Open 479: White Flag (Game Over)

Jake from State Farm · Post Post #1475 (ISO) » Thu May 23, 2013 5:18 am

In post 1474, havingfitz wrote:Why do you have you and Huntress as a possibility but not you and I?

And no...I'm not suggesting Jake and Huntress are a possibility because Huntress is town.

In post 1472, Jake from State Farm wrote:
Fitz? imo that doesn't work either as llama was pushing fitz most of the day and only changed votes to come to me, which again makes no sense being so close to deadline.

Jake from State Farm · Post Post #1476 (ISO) » Thu May 23, 2013 5:19 am

not to mention llama abandoned his attack on DCL (town) from day 3 to attack his scum buddy day 4? makes no sense

havingfitz · Post Post #1477 (ISO) » Thu May 23, 2013 5:21 am

OK.

I already cleared you band Huntress as a pair because the two of you didn't hammer me when I was at L-2 and you were having a chat.

greygnarl · Post Post #1478 (ISO) » Thu May 23, 2013 5:21 am

VOTECOUNTJake from State Farm: petroleumjelly
Not voting: Huntress, Thor665, havingfitz, Jake from State Farm.

Thor665 is V/LA until the 26th at the latest.

havingfitz · Post Post #1479 (ISO) » Thu May 23, 2013 5:23 am

band = and

#&&#@ phone posting

Jake from State Farm · Post Post #1480 (ISO) » Thu May 23, 2013 5:23 am

In post 1477, havingfitz wrote:OK.

I already cleared you band Huntress as a pair because the two of you didn't hammer me when I was at L-2 and you were having a chat.

oh yeah, forgot about that.

so basically I can't be scum with anyone in my opinion.

that makes llama/thor/pj as the only option.

I told you I was going to help win this game, FU Thor

Jake from State Farm · Post Post #1481 (ISO) » Thu May 23, 2013 5:29 am

In post 1456, Huntress wrote:Which leaves me with just two options:
Llama, Thor, Pj
Llama, Jake, Fitz

do you honestly think llama would give up his crusade on DCL(town) from previous days and bus his buddy on day 4 and when that didn't work bus his other buddy?

havingfitz · Post Post #1482 (ISO) » Thu May 23, 2013 5:53 am

OK...I finished up my case yesterday with the following thoughts:

Jake however is still not clear IMO. With Huntress cleared,

possible scum teams (Llama a given) from my pov are now Jake and Thor, or Thor and PJ.

I can't really see scum getting into a 1v1 (Jake v PJ) with each other when it would mean their loss if everyone agreed and ignored town.

Thor is the common factor in both of these scum pairs.

I'm going to vote Thor.

I do not care whether the last scum is PJ or Jake.

When I made this post I PJ and Jake were cross voting. I could not see Jake as scum putting the game on the line like that by voting PJ if they were a pair. But fine. Since Jake could have had his finger on the unvote button if PJ got to two votes....let's look at today. Jake has placed Thor at L-1 and allowed Huntress to post giving her the opportunity to hammer Thor. If Jake and Thor were really partners I seriously doubt they would put the game on the line like that.

I am convinced that PJ and Thor are the final team but since I don't have the solid confirmation of Jake's alignment like I do Huntress...I'm happy to play devil's advocate and say what if...Jake is scum.

Well I'm ruling out Jake and Thor for the aforementioned reasons (which were just a vote stronger clearing from my ruling out a Jake-PJ team earlier today).
I'm ruling out Jake and Huntress becuase if they were a team...the game would have ended yesterday (or today just now with ~town Thor for that matter).
That leaves:

PJ-Thor
PJ-Jake
PJ-havingfitz
havingfitz-Thor
havingfitz-Jake

I haven't tried to see if there are any reasons to clear me from Huntress's perspective so I don't know how to convince her I'm town other than to reiterate the bits about all the potential bussing that would have been going on yesterday not being necessary or realistic (IMO at least).

That leaves me with a similar pair for scum teams from yesterday except substituting Jake-Thor with Jake-PJ. PJ is in both sets. He's the better choice.

While it would have been preferable to lynch Thor for the win...if you (Huntress) can't see him as scum...I'm fine with PJ.

@Huntress...can you really not see PJ and Thor as a team?

