Mini 1380: Tintin Game over!

[Mehdi2277]

I've been waiting to get ven closer to being lynched before set up plans. As for who I block code probably. Whether ven is town or mafia I think code is probably the SK. If ven is SK then I'll block either code or piggy (mainly since code doesn't feel like a bit partner). Sure that could have been staged, but why? Especially when it gave klick an excuse to push for a psyche lynch as well but he chose bit. Bussing can be done without that gambit and just as well. His play throughout has carried minimal suspicion for a reason. Strongest town read I have other then SDP (who really is just because of the fact I blocked them).

[Venmar]

Mahdi I swear if you lynch me for these stupid reasons I will haunt you to death after my lynch if you're town.

You declaring your jail isn't going to help you force the SK and mafia to WIFOM each other out over who kills you, and will leave town in a LyLo tomorrow.

I can't really respond to you if you're case is made up of Bitmap's connections on me, I can't help that even though UberNinja proved it was town points in my favor, and your argument about my reads is BS because I don't think you understand the meaning of PoE in a situation where I can't be wrong.

SDB, please just lynch Piggy and watch as she flips either scum or SK.

( Anyone else find it odd Mehdi is specifically SK hunting...? Would be a huge scumtell if I didn't believe her jailkeeper claim )

[Mehdi2277]

Except if we're in 3:2:1 we lose if we lynch the serial killer. It might be good to realize that.

I'm curious how if I'm town and you trusting me works together.

I've repeatedly replied to the PoE thing so nothing to add there.

Quote uber. On the specific thing I was referring to quote him (how bit wouldn't vote you while suspecting you).

[PiggyGal15]

I don't know Ven, I think it's just you that thinks Mehdi is SK hunting. He seems to adequately be doing both, and has blatantly said he wants to lynch the likelier scum rather than the likelier SK.

Ven, why are you asking Super specifically?

[Venmar]

Except if we're in 3:2:1 we lose if we lynch the serial killer. It might be good to realize that.

I'm curious how if I'm town and you trusting me works together.

I've repeatedly replied to the PoE thing so nothing to add there.

Quote uber. On the specific thing I was referring to quote him (how bit wouldn't vote you while suspecting you).

- Thing is, if we're in 3-2-1 right now, town loses if you lynch me because the scum will kill the SK during the night and endgame the town. GG. Or, SK lives and town is left in 1vs2vs1. This is all assuming you're jailing the right person, btw. Yeah, town isn't going to win if you lynch me and if you want to be responsible for it, be my guest.

That's good. I like it when people contribute more. And I only said that about your playstyle as a jab to see how you would react. I like pushing peoples' buttons. Don't take it personally but I don't like the wagon on Ven and your play is definitely questionable.

Why don't you like the wagon on Ven if you think he is scum?
Did you check open 418? What are your thoughts?

Pedit: lol. That's a pretty stupid reason to think someone is scum. And yes, self-absorbed. But hey, that's Om

How come no one has been talking about a popcorn flavourclaim? All I got was 'lol' from UN.

I think one of you or Venmar (or maybe even Om but he's still null for me) to be scum. Not both.

this post also means tech and venmar are probably town

PEDIT: I know what Mehdi is doing, it's that he seems pretty interested in picking out the SK, you can't deny that.
not sure what it means for Om but I've got an independent town read on the Om slot anyway

[Mehdi2277]

Applies if you're town. I know me and sdp pretty much are. The main point I've been saying against the PoE is it only works from your perspective. Piggy can claim you, code, and klick are scum by poe just like you did just as easily. I very much dislike how hard you're pushing piggy over klick when both are scum from your point of view (a point you still haven't replied to).

I disagree with uber completely then (my main thing on you is the opposite where he said that but took a while to vote someone fosed a lot).

[Venmar]

I'm pushing Piggy because it doesn't matter if she goes before or after Klick. I'm assuming neither of them have a scum pr, so idc which of them goes first. Piggy is the easier lynch, that's the jist of it.

