NY136: The Death of ReaperCharlie (GAME OVER, Town win!)

[Yosarian2]

Don't let him screw with your mind, with stuff like that that, iece. He's a good player, and a good actor, but you know that he is the scum. You've known it for two days now. You know that all the evidence points to that, that that's the only thing that makes sense based on everything that's happened all game.

Why isn't this game over yet? Seriously, taking some time to think things over in a lynch or lose makes sense, but this is getting absurd. We've been sitting here in a holding pattern since Augest 25. You've both read the game over and over again since then, and nothing else is going to change, not if you drag this day out for another month. Just lynch him already.

[Iecerint]

OK, I just read over D5 again. At the time, I had assumed that there had only been 1 scum left, but there were actually 2, and 3 the day before that.

For some reason, this convinced me that CTD was scum, but I forgot why.

[Iecerint]

The only weird thing to me about CTD scum is Hydra's post 1449. This doesn't seem like a good post to make after one partner has just declared intent to lynch the other one...

[Iecerint]

OH nevermind. I thought that was a post about lynching DX, but it's the weird thing where Hydra decides to push a Yos lynch on the grounds that he could be scum with either party...

[Iecerint]

Notes on looking over the VCs:

1. Hydra joins Yos on AGM wagon after Meransiel wagon dies down. CTD goes to DH's wagon, which is otherwise scum-free @ 5.

2. Yos votes with Hydra on Parama the following day. CTD on DH again.

3. MBL *also* joins Parama's wagon, such that 60% of the D2 Parama buswagon is scum. They stay there the entire time.

4. CTD follows Hydra on KJ with his potential breadcrumbing post (D3). MBL and Yos aren't voting.

5. When Yos finally votes, he votes CTD (which is cross-alignment, anyway, but he could've joined either Shanba (which didn't have any scum yet and was @ 4 votes) or KJ (to support dumbtownCTD and Hydra) in lieu of that.

Looking at the votepost itself, he does FoS: Shanba at the same time, which keeps this from being the glorious towntell I hoped it would be...

6. Yos ultimately shifts to lynch KJ, joining Hydra (and CTD).

D4

7. Hydra's plan against Yos was EARLIER than I noticed before. It figures into the very first VC on D4 and is just after DX posts his plan.

8. Yosarian and Hydra had a nice window to lynch DX on August 9th, as prior discussed. Ima confirm things...

CTD adds the 3/5 vote at 4:22 AM.
DH unvotes, making it 2/5 and no longer in quicklynch territory, at 8:52 PM.

If Yos is scum with the Hydra, they are very disorganized. That's a 16 hour window.

LUDI did not post on-site at all during that window.
HYDRA did not post on-site at all during that window.
I can't find THOR onsite anywhere...did he remove his account somehow...?
I can't find YOSARIAN's information, either, so I guess Search literally just crashed.

[Iecerint]

Basically, I am trapped in confirmation bias like hell, or CTD looks like the last scum -- hypo-doctor gambits and some unattractively Igor-like behavior from Yos notwithstanding.

I am inclined to go ahead and vote.

Vote: CTD

Toast, please review stuff a little before you hammer. I'd hate to lose because I missed something after almost a month of stalemate. <_<

[Iecerint]

One point that bothers me about Yos being possible scum is that MBL went on over and over about pushing correct reads on 3/3 scum (sapo, Parama, Yos). This reads almost like it comes from a desire to point at the mega-bus after the fact.

However, the fact that Yos was under a lot of suspicion for thinking that iffy town players like Shanba were town also justifies him putting suspicion on townYos, so it still works both ways.

[Amrun]

VC7.3

(0) Iecerint
(2) CrashTextDummie - Yosarian2, Iecerint
(1) Yosarian2 - CrashTextDummie
(0) ToastyToast

Not Voting: ToastyToast

With 4 alive, it takes 3 to lynch.

V/LA:

Deadline: Sunday, September 25. 11 30pm EST.

Spoiler: Vote History

Iecerint - CrashTextDummie
CrashTextDummie - Yosarian2
Yosarian2 - CrashTextDummie
ToastyToast

[CrashTextDummie]

Iecerint, I am stunned by your bad judgement and your stubborn refusal to see the truth in front of your eyes. One moment you say you think I'm town again and all it takes is a fucking hand wave from Yos to sway you back to his side. And he's calling

me

manipulative. I feel like I'm arguing against a fucking guru who has you under a spell or something. LOOK at how manipulative and deceitful he has been for the past two days and even before that setting up this situation. Just look. Why haven't you called him on this? Why do you accept his evasion when I call him on his bullshit? Good grief.