VOTE: petroleumjelly

Jake from State Farm · Post Post #1483 (ISO) » Thu May 23, 2013 5:57 am

In post 1482, havingfitz wrote:possible scum teams (Llama a given) from my pov are now Jake and Thor

this scum team isn't possible either imo

I basically can't be scum with anyone unless there was some sort of bussing going on, if it wasn't lylo I could see that as a possibility but in lylo, it's not optimal play

Huntress · Post Post #1484 (ISO) » Thu May 23, 2013 6:04 am

In post 1470, Jake from State Farm wrote:why DOESN'T it bother you that he is not doing anything?

It doesn't bother me because I've looked at his posts and seen what he's had to say. He has several posts already toDay and is hardly "not doing anything". If I need to know more then I'll ask him. If you are town then you already know who the scum are by poe so don't need to get more out of him. Which makes me think that your pressure on him may be scum-motivated.

In post 1471, havingfitz wrote:Huntress....do you have any doubt that Jake and Thor are not of the same alignment?

I'm fairly confident now that they are not both scum and they can't be both town.

In post 1481, Jake from State Farm wrote:do you honestly think llama would give up his crusade on DCL(town) from previous days and bus his buddy on day 4 and when that didn't work bus his other buddy?

Yes, I think he's perfectly capable of it.

In post 1482, havingfitz wrote:@Huntress...can you really not see PJ and Thor as a team?

Of course I can, what makes you think I can't?

I've just been responding to a few things while doing other jobs but I'll sit down a bit later and go through the recent posts more thoroughly.

Jake from State Farm · Post Post #1485 (ISO) » Thu May 23, 2013 6:06 am

Sure he's capable of it, but does it logically make sense?

And me pressuring PJ to post more is scum motivated?

I'll un bookmark this game now.

havingfitz · Post Post #1486 (ISO) » Thu May 23, 2013 6:07 am

In post 1483, Jake from State Farm wrote:
In post 1482, havingfitz wrote:possible scum teams (Llama a given) from my pov are now Jake and Thor
this scum team isn't possible either imo

I basically can't be scum with anyone unless there was some sort of bussing going on, if it wasn't lylo I could see that as a possibility but in lylo, it's not optimal play

That was from yesterday before you let him get to L-1.

greygnarl · Post Post #1487 (ISO) » Thu May 23, 2013 7:21 am

VOTECOUNTJake from State Farm: petroleumjelly
petroleumjelly: havingfitz
Not voting: Huntress, Thor665, Jake from State Farm

Thor665 is V/LA until the 26th at the latest.

petroleumjelly · Post Post #1488 (ISO) » Thu May 23, 2013 4:21 pm

1.)

Jake from State Farm has no choice but to appear to be equally open to voting either myself or Thor665, as from his position he must declare that both Huntress and havingfitz are Town. And yet Jake from State Farm is acting like his willingness to vote Thor665 shows he cannot be paired with Thor665. It is quite to the contrary: if Jake from State Farm showed any hesitancy, it would

almost

confirm the two as partners. (And I say

almost

because if he is

actually

partnered with, say, havingfitz, he could easily feign reluctance in the hopes it would result in a Thor665 lynch because the two would be "confirmed" partners).

2.)

Jake from State Farm hangs his hat on the premise that scum do not bus one another. I don't think a detailed discussion on this point is really even necessary.

3.)

Both Jake from State Farm and havingfitz seem to be suggesting that because they "prevented" a No Lynch yesterday (when they argue it would have been easier to play towards a No Lynch), this sort of ignores the fact that they are the reason a No Lynch became an option (because they were the two who suggested a deadline to begin with, giving scum that option), and it also ignores the fact that the deadline could have easily been extended. Furthermore, if the goal was simply to "prevent a No Lynch," then havingfitz could have done that long before by simply hammering Jake from State Farm.

4.)

