Mini 1555 Board Game UPick Mafia--Game Over!

[Quill]

I still want to hear from Morph if they have anything else to say, but as is clear to everyone, we're stalling and I'm not sure how much more we can get accomplished today. Hopefully we're right, Morph is scum, and we don't have to deal with tomorrow.

[morph the cat]

I will get back to this game in approx an hour. I've found some small slices of time to work on it, but it really needs a bigger swath of time to pull things together.

I think I can work out the stuff I want in the thread for tomorrow before running up against kdub's deadline.

[morph the cat]

So your theory is they went into the day planning to do that, in that way? I'm sorry, but I think you are blunting Occam's Razor with that one.

In Song uPick, the scum team you and SpyreX were on targeted SpyreX for kill one night. It was a strategy for semi clearing him if he was doc-protected with a significant downside risk iirc.

I can't dismiss the possibility that he would go after Madot that way as scum, and that maybe the thing kinda backfired due to Madot not being around before the wagon got pretty solid. aun was practically pleading in the game thread for Madot to come and give an explanation.

And then there was the claim of being neighborized by hiplop after death. Did he share anything at all of hiplop's thoughts from that neighborhood?

[morph the cat]

Hiplop died protecting me. I have 48 hours with him in a QT.
He's pretty gung ho about Kdub at the moment.

This is all I can find about their QT.

[morph the cat]

ok, so something I noticed when I combed through aun's iso earlier toDay was a discrepancy in his reads pre and post kdub's role claim. keep in mind that he claimed later to have role-copped kdub. I've used the area tags on the parts that I think are curious.

Before mass claim:

I've been second-guessing myself far more than is probably healthy, so I decided to think out loud a bit.

Porkens

I have very good reason to believe to be town.

SpyreX

is very likely to be town after yesterday's interactions with Madotsuki

.

hiplop

is also very likely to be town after yesterday's interactions with Madotsuki.

This leaves a scum pool of morph, Quill, Kdub, PeregrineV, and Hadrian.

morph the cat

:

Why they're town

: Madotsuki tried to attack them. They don't make much sense as scum buddies with my other biggest suspects.

Why they're scum

: They talked about Madotsuki minimally but ended up hammering. Also gut/vibes. Also PoE.

Quill

:

Why he's town

: Posts read like they're coming from a town perspective, approaches issues in a town manner. A few of his posts strike me as hard to fake as scum.

Why he's scum

: Seems unwilling to draw attention. I don't like it when people try to slip under my radar.

Kdub

:

Why he's town

: Pro-town play. Seemed genuinely interested in scumhunting on Day 1. Also gut/vibes.

Why he's scum

: Defense of Madotsuki, done somewhat questionably. Posts seem careful. Also lots of my town-reads suspect him.

PeregrineV

:

Why he's town

: Seems confused in some ways, which is town (I think?). Strikes me as today's "easy lynch," if we have one.

Why he's scum

: This slot has given me the least reason to think they're town (PoE). Absence Day 2 fits nicely with Madotsuki's lack of help. Catch-up posts were subpar. Seems uncomfortable under pressure. Also, Surye was… rather sketchy.

Hadrian

:

Why he's town

: Pro-town play. Is focused and stays on task, seems legitimately interested in scumhunting. Some of his posts also strike me as hard to fake as scum (he

is

more experienced than Quill though).

Why he's scum

: Didn't support Madotsuki lynch. Has been borderline role-fishy at times.

All in all, here's my color-coded read list right now:

TOWN
Porkens
hiplop
SpyreX

Hadrian
Quill

Kdub
morph the cat

PeregrineV

SCUM

I'm seriously considering just sheeping Porkens/SpyreX/hiplop, but Porkens already agrees with me, SpyreX hasn't expressed much of an opinion, and hiplop thinks I'm scum so his reasoning's likely off. I think I'm happy leaving my vote on Peregrine (again), though I'm a bit concerned that he's the "easy mislynch." I really don't have a better scumread right now, and it's getting to that point in the day when we really need to be deciding on our lynch.

@morph: In 1084, you accused me of fishing, and I object to this. Everything else looks accurate, save that you're filling in my motivations incorrectly. I did find a (possibly rhetorical) question you asked me which I haven't addressed:

Wants to flip one to clear the other, and chooses to flip hoplop? Why this way and not the reverse given madot's comment about affecting the kill?

