Cold War Mafia - GAME OVER!!

[Sotty7]

9th vote count of day 6

Enigma - 3 -

Lowell, The Fonz, Sathoris

Sathoris - 3 -

ThAdmiral, bvoigt, Enigma

Not voting - 1 -

PeregrineV

• The deadline for the end of day six is Friday 27th May @ 9pm CST
  
• With
  7
  alive it takes
  4
  to lynch.

[PeregrineV]

__________________________________________________________________________________________

Since ThAd is town, that leaves Enigma as one of the last two American scum.

Which means, one of the "Soviets" is lying.

I pick Lowell to be lying, leaving Sathoris and Fonz.

TheFonz's play has seemed to be town, so that leaves Sathoris as the last Soviet.

Peregrine, this is important. One American mafioso must have claimed

Soviet

. Not Soviet satellite. There is a two-claim disparity between American claims and Soviet claims, the obvious explanation for which is precisely one American American claiming to be Soviet town. In the situation where you are town, Sathoris is Soviet and Lowell is American. For Lowell to be town, it would require me to have read you wrong, and you be American, while Sathoris is Soviet. I really don't think I'm that likely to be wrong, though.

If you beleive the American to be claiming Soviet, then we should be lynching Lowell. Sathoris is claiming satellite, and bvoigt and I are regular Soviet.

@TheFonz- Can you help me understand better why you are voting Engima, and then spend a page arguing math with him after trying to convince him to vote Sathoris? It's a little confusing.

Yup. Arguing the math was simply a case of him trying to assert that it was not that unlikely a wagon of eight had no scum on it, and my counterargument was to try to demonstrate to the rest of the town that it really, really was.

I want him to vote Sathoris for the reasons that I outlined before all the math came up: I don't believe that anyone other than Sath or Enigma would be a reasonable vote today. I think you're Soviet, and therefore don't want to lynch you today, because lynching the Soviet mafia might actually be worse than lynching town. As I said, town will be in an unwinnable position unless either this lynch or Bvoigt's vigging hits American, and I'm basically certain that one of Enigma and Sathoris is American. I personally prefer Enigma, because I trust VCA and actual play more than I do setup guessing in this instance.

OK you lost me. Sathoris is claiming Albanian, Enigma is claiming American. Lowell is faking Soviet, or all three could be faking. Why is lynching the last soviet bad? Why is lynching an American better?

______________________________________________________________
@Bvoigt: I think what you're getting at is this, no?

Mikhail Bulgakov, Soviet Townie, Writer

- I have the ability to post as much as I want to in this thread. I can also write long and complex PMs to the mod regarding the game.

@bvoigt, I am a Vanilla Townie, but my guy was some writer. It says Mikhail Bulgakov, Soviet Townie.

He appeared to claim that 'writer' was part of his actual rolename, but then went back on it. Couple this with the being dead during the cold war issue, this really, really looks like a fakeclaim to me.

Not a fakeclaim, and yes, until bvoigt claimed I want confusion among the mafia. If they think I'm a PR, then they don't hit the real vig. But since bvoigt claimed, it doesn't really matter.

Before anyone hammers, I want everyone to answer this: you do know what to do in a 2:1:1 endgame, right? Because it's possible we might face that tomorrow.

No, what are we supposed to do?

If we lynch the last soviet, and bvoigt hits american mafia tonight, then we should be at 4vs1. If we lynch american, it goes to (2:1:1) worst case and town win best case.

[PeregrineV]

EBWOP- NM, we only have 7 left. Need to recalculate.

[The Fonz]

I'm not really getting what your saying here- I really do assume the mod made it 12/12, but Che is part of the West only geographically, so at that point I don't really know if it's exactly 12/12, but it doesn't matter at this point.

But going by that theory, Walesa is of the Eastern Bloc 'only geographically.' My role is Eastern, but absolutely not communist. So if those two balance, that still leaves one more commie claim than capitalist.

