Mini 1402: Low Budget Mafia - GAME OVER

[Jun]

imo, DV looks really bad for hammering day so early on townie INAUFTA. Looks like he wanted to stop discussion and hammer before INAUFTA had a chance to post and get people to unvote him.

[Jun]

Yesterday DV was a much better lynch than INAUFTA and I still think DV is the way to go today.

[Jun]

Rainbowdash - probablyhider
2birds1stone - tracker clear
girth - cleared by DV
Jun - town
Human Destroyer - tracker clear
DeasVail - claims JOAT with girth clear

Think about it. If all the PR's are legit and their clears are legit then it's who? Me and nobody? This AND ARGUMENTS ABOUT BALANCE tell me that between DV and RBD there is at least one scum. I guess I must assume from this that RBD doesn't want me to lynch DV because then we'll know that RBD is the lying PR?

Maybe this makes DV seem townish after all. I want to hear what DV has to say about whether he thinks RBD and himself both can be PR's.

[Jun]

If DV suspects RBD I'd be down to lynch RBD I think. He hasn't come clean about his role and is really unclear about it. Both DV and RBD actually.

If it's RBD then I'm still not sure who his scum partner could be though since girth and DV would be clear, there are tracker clears and me but I know I'm not scum despite how hard RBD tried to buddy with me.

I wonder what results DV got last night because he should share them ASAP.

I really don't think we should no lynch today though, and I think RBD is becoming scummier and scummier for suggesting that.

[DeasVail]

I think it's possible that RBD is town, but also that she is scum. My main thoughts on RBD is that she is townish for the way she claimed and her attempts to coordinate the night actions. Some of her play, however, seems scummy to me.

Also, I didn't do anything last night for a 1v1 to occur and have no useful information that I haven't already disclosed.

I'm not sure about the no lynch. I have an idea as to who I'd lynch if we decided to though.

The problem is I don't know if Mafia have a powerful role here that would make this setup (or what it appears to be anyway) more balanced. In my opinion, ninja would not be a great role to have in this setup as the ninja can just do all the mafia kills until it dies with no risk of track and my role is very limited as an investigative one, but maybe it could be here?

[Jun]

Thoughts on Dannflor (I pretty much think he's scum though):

-The most town thing about him is him always going on about how he was going to die.

However, there are lots of scummy things:

-The gambit itself has many flaws.

If either HD or INAUFTA were scum, then scum would know that he was fakeclaiming and obviously the plan wouldn't work then

. Him being suspected would be likely to stop him from being killed by the scum. Tracker's not so amazingly useful that it would be considered worth it. I think these things would be likely to stop a town player from attempting what Dann has claimed to have done.

-He's trying way too hard to pretend to be a cop with all his speculation about godfathers and scumteams. Surely at some point he would realise that with him confusing the town so much, it would be a much better idea just to stop and come clean? And how he goes from "the PRs are town" to there being likely scum among the PRs is based on him being the cop, not him being a VT. It's much more likely from his play that he's scum pretending to be the cop than VT.

-His claim is way too late. As town he'd be much more likely to reveal it once there was significant pressure (e.g. once I had claimed), but as scum the gambit explanation is much more likely to be a desperate attempt to avoid lynch. The fact that it came when it did is much more likely from scum than from town. This is backed up by posts like 1853 not containing the confession for some absurd reason? And 1861! He's obviously trying hard there to maintain that he's the cop. Obviously if he was VT there it wouldn't matter nearly as much anymore.

Basically there's no way I'm not going to vote for Dann. I want to wait a bit though just in case RBD has any thoughts regarding night actions in light of recent events.

This makes me think that DV is potential scum with HD. HOLY CRAP. I think I made a breakthrough.

Human Destroyer did not visit anyone

Vote: INAUFTA

Bacde tracked HD on the night that mafia no-killed. I believe that DV and HD are the 2 remaining mafia and here's why:

1. I'm just going to assume that DV didn't realize that there was a traitor in the game (although it's kinda unclear based on not knowing what the role card meant). DV posts in criticism of Dannflor's cop claim that "If either HD or INAUFTA were scum, then scum would know that he was fakeclaiming and obviously the plan wouldn't work then." I think DV didn't realize that traitor Dannflor who rolecopped HD was trying to indicate to the mafia team (with HD since INAUFTA flipped town) that Dannflor was the mafia traitor. Instead DV assumes Dannflor is just some fail citizen and will use his claim to get him lynched.