From the way hiplop was posting, I thought he had evidence that meant that if he was town, Madotsuki had to be scum; this is why I jumped on him for switching his vote to you. I don't recall finding any evidence that flipping Madotsuki would determine hiplop's alignment either way.

@Kdub's-scumhunting-is-shallow: Interesting point. Going to have to reread for this.

@hiplop: It's not so obvious to me why Kdub is scum. Instead of telling me why scum-Kdub would behave this way, can you tell me why town-Kdub wouldn't?

@Hadrian:

Would you agree with 1067, Hadrian?

You're skimming my posts, aren't you?

his claim:

I'm a

Vote-Betting Role Cop

. I can target a player each night, and I receive a copy of their role PM. If I target scum, however, I secretly lose my vote the next day.

It should be pretty clear who I've targeted. Night 1 was Porkens, Night 2 was nobody,

and Night 3 was Kdub.

Porkens and Kdub are both town. I'll let Porkens explain the whole Night 1 affair when he claims (unless you want me to claim for you).

This means both scum are among {morph, Quill, Hadrian, SpyreX}. I'm currently leaning toward a morph-Quill scum team since morph is my strongest scumread by a long shot and Quill's next. SpyreX is still probably town since he doesn't make much sense with Madotsuki as a partner.

I'm trying to think of what morph and Quill would be trying to accomplish with that roleblock, though. I mean, on the surface it kinda makes Quill look more town, but if I were scum-morph I'd want town to have some verification that I had the role I claimed to be. Maybe he isn't the role he claims to be? I mean, if he's telling the truth he wasn't who he seemed to be on early Day 2. But then if he's discovered, that implicates Quill… I guess he could claim he was gambiting again. His claimed role makes sense to me, though. And morph's the one under pressure.

My next pick would be morph and Hadrian, but their walls at each other certainly make this look unlikely. It could be acting, but I feel like if it was, it'd be a lot more heated. Not counting this out entirely, but it seems unlikely.

If those are both wrong, either SpyreX is scum or it's Quill-Hadrian. I haven't looked at Quill-Hadrian too closely, but I don't remember anything precluding them from being partners except that they've both been town reads for me for a while. And again, I rather doubt SpyreX is scum. The Quill-Hadrian possibility is scary though because that means we lose if we mislynch morph.

SpyreX would theoretically makes sense as a scumpartner with any of the three, I think.

Anyway, if at all possible I'd like Kdub to claim (and use his role) ASAP so we can get hiplop's response. His QT ends 48 hours after daystart, right? That means we have under 7 hours left.

This is really confusing to me. He knew kdub's role before kdub claimed, but was arguing scum-kdub and pushing SpyreX-town beforehand. He pretty much had SpyreX-town throughout the game until that post.

Scum lost daytalk with Madot's lynch. I think this was some sort of misfire. And I think it could point to SpyreX-scum.

If I'm right then scum has played poorly right under the noses of town and we didn't catch the significance. I feel really bad that I wasn't on top of this game on day 3 when some of this was in motion. That actually bothers me more than being today's lynch.

[Kdub]

The thing is, awesome obviously must have known that I was going to claim if I came under pressure, so yeah, I guess it's weird that he tried to go after me early in the day even though he investigated me, but I don't see how that has anything to do with SpyreX.

[morph the cat]

Maybe it doesn't. But, I feel like the read change on spyrex with the claim looks pretty odd. and I still feel like there was a cone of silence - no real negative comments at all about spyrex in aun's iso until that post.

I have some last thoughts about Quil that I'll work on now, if I can stay awake long enough.

[Porkens]

So your theory is they went into the day planning to do that, in that way? I'm sorry, but I think you are blunting Occam's Razor with that one.

In Song uPick, the scum team you and SpyreX were on targeted SpyreX for kill one night. It was a strategy for semi clearing him if he was doc-protected with a significant downside risk iirc.

I can't dismiss the possibility that he would go after Madot that way as scum, and that maybe the thing kinda backfired due to Madot not being around before the wagon got pretty solid. aun was practically pleading in the game thread for Madot to come and give an explanation.

And then there was the claim of being neighborized by hiplop after death. Did he share anything at all of hiplop's thoughts from that neighborhood?