The only weird thing to me about CTD scum is Hydra's post 1449. This doesn't seem like a good post to make after one partner has just declared intent to lynch the other one...

So after all this arguing, it still doesn't strike you as weird that I counterclaimed the fucking SK and that my play would have lead to what looked like a guaranteed scum loss. You still believe in the fairytale fantasy that I am a scum rolecop or some other such bullshit. There is NO. FUCKING. EVIDENCE. in favor of that theory. There are multiple pieces of evidence that argue against it. The whole thing came from fucking scumbag Yos going "well, CTD couldn't be scum unless he was a rolecop". What you should have taken from that is that CTD COULD NOT BE SCUM, and yet for some unearthly reason you just shrugged your shoulders, put on your blinders and said "makes sense to me". It was a clutch play from Yos to keep someone lynchable, and it was a play he prepared several days in advance because he knew he needed SOMETHING to argue against my claim. How on earth he got this to stick is beyond me.

You are worse than trapped in confirmation bias hell. Not only are you seeing confirmation for your BS theory where there is none, you are actively and willfully ignoring the things that would take it apart. There is NOTHING in that VC analysis you posted that argues for CTD-scum and against Yos-scum (and you called me "dumbtownCTD" at one point, which almost made me do a spit take). You couldn't verify the time stamps for the window of potential quicklynching, but rest assured that what I posted on the matter is accurate. Not even if I were scum would I lie about information that is on public record.

I don't get you, Iecerint. I don't understand

why

you so stubbornly cling to a theory that is so flawed as to be a farce. Is it that Yos-scum looks too simple for you? Is it that you have some irrational fear of being outplayed by a machiavellian mafiate? What the hell is it. There is nothing in Yos' play that points towards him being town. And almost everything that reflects badly on me was either out of my hands (the protection of you over Xanatos) or actively influenced, worked upon and exploited by the scum (my push against Xanatos, my push against Yos over Hydra). You are going to throw this game away and I am at a fucking loss as to what went wrong.

[ToastyToast]

I will think it over one more time today.

[CrashTextDummie]

Are you still leaning towards lynching me, Toasty?

[Iecerint]

I still think your SK counterclaim was weird for CTDscum, as I just stated in my previous post. Your implicit assertion that I have ignored this point is untrue.

You have pointed out several other points that make me doubt that you are scum, too, and I have considered them. There are just too many other things that think otherwise.

There is plenty of evidence to suggest you could be scum of some sort of other.

"DumbtownCTD" is a reflection of the point that most of your reads had been wrong up to that point as town if town. Nothing personal intended, though I can understand how you could take it that way.

Yos-scum actually looks too complicated, not too simple, for me. Hydra's bussing seemed too early, the Yos-Hydra shouting match that continued to develop afterwards was too nuanced, Yos's reads have been too pro-town all game. The main basis for people thinking Yos was scum early on was that he stubbornly had weird town reads on players like Shanba (THOUGH come to think of it, he did FoS Shanba in the post where he made that off-wagon vote D3).

3 hardcore mafia nerds not being on the collective site for 16 cumulative hours during lylo is just very weird to me. I guess it's true of Hydra (Ludi + Thor) regardless of the situation, though....

[CrashTextDummie]

I still think your SK counterclaim was weird for CTDscum, as I just stated in my previous post. Your implicit assertion that I have ignored this point is untrue.

Maybe so, but that makes it even worse for me. I know you've acknowledged all this stuff (unlike Toasty, I'm not sure WHAT is going on in his mind with that scum doc accusation out of left field) and disregarded it, against all logic and reason. I see your reasons to doubt CTD-scum and your reasons to doubt Yos-scum, and I'm thinking what on earth is possessing you to vote me.

There is plenty of evidence to suggest you could be scum of some sort of other.

Like what. I am not aware of any evidence against me that withstood scrutiny.

"DumbtownCTD" is a reflection of the point that most of your reads had been wrong up to that point as town if town.

My read on Yos was correct. My read on KJ was correct. Go ahead and call half of the town, including yourself, dumb for not seeing MBL and Hydra scum. My predecessor actually

did

see MBL scum, when no one was paying attention to him.

Yos-scum actually looks too complicated, not too simple, for me. Hydra's bussing seemed too early, the Yos-Hydra shouting match that continued to develop afterwards was too nuanced.

