Mini Game 26 - Night Three!

[cuban smoker]

It would be my interpretation that the crossbow and dismembering were done by the same person. Usually the mods go to great length to show if someone was conveniently killed twice. It's usually quite humourous to them when that happens.

Also, the phrasing of the death, with bolding rearranged to show just how much it can affect the way you read it:

He was shot with a crossbow

and then

dismembered with some kind of sharp weapon.

Looks to me like this is comparable to "he was shot

and then

buried", or "skinned

and then

had a moth placed in her throat".

I stand by it. I think DarkBlade is the gun wielder.

[Dourgrim]

AAAGH!
Dourgrim: Sorry. Didn't mean to cause offence. Newbie nerves, or attempt at humour, that's all. I would have been the first to post except you beat me to it, so I had to re-write mine, hence the name calling.

No offense taken... which is why I referred to them as "random insults" rather than "despicable slander".

[Mickey]

I'm a newbie - trying to make sense of all of the posts.

I tend to agree with the 3 killer theory.
1) crossbow / Captain Blicero
2) club / Green Crayons
3) gun / ? unsuccessful attempt

Cuban Smoker are you discounting the 3 killer idea? if so please explain the logic behind your thinking. I agree with the crossbow and dismemberment probably being the work of one killer.

[cuban smoker]

I did not miss the gun shot in the night scene. I do not discount the possibility of there being 3 killers. However, I believe that 3 killers is a lot, and leads me to look VERY suspisciously upon someone assuming there are 3 killers.

I have made mistakes like this! They are small, but when you catch them, they can give you a mafia or a SK!

If you must justify it to yourself, its better than random voting. Jesus.

[Mickey]

If I am reading you correctly - you are attributing the murders that took place to two different killers (Green Crayons killed by mafia, Captain Blicero killed by another killer) but the gunshot was a random firing.
Is this correct?
Maybe 2 killers besides mafia would be unlikely - but then again which would be most likely?

... a random firing that means nothing?
... a mafia miss?

I lean towards the 3 killer theory.

still not ready to cast a vote.

[cuban smoker]

I could attribute the gun shot to many things.

A third killer, yes, but also
A second mafia attempt,
An armed townie
Part of one of the other kills, say a firefight.

The fact that DarkBlade made the assumption is VERY suspiscious to me. I will reiterate this 'till the cows come home.

[Mickey]

very interesting, I defer to the voice of experience.

[mneme]

I don't know. It looks to -me- like there are four "potential" killers (gunshot, club, slice+dice, crossbow), but that it's clear from the textual evidecne that the slice+dice+crossbow were intended to be the same, very wierd, killer; I'd be inclined to say it was a classic mafia-style killing...if it weren't for the fact that he was Mafia.

So my guess is that he was killed by the serial killer....either that, or there's something weird going on.

Now, as far as the gunshot... my -guess- would be an unreliable vigilante or some role that uses a gun in a non-lethal way; we don't really have proof that it was ever intended to murder someone.

Vote: Jeep

(random)

[d8P]

A second mafia attempt

IMO there's only one family, with a Godfather, and probably one other remaining maf (1Gf

and

the brains of the op doesn't sound right). The mod said that Capt B had a book called:

Protecting Your Godfather From Nosy People

and said he was the brains of

the

local mafia

group

.

So a second mafia attempt is veeeeerrry unlikely.

But 2 maf + Godf + 2 killers seems too weighted against the town.

Moo?

[Dourgrim]

It seems

highly

unlikely to me that we'd have 3 different killers in a mini-game... unless, of course, we're aiming for the fastest town loss in history. 2 killers is enough for us to deal with, thankyouverymuch. The theory of an unreliable armed townie sounds right... or perhaps a doc protected someone from an armed townie, or something like that. Basically, it's all guesswork at the moment, but I'd have a hard time believing that we've got 3 kills/night against us.

Which leads me to our first-day vote decisions... the only way we get any kind of information on day 1 is by lynching someone, which is usually random unless someone says something suspicious. Darkblade immediately jumped to a conclusion that would generally be unthinkable in a minigame, unless one had information to verify that conclusion. However, even if he is the one with the gun, I think we've clearly established by now that he's probably not a baddie (see above paragraph). Therefore, perhaps we should lynch someone besides him to slightly increase our chances of lynching a non-innocent.

unvote: Darkblade

.