My perspective here is more accurate than yours because you're the jailkeeper, where as I am a VT. In this case I can PoE better than you. You can choose to believe others, that's true, but ask yourself, are you really going to trust a supposed SK ( Code ), a miller claim that came from someone who does these kinds of claims and gambits all the time ( Klick ), and Piggy over me? Think for a second, please.

Uber has been pretty accurate with his TOWN reads so far. You know what his scum reads were before he died? Klick and Code. Everyone else was town, Piggy falls out as the odd one out.

Lol wait, I think i just realized we can't win anymore..... right? Wouldn't it make more sense to lynch the SK today? That would make it 3-2 going into night.. where we could risk a successful jail that would save us. Because I think if we lynch Piggy today, it will be 3-2-1 in the night, and probably 2-1-1 if Mehdi is killed and blocks one of the killing parties. That means that town will still lose because the SK would just lynch the mafia and endgame, and vice versa with the mafia member.

[Mehdi2277]

I've been assuming worst case scenario, but I'm currently leaning towards 4:1:1. It's a risk, but if that's the case code is the best lynch (while I jail keep you and confirm you as town or make you as probably mafia). If sdb thinks it's 4:1:1 and willing to risk that there isn't 2 mafia I'd be willing to lynch code right now.

[Code_X]

Lynching me will mean we'll lose.

I'd lean towards 4-1-1 though. So by all means if you think we should SK hunt then we can.

And if its 3-2-1 we need to lynch mafia.

I'd still lean towards Piggy scum.

[Klick]

Code, are you claiming SK?

[Venmar]

Either way, you should back off of me.

[PiggyGal15]

Guys, our power roles are Jailkeeper and Cop. The only times I've seen a 13-player game with an SK

and

3 scum, is when there are multiple protection roles.

Venmar, your logic is so scummy I don't even know where to begin. We're

at

3-2-1 right now. How in the world will we be at 3-2-1 if we lynch me? Are you saying I'm a magical character who doesn't exist? We'll be at 2-2-1 if we lynch me. And even if we

did

lynch scum, we'd be at 3-1-1, which'll (at worst) turn into 1-1-1 tomorrow and SK wins.

Basically, if we're at 3-2-1 right now, and obviously Mehdi is going to die tonight, along with whoever else the SK wants to kill, we're going to lose. There's no way we can win in that situation unless SK and scum mess up and target the same person. This situation could only be diverted if SK hit scum, or scum hit the SK. But neither party would want to do that, so chances are it's not going to happen.

What I'm saying is, unless there's another protection power out there, I doubt there's still 2 more mafia and an SK.

I also just thought of something, what if the SK is chloroforming and the scum are bashing heads? We're thinking it's the other way around (at least I was) but the SK is almost always bulletproof, and I see no reason why they wouldn't be bulletproof in this game either. That means scum probably either targeted MM or the SK night 1, the SK's kill went through on AP. Second night, scum probably targeted UN, or if they hadn't the previous night, targeted the SK. SK killed DV. Third night scum targeted Techno, and SK targeted UN. If this is the case, I imaging scum probably targeted UN night 2, which makes them not want to target him again night 3, meaning scum probably targeted the SK night 1.

If the SK is indeed bullet proof, the only way we can win if it's 3-2-1 right now is if we lynch scum today, and the SK kill scum tonight.

Long of the short of it, if it's 3-2-1, town's pretty much doomed, if it's 4-1-1, we should still be lynching scum, as there probably isn't even a chance for scum to kill the SK tonight.

[Mehdi2277]

I don't think they have BP. For them to have BP they would be unlikely to have investigation immunity and we have a known dead cop. Scum have to aim for each other since if they don't they'll end up tieing each other at endgame.

[drmyshotgun]

VoteCount 4.3

Venmar - 2 (Mehdi2277, PiggyGal15) L-2
Code_X - 1 (Klick) L-3
PiggyGal15 - 2 (Code_X, Venmar) L-2

Not Voting - 1 (Super Dupondt Bros)

With 6 alive, it takes 4 to lynch.


Deadline is in: (expired on 2012-11-16 22:15:53)

Mod Notes:

[Code_X]

Code, are you claiming SK?

Nope.

You? I still don't believe that miller claim.

Where does no lynching leave us?

