Minvitational Game 1

[jeep]

No, just innocents.

vote: no lynch

-JEEP

[Samadhi]

How many living innocents do you have? Not who, just how many.

[Jalyn]

As all the numbers seem to show this as our best bet.

vote:no lynch{/b].

[mith]

*~thinks~*

Yeah, actually, I think it does matter how many innocents jeep has. Consider the following:

If jeep has two innocents, plus himself, there are 3 known (to jeep) innocents. As long as we don't lynch one, or the Doctor, there will be 3 knowns tomorrow as well (at least), since jeep will investigate.

So, basically, if jeep has two innocents, he can just reveal who those are, we'll lynch someone not on that list, and the game is over. If we go after the Doc, the Doc comes out. Even if a Mafia lies and claims Doc like IS-scum, either the Doc will be on the known list (in which case we lynch the scum and have 1 scum left out of 3 unknowns, jeep investigates and we win), or the Doc won't, and we just lynch one of the other two unknowns. No matter what, jeep can investigate.

So, yeah,

Vote: no lynch unless jeep has 2 innocents

[mole]

Yeah, that was my original plan.

Vote: same as mith

Really don't like these strategies though - they do work, but they're really boring. Hopefully the next game will be a bit more balanced so we don't have to resort to this.

[mith]

Yeah, this game is too dependent on whether the Cop catches a scum before he or the Doc dies.

Do we get to argue whether there is luck in Mafia yet? I ought to run a simulation to see how much of a factor the first night choices have on this setup. I can't be bothered though, I just got the Colley Matrix programmed.

[mole]

And to get the last post/page thing working...

[jeep]

unvote: No Lynch

I know two innocents that are still alive other than myself. That means we have 3 known innocents and four unknown, with two of the unknowns being mafia.

Do we know if there is a godfather in this game or not?

So let's assume no:
7 living, 3 known innocent

So if we lynch today we have:

• 6 living, 3 known innocent, 2 mafia
  Tomorrow, I know both mafia....
  
• 6 living, 3 known innocent, 1 mafia
  Tomorrow, worst case, we have 5 living, 3 known. We lynch an unknown and have 50% chance of win there, if he is townie, then the next day we have 3 living, one mafia, two are known innocent...

How does this sound:
I pick a name of someone I have not investigated. If that person claims doctor, we unvote and ask the real doctor to revel himself/herself. If no one does, then we vote one of the other three, since two of them must be mafia. If someone denounces the doctor, we believe the denouncer IF he/she is on my list of innocents, otherwise we give everyone else a time to reveal themselves as doctor. If no one else does we lynch one of the remaining unknowns. In the unlikely event that all four of the unknown players reveal themselves to be doctor, then we don't lynch today.

If that person does not claim doctor then we lynch that person and win. If we lynch a townie, we are assured a win.

Jalyn, mith, mole, Quailman, Samadhi, Werebear remain alive in addition to myself...

Anyone see a hole? If not, then I'll pick a name, that person will claim a role, and then we'll lynch that person if he/she doesn't claim doctor.

-JEEP

[mole]

This is what I have been pushing for since last round - luckily the mafia kindly avoided shooting the people you investigated so the plan would actually work. :)

One might assume that all four unknowns are not going to claim doctor, since one's an innocent townie... in the unlikely event that that happens (even more unlikely now I've pointed it out ;), we'll have four known innocents and the win...

[Quailman]

I sort of want to avoid a no-lunch. This is Mafia. Lynching is what we do. I guess that means Jeep has to name someone not on his list of innocents. I'll just cross my fingers and hope I'm on the list.

[mole]

No lunch? Who could possibly want that?

[Werebear]

So by the time I view the thread Friday night after the wedding I went to, it's already locked, and IS is swinging (BTW, yay jeep, and Antrax? Touche. *shakes head*) and now I get to check in, and we're already ahead a page! I'm going to worry about lynching for a while, then post. I'm not sure I like the numbers if we string up a townie, or even worse, the doc.