So who do we lynch? Well, we've got a couple of folks that aren't saying much in this game at the moment... most notably Baby Face Nelson, jeep, and Doomcow, none of whom have posted since this game began. Doomcow is currently attempting to destroy his liver via the Carnaval festival, if memory serves, so we can't fault him for that... so I say let's get the silent ones moving and see what happens. Flipping a coin, I come up with

vote: jeep

.

[d8P]

Indeed.

Unvote: Dourgrim. Vote: Babyface

Silence is by no means golden.

[Mickey]

Could it be possible that one of the killings was performed by a vigilante - which would be a town role.
That would make 3 possible kills per night...
1 - vigilante
2 - serial killer
3 - mafia
One is an attempt at a "good" kill, another though malicious could go either way, and the last is always aimed at wiping out the town.

Now I'm just trying to match the weapons with the possible killers.

The clubbing and crossbow / dismemberment I am pretty sure were the work of serial killer and vigilante - though I am not sure whom did which,
but the smoking gun I am fairly certain points to mafia.

Mafia might try to put that weapon as far away from themselves as possible by saying the gun was used by a townie.

FOS: Cuban Smoker

vote: Dourgrim

[Dourgrim]

OK, so you think the Mafia missed last night, and you therefore think that I'm Mafia because I didn't think

(explanation of my possible change of heart below)

there are three killers? *shrug* I don't see the connection. My doubts on there being three killers are purely based on game balance: a mini-game with three separate killing parties seems a bit unbalanced to me, although I'm fairly new to the game and I could be wrong.

Furthermore, you're 100% right about me placing the gun with a townie being a stupid theory... assuming that our beloved mod is writing things thematically the same as most other Mafia games I've read so far, the Mafia kill will most likely be via a gun, the SK kill will be the most gruesome (in this case, the dismemberment), and a Townie kill will be something with little or no finesse (like clubbing). Crap logic on my part last post, I guess... However, I was not intentionally trying to distance myself from the gunshot... oddly enough, I never even stopped to consider who did what (i.e. which killer used which weapon). I guess I should've taken that into consideration before I posted. Anyway, what I'm really trying to say is: good thinking, Mickey, but don't jump to conclusions based on my feeble attempt at analysis.

So, let's consider: if you're right and the Mafia kill was stopped but two other kills went through, then we're screwed, because that means we've got a Vigilante who has begun the game by killing people randomly, a SK who doesn't really care who he kills, and the Mafia. Unless we have some really lucky docs out there, we're hosed, plain and simple. If, however, we only have two killing roles, then we get no farther than we already are.

I'm fresh out of ideas at the moment, so I'll keep my vote where it is for the moment until we can spark some more discussion.

[cuban smoker]

Where the hell is DarkBlade? I want to hear him respond to my accusation. I'm becoming more and more convinced.

[Darkblade]

Note to all: I go to a military school. Free time is something which I don't have a lot of. Hense there will be days I will not have the time to respnd to the x number of games I participate in.

Well didn't I miss something. I get accused of being scum because I said there were three killers. This arguement holds no water. That third shot couldn't be from a vig. The vig won't kill the first day as chances are he'll hit a townie. I don't need "extra information". I just need my brain. Cuban's crusade against me for pointing out there were three killers makes me heavily suspect he is the third gun person and he is trying to blame his crime on me.

VOTE: Cuban smoker

[cuban smoker]

This is weak and doesn't address my primary concern at all!

The fact that the conclusion

was

made suggests to me that the gunshot probably came from DarkBlade. I only listed a vigilante as a possibility. As well, some vigilantes are forced to kill. It should be noted that DarkBlade has effectively denied being a vigilante, which eliminates the only nagging doubt in my mind: "maybe DarkBlade is firing guns as a vigilante..."

Maybe there are 3 killers, maybe there aren't. There are many scenarios under which there are only 2 killing groups. Why did DarkBlade assume there were 3? In my opinion, it is quite likely this assumption was made because DarkBlade knows who fired the questionable shot.

confirm vote: DarkBlade

[Mickey]

"3 killers is a lot, and leads me to look VERY suspisciously upon someone assuming there are 3 killers."

per CubanSmoker

Minigame 7 is one of 3 games (including this one) where Polotet served as Mod. In that game victims suffered at the hands of 3 killers - serial killer, vigilante, and mafia.