I will note that Jake from State Farm's and havingfitz's latest posts are looking awfully coordinated, but without seeing anything from Thor665, it is difficult to say that the one pairing is more likely than the other as of yet.

havingfitz · Post Post #1489 (ISO) » Fri May 24, 2013 12:33 am

PJ...I agree with your pt 1 above. Jake is absolutely locked in to you and Thor as scum and any hesitation in a willingness to vote either of you would be suspect. But here's the thing. We absolutely know Huntress is not scum. She and Jake have had too many opportunities to end the game already and haven't (both D4 and today). And I know I am not scum. So fmpov...there are three scum in PJ, Thor and Jake. And I find yours and Thor's play to be more the suspect of the three. Your unwillingness to consider who the two scum are and make case on both of them is not helpful to town as who knows...you might actually come across something that would definitively clear or implicate Jake or Thor. But instead it appears like you are content to underpost and stay locked in on Jake because the two of you are in a 1v1. If I'm picking between you and Jake my vote says where that sentiment lies. And the fact that I am town voting you in LYLO and you are still here points to either you being scum...or town and Thor is the last scum (ie no hammer because he's v/LA). Cause if it was Thor and Jake and Thor had joined me on your wagon....Jake is around enough it seems at all times that finishing you off wouldn't be difficult. So if you are town...you have to suspect Thor.

Jake...are you willing to vote PJ? Why no vote on him after I went back to him? Since he and Thor are equally suspect from your perspective?

2...yes bussing occurs....but it wasn't necessary yesterday from a me with Llama perspective. I could have stayed on DCL or me and womever my partner was could have joined Huntress on your wagon at the close of the day. Or I think there was some suspicions pointed towards Thor as well so he would have been an option. The point is...until Llama did a complete 180 in his read on me AND his read on the person I suspected much of the game (DCL)...he was in no threat of me pushing for his lynch. So why if he was my partner would we both leave DCL and opt for each other? We wouldn't. The game was there for scum to win yesterday. They didn't need to concern themselves with looking good for town...they need to get the mislynch or no lynch.

3. This is ridiculous. To hold the fact I asked for the deadline to be clarified against me (and Jake) is absurd. Who plays in a game where they do not know how much time they have left in the day? And then...to just be given a day but no time is equally unacceptable. 6am? 11pm? Kind of matters. Knowing how long we have was more conducive to making sure town got a lynch done than not. And if you are saying scum would not consider the option of trying to get a no lynch for the win you are grasping at straws. Rather than bus a buddy (Llama) I could have made my way onto a town's wagon or a wagon that had less support. Absolutely.

The fact is...I didn't go for the No Lynch.
And the fact is...I did push for scum's lynch.

4. Are we coordinated because we are the two doing most of the posting or because we both suspect you and Thor? We are in 5 person LYLO....it's going to look a little coordinated when 2 players suspect the same players. Jake is committed to at least giving lip service to wanting you and Thor lynched whereas you and thor represent 2/3rds of my suspects and in fact are who I suspect more than Jake. So to say we are coordinated is a bit or a stretch on your part.

So PJ...who is Jake's partner and why?

havingfitz · Post Post #1490 (ISO) » Fri May 24, 2013 2:45 am

Spoiler: Llama interactions...

tl:dr;

I do not see anything ruling out Jake as a partner for Llama....though it felt like early in D4 he was especially interested in Thor doing more. I would rank it a toss up based on his ISO as for who I think might be his partner (between Thor and Jake) with PJ in 3rd. I just have a really hard time thinking Jake and Thor could be partners together when Jake and I were both on Thor yesterday and that left it open for both Huntress AND PJ if town) to come in and end the game. And Huntress especially had expressed interest in voting Thor to start the day. So there was a genuine risk of Thor getting lynched today with the support of Jake. So I can not see Jake and Thor as a team.

And

fmpov the only other two options for scum teams both contain PJ

,

Time permitting I will look at PJ Thor and Jake later.

petroleumjelly · Post Post #1491 (ISO) » Fri May 24, 2013 2:54 am

Short post.

In post 776, havingfitz wrote:
Mod...I know you said there is no deadline but that's not going to work. Please provide a deadline. We need to agree to a lynch (on scum) a a no lynch would = scum win. A deadline will ~help keep us focused.

I am not calling you suspicious for "clarifying the deadline." I am calling you suspicious for asking for a deadline to imposed in the first place, and

then

acting like you are Town because you helped us "avoid a No Lynch." With no deadline,

the town

cannot

No Lynch

. The

only

thing that gave scum that option was the fact that both you and Jake from State Farm requested the deadline. As far as that goes, your reason for asking for a deadline does not even make sense: if you are fully aware that a "No Lynch = scum win," then if your goal was to

avoid

a No Lynch, you would have argued

against

a deadline, because then the only way a No Lynch would then be possible would be if three players actually voted for a No Lynch (which would never happen).

