Open 765: Haunted Village (Over)

[Hoptic]

Unstuck and RCE are online, this is useful

[NaCl]

Yeah, okay.

So Hoptic is town, because...
1. RCE is still my top suspect.
2. One of Vorkuta and Titus is scum and I'm thinking it's more likely Vorkuta right now.
3. I don't see scum Hoptic saying 1156 if he's with RCE.

Although I don't see why there's a point in wanting to go after Penguin first if RCE flips scum, I'd rather do the next lynch in Vorkuta/Titus.

[NaCl]

Er, for 3, he's not saying 1156 if he's with RCE and Vorkuta, rather.

[Hoptic]

I don't think we get the n1 kill we did if PP/Gamma are both scum.
Don't think you're scum.

Leaves me looking at

(UiC/RC) + Vork + (Gamma/PP)

I'm leaning towards RC out of the first set fairly significantly right now. Leaning towards Penguin with more of an error margin in the latter set.

What are you thinking on Unstuck @Nacl?

-Hop

[NaCl]

I'm looking through all of the major events and considering the possible teams, I'll have a fuller post in a bit.

Right now, if it's RCE and Vorkuta, then I think it's more likely for PP to be the scum, because of the quick wagon on Fake-PP on D1.

Although, if it is Vork+Gamma as 2 scums, what is Titus's incentive to vote for Vorkuta at this state? It only confirms one of them as scum, right?

[Hoptic]

Realistically I'll be putting my vote down on RC in 2-3 hours then going to bed.
I'm not sure if Hectic will be around to talk before then.

-Hop

[Hoptic]

I'm looking through all of the major events and considering the possible teams, I'll have a fuller post in a bit.

Right now, if it's RCE and Vorkuta, then I think it's more likely for PP to be the scum, because of the quick wagon on Fake-PP on D1.

Although, if it is Vork+Gamma as 2 scums, what is Titus's incentive to vote for Vorkuta at this state? It only confirms one of them as scum, right?

It only confirms if scum are able to coordinate. Not sure they take that risk when they can just wait the days out. They only need one in the townblock. I'm (virtually) entirely ignoring d3 for the purposes of analysis at the moment.

(RC/Vork/PP) is where I'm most leaning at the moment.

[NaCl]

RCE + Vorkuta + PP

: I think this is the most likely option.

RCE + Vorkuta + UiT

: Possible.

RCE + Vorkuta + Titus

: I don't see why Titus would vote for Vorkuta at this state if this is the team.

RCE + Titus + PP

: I don't think this team would have killed Beta Sapphire N1.

RCE + Titus + UiT

: This is possible, I guess? But I'm finding it kind of unlikely. My main hangup is I don't see why scum Titus would vote Vorkuta right now in this scenario.

UiT + Vorkuta + PP

: I voted for RCE and both these guys posted after me, they could have hammered but didn't.

UiT + Titus + PP

: This team just plain wouldn't do a N1 kill on Beta Sapphire.

Hoptic + UiT + Titus

: Wouldn't kill Beta Sapphire.

Hoptic + UiT + Vorkuta

: Kind of complicated, but I'm thinking that if Vorkuta is scum, RCE must also be scum, so nah.

Hoptic + RCE + Titus/Vorkuta

: Nah, I just don't think so.

Right now, I'm thinking it's RCE + Vorkuta + (PP/UiT) as the most likely scenario. I don't really know why scum Titus would be voting Vorkuta in this scenario...unless there's some way where she didn't read or it's safer than taking a stance?

So far I've been looking at reasons to exclude teams, I'll need to look back and see what's more likely, but I think PP is more likely than UiT right now.

Hoptic, why is your way of looking at things different from mine? I'm not sure where the Titus/PP option is from.

[Hoptic]

I don't see PP/Gamma killing Beta night 1, even with RCE. He townread them a lot and wasn't super townread.

Plus I don't see where you'd fit a Zombie in that team. I never got a zombie sense from RCE since he was lying low instead of getting involved during the day and giving Zombie to PP/Gamma doesn't gel with the way they townread each other so easily early game. I can't really see a space for a zombie in any combination of PP/Gamma/X except maybe Vork, but that's a stretch since the interactions there don't make me feel like it's super likely.

Thinking about it, scum probably don't want to scumread their partners early on/make it ever look like there's scum within (x and y) since they knew there was a vig. I've been overlooking their knowledge of the setup containing a vig. Makes Uit/RCE look even less likely. I should look where PP/Gamma were trying to boost others up with their towncred.