2. The night that mafia no-killed, it was pretty obvious (imo) that Bacde would track either INAUFTA, HD or me based on the three of us being the non-clears. INAUFTA and HD were mentioned by Dannflor, so IMO it was most likely for Bacde to track INAUFTA or HD in case Dannflor was trying to tell the mafia something with his cop clear picks. Basically this boils down to the mafia realizing that there is a 50:50 chance that HD (mafia) will be tracked by Bacde.

3. DV perhaps is a mafia role that can't kill, so HD must perform all the kills but he is trackable? Or DV decides that it's best to no-kill and pretend that he has a JOAT doctor action to build his towncred and so HD won't get tracked. IN ANY CASE, WE SHOULD REMEMBER THAT HD IS NOT A TRACKER CLEAR BECAUSE THE MAFIA KILL DID NOT GO THROUGH ON THE NIGHT HD WAS TRACKED!


I'm becoming more and more sure that I want us to lynch DV or HD today. RBD, what do you think of this?

[DeasVail]

This makes me think that DV is potential scum with HD. HOLY CRAP. I think I made a breakthrough.

I think it's impossible for me to be scum with HD (I basically counterclaimed Dannflor)

[Jun]

This makes me think that DV is potential scum with HD. HOLY CRAP. I think I made a breakthrough.

I think it's impossible for me to be scum with HD (I basically counterclaimed Dannflor)

It doesn't make it impossible. You probably didn't even know there was a mafia traitor.

Ok, well if it's not you and HD, then who is it? Tell me who it is.

[DeasVail]

In response to your other points:

If it's just me and HD, then that means there were 2 scum (please don't try to argue 3 scum + traitor with me being scum because that just doesn't work)

I am experienced enough to know that in a 13 player game that probably means that there is either another scumteam/(maaybe SK) or a traitor (often the mafia are actually told that there is a traitor if there is one, but that's not definite)

Night 1, I would know that it was our kill that went through and no other, so 2nd mafia team/SK is less likely, I have to consider the possibility that Dann is a traitor.

In response to 2: killing Bacde means that he can't get his track result out. Killing is just the better option there, especially since if he tracks INAUFTA, then that incriminates HD even more.

I don't know what to say to the last one except that I don't think I would do that as scum. Also I think it's extremely likely that the mafia did actually target Bacde because I wasn't suspected at that stage, so if they thought I would be protecting Bacde they would have just killed me (I think).

[DeasVail]

I'm not going to say who I think the scumteam is if we're no lynching.

[Jun]

Out of the people Bacde didn't put on his townlist

I'd say it's definitely me and probably DV that are also town

That leaves INAUFTA, Jun, and girth

So I'm okay with those 3 lynches

HD's iso is full of a bunch of active lurking. He just presents himself a little better than Kwll.

Also check out this nice post where HD declares that he and DV are the most probable town.

DV, if it's impossible for you to be scum with HD, then is it possible that HD is still scum with ___________(non-DV) as a partner?

[DeasVail]

But I'm actually not sure. I have in mind the one I most want to lynch, but it's not based on role info or anything.

HD is definitely possible scum.

[Jun]

In response to your other points:

If it's just me and HD, then that means there were 2 scum (please don't try to argue 3 scum + traitor with me being scum because that just doesn't work)

I am experienced enough to know that in a 13 player game that probably means that there is either another scumteam/(maaybe SK) or a traitor (often the mafia are actually told that there is a traitor if there is one, but that's not definite)

Night 1, I would know that it was our kill that went through and no other, so 2nd mafia team/SK is less likely, I have to consider the possibility that Dann is a traitor.

In response to 2: killing Bacde means that he can't get his track result out. Killing is just the better option there, especially since if he tracks INAUFTA, then that incriminates HD even more.

I don't know what to say to the last one except that I don't think I would do that as scum. Also I think it's extremely likely that the mafia did actually target Bacde because I wasn't suspected at that stage, so if they thought I would be protecting Bacde they would have just killed me (I think).

There was literally no reason for the scum team to kill Bacde over you when you hadn't used up your doctor JOAT action. The reason why you're still alive is most likely that you're scum. imo.