They didn't expect him to get doc saved; they were trying to convince the town there were multiple scum teams. SpyreX getting saved was an accident.

[morph the cat]

Quill

I've gone back and forth on him so many times this game.

I liked his comments and questions about the charter early day 1.

awesomeusername's comment about him avoiding attention kinda resonated on late day 1.

I didn't pay a lot of attention to him on day 2, and night 2 we focused on awesomeusername after all the pingy pleading he'd done to madot day 2. But day 3 his scumreading our slot bothered me in the same way that aun's did, and I had him down as a possible scum partner. aun's foses of Quill were always kinda mushy, especially compared to his attacks on us - and we know those were attacks on town. And that will be knowledge everyone has with our flip, so you can look back at those FoSes and compare what he said about us and other dead town players with what he said about quill and spyrex. And you can look at the difference in his level of engagement with obvtown porkens and the other player he said he had a town read on for most of the game - SpyreX.

Quill coming out at the beginning of day 4 and claiming to have blocked us gave me a town feel at the time. But, if SpyreX is town, I can see scum-Quill wanting to volunteer that info in case SpyreX had investigated him. Later, I did another major waffle at the end of day 4 and was rounding back on Quill. Hadrian and I were in the middle of an argument when aun hammered and brought the conversation to an end.

My brain says Quill looks more like the last scum.

My gut doesn't trust SpyreX.

This is the third game I've played with SpyreX. In the first he was SK and in the 2nd he was scum. He won both games. Compared to the start of this game, there was a sort of oblique angle to his approach to the game that confused me a little - made it hard to see where he was coming from in his reads or what he wanted to accomplish as each new game day began.

The start of this game had a completely different feel, and I thought this was a pretty good sign that there was some town motivation going on. As the days have passed, I've lost that sense.

I'm not usually very objective about my own play, but I'm painfully aware of mistakes, and inattention and how that impacted not only my play, but potentially the game's outcome. So, part of me feels like a 90% confidence I'll flip scum is justified. But part of me knows that this is one of the players immortalized in one of the various flowcharts that occasionally make the rounds in the MD forum. The scum flowchart, whose first decision point is "Is SpyreX playing? kill him" because he's supposed to be that good at scumhunting

And he was good on day 2. But, he's 90% sure that our flip will be scum. Maybe we really did play that poorly.

I think I'd feel better about that read if he's actually scum. And I ask myself how much that plays into my analysis here.

I'm kinda relieved not to be going on to lylo and having to make a choice.

Tonight's kill is going to say a lot. I don't think it will make the Day 6 decision easier to get right.

I think that's it as far as things on my mind that I want in front of town tomorrow. I'm around to answer questions until someone hammers - preferably kdub because he's indisputable town and he may have more thoughts of his own to share if something I've posted tonight sparks any ideas for him.

[morph the cat]

So your theory is they went into the day planning to do that, in that way? I'm sorry, but I think you are blunting Occam's Razor with that one.

In Song uPick, the scum team you and SpyreX were on targeted SpyreX for kill one night. It was a strategy for semi clearing him if he was doc-protected with a significant downside risk iirc.

I can't dismiss the possibility that he would go after Madot that way as scum, and that maybe the thing kinda backfired due to Madot not being around before the wagon got pretty solid. aun was practically pleading in the game thread for Madot to come and give an explanation.

And then there was the claim of being neighborized by hiplop after death. Did he share anything at all of hiplop's thoughts from that neighborhood?

They didn't expect him to get doc saved; they were trying to convince the town there were multiple scum teams. SpyreX getting saved was an accident.

So sacrificing a teammate to advance the wincon is something he's done before.

[morph the cat]

actually he was the teammate in that situation. Anyway. I am not convinced that ockham's razor is as dull as all that.

[Kdub]

If that's all you had to say, I'll give it a few more hours to see if anyone has anything else to bring up, then I will hammer.

[Kdub]

VOTE: morph

[Cabd]

Good luck tomorrow, you'll need it. See you in the dead QT, kdub.

[morph the cat]

Yeah still town.

Good luck!