...3 killers doesn't seem that unusual to me. What does seem unusual is that someone would be accused because of their excellent observation.

Which is more of a leap... noting that there are three killers or jumping to the conclusion that anyone who notices must be the shooter? I think it is very possible (even likely) that our moderator is using a formula that works.

Unvote: Dourgrim
Vote: Cuban Smoker

[cuban smoker]

But even DarkBlade is now claiming it is unlikely that a vigilante is the 3rd killer? Don't you see?! a supposed 3 mafia (brains, gf ?, and probably something to go with the brains, say pinky) + 1 Crazy killer + 1 more killer who DarkBlade doesn't believe to be a vigilante, although he DOES believe there to be THREE killers, means that there could be 2 mafia groups, or 2 SKs in a minigame of 12 people!

Why do I seem to be the only person that this doesn't sit well with?

Watch carefully as I use other people's arguments to support my own:

mneme suggested the gun was fired by an unreliable vigilante or other non-lethal way. This possibility has been discounted by DarkBlade. If DarkBlade is innocent townie, see below;

d8p notes that the books give good clues as to there being 1 mafia group, as well as a godfather, and probably a 3rd mafia to go hand in hand with the brain;

Dourgrim points out 3 killers is a lot, unless there is an armed townie. Say, a gun wielder who scared off his attacker. Maybe there are 4 people who can kill! But if this is so, why would DarkBlade not even hint at this? Maybe DarkBlade is an innocent townie, see below;

Mickey wondered about Vigilante. nope;

So... maybe DarkBlade is innocent townie, with no vigilante role or anything: Why not try to support this idea by agreeing with the general consensus: A vigilante role wielding the 3rd weapon?! DarkBlade has discounted the possiblity that he is a vigilante. So, DarkBlade is innocent, has assumed there are 3 killers, which must be 1 mafia group and TWO Serial Killers, one who cuts people up, and one who uses a gun or a club, PLUS the 3 mafia.

I reiterate: Am I the only one this doesn't sit well with?

Occam's Razor: DarkBlade knows there's an extra killer the town cannot confirm exists. That is, he fired the gun

[Dourgrim]

You're not the only one, CS... quite frankly, I'm not sure what to think at this point. I certainly agree with the majority of your hypothesis, and the entire situation makes me more than a bit suspicious, but I'm not completely convinced of Darkblade's guild as a result. I guess I'll have to settle for a

FoS: Darkblade

. For right now, I'd rather use my vote to wake up the unusually-silent jeep... time to talk, jeep, and soon...

On another note (pardon the possible nitpicking):

That third shot couldn't be from a vig. The vig won't kill the first day as chances are he'll hit a townie.

This is incorrect. The third shot

could

be from a Vigilante, but it certainly

shouldn't

be. Any armed Townie that starts shooting randomly on Day 1 deserves to be lynched, but it does happen occasionally... semantics, I know, but the possibility must be seriously considered if you're going to logically stand by the 3-killer theory.

[Mickey]

cuban smoker,

truly you have a dizzying intellect...

Darkblade's innability to specifically define the 3 killing groups doesn't shoot holes through the 3 killer theory, nor does it shed any light of suspicion on him.
In regard to who fired the gun, who used the crossbow, who weilded the club - these are unknown to all except the very criminals responsible - so in this case ignorance speaks to innocence.
The possibility that a doctor is in our midst keeps me from agreeing at this point with the non-lethal firearm theory. I think it is possible that it was a missed kill.
I don't think anyone is disputing the idea that mafia still consists of a Godfather and a hitman as d8p noted.
In regard to Dourgrim's view that 3 killers is alot -
again, 3 killers in one game is normal for our moderator - minigame 7.

With that in mind would speculating that the gunshot came from a possible 3rd killer (who missed his / her target) be an admission of guilt - I don't think so - is it grounds for lynching - there is no way.

In regard to the Occam's Razor

Darkblade: 3 killers?

i think it was speculative meant to encourage dialog. (note the question mark)

- should we hold you to your quote as well?

cuban smoker: Yay! Go Mafia! ... I mean... heh.

