooner claimed that he was going to shoot FG. Why does scum, if Gooner is town, not let that shot come through?

In addition to that, how does a two player scumteam actually leave Gooner alive, even if they do constantly block them if they even can? Its just not logical. I get that scum are not always going to be logical, but why would you do both of those things?

1. I didn't actually shout "I'm shooting FG" from the rooftops. It was likely that I would do so but definitely not certain.
2. It means that I can't be a confirmed townie and we have this scenario where people are threatening to lynch me.

[Gooner]

Gooner (what he claimed, anyway):
Night 1: role blocked PoPP - claimed to be RBed, failed.
Night 2: shot FakeGof - claimed to be RBed, failed.
Night 3: investigated soras - claimed to be RBed, failed.
Night 4: protected ICE - claimed to be RBed I think? I don't exactly recall him saying it failed.

I don't know if my action succeeded or not. I presume I was blocked and it failed though.

Ok, so you think that I would have taken such a massive risk in LyLo?

The kill, admittingly, confused me a little after I thought about it. It definitely doesn't seem like the time for scum to be playing gambits, but it could very well have been something done to insure scum's victory on day 6. Your kills so far have been extremely confusing, and I'm beginning to believe that scum is killing with the intent to either frame others or cause WIFOM arguments. Or possibly just done at random to make yourself impossible to kill. As someone pointed out, "scum love to do things scum would NEVER do".

If I hadn't tracked you, this point would probably give me pause, but considering how the kills have been so far it probably still wouldn't matter in the long run even if I didn't track you.

Do you really think that today is the time to be playing gambits? Moreover, why on earth would I send myself to kill Majiffy in a town with a watcher when that kill was designed to help me to survive. It sort of defeats the point of me killing Majiffy in the first place as scum.

And conveniently Hiraki is in second place in your lynch votes.... again.

Well duh he's going to be second place in my lynch preference

after the person who I tracked to a dead body

. Am I supposed to lynch him instead of you? I mean, if there's traction to do so with town I could read up on him and knowing full well what your flip will be today I could theoretically just pretend today is day 6 and try to lynch your buddy, but honestly I'd prefer to kill you today, and take the night kill tonight to clear Equinox. If we don't lynch you today then you'd kill Equinox instead of me.

I was referring more to yesterday. You pushed the lynch on DCL instead of Hiraki. We know one was town. I'm pretty sure that the other one is scum.

Well, I know that there's a Role-Blocker because he's been blocking me all this time and, because we have a maximum of 2 scum, it makes sense that Daytalk is used to balance out the fact that there are only 2 scum.

Just day talk without the role blocker makes perfect sense (at least in my eyes, like I said I'm not a balance expert and Rainbow disagreed) as a balanced setup, but both day talk AND a role blocker seems stupidly town sided. Anyways, I wasn't role blocked last night and I tracked you o Majiffy so I know for a fact that there isn't a role blocker.

So, in your opinion the scenario is this:
Doctor
Tracker

Against a reduced number of scum with only Daytalk?

That doesn't seem balanced to me. Moreover, I know there is a Role-Blocker because he's been blocking me all this time.

By the way, why is Equinox a cleared townie?

Because I tracked her nowhere night 1, and you nowhere night 2. The only way for her to be scum is if you sent in the kill night 1, she sent in the kill night 2, and you sent in the kill night 4. Which doesn't make sense at ALL.

But you're scum so all of that is false.

If we lynch Gooner-scum you arent tracking Equinox.

I'm tracking you tonight. Or Hiraki. I'm not saying which, because I don't want scum to not send in a kill and try to fool me. But yes, I may not have been the best tracker so far this game I'm not stupid.

Sorry, no time to preview this post. I apologize if there are errors.

This conversation is pointless because if we lynch me today then there won't be a Night to worry about in the first place.

[Hiraki]

In addition to that, how does a two player scumteam actually leave Gooner alive, even if they do constantly block them if they even can? Its just not logical. I get that scum are not always going to be logical, but why would you do both of those things?

Couldn't you say the same for ICE?

[ICEninja]

I'm actually mistaken, Gooner didn't claim until day 2, and never claimed that his role block on pecanpie failed. THIS IS VERY IMPORTANT.

I don't know if my action succeeded or not. I presume I was blocked and it failed though.

I've played power roles and been role blocked before. The night results explicitly state that the night action failed.

Especially considering you sent in a night action on night 1 that succeeded (but did nothing, as role blocking a townie will not result in a "your night action failed" response, it will illicit no response) but being blocked while investigating a townie

absolutely will

result in a "your night action failed" response.

