Last Will Mafia II (Over)

[Battousai]

So close to finishing, about 40 more minutes and it will be done. I'll post this during a break in classes tomorrow. FYI, it's taking awhile because one method wasn't working (the new one, and I got distracted with an Adelish vote analysis from SSBF's post saying Dia was bandwagoning, where I didn't see too much of it.

[Rhinox]

I have no idea what 3/4's of you guys are even saying anymore... just sayin'... These long posts seem to be taking up space without really saying anything.

[Charlie]

Ythan, why do you consider yourself obvtown?

Unvote, vote Ythan x2

to make a statement.

-------------

Rhinox is scum with Ythan. Seriously, if I was scum who had aone-shot kill that everyone knew about, I'd sure as hell use it the same way I would as town. Hell, I may even consider shooting a buddy to confirm myself depending on the specific situation in the game.

Ahem. If this were true than mafia control at least 6 out of 12 votes in addition to those held by their other members needed to win the game. I would be ashamed if this were true. Anyway, I'm going to sheep MichelSablehart in his Last Will vote given to Rhinox so I'm going to go with Rhinox-town.

[Super Smash Bros. Fan]

I am posting this in this game and two others in Theme Park.

Apology for not posting yesterday as I had no time to do so. Unfortunently, I have no time to make a substantial post today either, as I'm behind in homework and other important stuffs that I need to do, plus I had to post in a game that's approaching deadline quickly.

Will post more contents after school tomorrow.

[holycon]

hey guys i'm sill here just on vacation i'm going to try to post once a day things will be back to normal after wendsday

v/la till wendsday

[Xite91]

@Jahudo - How the hell is that not scummy?

[Jahudo]

Motivation. Scum want to look pro town and town want to catch scum. So its in the scum's best interest to attack with the scum tell so they look pro-town for scumhunting. The townie doesn't care as much who gets the credit, as long as the investigation becomes solid enough to have a good idea if someone is scum.

[Xite91]

Motivation. Scum want to look pro town and town want to catch scum. So its in the scum's best interest to attack with the scum tell so they look pro-town for scumhunting. The townie doesn't care as much who gets the credit, as long as the investigation becomes solid enough to have a good idea if someone is scum.

But this barely means anything to the point I was making. No, town shouldn't care who gets the credit, but if they believe someone is scum they will genuinely push for a lynch, there was nothing genuine to posts of his like that. He was trying to get suspicions out there, but wasn't ACTUALLY attacking them so that after the lynch happened of them (if it did) he would not be looked at so much because he didn't actually "start" the attack.

[Battousai]

Don't know the best way to post this, as it spans 23 names and there were over 130 votes D1. The best I could do is the following. To read it better, zooming in would help (cntrl + for many PCs). I just got done with it so I haven't analyzed yet, but the reason I did this was to check SSBF's statement (and then some). He was wrong about Diacria. They were either 1st, second, or third on any wagon (up to the his post). Tomorrow, I'll do more analysis and go on to explain some points I have against SSBF.

[esuriospiritus]

@Battousai: Copy img location > paste in address bar of new tab works quite nicely. You really need to split the window though before screencapping so we can see the top row in every picture.


I am no longer LA. Hooray! Expect a real post sometime in the next 6 hours; going to be doing some re-reading intermittent with chores and stuff. e_e

[esuriospiritus]

Esurio already did the work, but interpretted it incorrectly IMO. If the SV wagon was scum driven, it supports theory #1 above. If theory #2 is assumed, then there is no reason to believe the SV wagon was scum driven.

I don't think theory #2 necessarily has to mean there were not scum on the SV wagon. Any group of -- what was the consensus? 5-8 people? -- is probably going to have diverse enough meta types that at least one scum is guaranteed to be on the wagon either way, imo. The list of non-posters is much more conditional on one of the theories being true (#2, in which scum were sitting back and laughing) than the list of people on the SV wagon. I will agree with you that the latter should get a

lot

more weight on it if theory #1 is true than if #2 is, but I don't think the SV wagon is likely to be made up of all town either way.