Your posts look coordinated with Jake from State Farm because the two of you seem to trying to double-team Huntress (in particular pushing her into a vote right now, even though you originally cautioned patience before any votes were laid down), and you are both arguing along very similar lines. In fact, both of you seem to have given thought to why the two of you "cannot" be scum together.

As I have said multiple times, I really have no reason to read back on the thread to determine Jake from State Farm's partner. I can still rather easily see either {Jake from State Farm, Thor665} and {Jake from State Farm, havingfitz}. I agree that Huntress is out of the picture at this point. While my suspicions for the pairing with Thor665 arise from reasons largely earlier in the thread (and also somewhat involve ac1983fan), my suspicions for you are more newly developed based on today and yesterday. My last post in fact already touched on this: while you and Jake from State Farm look a bit tied to the hip right now, that does not mean the same would not appear true of Thor665 if he were actually posting.

That said

, if Thor665 is partnered with Jake from State Farm, it could also be the case he would prefer to avoid the thread as long as possible, because logic might insist that he must vote Jake from State Farm unless the voting situation looks different (which means that the fact that I started today with a vote for Jake from State Farm could potentially have put Thor665 in a lose-lose bind for him if he is scum). Still, his V/LA makes that difficult to judge.

Why are you so intent on having me try to discover Jake from State Farm's partner? It gives me pretty much no advantages, and if I get it wrong, I could potentially be throwing the game away. White Flag

assumes

and

allows

that there is going to be one scum who plays so well they will fool the Town and not get lynched, but the

Town can still win

. So why are you trying to get me to look for the most elusive scum in the game when it is not required of me, and the only consequence it could result in is a bad consequence for getting it wrong (which the game presumes I

will

do)?

Jake from State Farm · Post Post #1492 (ISO) » Fri May 24, 2013 3:23 am

PJ, asking for a deadline helps town. Because it prevents mafia from lurking.

Jake from State Farm · Post Post #1493 (ISO) » Fri May 24, 2013 3:26 am

I was serious in my earlier post, I have unbookmarked this game. Idk why I'm even posting now.

I've proven I can't be scum with anyone. Pj's posts are some if the worst logic/reasoning I've ever heard. He's better off not saying anything at all cause these posts are gonna hurt his site reputation. Like seriously nothing he says even remotely looks like they come from a town perspective.

@ fitz - I'm not voting cause I don't give a shit anymore. I'll probably just self vote and end this shit game. If you or huntress think there is still a chance I can be town, despite proving that its actually impossible, I'm doomed to lose anyway.

havingfitz · Post Post #1494 (ISO) » Fri May 24, 2013 4:22 am

PJ...I stated why you should look for Jake's partner here...

In post 1489, havingfitz wrote:Your unwillingness to consider who the two scum are and make case on both of them is not helpful to town as who knows...you might actually come across something that would definitively clear or implicate Jake or Thor. But instead it appears like you are content to underpost and stay locked in on Jake because the two of you are in a 1v1.

As for the deadline issue....I've never been in a game with no deadlines. For me...not knowing when the deadline is is unacceptable. It's an asinine point to push.

We aren't double teaming Huntress. From both our pov's she is confirmed town. We want her to vote with us. At the start of the day she was not confirmed town to me so of course I cautioned patience...but with the determination that she was town combined with the fact you and Thor should view Jake as confirmed scum (and vice versa)... the need for patience for most of us is diminished.

As for Jake...I recognize he is a sure thing from your pov but he isn't for me and Huntress. Hypothesizing on his partner can only help town find scum.

In post 1489, havingfitz wrote:Jake...are you willing to vote PJ? Why no vote on him after I went back to him? Since he and Thor are equally suspect from your perspective?

^ Jake

Jake from State Farm · Post Post #1495 (ISO) » Fri May 24, 2013 4:24 am

Already answered you

havingfitz · Post Post #1496 (ISO) » Fri May 24, 2013 4:43 am

In post 1495, Jake from State Farm wrote:Already answered you

When you said you weren't voting anyone? Seriously? That's your response?