-Hop

[RCEnigma]

Unstuck and RCE are online, this is useful

I'm here but like. It's discussion about me and not with me. So I'm not super into it.

All of the language has been flip me and then deal with tomorrow. But the game ends on my flip so there is no and then.

[RCEnigma]

I don't see PP/Gamma killing Beta night 1, even with RCE. He townread them a lot and wasn't super townread.

Plus I don't see where you'd fit a Zombie in that team. I never got a zombie sense from RCE since he was lying low instead of getting involved during the day and giving Zombie to PP/Gamma doesn't gel with the way they townread each other so easily early game. I can't really see a space for a zombie in any combination of PP/Gamma/X except maybe Vork, but that's a stretch since the interactions there don't make me feel like it's super likely.

Thinking about it, scum probably don't want to scumread their partners early on/make it ever look like there's scum within (x and y) since they knew there was a vig. I've been overlooking their knowledge of the setup containing a vig. Makes Uit/RCE look even less likely. I should look where PP/Gamma were trying to boost others up with their towncred.

-Hop

Not ignoring the beta kill but I acknowledge yeah it looks pretty bad on me however it's sliced. Nothing I can do about that. I don't feel like I laid low either of day 1 or day 2. I pushed hard on plat day 1. I pushed on beta day 1. I should have gone with my gut on day 2 and pushed harder for UiT over plat but I fell into groupthink/ not wanting to be wrong on both beta and plat.

I was. That and the lull today I've kinda lost interest in the game. A scum flip might motivate me again but I probably wouldn't bet on it tbh.

[Hoptic]

can you try and convince us on Unstuck?

[RCEnigma]

I don't have a smoking gun, just the interaction between me, him, and plat where he pushed the nk in my direction but backed off as soon as plat pushed him on it being scummy.

I guess zombie kind of makes sense with a UiT team that's worried about him being lynched early. Because at this point it would have to be him, Vork, or nacl on the role. But not UiT/nacl together I think I've mentioned already.

[RCEnigma]

So I don't have Aha! Moment evidence that will flip people off of me.

[Hoptic]

Thinking about viges, mafia have a reasonably strong incentive not to hammer the PP wagon since that's the obvious vig shot if they leave it. Ideal case for mafia is a failed wagon on town then another wagon on town.

Don't think Hectic's coming alone at all and we haven't heard from the mod so I guess we have to either
1.) lynch now even though we shouldn't be and may be physically unable to (the mafia would have to decide to bus, or gamble on whether we get an extension
2.) Assume we're getting an extension and just treat the game as 'result nullified due to outside influences'

Like people can become confirmed town/scum due to this and we are being forced to lynch now because we haven't heard about this so the game is going to be swung by the fact we haven't heard back unless we hear within the next twenty minutes when I'll be forced to vote.

-Hop

[RCEnigma]

Thinking about viges, mafia have a reasonably strong incentive not to hammer the PP wagon since that's the obvious vig shot if they leave it. Ideal case for mafia is a failed wagon on town then another wagon on town.

That's assuming scum knew day 1 that plat wasn't the vig.

It also kind of puts a hole in PP's statement that Gamma wouldn't have a reason to start the Tris wagon as scum when you think of the pr hunting angle.

Which was kind of the reason I let gamma slide away.

[Hoptic]

VOTE: RCEnigma

Not much choice left.

[Hoptic]

I'll help out as well.

VOTE: RCEnigma

-Hectic

[Hoptic]

Oh wow nice to see you Hectic.

-Hop

[Hoptic]

Woah, fancy running into you here, Hop. Really is a small world.

-Hectic

[Hoptic]

Hm, I keep thinking the posts you're making here are coming from me. What if you changed your avatar to avoid confusion.

-hop?kirk

[Hoptic]

I like my avatar though. Maybe you could PM the admins to change your name? I mean, why did we both pick the same name anyway?

-Hectic

[NaCl]

I almost didn't make it in time.

VOTE: RCEnigma

[NaCl]

Wait, that wasn't a hammer.

Hoptic, um...are you around to switch to Vorkuta? Because if PP is scum, and Titus is town, then he can just not show up, and I think we lose?

I haven't ever seen this come up, but do mods ever extend the deadline after the deadline has passed?

[NaCl]

Well, I really hope there's a retroactive deadline extension, because otherwise...