Massive votecount dump ahoy

raider8169 (5) - Charlie, Chevre(Jahudo), nachomamma8,

RichardGHP

,

CSL

CSL

(5) -

millar13

,

twomz

, animorpherv1, Amished,

Diacria

RichardGHP

(5)- holycon, xite91, raider8169(Plum), kmd4390, Chronopie

Shattered Viewpoint

(4) - Ythan,

EGL

,

Magua(esuriospiritus)

, Super Smash Bros. Fan
Super Smash Bros Fan (1) -

Shattered Viewpoint

Chronopie (1) - rhinox
Xite91 (1) - pittbunny(Battousai)

Not Voting (1) - Reverse Simplicity(Locke Lamora)

Shattered Viewpoint

(12) - Ythan,

EGL

,

Magua (esuriospiritus)

, Super Smash Bros. Fan, Amished, Charlie, kmd4390, holycon,

towmz

, animorpherv1, pittbunny(battousai),

millar13

raider8169 (3) - Chevre(Jahudo), nachomamma8,

CSL

RichardGHP

(3) - Xite91, raider8169(plum), chronopie
Super Smash Bros. Fan (1) -

Shattered Viewpoint

Chronopie (1) - rhinox

CSL

(1) -

Diacria

Not Voting (2) - Reverse Simplicity(Locke Lamora),

RichardGHP

EGL (9) - nachomamma8, jahudo, Locke Lamora, Charlie, kmd4390,

RichardGHP

, rhinox,

Magua(esuriospiritus)

RichardGHP

(5) - animorpherv1,

CSL

, Amished, Xite91, Super Smash Bros. Fan
Charlie (2) -

Twomz

Super Smash Bros. Fan (1) - Chronopie
Chronopie (1) - holycon

CSL

(1) - pittbunny(Battousai)

Not Voting (4) -

EGL

, raider8169(Plum),

millar13

, Ythan

RichardGHP

(12) – Ythan, Super Smash Bros. Fan, Jahudo, Chronopie, Nachomamma8, Battousai, holycon, rhinox
Super Smash Bros. Fan (8) – Amished, Xite91, Plum,

MichelSableheart

, kmd4390,

RichardGHP

, Locke Lamora
Battousai (1) – animorpherv1
Animorpherv1 (1) –

esuriospiritus

Not Voting (1) - Charlie

Living people on all 3 wagons: no one
Living people on 2 wagons: Ythan, Magua/esurio, Super Smash Bros. Fan, Charlie, kmd4390, holycon, Pittbunny/Battousai, nachomamma8, jahudo, rhinox
Living people on 1 wagon (CAUTIOUS SCUM GOES HERE GUISE): Amished, animorpherv1, Locke Lamora, Chronopie
Living people on 0 wagons (CAUTIOUS SCUM GOES HERE GUISE): raider/plum, xite91

Now, I'm pretty damn certain Xite is town, so let's disregard her. (She doesn't pop up in either of my other "SCUM IS LIKELY IN THIS GROUP OF PEOPLE" lists, either.) Other than that, I see some familiar faces... Raider/Plum, Animorpherv1, Chronopie, and Locke Lamora are all at least in one other list (mind that Locke was in the "people who didn't post at the end of day 1" list because his slot was in the process of being replaced. null lol.) Chronopie is an anti-town lurker who should probably get vigged, that's nothing new. Amished I need to read in iso still, but I remember thinking he was town while trying to catch up. Raider/Plum remains my top scumspect, so the slot's presence here doesn't really surprise me. Animorpherv1's was also on the list of people that didn't post end of day 1, and despite a quick iso of him revealing him to be light on scumhunting and content in general, I still think raider/plum is an actively scummier slot.

Next post I intend to PBPA raider/plum. MOAR PLUM VOTES PLZ.

[Super Smash Bros. Fan]

@Ythan: One of your top suspicion yesterday was animorpherv1. Do you still think that he is worthy of being lynched today?

This is disingenuous - by your logic, assuming I'm a Town blocking powerrole I wouldn't know either, because in that case either I'd have blocked someone other than Richard/Ythan and not known whether a scum blocker went after either, or I'd have blocked one of them that Night and have indicated yesterday that one of them got blocked and we should take that into account. Again, no blocking happening on either of them was an assumption I was willing to list as very probable yesterday, due to lack on Twomz blockage. We didn't have the flip then, so I wouldn't have made assumptions like which of them would've been scum and how scum would've acted then before the flip. Now we do have a flip, and it's proved that Richard was a liar, albeit a Town-aligned liar. Assuming Ythan-Town, no block, scum would've been very confused and yet very happy: Two townies seemed to have caught themselves in a you-or-me-one-is-a-scumbag situation, and might've exhibited, in retrospect, strange behavior because or either cautiousness with the situation (waiting on certain factors to maximize mislynch potential in the event of new information in the ongoing situation) or otherwise (excess enthusiasm, and any behavior out of the ordinary - like Kmd calling Richard Town and Ythan not so much, for example).