Ladies and gentleman of the jury, someone of Gooner's level of experience simply may not have ever been actually role blocked as a real PR before, and simply doesn't know what happens, and therefore doesn't know how to fake claim it. If you understand the point I'm making with this post, then this should be

proof beyond a shadow of doubt

that Gooner is indeed scum.

[Gooner]

I'm actually mistaken, Gooner didn't claim until day 2, and never claimed that his role block on pecanpie failed. THIS IS VERY IMPORTANT.

I don't know if my action succeeded or not. I presume I was blocked and it failed though.

I've played power roles and been role blocked before. The night results explicitly state that the night action failed.

Especially considering you sent in a night action on night 1 that succeeded (but did nothing, as role blocking a townie will not result in a "your night action failed" response, it will illicit no response) but being blocked while investigating a townie

absolutely will

result in a "your night action failed" response.

Ladies and gentleman of the jury, someone of Gooner's level of experience simply may not have ever been actually role blocked as a real PR before, and simply doesn't know what happens, and therefore doesn't know how to fake claim it. If you understand the point I'm making with this post, then this should be

proof beyond a shadow of doubt

that Gooner is indeed scum.

1. I was a Doctor. I wouldn't get a result automatically.
2. This means that it's more than possible that I wouldn't be told that my night action failed. Moreover, from my experience (albeit on another site) it can go either way. You can be told or not. Depends on the GMs preference. If you want to, ask the GM what he tells if you're role-blocked. In fact all of you ask the GM. Now.
3. I presume it succeeded because I presume did not know I was a PR yet and I would certainly be an odd choice for a role-block on Night 1.
4. I was not explicitly told that I was blocked on Nights 2 and 3 but because my night action failed the logical assumption to make is that I ws role-blocked.

By the way, another reason why I'm a townie. Do you remember when Equinox threatened to Day vig me? I claimed and I did not claim scum despite thinking that I was dead because I had been shot by Equinox.

[Gooner]

*I presume they did not know

That's how it should read.

[Rainbowdash]

In addition to that, how does a two player scumteam actually leave Gooner alive, even if they do constantly block them if they even can? Its just not logical. I get that scum are not always going to be logical, but why would you do both of those things?

Couldn't you say the same for ICE?

Its harder to say the same thing for Ice but it loops back to trying to figure out what just makes sense from a you-scum standpoint.

Playing purely from it, we look at a situation where no matter what Ice is, he really isnt a kill you can follow up with too well. If he is scum with you, obviously you cant kill him. If he is town and you are scum, killing him creates a situation where you are going to get lynched due to balance issues because three decent town PRs and no scum ones? Not happening.

He had the same situation in return last night, but I just have a hard time actually buying that he was scum and again left you alive for that long of a time. Its exceedingly risky and even with an RBer, you would be afraid of what is actually happening if the RBer dies for whatever reason because then what if there are other PRs?

That strong of a JOAT and two scum? I would probably be betting on at most one super weak other PR depending on what scum roles actually were. It just doesnt seem to make sense for you to be alive this long, although it makes a whole lot of sense for Ice because he either is scum, or Gooner is scum and couldnt kill him, or both.

[Hiraki]

I've been doctor and have been blocked with no recognition that I had been, to note.

[Rainbowdash]

I've been doctor and have been blocked with no recognition that I had been, to note.

That has nothing to do with my point, and is standard practice.

Its actually exceedingly bad modding practice to tell a role that would otherwise not receive a result that they have been roleblocked/etc.

[Rainbowdash]

If we allow players to get away with the behaviour which both Prolapsed Brain and Jackal are showing here then, sooner or later, a scum will try and will win the game because we presume it's poor townie play. These two need to raise their game considerably here and I don't like how some people are trying to turn us building a case on someone as scummy.

Can you explain this quote a bit better, the wording of it seems to make it sound more like you know or at least assume that both PB and Jackal are town because if "sooner or later scum will do X" to me implies that you thin (know?) that the two slots are going to be town.

Im probably about 90% of the way to a Gooner vote at this point. Him as town just makes next to no sense to me from a balance standpoint and from a standpoint of the way everything has actually gone down. Maybe the Majiffy death last night can also be explained by a Gooner-scum situation, as with a Gooner-scum flip, it would make him look good.

Im not sure but everything small ust seem to continue to point in that direction to me and im nearing that point where I think I should just go ahead and make the vote before I continue to drive myself up the walls second guessing myself.