Open 462: Carbon-14 (Game Over)


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Post Post #150 (ISO) » Wed Dec 12, 2012 4:53 pm

Post by F-16_Fighting_Falcon »

There is very little to analyze this game seeing as it is only 6 pages after two days. We need to get some discussion going. I've been inactive so far, finals and stuff, but I only have 1 more left and it is not till Monday so there is plenty of time.

With the knowledge that Lincolm, Scooby, and City are town, let's re-evaluate.

Dividizzle
:
He asks Lincolm why we would random lynch, and asks Nekoko and Lincolm to not read too much into the CityElectric post about Scooby. Then votes Scooby as soon as his V/LA got over. can be seen two ways - genuine concern from town or frustrated scum since Lincolm, a townie was defending Scooby, another townie. Div continues questioning Lincolm due about Scooby's V/LA. In , Dividizzle takes Nekoko's side going so far as to say that he agrees with Nekoko. I doubt scum would do that among partners. I think it is more likely they would want to distance between themselves. I can't see Div/Nekoko scumteam.

Scooby comes in and votes Div after which Div switches to Lincolm. I really dislike this switch in . Scooby had done absolutely nothing to seem town-ish except vote Div, yell at him and OMGUS him. City then is happy with Scooby's vote. Considering that City was considered town by most players, she was de-facto leading the town. City being happy with Scooby co-inciding with Div's vote is bad for Div - makes me feel like he knew Scooby wagon wasn't going anywhere and was trying to placate Scooby. In , he also says that Lincolm's actions look very suspicious due to Lincolm's interactions with me. Div, why is this so? Can you elaborate on what your thought process was at that time? So, we have Div voting Scooby, then voting Lincolm after FOSsing him for a while and seeing Lincolm defend Scooby. There seemed to be a certain natural progression in suspicion so I can see this coming from town-Div.

Div's was wierd. He claims that it was bad that I voted him but didn't say that it was L-1. He then turns to Scooby and takes his side asking what Scooby thought about Lincolm staying on him and me putting him at L-1. I don't like that he said that the entire game was revolving around Scooby. He could have simply talked to the people that were online and waited for Scooby to come back. I dislike where Div apparently is only going to give reads if he is about to be hammered. What I really dislike here is Div, instead of shooting off reads like any normal townie would, why do wait to see if someone is going to hammer before you provide your reads? I mean, reads are how we advance the game and there is benefit to providing reads even if you don't get hammered. Upon re-reading was good. The only issue I had was that he leans town on me for stopping and reconsidering because he knows that I am the swing vote and he needs to persuade me. That could be opportunism but it could also be a genuine read.

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:
I disagree with his push to lynch Scooby in while simultaneously asking for a replacement. It is good to get a replacement but why also push for a lynch as opposed to simply waiting for the replacement to show up? In a seven player game, two mislynches could end the game so a "lynch all lurkers" policy lynch is a terrible idea. BV argues with Nekoko regarding the Scooby lynch in and votes Lincolm in the next post. In , BV continues to argue the point with Nekoko about whether should be spared. I really don't like this line of thinking and in a 7P game, it is a bad idea. BV's advances the same line of reasoning. If there is one thing to be said, he is consistent about it. Lincolm also correctly points out in that bv didn't yet answer why he dislikes Lincolm's post.

BV seemed eager to hammer Div in . Can't tell if it is because Divi is his buddy or if he is trying to stall on hammering a mislynch. With BV town, I can see some lazyness on his part just choosing to hammer without really offering any concrete opinions so far. All his contribution has been "policy-lynch scooby" and after Scooby got to be active, switch around to Div and offer a deadline hammer. Why no reads BV? What do you think about the other players so far? When prodded into explaining why he finds Div suspicious, he just says that the last two posts were somewhat scummy in . Don't like the vagueness in this post. Bv, I'd like an explanation as to what exactly it was about the last two posts of Div you found scummy. BV says he need all the info we can get with this setup but there was no real effort so far as to getting any information.

I don't like BV's . He states intent to hammer after two other people have also expressed intent to hammer. Desire to place a vote on a buddy? This points towards DV/Div team. I could see BV/Div team after BV switched to Lincolm in after I unvote Div and Scooby switches as well. This after he declared that he would hammer div in a conspicuous manner. It was a voting error but the intent was that he wanted to add his vote.