Why? The scum came into D4 knowing that, in all likelyhood, they'd be occupying 3 spots out of 4 the town would consider the lynch pool. They knew they'd have to bus to some extent if they didn't want to be obvious, and with a scumteam of this caliber, a shouting match like that is not that hard to fake and prepare. Xanatos being a rolecop probably came as a surprise to them, and it looks like Hydra flipped out a little before adjusting to this new revelation. And Yos had to fake some superficial questioning before he could come to the conclusion that Xanatos was "obv-town". Nothing about it looks complicated to me.

[CrashTextDummie]

Iecerint, do you seriously believe that I had knowledge of you being out of shots (either by investigating you on N1 by an incredible stroke of luck, or by investigating you for some reason after you were revealed). Or do you seriously believe, if I did not have knowledge of you being out of shots, that I would leave you alive when it is evident by my play on D5 that I was aware of a guaranteed winning strategy involving your claimed role.

[Iecerint]

Most of the "evidence" against both of you is very circumstantial. In terms of hard evidence, the best argument against Yosscum is that scum had a 16 hour window to win if Yos is scum earlier, and I would've thought that 3 players (Ludi+Thor+Yos) with that much experience would have lurked moar to take advantage of it. In terms of hard evidence, the best argument against CTDscum is that the doctor gambit may've been risky depending upon any ability CTDscum has.

Did DX ever get confirmation that Yos-GF was not a possible explanation, on its own, for his being blocked (i.e. that at least ALSO being blocked would be necessary to explain the result)? I suppose that would be another piece of hard evidence supporting Yosscum.

I'm not terribly impressed with your read on the Serial Killer, which is all your list of correct reads does for me at this point.

Regarding the early D4 bussing -- for example, by securing enough votes on DX, the scumteam could have won outright. Risking storing potential DX votes on Yos is counter-productive with regard to getting enough town-on-town votes to secure the win.

P-edit: First, both DX and I had perceived "winning strategy" roles, so I could see an argument to kill either of us. You may have known I was out of shots, or you might have decided that it was worth it to kill me because you hedged against the possibility of my being on odd night vig in favor of killing the definite-problem Gunsmith.

Second, Yos was also aware of that "winning strategy," because he articulated it on D4, so your N4 WIFOM analysis doesn't differentiate between the two of you, even if I decided it was legit.

[CrashTextDummie]

Of course it differentiates between the two of us. If I am scum, I had complete control over who died that night. If Yos is scum, he did not.

Yos has argued that the scum wouldn't have tried to kill Xanatos if they knew one of the power roles would be protected. The exact opposite is true. Yos and Hydra absolutely

had

to kill Xanatos if they wanted any hope to survive

the next day

. It also gave them a potential opening to attack the doc, one of the roles the town largely considered confirmed and they needed to get lynched, which Yos took immediate advantage of.

You are aware of what a guaranteed win is, right? There is no hard winning strategy provided by a gunsmith that doesn't rely on someone making the right judgement call.

Did DX ever get confirmation that Yos-GF was not a possible explanation, on its own, for his being blocked (i.e. that at least ALSO being blocked would be necessary to explain the result)? I suppose that would be another piece of hard evidence supporting Yosscum.

If I remember correctly, he did get confirmation that his lack of result was the works of a roleblocker.

I'm not terribly impressed with your read on the Serial Killer, which is all your list of correct reads does for me at this point.

WHAT? I could understand earlier how you could see scum making a "most worth-reading wall-post in recent memory" but I certainly don't understand how what you considered "most worth-reading" then would leave you "not terrribly impressed" now.

[CrashTextDummie]

In terms of hard evidence, the best argument against Yosscum is that scum had a 16 hour window to win if Yos is scum earlier, and I would've thought that 3 players (Ludi+Thor+Yos) with that much experience would have lurked moar to take advantage of it.

It is a hard fact that they were not online at the same time. I don't know what went on in their personal lives to cause this, but the time stamps prove that they were not.

Regarding the early D4 bussing -- for example, by securing enough votes on DX, the scumteam could have won outright. Risking storing potential DX votes on Yos is counter-productive with regard to getting enough town-on-town votes to secure the win.

How would you have gone about lynching Xanatos if you were one of MBL/Hydra/Yos? Just pile on all the votes? Hedge your bets? They had to bus at least one partner if they didn't want to stand there with a lone suspect (when several town members assumed three scum left).

[CrashTextDummie]

WHAT? I could understand earlier how you could see scum making a "most worth-reading wall-post in recent memory" but I certainly don't understand how what you considered "most worth-reading" then would leave you "not terrribly impressed" now.

I think I misread. The fact that I caught the SK does not impress you. Well, I'm very proud of it, looking back it was probably the last day we could safely lynch him.

[CrashTextDummie]

Did Yos' behavior on D4 make it more or less likely in your mind that Xanatos was scum/town?