[DeasVail]

Scum didn't know I had a doctor JOAT action.

[DeasVail]

Or that I would even be targeting Bacde (I remember thinking that night that I sounded like I had more of a townread on RBD that day, so even if they knew, she was a possible protect from their PoV)

[Jun]

Let me just pull up a few more posts. I think Dannflor's cop claim transitions nicely into a stealth mafia role cop result-giving claim where he calls HD out as the godfather. I assume here that godfather is trackable (could be found by Bacde) so Dannflor must have investigated him at some point.

Wow... I have no idea what to do think right now. I believe DV's claim, but that does seem to make this game a little town sided... I want to believe Bacde is town, I believe DV's claim, and I know I'm town. I really have no idea what to think.

Are there certain games where there are a ton of PR's? On both allignments?

I'm almost 100% positive scum has a godfather

, what if scum had a ton of other PR's to? In order to balance out towns PRs. If so, a lot of our investigations could be null, however I don't know how often a game like this comes up with so many PR's.

He's sure that scum has a godfather because he found it in his night actions!

I don't really have anything to say in my defense, I wished I'd played better. However, if I get lynched, and when I flip town, please lynch Jun.

Also note either HD or INAUFTA will be town. While one of them is the godfather. Right now, I'm thinking the scum team might be Jun/2birds/and either INAUFTA or HD. Which ever one is the godfather.

Actually, I'm thinking HD is the godfather here.

He hopped on my wagon pretty easily right after RBD voted. Seems kinda suspicious, like he was just waiting for someone to open the gate for him.

I REALLY feel like this is Dannflor telling HD that he is the mafia traitor and knows that HD is the godfather. I mean, why does he immediately assume there is a godfather in the game to begin with? And why does he assume it's HD and not INAUFTA? I'm not sure that the argument Dannflor presents in his quote above makes much sense to me.

And HD's response.

I find it amusing that you guys are assuming there's a godfather

While there certainly could be one...what if there isn't one?

Sounds a bit like scum who was caught!

VOTE: HD

Whether or not DV is scum with HD remains to be seen. However after rereading some stuff I'm positive that HD is the godfather, and it seems like DV is probably scum with HD.

[Jun]

VOTE: Human Destroyer

In case my abbreviation above didn't count.

[Jun]

Just remember that HD is not a tracker clear because scum didn't kill on the night that HD was tracked by Bacde!

Not ruling out HD and anyone else as a scum team yet, but I'm positive it has to be HD (as the godfather) after re-reading some of Dannflor's posts.

2b1s I'm going to assume is clear b/c tracker results on a night that mafia killed. Also Dannflor didn't call 2b1s the godfather and make a big deal about 1 of INAUFTA/HD being godfather.
RBD I'm going to assume is clear b/c of general towniness.

HD scum implies one of Girth/DV is also scum. Girth is cleared by DV's cop results so if HD is scum then DV cleared Girth so it's DV and HD.

If it's not DV, then it's HD/RBD.

Scum is either:
HD/DV
HD/RBD

I say we lynch HD today and then regroup tomorrow after the night kill and see if DV has any new results to clear himself or what.

[DeasVail]

I'm not against the idea of your post, but I don't think it's likely there's a godfather.

The tracker clears assume that one of the mafia has a PR that targets people (e.g. Roleblocker)

Actually I'll just get my thoughts out now.

Jun, first off, if you're mafia, I think you've played really really well. If you're town, you're pretty cool too for being so town.

I think the 2 scum are in [HD/2b1s/RBD].

Most likely HD/2b1s but HD is the one I'd most want to lynch (for being the most scummy and Jun's points are not bad)

[Jun]

I protected Bacde (with a Doc ability) and I assume that this is the reason for the lack of kill.

I still want to think about the traitor and who's the likely scum here, but right now I think that the rolecop ability is an important clue. I'm not sure though whether it means he didn't know the scum (rolecop ability could be used to help find the scum as well as town PRs) or if it meant that he did (would have maybe had a cop ability instead if he didn't and the rolecop ability was mostly for finding town PRs and somehow being able to communicate them to main-scum?)

I was thinking during the night that one of his cop innocents may have been on someone he knew to be scum so that they would know that he was the traitor, but I'm not sure.

Sorry about my thoughts being a mess. I'll think on it and hopefully return with clearer thoughts.