Nekoko
:
Nekoko switches from BV to Div in . Says there is no reason to vote for inactives and is shocked by bv's comment regarding lynching Scooby. Nekoko's next switch is from div to BV310 in . He gives reasoning for voting after BV responded to his earlier FOS. At first glance, this interaction felt like it wasn't between buddies but looking again, it could potentially be manufactured argument knowing that the wagon isn't likely to reach a lynch. , however seems like a very good portrayal of the situation leading me to possibly scratch the manufactured argument theory. Nekoko looks at the big picture and tries to clarify his point with regard to Scooby.

I don't like Nekoko saying in that was a buddying attempt. It is possible he is distancing from his buddy. Scratch what I said about eliminating a Div/Nekoko scumteam because I don't like the distancing here. Perhaps Div made a mistake agreeing with Nekoko and Nekoko wanted to put enough distance between the two of them by accusing Div of buddying. That way, if Div flips scum, it will seem as though he was buddying to Nekoko, a townie. The unvote on Bv310 doesn't seem like scum-scum interaction. Div was going to likely get lynched. Bad move to unvote your buddy at that point. Would have been nice to keep pushing the distancing factor. Nekoko then turns to Dividizzle - can be interpreted as bussing. He defends Lincoln and says that Div looks bad. However, the thought process of figuring out Lincoln's exact motivations comes across as townish.

Nekoko also offers to hammer Dividizzle. Again, the seemed somewhat unnecessary. Nekoko, why do you have a gut town read on BV when you think he is lurking? I don't understand it. Please explain.

Summary

I have been trying to find associative tells under every possible combination. As you can see, some tells are weak, some are strong. Overall, I am leaning towards a Bv/Div team but I am not certain in those reads. I'd like to see more posts coming in.

Key points: I don't like that Div had only interacted much with known townies until he was pressured. There wasn't much bv/div interaction except bv's offer to hammer. There are some things about Nekoko I didn't like either such as that quick admonishment of Div for buddying when all he did was agree with Nekoko. But overall, Nekoko seems to be that townie but we should all really get active and lynch scum. Inactivity favors the scum factions. I didn't have a lot of time to spare for this game but I do now and hopefully, this post will spark some discussion.
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Post Post #151 (ISO) » Wed Dec 12, 2012 8:19 pm

Post by dividizzle »

It's going to take me a little time to read that and respond.

I guess you are right in the sense that we should be looking at scum teams instead of looking at simply scummy behavior given the situation we are in. Normally I find that more difficult, but I will give it a go later tonight or tomorrow morning after responding to your post.
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Post Post #152 (ISO) » Thu Dec 13, 2012 6:05 am

Post by dividizzle »

Ok, I am going to address the main points you pointed out. Sorry if I seem short because I do feel like I have been over several of them many times before but you did a good analysis and put in a lot of effort so I will go over them again. If you really are still confused please let me know.

Regarding the switch from Scooby to Lincolm: As I have said, my primary scum read at the time was Lincolm. However, I did not want to take my vote off Scooby and encourage more lurking. I even said in #71 that my vote will stay on Scooby until he posts anything of content or votes. I really was frustrated by the amount of content that was being devoted to worrying about Scooby and his inactivity. The game needed to advance past that point and my vote was the only tool I had to accomplish that goal. Go back and read the content preceding it, look at how it is centered around Scooby. As soon as Scooby posted something I switched to my main scum read.

Regarding me abandoning the Scooby wagon and placating Scooby: I was never really trying to start a wagon on Scooby, I think you are missing the point of my vote. I had Scooby as my third most likely scum suspect but I was much more interested in the scummy behavior of lincolm and bv. I am also confused about what City’s towniness means for my vote there in your analysis. I also was not trying to placate Scooby, I was trying to involve him.

Regarding Lincolm being suspicious: I thought lincolm displayed a potential scum trait of inconsistency. Due to scum needing to manufacture their views and cases, it often results in them being very inconsistent. That is why I was suspicious of the different views that Lincolm took toward inactivity among different players. Posts #76 and #110 indicate my case on Lincolm. I thought Lincolm got progressively scummier as we went along though, and I thought he acted scummy when faced with pressure. That’s why I kept my vote on him.