[PeregrineV]

Yes, that one claim would be Lowell. The reverse would be if all three are lying, then Sathoris and Lowell are American and Enigma is Soviet. That seems rather unlikely, so going with simplest- Lowell is lying American (or Lowell is last Soviet, and Sathoris is lying American).

[PeregrineV]

Current 4:2:1
Lynch american, vig american- 2:1:1 worst, town win best.
Lynch american, vig soviet- 2:2 worst, town win best
Lynch american , mis-vig- 1:1:1 worst, town win best
Lynch soviet, vig american- 3:1
Lynch soviet, mis-vig- 2:2 (US mafia win?)

I think this is right. Lynching American and we are counting on mafia crossfire for town to win outright. Lynch Soviet and bvoigt needs to be sure.

[The Fonz]

If you beleive the American to be claiming Soviet, then we should be lynching Lowell. Sathoris is claiming satellite, and bvoigt and I are regular Soviet.

No, because we also know there is an American who didn't claim Soviet (ruling out the ridiculous scenario where the Soviet claims Americans and both Americans claim Soviet), and my town read on ThAd is strong, and you almost never see eight-man wagons without any scum, let alone on town. So I'm sure there's American, not Soviet, American scum between Sathoris and Enigma, and both those slots are also very scummy in their own right. Therefore lynch one, if he's scum the other is likely town, if he's town then we vig the other, is the better course of action. I don't want to lynch Lowell, because while I think the most likely scenario is that he's American, there's too many moving parts there, and he's individually more townish than the other two. I'm more confident that ThAd is town than that you are specifically Soviet and not American.

OK you lost me. Sathoris is claiming Albanian, Enigma is claiming American. Lowell is faking Soviet, or all three could be faking. Why is lynching the last soviet bad? Why is lynching an American better?

*Sigh* I explained this already, I wish sometimes you'd be willing to go back in the thread and actually read stuff.

There are more living Americans. Therefore, they are the greater threat. An American lynch could actually lead to a town win overnight between BV and crosskills. Or we could have a 3-1 endgame tomorrow if there's one crosskill- worst case scenario is 2-1-1. A Soviet lynch, meanwhile, could actually lead to a town loss overnight if bvoigt misvigs. I've mellowed on this a little, since it's entirely possible for BV to not shoot overnight, but even then it's 3-2 Lylo with town having to lynch right twice in a row to win.

Hang on, as I type this, I realize that if we lynch Peregrine and he flips Soviet or town, that confirms Lowell as American, and he can then be vigged. So scratch that entire train of thought. PV is a fine lynch today.

unvote, vote: PeregrineV

Not a fakeclaim, and yes, until bvoigt claimed I want confusion among the mafia. If they think I'm a PR, then they don't hit the real vig. But since bvoigt claimed, it doesn't really matter.

This just seems absurd. You claimed with the word 'townie' in your claim post, and state that your flavour tells you only that you can write stuff, and expect us to believe you thought it might hint to the scum you were a PR? Squirming scum is squirming.

[The Fonz]

Although now I'm thinking, even if the above does happen, we'll probably have to choose between Sathoris and Enigma at some point. I'd rather do it when we have the safety net of a vig.

Bah.

unvote

I need to think about this.

[bvoigt]

You know what? I might as well just claim. Yuri Gagarin, Soviet Even-Night Vigilante. I killed Nacho and Steph. This shows that the game has at least some flavor symmetry, FWIW...one vig is an American astronaut, the other is a Soviet astronaut.

I saw this in the voting patterns, when I was looking the living players votes. The person you most voted for was the vig target the following night. I almost came out and said it, but then remembered the whole odd/even day thing.

This more or less confirms peregrine as town in my mind. Surely he would have killed the vig if he was scum.

I disagree. Peregrine, if he's the last Soviet, would probably prefer to keep me alive since I was defending him. I've changed my mind about him, though.