Bacde, I don't want to rush you, but I'd like to hear your track result at some point.

Bacde, can you ask the mod if you're told when you're roleblocked?

Alright I just asked

but I was told that Human destroyer didn't make a visit though so it seems like I wasn't roleblocked

Thanks. I agree that it's probably what we think it is, but I wanted to clear it up just in case.

Alright I just asked

but I was told that Human destroyer didn't make a visit though so it seems like I wasn't roleblocked

So if it's not HD then it's INAUFTA/Jun? Not possible. I'm not scum.

Before we lynch any of HD/INAUFTA/Jun, we need to find out which PR is scum fake claiming.

I'm not too concerned with this right now.

This is a really strange DV/Bacde interaction:

Why does DV think that Bacde could possibly have been role blocked? This may seem a bit weird, but if RBD has a town role that prevents people from receiving night feedback do you think DV's role might be one that can change someone's night feedback? And so he was checking to ask Bacde what feedback Bacde received to see if the way DV used his role worked as intended? I mean... We have no claimed role blockers here, so I'm mystified why DV said this. I remember it confused me a while ago but just digging this up to re-examine.

[Human Destroyer]

So, assuming Dann would've been my scumbuddy, he would've screamed to the world I'm a godfather?

Do you even listen to yourself talk? That would probably be the most retarded thing to do. Ever.

Also, what reason would there be to have a GF in a setup where the only role that could tell that is a JOAT with one shot? It doesn't make sense balance wise really.

Also am I the only one who thinks the DV/Jun interaction looks fake?

[DeasVail]

Oh, please be saying that I'm scum with Jun. That would make my day.

[Human Destroyer]

You are

I'll explain it later when I'm not running out the door

[girth]

i reaally like the HD vote because the scum team is HD/2birds

Dannflor's whole dave absta wasnt a 1 v 1 and girth is scummy for saying it is all a defence of Dave. Either he started the game knowing the scum team or he had a rolecop result on Dave

[girth]

Bacde is town... nuff said.

I am so at odds with myself over kwll. I can't decide whether kwll is really just that bad, or scum. Either way, he's not helping town, so could be viable for a lynch.

INAUFTA is reading mostly town for me right now. Also, 2birds, you used to be my top town read, but your sinking lower with your latest posts. Why most INAUFTA be scum? While absta was scummy sure, INAUFTA is convincing me otherwise. I haven't seen anything scummy from him yet. What specifically if scummy about him? Please name something from INAUFTA, not absta.

Post #1042 is scummy as hell. It's like girth is desperately trying find a reason to vote Dave. Also Absta vs Dave? 1v1? WTF
I was a heavy attacker on absta, I was attacking him to. Girth, this is lying, that was not 1v1, you are trying to single out Dave here. This is poor scum hunting and just plain scummy in my eyes.

Vote: Girth

I'm happy with a girth or kwll lynch.

Yeah Dave, I have town reads in Group B and I'm becoming closer to having a scum read on 2birds. Also, girth, you completely ignore the fact that absta vs. dave was not 1v1, a few other people got involved to (myself included) nor did it originate from those to, you are making stuff up to throw suspicion on dave.

The reason I voted girth, was because of his extreme tunneling on Dave, where he kept misrepping him and trying desperately to defend INAUFTA and get a wagon going on Dave.

One thing that caught my attention about girth was how he kept trying to point out that there was a whole 1v1 situation between absta and dave day 1, as if he was trying to single out Dave. This is untrue to, it was not 1v1, nor did it originate from Dave, many other people (including myself) were involved.

Not directly, but as soon as suspicion is thrown onto him, he starts a attack on Dave using a fake 1v1 situation between Dave and absta to try and make it look like Dave is scum, and INAUFTA/absta is town.

About to head off to bed (sorry for low activity, internet has been on the fritz), but Triangle, in response to your question: There is no 1v1. This is a situation girth attempted to create in order to single out Dave. The point is, girth made out as if there was a 1v1, but this is a misrepp. More coming tomorrow.

The reason I kept bringing up the 1v1 point, was because it's such a big thing. Misrepresenting people is NOT town. Also, I wasn't sheeping if the point had been mostly dropped and I kept bringing it up.

I was actually the only one (I believe) who pointed out the 1v1 situation was truly fake, and the only one who kept mentioning it, that's scummy?