Regarding you putting me L-1 and not saying so: Maybe you have never seen it before, but there have been times (admittedly moreso on other sites) where opportunistic scum can hammer and say they didn’t realize it was the hammer. Usually it seems smart from a town perspective to say you are putting someone at L-1 to avoid such an easy trick.

Regarding me taking sides: I think you are twisting my words a bit, rather than taking sides, I am trying to direct questions to find out what people are thinking/intending.

Regarding giving my reads before a hammer: My reads were not fully formed or 100% as there was very little information to go on. If given time, I would have liked to continue developing them more. However, I wanted to be sure that I was given a chance to contribute my reads to the town if someone was going to hammer me. Once again, that is fairly traditional. I had already pointed out my preferred scum read and I wanted to know if I should dump all my thoughts/reads on the table.

Sorry if my response seems long and unnecessary but I feel like I have addressed several of those points before.
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Post Post #153 (ISO) » Thu Dec 13, 2012 6:10 am

Post by dividizzle »

So with Cityelectric conftown because no counterclaims: from my perspective there are 2 scum in f16, bv, nekoko.

When I get a few minutes I will look at three potential scum pairs: f16-bv, f16-nekoko, bv-nekoko.
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Post Post #154 (ISO) » Thu Dec 13, 2012 7:56 am

Post by F-16_Fighting_Falcon »

A quick check of your ISO corroborates that you had Lincolm as a scumread and matches with your story. Never having Scooby as a scumread also explains why you unvoted as soon as he posted. City's townieness matters because you unvoted Scooby right after City said that she was happy with Scooby i.e. following the town leader.

Regarding Lincolm, I can see what you are saying but you are barely scratching the surface. Let's go into detail. What inconsistencies did Lincolm display. Precisely who did he inconsistently pressure and why as scum would he have those inconsistencies. I don't want a general "scum are inconsistent," I want to see your full thought process laid out as to why Lincolm would have a certain inconsistency as scum but not as town. For example, did you think that he was trying to buddy with Scooby and attack me resulting in different reads of me and Scooby that would only have scum motivation? Did you think I was scum with Lincolm and he was distancing while buddying Scooby, or did you think Scooby and Lincolm was scum and me town and Lincolm was pushing an argument with me while standing up for his partner Scooby? Exactly, what did those inconsistencies mean and how did they point to a scum motivation?

"
Regarding me taking sides: I think you are twisting my words a bit
"

This somewhat feels off like you don't directly want to call me scum but are still soft-FOSsing me. "I wasn't taking sides" would have been a better response if you thought I was town, and a more direct accusation of me would have looked better if you thought I was scum. I get the feeling you don't want to remove a potential lynch of me off the table while at the same time trying to not antagonize me.

Why do your reads need to be "fully-formed" or 100% before you give them? I've never seen town hesitate in giving reads half-baked or not. The only thing I can see is that it is somehow"traditional" to dump reads before a lynch on other sites you've played before (where you referenced the L-1 thing). If that is so, can you post links to games where it was "traditional" to dump reads before a lynch?
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Post Post #155 (ISO) » Thu Dec 13, 2012 8:46 am

Post by dividizzle »

Lincolm was inconsistently attacking you for inactivity while disdaining any pressure for the missing scooby, which could have been indicative of many combinations of things. Yes, perhaps he was buddying scooby and attacking you or distancing from you. Or perhaps he was just looking for excuses to make up reads and didn't realize he was behaving contradictorily. Obviously, these are not the case because he is town. Did I know what he was doing? Absolutely not. But 3 pages in, it is important to look for little scumreads and the fact that he was already treating players by different rules struck me as a very potentially scummy thing. Plenty enough for a vote. Then, as I said he proceeded to become more scummy as I began to detail in I think #110 and his failures of defense amounted to enough for a lynch. If your question is "why was the inconsistency he displayed in dealing with you and scooby worthy of a lynch?" Then the answer is it was not. But it was deserving of a vote and being my scumread and his continued behavior was deserving of a lynch. Just look at the conftown that voted for him.