[PiggyGal15]

No lynching in 3-2-1 means, at worst, 1-2-1 tomorrow. Possibly 2-1-1, and if scum hit the SK, 2-2-1/3-1-1 (and if the SK isn't bp) 3-1 or 2-2. That means only 3 possibilities can town still have a chance, out of six, so 50%.

No lynching in 4-1-1 means, at worst 2-1-1 tomorrow. Possibly 3-1, and if scum hit the SK 3-1-1/4-1 (and if the SK isn't bp) 3-1 or 4. If this is the case, no matter what happens tonight, town still have a chance tomorrow.

[Mehdi2277]

Piggy the game doesn't work randomly. SK has to aim for mafia. They'd lose vs two mafia most likely there if they don't. SK doesn't win if a mafia member is alive (they need all dead) and mafia doesn't win until the SK is dead and they have half or greater. This is why scum hate prisoner's gambit type situations. In fact 2:1:1 is almost always a town win. If scum shoot town and get shot they lose. If they shoot the other and the other shoots town they win. If they both shoot town they tie. It's literally impossible as scum to win without shooting the other scum in 2:1:1.

[Super Dupondt Bros]

We don't feel like making our decision just yet. Too many players sound honest to us right now, and yet we know someone must be lying.

On the setup though, we feel like we can put our faith in there being one mafia and one serial killer left. Our reason is simply game balance. We lost our cop early and there have been no cross kills, but the other killer has also failed to kill twice, so we have not been particularly unlucky. Could we be on the verge of loss already on day four, after only two mislynches? We think probably not. Two mafia may find it hard to win, but town would find it even harder to win against three mafia and a serial killer.

This does not change much though, as aiming to lynch mafia is still the correct play. If there are two, we need to take out mafia, and if there is one, it does not matter whether we catch the mafia or serial killer, though we have better leads on the mafia and should lynch whatever scum we can find.

On Klick, what we wrote in our last post was supposed to be one half of a case, but it got watered down when we realized the other half was only a misread on our part. However, we remain troubled by Bitmap's last post. By saying he should not have reacted to the daykill gambit he was calling attention to how Klick had caught him. Why would he give credit to town like that? In the previous post Klick also mentioned how his play had been suspicious all day, of which he had said nothing until then. Using Disney Villains Mafia as reason to abandon meta on Bitmap is also a stretch given that Bitmap was not even in that game.

My perspective here is more accurate than yours because you're the jailkeeper, where as I am a VT. In this case I can PoE better than you. You can choose to believe others, that's true, but ask yourself, are you really going to trust a supposed SK ( Code ), a miller claim that came from someone who does these kinds of claims and gambits all the time ( Klick ), and Piggy over me? Think for a second, please.

We very recently found ourselves suspected in another game and tried to use process of elimination from our informed position, so we can appreciate your argument of being able to use it better than Mehdi, or ourselves. You indeed can, if you are town. That of course is the problem here, we can't be sure whether to trust you. We don't think Code_X or Miss Piggy are mafia, so if there were two, they would be you and Klick.

There are however things speaking in your favor. You and Klick being partners makes little sense considering your suspicion of him today, and we lean toward there being only one mafia left anyway. This brings us to something interesting we noticed about your post. You claimed that Klick does claims and gambits like this all the time, which seems to contradict Klick's self-meta. Can you post games where he would have done this?

[Venmar]

Off the top of my head:

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=51&t=22902
A Fire and Ice mafia, Klick automatically claims VT as a fire mafia goon on day 1.

[Klick]

1. I was Ice Mafia.

2. How does that correlate to this situation at all?

[Venmar]

Same idea, different claim.

[Klick]

Not really. First of all, I'm a Miller here.

I can give a bunch of reasons why my Miller claim in and of itself makes me town. Would you like me to?

[Mehdi2277]

That might be worth something if it wasn't a null tell. He fake claims as both alignments (yeah I remember masons and mafia) so it's not really supporting much (and I actually did a town meta argument on him recently for fake claiming).

[Klick]

Except this isn't a fakeclaim, and this started well before Mini Masons and Mafia.

[Mehdi2277]

The main point is you claiming mason isn't really a tell either way.