While the majority of your argument is good, the one thing I disagree with this is where RichardGHP couldn't have been blocked. Despite his scummy play Day 1 and Day 2 (Which would be a major factor for his lynch Day 3), it is possible that scums could have choosen to roleblock RichardGHP in hopes of stopping the suppose vig kill, since his claim kills a person that he protects, but not targetted by a killing role.

SSBF- I think scum can jump on later, but that is usually a tell of not knowing who would be lynched and not wanting to put forward a strong case to get the wagon forming. In this case, there was reason for the lynch and it seemed that a Ythan/Richard lynch would be inevitable. So, in order to avoid the scrutiny of being near the end of the wagon, they would vote sooner rather than later. This is all WIFOM, but I still believe my theory is more likely correct.

1. I wouldn't say that a Ythan/RichardGHP's was completely inevitable. Two reasons for believing this were Ythan counterclaimed RichardGHP and Ythan's stronger play. Because of Ythan's more believeable claim and more towny play, people believed his claim more then RichardGHP. Sure there was a few people expressing concerns about Ythan (You for a brief period of time is an example of this), but in the end, people clamored for RichardGHP's lynch more then Ythan's.

2. If that's the case, we'll have to agree to disagree on when scums would be the most likely to jump on the bandwagon.

I don't really have anything to contribute, I'm just waiting until it's time to put my obvtown status to use.

You claiming the kill on millar13 and RichardGHP's vanilla townie flip does not indicate you as obvious town. Is it evidence that you killed millar13 with your one-shot inventer gift? Yes, but not an alignment indicator.

And another thing, claiming to not have anything to say is extremely lazy and scummy. There's quite a few things to talk about today and you choosing to not contribute accomplish nothing.

[Ythan]

Maybe someone other than SSBF should repeat that criticism.

[Xite91]

Maybe someone other than SSBF should repeat that criticism.

I already have said something to that effect. It's something I actually agree with him on, but he's still scum

[Ythan]

I'm going to stay active enough in this game to not be replaced out by normal means. That's just the way it is. Also, nothing besides my lack of interest in the game has earned me anything but town points.

[Xite91]

I'm going to stay active enough in this game to not be replaced out by normal means. That's just the way it is. Also, nothing besides my lack of interest in the game has earned me anything but town points.

That's not really true, but for now I'm just going to say that if anyone that loves town has a kill, it should probably hit you. Active lurking is a pain in the ass

[Kmd4390]

If I had a kill, ythan would probably already be dead.

[Ythan]

Then it's too damn bad I got the kill. And used it the way I did that everyone seems to have been pretty happy with.

[Battousai]

Unvote, Vote: Ythan

Actively not scumhunting and relying on the fact that he killed millar so he can coast by and not play. My vote is not moving from Ythan today.

[Ythan]

You're welcome for giving you the opportunity to turn your poor case against me into a vote.

[Battousai]

I think it is about 50/50 that you are scum. I just rather not play with you if you post just so you don't get replaced.


I'll do some more scumhunting for tomorrow's lynch later when I'm at school. This internet is a pain and I can't even see my D1 voting data.

[Locke Lamora]

Someone with 4 votes refusing to contribute any more than what's required to not get replaced makes my head hurt.

I'm going to go back to:

Vote: Charlie

I still really don't see the pro-town motivation for shouting 'hi scum, kill Michel, he's really pro-town!' Any analysis he appears to have done recently seems to be almost entirely based on Michel's viewpoints, not his own.

[Ythan]

Congrats Amished, you just created the worst vote I've ever seen.

If you're going to falsely accuse me, at least provide evidence. Otherwise, stop trolling.

It still makes me mad that we can see a post like this and not be certain that it comes from scum.

By the way this is my "I'm reading isos now" notification.

[Ythan]

I'll be keeping a closer eye on Plum when her turn comes around. That's what she gets for replacing raider.

[Ythan]

vote Super Smash Bros. Fan x4

And that comes before even getting to his own iso. Should not be alive at this point in the game, would not be if I had been more involved thus far.