Ok, now you are very clearly twisting my words. That doesn't mean I am calling you scum, it just means you are twisting my words. Perhaps you are overzealous or perhaps you are confused about my meaning. I have recently stated that it is very hard to find you scum from my perspective. Obviously not impossible, but I have not attempted to keep a lynch of you on the table any more than should be done for any non confirmed player in the game.

Instead of fully-formed I should have said 'as formed as possible.' Fully formed to the point that they could be at that early stage. They are still reads and are dependent on the information you have at hand. In my experience, it has been traditional on this site to give your fullest reads if you are faced with a lynch. This allows you to give the town every benefit that you can provide even if you are facing imminent death. Does that really surprise you?
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Post Post #156 (ISO) » Thu Dec 13, 2012 8:54 am

Post by F-16_Fighting_Falcon »

Okay, I buy the first few answer. I have however never seen anyone wait till they are about to be hammered before they give their reads. I agree that giving reads is helpful before a lynch. My point is this: if you weren't going to be hammered, would you not have given your reads? That makes no sense since you should be giving reads regardless of whether you were going to be hammered or not. Can you explain that bit?
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Post Post #157 (ISO) » Thu Dec 13, 2012 11:41 am

Post by F-16_Fighting_Falcon »

I re-evaluated and now I changed my mind. Nekoko seems the scummiest. His reads at the beginning of this Day phase where he says Div is scum and I am scum with him seems like really contrived analysis and very superficial. "derailed a lynch" as opposed to digging into more detail. Also, the mysterious "townread" on BV, I don't understand. It could be that BV is his buddy or it could just be that he doesn't want to antagonize BV. Scum have incentive to lurk especially if they are considered town by conf-town. I think Nekoko seems like our best shot. BV hasn't really provided any sort of content and regardless of whether BV is town, Nekoko's townread doesn't make sense, especially after that debate about lynching Scooby. Div responded to my analysis and posted his thoughts making me think that overall, he could potentially be the townie in that group.
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Post Post #158 (ISO) » Thu Dec 13, 2012 4:12 pm

Post by Nekoko »

Okay I'll come back later at night (probably 12+ hours from now) to comment on other things but
this is my reason why I thought bv was town.

I thought he's the potential seer and here is why.

1. bv was unusually absent or he was posting sparingly. I think if you're lurking and you're not scum,
you could be a power role to avoid unneeded attention.

2. He was confident in lynching scooby even though he could potentially be a power role.
This led me to believe that he is a power role. And also this
In post 67, bv310 wrote:If you are willing to excuse an active lurker because of the potential that he is the
1/9
people in this game with a pro-town power, then we have nothing to talk about and should move to a better line of questioning. If, on the other hand, the chance of losing the one PR is worth pressuring every player to contribute, then let's push it.

If assuming he thought there was 9 players, shouldn't it be 2 instead of 1.

3. Also this one looks like a breadcrumb or something.
In post 9, bv310 wrote:vote: dividizzle
Obviously a werewolf. Look at the fur coming out of his ears!


So after CityElectric's claim, I was surprised that bv is not the seer.
This changes a lot because a dividizzle-bv scum team looks more plausible than a dividizzle-f-16 team.

bv never suspected dividizzle and the only time he wanted to vote him (except for the random vote in the beginning)
was because it was just necessary to lynch someone instead of no lynching.
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Open 487 - Hard Boiled - As Vanilla Townie
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Post Post #159 (ISO) » Thu Dec 13, 2012 5:25 pm

Post by dividizzle »

I have things to say! and still going over potential teams just give me a few minutes. leaving airport.
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Post Post #160 (ISO) » Fri Dec 14, 2012 3:53 am

Post by dividizzle »

First things first:
@nekoko: what do you think of his lurking now that you know he isn’t a power role? Scum?

I have found that in certain respects scum and power roles have similar interests (not getting lynched or putting themselves at risk).

Also, hmmm I was going to post that I didn’t think a nekoko-f16 scum team was likely because I thought that neither was on the lincolm wagon, but I realized f16 was the hammer and not cityelectric. My mistake, that’s why I felt the need to post last night that I had things to say. But going on..