Werebear

[Jalyn]

If we lynch a townie today, we'll go into evening with 3 known innocents, 2 mafia, and one unknown innocent. If the final innocent is killed or investigated by jeep, the game is pretty much over, jeep tells us who the two remaining people are that he hasn't gotten as innocent and we lynch them over the next two days.

If the final innocent is still alive and jeep finds a mafia: If the doc is still alive, the game is again basically over, jeep will know all but one living role for the end game.
If the doc dies tonight, the end game will be one mafia, one known innocent & and unknown innocent, with the game hinging on the actions of the last known innocent.

If we lynch a mafia today, we go into the evening with 3 known innocents, one mafia, and 2 unknown innocents. By day tomorrow, jeep will either know the last mafia, or be down to one unknown innocent and one maf. If the unknown townie was lynched tomorrow, the last maf would be known - as it would be the only living person jeep wouldn't have investigated.

Sorry, had to work out the scenarios for myself

unvote:no lynch

Jeep? Who would you like us to lynch?

[mith]

I'm mapping out the whole situation now, I missed the 1 known, 1 unknown, 1 Mafia situation Jalyn points out. So far I've completely mapped the situation for:

Doctor not on jeep's innocent list, and we lynch today.

Town wins in all lines, expected value with random choices and best play is 3 innocents alive at the end (best 4, worst 2).

It's really long, this may take a while.

[Werebear]

Mole and I had a little converstaion on AIM chat, and he convinced (read: browbeat) me that lynching was a good thing. I was leaning that way anyways.

Vote: Lynch.

Jeep: your call.

Werebear

[mith]

Eesh, the no lynch scenario is *way* more complicated. Still working on it.

[jeep]

OK... Werebear, are you the doc? If you say no, you get lynched.

-JEEP

[mith]

Ok, I give up. The no lynch lines have too many possibilities. But it seems pretty clear that lynching is the best bet.

Basically, the only way the Mafia wins is if:

The Doctor is one of the innocents jeep checked.
We lynch a Townie.
The Mafia kill the Doctor tonight.
And jeep finds one of the Mafia tonight.

So, yeah, looking good for us.

Actually, now that I look at it, I don't think it makes any difference if jeep goes ahead and reveals who is on the list. If we lynch scum, we win either way, and if we don't, I don't think it really helps the Mafia any knowing who is on the list (they still have to kill the Doc).

Besides, if I'm on the innocents list I want to have input.

But anyway, I'll go with whatever jeep decides. After I get back, anyway (going to get my hair cut and other fun things).

[mith]

Dang it, I missed something yet again.

If we don't lynch, then the same things have to happen for the Mafia to win, I think. In other words, the Mafia still needs the Doc to be on jeep's list, kill the Doc tonight, and jeep get a Mafia tonight. The odds of the Doc being there are 1/2 either way. However, with an extra player, the odds of the Mafia getting the Doc decrease, and the odds of jeep investigating a Mafia also decrease.

So, I think that means no lynch is slightly better?

Unless I'm missing something once again. I'm so lost, too many possibilities.

[Jalyn]

I don't think so, mith.

If we no lynch today and the doc is killed tonight (and is one of jeep's investigations), it doesn't matter what jeep finds tonight, we can lose the game.

If he finds a mafia and we lynch, the next day we have one known innocent and two unknown townies and one unknown mafia.

If he finds an innocent, we have (tomorrow) 1 cop, 1 unknown townie, 2 mafia and 2 known townies. If we lynch the unknown townie, the game is over.

[mith]

Oh yeah, you're right. Gah, my little notepad thing is all confusing.

So, what say you, Werescum?

[mith]

(Also forgot that since we wouldn't be lynching, there wouldn't be the extra 1/2 for lynching Townie or Mafia.

I'm determined to get through all this mess sometime. )

[Jalyn]

Oh, and one other thing, I don't think jeep should give out his known innocents. As, I think, the only way that the mafia can win is to hit the doc and a known innocent, it gives them half of their target.

[jeep]

I'll only give out my list of innocents AFTER the doc is killed.

-JEEP

[Samadhi]

OK... Werebear, are you the doc? If you say no, you get lynched.

w00t! Good choice!