[The Betting Pool]

Final Vote Count 5.03:

With 5 alive, it takes 3 to lynch!

morph the cat (L-0): Porkens, SpyreX, Kdub
Porkens (L-3):
Quill (L-3):
Spyrex (L-3):
Kdub (L-3):

Not Voting: morph the cat, Quill

V/LA:

Deadline is in (expired on 2014-04-26 19:10:47)

Flip incoming...

[The Betting Pool]

Day Five Lynch Flavor:

The living room was, quite frankly, a mess. Discarded game pieces, pizza on the floor, and the odor of the burned game lingered. The five remaining guests were tired, and still not a single board game had been played.

The Betting Pool threw up his hands in frustration. "This is the most destructive party I've ever hosted. You people need to find the source of all this, and quickly!"

An awkward silence descended on the room. One by one, heads turned toward morph the cat. "What? Don't look at us! We brought a fun party game!" they protested. "See, it's like charades..."

Unearthing their box from the debris, smelly fish and shredded Monopoly money slithered off the cardboard top. "Just innocent modeling clay, a game board..."

But once opened, it was clear that this game would never be playable again. The clay had been mixed with sand, and someone had gone to town with a razor blade. One word was carved into the board's surface: "Wewontplaythisstupidgameeitheryoutwoheadedcatmonstrosity"

And so morph the cat left with their tattered game, departing into the night, leaving behind one distraught host and four guests...not all of whom were sad to see another game bite the dust!

morph the cat was melted Day Five! They were

Morph It!, Town Redirecter-Post Restriction Gifter

!

Night Five begins now. All night actions must be submitted in (expired on 2014-04-20 12:34:56)

If I hear from everyone that they're ready to go to day phase I will start the day early. That will only happen if any and all night actions are locked in.

[The Betting Pool]

Night Five is locked in. More to follow momentarily...

[The Betting Pool]

Night Five Flavor:

Kdub stepped forward. "Well, why don't we eliminate those who couldn't possibly have done this first?"

TBP looked at Kdub curiously. "What do you mean?"

"For example, you couldn't have done this because your game is ruined too," Kdub explained. TBP nodded sadly. "Since we know you didn't do it, we know I'm innocent as well!"

"Why is that?" TBP asked curiously. Kdub smirked.

"I was late to the party, and I've been right next to you all night. How could I possibly have touched anyone's games?" Kdub said with a smile.

TBP thought about this for a second. "All of that's true, and we can account for your whereabouts the whole night." TBP looked down at the much-diminished pile of games on the table. "But if you didn't do it, doesn't that mean your game...?"

"Oh, nonsense. I brought chess, and it's made of marble. No one could have destroyed it," Kdub proclaimed. He grabbed his game form the table and opened the lid. "See, it's perfectly--"

Kdub's face drained of color. "No, it can't be. How could no one have heard?"

The game fell from Kdub's hands. It hit the floor, and shattered pieces of marble tumbled out in a mess of rocks and dust. The pieces of a king rolled to a stop at Kdub's feet. Looking down at it, he mumbled, "I carved this set myself..."

TBP put a hand on Kdub's shoulder as he walked him to the door, apologizing profusely about the lost chess set. As he was about to leave the room, heTBP looked back over his shoulder at the three remaining guests. "When I get back, you'd better have an explanation for what's been going on, and that's final."

Kdub was put in check Night Five! He was

Chess, Town (Activation-Restricted) Innocent Child

!

Day Six begins now...

[The Betting Pool]

Vote Count 6.00:

With 3 alive, it takes 2 to lynch!

Porkens (L-2):
Quill (L-2):
Spyrex (L-2):

Not Voting: Porkens, Quill, SpyreX

V/LA:

Deadline is in (expired on 2014-05-03 21:39:32)

[Porkens]

Quill visited Kdub. Quill, I thought you played a great game. I had you in the top of my lists the entire game. My scum reads were terrible, but that shouldn't take away from my compliment towards you.

Vote: Quill

[SpyreX]

Hey look I'm town

[SpyreX]

Quill

What did you do last night

[SpyreX]

Also to whomever is scum.

I hate you a lot right now. This game makes no sense at this point either way.

[Quill]

Oh cool, thanks for saving me the time of going back through the game and making sure you were scum, Porkens. Any chance you want to explain why you have magical watching powers now?

Vote: Porkens

For the record, I motivated Kdub on the offchance it would do something useful. He was the only person I could confirm was town. </phonepost>