Potential teams

F-16 – bv
- Like I have said before, I would shy away from F16 being scum, but this combination is still possible because there is very little interaction between the two except for minor exchanges over values of power roles. The one exchange Day 1 between posts #89 and #90 does strike me strange. It doesn’t provide any real information and seems like a contrived dialogue. Though perhaps I am really just looking at post #90 and it looks really scummy to me looking back. The quote about needing all the information we can get seems very weird given that one mislynch and we are in a must lynch correctly scenario.
Bv-nekoko
- I do not like all their discussion about the PRs. I also don’t like the fact that nekoko seems to put a vote on bv for the sake of appearing to apply pressure without it really meaning anything.
- I also completely agree with f16 that the town read nekoko develops on bv is questionable even if he thought bv was the power role. I am intrigued to see what nekoko thinks about bv now

F-16-nekoko
- My initial reaction is that this probably isn’t the scum team. Though they literally have zero interaction day 1 except for that weird ‘City is scum” post by f16 that nekoko responded to. I think they have legitimate interaction on day 2.

My top read for a scum team is Bv-Nekoko, second is Bv-f16, and third is f16-nekoko
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Post Post #161 (ISO) » Fri Dec 14, 2012 3:58 am

Post by dividizzle »

@F16 Re: #156. I would have of course given my scum reads and pursued all my targets and said things that were pertinent so yes I would have given reads. I was in the process of giving reads but before being threatened with the hammer there wasn't the same rush on needing to do so. But before death I just wanted to make sure I summed up what I thought about everyone so I could leave you all with that.

I understand what you are saying and yes it is important to share as much information as possible but it is just a more gradual process of developing your reads unless you are faced with a deadline.
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Post Post #162 (ISO) » Fri Dec 14, 2012 2:03 pm

Post by F-16_Fighting_Falcon »

I am leaning towards BV as scum. I am unsure between the other two. He also has been online yesterday and today and he is posting elsewhere but not here. Also, barely any analysis from him so far.
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Post Post #163 (ISO) » Fri Dec 14, 2012 7:31 pm

Post by bv310 »

F-16, trying to cast doubt on me by using my activity level is scummy as fuck. Try using real evidence if you want to do something, and fuck off with the "Oh, he's posted elsewhere, he must be active lurking". I posted in GD, not a game. Fuck off.

That said, I would like to point at Nekoko for likely scum. If you look through his posting history, all he's talked about so far is that there might be a seer in the game. His reasoning for excusing Scooby before was that he might be a PR. He's basically refused to look at me because he saw a joke and thought I was softclaiming Seer (this actually seems likely that if he's scum, the scum is Mafia, not WW).

vote: Nekoko
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Post Post #164 (ISO) » Fri Dec 14, 2012 7:37 pm

Post by F-16_Fighting_Falcon »

You gave a reason for why he could potentially be a mafia as opposed to werewolf. But why do you think he is scum in the first place? He has talked very little but so have you. Why is talking about a seer in the game scummy?
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Post Post #165 (ISO) » Fri Dec 14, 2012 7:57 pm

Post by bv310 »

Because speculating on whether a power role is player A or B is fluff that appears game-related. It's used by scum to try and figure out who the PR is on reactions.
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Post Post #166 (ISO) » Fri Dec 14, 2012 8:36 pm

Post by F-16_Fighting_Falcon »

And who do you think is Nekoko's partner and why?

Tbh, your analysis has been terrible so far and I have intent to vote you in a bit.

Also, the fact that you throw out a solitary FOS and vote without regard to potential scum-hammers strikes me as suspicious. You made no analysis of the game. From your POV if you were town, the scumteam could just as well be me and Div in which case, you would have lost the game. I don't see that as coming from a town mindset.
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Post Post #167 (ISO) » Fri Dec 14, 2012 8:38 pm

Post by F-16_Fighting_Falcon »

In post 165, bv310 wrote:Because speculating on whether a power role is player A or B is fluff that appears game-related. It's used by scum to try and figure out who the PR is on reactions.


It is alignment null. Scum could be on the lookout for PR's but town could assume that someone is a PR and could have a gut-feeling on that person.
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Post Post #168 (ISO) » Sat Dec 15, 2012 6:51 am

Post by ProsecutorGodot »

Vote Count 2.1


Nekoko (1) - bv310

Not voting (4) - CityElectric, F-16_Fighting_Falcon, Nekoko, dividizzle

With 5 alive, it takes 3 to lynch.