Jake from State Farm · Post Post #1497 (ISO) » Fri May 24, 2013 5:33 am

I didn't vote PJ because I didn't really care to do anything at the moment. we have thor delaying the game, Huntress delaying the game, and PJ horribly losing in the back and forth with me, what's the point of voting?

it doesn't really matter what I do right now because with just the 3 of us (me/pj/you) a lynch can never happen.

the ONLY way I can be scum with llama is if we bussed each other, but given the state of the game yesterday when scum needs just 1 mislynch to happen, why would he and I be bussing each other so close to deadline? it makes no sense and is extremely risky.

If I was scum with llama, the only benefit would be to gain town cred, which I haven't gained. I would have been better off voting PJ/DCL/or even Thor.

Look at PJ's vote on me yesterday

In post 754, petroleumjelly wrote:ote: Jake from State Farm

I think you are scum who replaced in with the general agenda to get DCLXVI lynched. Upon seeing actual resistance to the DCLXVI wagon, you held back your vote and instead voted for the biggest roadblock in the way of that plan. This fully explains why you have read players in isolation in the order you claimed to have read them.

I am much more happy with this vote over being forced to choose between DCLXVI and havingfitz (where I felt I was going to have to vote havingfitz eventually simply because he is not DCLXVI, which is not how I prefer to vote).

The first part PJ says is a

complete lie

for 3 reasons.
1. I voted PJ first, not DCL. I didn't actually vote DCL until some 200 posts later.
2. havingfitz was already voting DCL and DCL was voting havingfitz. There was no resistance to a DCL wagon, if I was scum knowing DCL was town, why would I vote PJ and not DCL?
3. he says I went after him, the biggest roadblock in my way of lynching DCL, but he doesn't even mention or acknowledge fitz's vote on DCL, nor does he question fitz for his vote. If PJ was the biggest road block preventing a DCL lynch, you would think he would have, you know, ACTUALLY TRIED TO STOP THE VOTES ON DCL or something...

also if PJ was so sure DCL was town, why make this comment?

I am much more happy with this vote over being forced to choose between DCLXVI and havingfitz (where I felt I was going to have to vote havingfitz eventually simply because he is not DCLXVI, which is not how I prefer to vote).

who was forcing him to do anything?

I also want to know why PJ never did this

In post 691, petroleumjelly wrote:I plan on looking further into the nightkills later tonight. I'm starting to think there must be more there than there appears to be at a glance (in part because of the common element present in all three kills; my original theory that scum are just trying to be uninformative with their nightkills does not exactly fall in line with the other salient feature at play).

he obviously thinks analyzing NKs is valuable

In post 800, petroleumjelly wrote:I think in general scum vastly prefer having nightkills ignored and often suggest it is "WIFOM" to analyze them. But from experience I know that nightkills are often rather indicative of who is scum, and often make a good deal of sense in hindsight. So if it possible to instead use foresight, I would prefer to do it. In this case my own efforts were not very fruitful,
which is why I have been urging others to look into them to see if they can connect the dots.

the bolded is interesting, cause i don't see PJ "urging" anyone. There was only 1 person who actually analyzed NKs, and that was me.

and what do I get for analyzing NKs and looking over the reads of Dead people (confirmed town) vs alive people (who are not)

I get this

In post 1053, petroleumjelly wrote:why would you read dead players before you read living players?

does this sound like someone who cares about analyzing NKs? He says he will do them but doesn't and then he attacks the one person who actually does them.

Why does he attack me?

because i point out the following

Mafia NK #1 wrote:Scummy -
Rach
& Thor

Mafia NK #2 wrote:Scummy - Thor

Mafia NK #3 wrote:Scummy - llama & huntress

i also point out who the lynched people thought were scummy

Day 1 Lynch wrote:Scummy -
RachMarie
& Thor

Day 2 Lynch wrote:Scummy -
DCL, Rach,
Thor, & pj

Day 3 Lynch wrote:Scummy - Fitz, Thor, & Llama

Looks like I was making some pretty damn good sense if you ask me.

As much as i want to lynch PJ, and deep in my heart I KNOW he is scum, Thor is the right lynch.

vote: Thor

Huntress · Post Post #1498 (ISO) » Fri May 24, 2013 6:15 am

No. The right lynch is either you or Pj.

Is that a typo in the last para of 1493? I can't think you actually meant to say that.

No conclusions yet, as I'm still working my way through this.

Jake from State Farm · Post Post #1499 (ISO) » Fri May 24, 2013 6:19 am

yes that was a typo