Micro 1073: Purgatory | Martyr PT

[Aisa]

If Bella is scum with Vanders what she’s doing is fine, though the question becomes “why use many words when few words do trick?”
If she’s scum with Ranger or Aureal I feel like I may understand what’s going on a bit better. If she’s scum with Ranger in particular they probably feel that Ranger is at slightly higher risk and need to shift suspicion onto others. Though the townies are doing most of their job for them, in this case.

[Aisa]

If Enchant is scum what he’s doing can only be understood as a WIFOM play. If he’s scum with Aureal I feel like he’s strongly increased the likelihood of one of them being eliminated, whether in this phase or by me. But it’s also not ideal for him to go 1v1ing a townie so strongly? I guess in general he’s calling a bunch of attention to himself. Maybe he thinks he can push Aureal so townily that he will look town after the flip? And hey, I did just say his recent posting has been townier, if so he’s succeeding at least a little.

[Aisa]

Purely going off today, Aureal’s play looks relatively scummy so one key point when considering the slot is whether her earlier play is towny enough to earn her a TR

[Aisa]

Though rereading the last few pages I remain worried that Vanders + Aureal may be TvTing. It kinda feels similar to the time I got into a TvT in ELO. I SRed them, which made them SR me, which made me… etc etc.

[Aisa]

That time I got into the TvT, the other slot’s *positioning* felt like the main proof they were scum. I sort of stopped caring as much about the actual quality of their arguments.

That’s what makes me think this fight could also be TvT: I actually think both slots’ reasons to suspect the other are… pretty reasonable, and they are emphasising aspects of the other’s play in a way that feel compatible with having a little confbias.

[Aisa]

Is enchant right? If we think aisa can get it right, it almost doesn't matter?

Don't you dare give me work now

[Aisa]

This is presumably the rough time we'd start seeing Aureal's partner balk if she's scum, so will be interesting to see if that happens

[Aisa]

I am still interested in this game, just not to the point of having anything new to say about it. Not much is happening in the thread. I will step it up if my help is required again, but kinda just want to see who gets elimmed and take it from there.

[Aisa]

Ranger unvoting seems possibly significant. It would help if she shared a bit more of what was in her head: I can't really tell her alignment just from her popping into the thread and saying she is questioning a read. But she has fair reasons not to, so ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[Aisa]

If i was wrong on Aureal, mafia would already "agree" with my reasoning and vote Aureal out or claim that i am gambitting and vote me.


Aureal is mafia. Like 99.9999999999%.

TBf noone else wants to talk about your plan so I am getting worried that I'm being thick here. But we have two days and noone wants to talk to me about consensus either.

I save your time: I will not vote anyone else. Therefore you can't elim anyone without my help or mafia help (protip mafia will not vote each other)

I don't think this is totally sound? We've been talking all day about how scum can't just quickhammer.

[Aisa]

I may pretend I'm enlightened, but in my heart of hearts, there is a new scumteam I am ready to tunnel.

[Aisa]

Having done an Aureal+BloodB0t iso, their iso is distressingly light on the topic of AurorusVox.

Everyone's ISO is distressingly light on the topic of lemons ^^

[Aisa]

No i mean it doesh't even matter you can lay shit on me like hell, and even if you success, you still lose because Aisa sends you.

So yeah.

Saying this like it's a fact doesh't make it more likely to happen~
I would take the idea seriously if there was a consensus this is what I should do, but there isn't at the moment

[Aisa]

Seems like there’s the most consensus on Aureal, with maybe a chance of Ranger if Ranger is town

[Aisa]

This is presumably the rough time we'd start seeing Aureal's partner balk if she's scum, so will be interesting to see if that happens

Has this happened? Well, Vanders has pivoted a bit onto Ranger, though he generally doesn't make much sense with scum!Aureal. Ranger cased {Vanders, Enchant} (oh how relatable). Ranger + Aureal looks very possible, though it's not quite my top teamsolve

[Aisa]

Just been on a long coach journey so I reread the first half of the game
This is nothing new but I’m very very lost

[Aisa]

Just been on a long coach journey so I reread the first half of the game
This is nothing new but I’m very very lost

I keep opening the game thinking that maybe this time I will solve it. Then I read two pages and my brain just goes “nope. not dealing with how impossibly towny everyone is until they give me a flip.”

But I also still want to solve the game so I keep coming back instead of ignoring this site for the next 24 hours.

[Aisa]

Wow, a last minute wagon on Vanders of all people. He is still my strongest townread so this wagon is pretty terrifying. I think I’d have a better shot of figuring out this game if there were a different flip.

[Aisa]

Hoping Ench and Bella can come in and vote Aureal, cause I doubt those two votes on Vanders are moving, now.

[Aisa]

Subject line: yeet or be yeeted

Ench,

Your options are:

• Yeet "99.9999% scum" Aureal
  
• Be yeeted by me

Make sure to let me know your choice before deadline by posting in the thread! If you don't choose, "be yeeted by me" will be chosen automatically for you.

Cordially,
Aisa

[Aisa]

Oh wow

[Aisa]

Subject line: yeet or be yeeted

Ench,

Your options are:

• Yeet "99.9999% scum" Aureal
  
• Be yeeted by me

Make sure to let me know your choice before deadline by posting in the thread! If you don't choose, "be yeeted by me" will be chosen automatically for you.

Cordially,
Aisa

Also this it not my final action submission obviously I am now going to agonise over this for at least the next 24 hours

[furtiveglance]

Deadline: (expired on 2023-04-10 11:42:10)

[Aisa]

*cracks knuckles*
Ok, it's time to get serious about this. Initial thoughts:

- Right now I am leaning slightly towards yeeting Ranger. I think that her stuff today isn't great. Some of it comes across as nitpicky or overly confident in unlikely scenarios (thinking of the "overwhelmingly likely scum had a strategic realisation" post). Also think the way Vox treated the slot could be indicative of a partner. However, I doubt myself when I read Ranger's Hell 1 posting.
- I think I maybe townread Bella very slightly because no-one gave me the time of day when I proposed sending her to Heaven. I also still think there are towntells sprinkled throughout her ISO, but they don't seem significantly harder to fake than e.g. Ranger or Aureal's posting.
- I don't know if I'll have a lot of new things to say. It feels like I'm still wrestling with some of the same questions I had a week ago (because the pool of slots I'm choosing from is the same), and we've reread this game a

number

of times now. I think what I need to do is sit down and look at how scummy

[Aisa]

This exchange is interesting:

Enchant: VOTE Vanders
Vanders: uuuhh, why? I'm town.
Enchant: Can't wait to lose to some absurd team of Ranger-Bella then.
Enchant: I thinked about possibility that both you and Aureal is town actually therefore my choice was shit anyway
Vanders: why didn't you vote Ranger with me?
Enchant: I thought ranger town
Enchant: That's actually part of reason why i voted you, not Aureal
Vanders: What did you think the team was when you hammered me, enchant?
Enchant: You-Bella