Deadline is Thursday, December 20 at 8:00 AM Central Standard Time. That's in (expired on 2012-12-20 08:00:00).
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Post Post #169 (ISO) » Sat Dec 15, 2012 7:08 am

Post by bv310 »

In post 166, F-16_Fighting_Falcon wrote:And who do you think is Nekoko's partner and why?

Tbh, your analysis has been terrible so far and I have intent to vote you in a bit.

Also, the fact that you throw out a solitary FOS and vote without regard to potential scum-hammers strikes me as suspicious. You made no analysis of the game. From your POV if you were town, the scumteam could just as well be me and Div in which case, you would have lost the game. I don't see that as coming from a town mindset.

If you want to vote me, then vote me, or FOS it if you're worried about a quickhammer (which you shouldn't. If you're worried about a quickhammer, that means you think there are still two scum to hammer, which means you think I can't be one of them)

Also, I don't know who Neko's partner is, but I can tell you once he flips scum (or tell you in postgame if I'm wrong, which I doubt). Speculating on partners when we have absolutely no other info besides Lincolm's flip is useless, especially since our PR has no useful information for us.
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Post Post #170 (ISO) » Sat Dec 15, 2012 9:18 am

Post by F-16_Fighting_Falcon »

Speculating on partners is important because with City being confirmed, we know for a fact that out of the four of us, for the two of us who are town, two of the remaining three are mafia. Therefore there are only 3 possible combinations of scum. With the tiny bit of analysis you have given, you can be nowhere near certain enough to hang the game in the balance if you were town, so I don't know why you would just vote out of the blue before discussing scumteams, and evaluating other possibilities.
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Post Post #171 (ISO) » Sat Dec 15, 2012 1:05 pm

Post by dividizzle »

At the airport, I will hopefully be able to post tonight
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Post Post #172 (ISO) » Sat Dec 15, 2012 4:03 pm

Post by Nekoko »

In post 163, bv310 wrote:That said, I would like to point at Nekoko for likely scum. If you look through his posting history, all he's talked about so far is that there might be a seer in the game. His reasoning for excusing Scooby before was that he might be a PR. He's basically refused to look at me because he saw a joke and thought I was softclaiming Seer (this actually seems likely that if he's scum, the scum is Mafia, not WW).

In post 165, bv310 wrote:Because speculating on whether a power role is player A or B is fluff that appears game-related. It's used by scum to try and figure out who the PR is on reactions.

How is speculating who the seer is scummy when it's already LYLO?
Wouldn't it help reduce the suspects since it's very important to lynch scum in LYLO??

And of course I thought you were Seer because the Cop died what else would I think??

I know for a fact that power roles breadcrumb even on day 1 so that
they could be believable when they role claim later
and since I know you were posting a bit sparingly on day 1,
it must have a totally good reason, right?
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Last Game Played and Finished:

Newbie 1365 - 2of4 - As Town Cop
Open 487 - Hard Boiled - As Vanilla Townie
Open 485 - Polygamist Mafia - As Mafia Lover
Newbie 1315 - As Mafia Role Cop
Record (Wins-Losses-Draw-Other):

Town - 3-1-0-0
Scum - 2-2-0-0
Others - 0-0-0-0
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Post Post #173 (ISO) » Sat Dec 15, 2012 4:07 pm

Post by F-16_Fighting_Falcon »

It is fairly obvious at least one of Nekoko or BV is scum. If it was a me-Div team, we would have hammered.
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Post Post #174 (ISO) » Sat Dec 15, 2012 4:09 pm

Post by Nekoko »

In post 150, F-16_Fighting_Falcon wrote:Nekoko also offers to hammer Dividizzle. Again, the 107 seemed somewhat unnecessary.

This was more of a response to CityElectric's post to
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Last Game Played and Finished:

Newbie 1365 - 2of4 - As Town Cop
Open 487 - Hard Boiled - As Vanilla Townie
Open 485 - Polygamist Mafia - As Mafia Lover
Newbie 1315 - As Mafia Role Cop
Record (Wins-Losses-Draw-Other):

Town - 3-1-0-0
Scum - 2-2-0-0
Others - 0-0-0-0

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