[mneme]

I have to agree that voting for someone because they came to a reasonable hypothesis seems suspicious -- would Darkblade have advanced the "three killers" theory if he believed himself to be the third killer? Maybe...but then, he might advance it if he believed himself to be the doc who saved a victim from said third killer.

unvote: jeep
vote: cuban smoker

[Darkblade]

More free time means more rebuttal of arguements against me:

The fact that the conclusion

was

made suggests to me that the gunshot probably came from DarkBlade. I only listed a vigilante as a possibility. As well, some vigilantes are forced to kill. It should be noted that DarkBlade has effectively denied being a vigilante, which eliminates the only nagging doubt in my mind: "maybe DarkBlade is firing guns as a vigilante..."

Maybe there are 3 killers, maybe there aren't. There are many scenarios under which there are only 2 killing groups. Why did DarkBlade assume there were 3? In my opinion, it is quite likely this assumption was made because DarkBlade knows who fired the questionable shot.

How does me thinking there are three killers have anything
to do with me being the third failed killer? We know that at least one of the killing group is, by nature of the game, the mafia. The mafia is almost everygame I've witnessed, shoots people. Hence, the shot is most likely from the mafia. Yes, adressing Dourgrim, there may be a very dumb vig out there, but the possibility of this is

very

slim, especially sense we all seem to know what we are doing. When I looked through the mod's post I saw two kills (I personally have a feel the Capt's kill was by one, but there may in fact be by two killers) and the gunshot that didn't kill anybody, and hense I felt it was pretty obvious there were three killers. I mentioned it before my random vote simply as a reactionary statement as opposed to a "I know for a fact that there are three killers" Hell, the third gunshot could have from a suicidal leporous prosititute for all I know for sure.

So... maybe DarkBlade is innocent townie, with no vigilante role or anything: Why not try to support this idea by agreeing with the general consensus: A vigilante role wielding the 3rd weapon?! DarkBlade has discounted the possiblity that he is a vigilante.

Huh? To be innocent one has to agree with the consensus? How bogus is this? Wouldn't an evil person go with the flow and agree against his convictions? Moreover, how do

you

know that there are 3 mafia members? Why not just GF, the leader and killer and Brains, a mafia cop, perhaps? Or maybe there are two and it is split up between the Brawn, killer, and the Brains, framer? If we want to play the "how do you know?" game, the focus should be on you.

So, DarkBlade is innocent, has assumed there are 3 killers, which must be 1 mafia group and TWO Serial Killers, one who cuts people up, and one who uses a gun or a club, PLUS the 3 mafia.

You counted the mafia twice, btw. I think it is wise for me and others to

Confirm Vote: Cuban Smoker

[jeep]

Well, I forgot Isurvived night 1 in this game and then I needed to get my role information from the mod again.

Reading through the night scene, I actually thought that there might be FOUR killers:
GC was clubbed to death
CB was shot with crossbow
CB was dismembered
Someone was shot and protected by doc or vest or some such thing

I thought that was excessive and thought for a few... A vigilante that killed night 1 should probably be lynched for the huge risk they took, unless their role only kills mafia (a la the Flying pumpkin... but he had to AIM one night to kill the next). So I eliminated that possibility and thought maybe the gunshot was not related to kills. I don' tknow what it could be related to, though.

Then I read the discussion about three killers and am surprised at Cuban Smoker assuming that Darkblade must be one of the killers. Makes me think that maybe HE is the one who shoots AND dismembers... so he knew there were only two plus the shot...

However, the real reason that I am going to:

vote: Cuban Smoker

is because he is twisting logic so much it's not longer recognizable as logic. I have been impressed with CS in general and this seems like someone trying to manipulate the town more than someone trying to enlighten the town.

-JEEP

[Dourgrim]

This has gotta be the most interesting Day 1 I can recall...

I'm on my way out the door to go to work at the moment, so I don't have much time to explain things, but I'll

unvote: jeep

since he's finally posted... and, at the risk of seeming to be a shameless bandwagonner, I'll un-

FoS: Darkblade

and

FoS: CS

because I too think perhaps his logic is flawed... not to mention the fact that he went from arguing in favor of his chosen target to arguing in defense of his theory somewhere along the way, which to me smells like perhaps the possibility of a cover-up.

I'll read more and post more cogently later tonight, and I'll decide on whether that FoS should become a vote.[/b]

[d8P]

Cuban Smoker: 4 (Darkblade, Mickey, mneme, Jeep)
Babyface Nelson: 1 (d8P)
Darkblade: 1 (Cuban Smoker)
Dourgrim: 1 (Chiromancer)

Not voting: Babyface, Doomcow, Dourgrim.