[Iecerint]

My role was only a guaranteed win if you assumed certain things about my role -- like, that it had another shot. Same with DX -- you had to assume proper use of the ability. I think the situations were comparable. I can understand your perspective that they are not comparable, but I think that perspective comes from your having made too many assumptions about my status.

If I were in that scum subset, the subset that plans elaborate bussing ahead of time, I would have made clear that we could win with a quicklynch and to check the thread periodically where appropriate. If I found that I could quicklynch, I would make pithy posts to indicate to my scumfriend that I was online and paying attention. Since a quicklynch wins outright, there's no need to split the vote. Not voting or putting the vote elsewhere in the short term is OK, but making a legitimate case for a 3rd way risks splitting the necessary extra town votes and is self-defeating.

Yeah, my point is that your only non-flipped caught-scum was the SK, and scum have an interest in finding the SK, too. MBL tried to get sapo-lynch-cred, too. I do think the doctor claim to lynch him was a towntell, but, as Yos has pointed out, the only plausible doc at the time that you claimed it was Shanba, and a Town Alien had already flipped.

Yos's behavior D4 helped to legitimize the possibility that DX was town from my perspective. I can't remember anyone else who was really supporting him until he announced his crumb.

[CrashTextDummie]

My role was only a guaranteed win if you assumed certain things about my role -- like, that it had another shot. Same with DX -- you had to assume proper use of the ability. I can understand your perspective that they are not comparable, but I think that perspective comes from your having made too many assumptions about my status.

I had no reason to assume that you were out of shots, or really anything other than a fully working vig, since I would have expected you to claim. But we already went over that.

It's evident by the fact that I protected you that I made too many assumptions, but that's an argument against me being scum not for.

Not voting or putting the vote elsewhere in the short term is OK, but making a legitimate case for a 3rd way risks splitting the necessary extra town votes and is self-defeating.

Define *short term". It took more than 3 days before Xanatos got into lynch range, and both Yos and Hydra had presented themselves as active and opinionated before. I certainly would have raised more than an eyebrow if they had just twiddled their thumbs, they were two of the possible scum candidates after all. There was a general anti-Xanatos sentiment among the town and Hydra was running a "you may not realize it, but Yos is confirmed scum to me" argument that wasn't going to convince anyone to vote outside of Xanatos/MBL. Also define "elsewhere". Where was Hydra gonna put his vote if not on Yos?

And considering that the neighbors had daytalk, it's not unreasonable that the same applied to the scum, re: pithy posts to indicate online status.

Yos's behavior D4 helped to legitimize the possibility that DX was town from my perspective. I can't remember anyone else who was really supporting him until he announced his crumb.

That makes no sense to me. You said yourself that you had believed we were dealing with 2 scum left that day. Who else did you consider to be Xanatos scum buddy if not Yos?

[CrashTextDummie]

It's evident by the fact that I protected you that I made too many assumptions, but that's an argument against me being scum not for.

Worded this incorrectly, you weren't using this argument as a reason to think I am scum. Your stance was that it was neither for nor against me.

[CrashTextDummie]

Getting bad at wording my shit, lemme try again.

You think I made too many assumptions about your role, which is accurate, but you don't seem to realize how that only explains why I'd protect you as a doc, not why I wouldn't kill you as scum.

[Yosarian2]

The main basis for people thinking Yos was scum early on was that he stubbornly had weird town reads on players like Shanba (THOUGH come to think of it, he did FoS Shanba in the post where he made that off-wagon vote D3).

Day 2, I was really confident Shanba was town, I had a really strong gut read on him, and defended him pretty hard, despite being attacked for it.

Day 3, though, I had to take into account that Shanba had defended Parama on day 2, and Parama had flipped scum. (This was the same day I first went after CTD for defending Parama.) That made me doubt my initial read, and Shanba moved from "solidly town" to "suspicious" in my book. It was one of those cases where I was torn between a town gut read on him and solid evidence that he might have been connected to the scum.

[CrashTextDummie]

Yeah, my point is that your only non-flipped caught-scum was the SK, and scum have an interest in finding the SK, too. MBL tried to get sapo-lynch-cred, too.

Couple of things I want to say about this:

1. I just skimmed MBL's posts that day and I don't see where he's trying "to get sapo-lynch-cred". I don't know where you're getting this from.
2. MBL is a flipped caught-scum. It just took me as long as it took you to catch him.
3. I do not accept my failure to lynch Hydra as a point against me. I had the choice between two scum and happened to go for the one who's still alive.
4. If you hadn't been out of shots, you

could

add Hydra to my list.