@Fonz: Those are pretty valid points, IMO. I also noticed that BotS, despite having a strong feeling that you were both scum, never wanted to vote you. (This makes Fonz close to confirmed town if Enigma flips scum. Not that he's going to be lynched anyway, but it's something to keep in mind.) I'm willing to vote for Enigma.

@Bvoigt: I think what you're getting at is this, no?

Mikhail Bulgakov, Soviet Townie, Writer

- I have the ability to post as much as I want to in this thread. I can also write long and complex PMs to the mod regarding the game.

@bvoigt, I am a Vanilla Townie, but my guy was some writer. It says Mikhail Bulgakov, Soviet Townie.

He appeared to claim that 'writer' was part of his actual rolename, but then went back on it. Couple this with the being dead during the cold war issue, this really, really looks like a fakeclaim to me.

Right. The part about PMing the mod also seems off.

Before anyone hammers, I want everyone to answer this: you do know what to do in a 2:1:1 endgame, right? Because it's possible we might face that tomorrow.

I don't. This happened in one of my previous games, but we probably didn't play it correctly. One other question (directed at everyone): I should kill if we lynch town, and hold off if we lynch Soviet scum. What's the best play if we lynch American scum?

[The Fonz]

Depends on who the scum is. If we lynch Soviet scum, just remember that you can't afford to miss. The question is if you have more faith in your vigging accuracy or the town's ability to lynch correctly at LyLo. If we lynch town, you have to shoot, and shoot American at that.

Broadly speaking, if we lynch Enigma or Sath and they flip American, then it goes to night 4-1-1. Assuming we lynch Enigma, I would definitely shoot, because from my perspective, 2/3 of Peregrine/Lowell/Sathoris are scum. That's pretty good odds, and the worst case scenario (you hit town, both scum hit town) leads to a 1:1:1 endgame. Which is no worse than the 2:1:1 version from holding fire. So there's no downside. If there's one crosskill, then you have a 2:1 endgame, and four-man endgame (the no-shot result) isn't really any better than three-man. IF both scum crosskill, obviously it doesn't matter what you do, town wins anyway.

2:1:1 situation,

first town player to get online self-votes.

Other town player should vote for whoever self-votes. Scum will not self-vote, since doing so will mean dying and losing. The reason is that you need scum to crosskill, therefore removing one of the two town targets is pro-town- town is no better off with two town alive and all the scum dead than with one. 1:1:1 endgame (if between lynch and NKs we get one dead American and three dead town) then the surviving town player should vote no-lynch.

I think, having gone back and forth all day, I'll return to a

vote: Enigma.

[Enigma]

I don't think Pere is scum .. and I think he likely was joking about the writer thing.......

Tbh just waiting on Pere to decide, I've said all I need to say .. if you have any more questions for me now just ask.

[The Fonz]

Peregrine, it's probably best you make up your mind fairly soon. Game seems to be stagnating.

[Sathoris]

I'm willing to vote for Enigma.

Good, cause I'd rather a have townie decide my fate than a soviet mafia.

[bvoigt]

I've decided I want to switch wagons. Enigma, what do you have to say before I hammer?

[Sotty7]

10th vote count of day 6

Enigma - 3 -

Lowell, Sathoris, The Fonz

Sathoris - 3 -

ThAdmiral, bvoigt, Enigma

Not voting - 1 -

PeregrineV

• The deadline for the end of day six is Friday 27th May @ 9pm CST
  
• With
  7
  alive it takes
  4
  to lynch.

[Lowell]

someone just do it already.

[Enigma]

First, why hasn't PV decided ...

I've decided I want to switch wagons. Enigma, what do you have to say before I hammer?

Err what would you like me to say?
Everything I've said has been truthful and sincere this game.

My scum reads,
Lowell, Thad, Sath still stand.

If you are lynching me based on nationality, well then it's quite unfortunate isn't it.
Scum have the luxury of being able to lie about their nationality, and town wouldn't be any wiser from it.

Also, you can try risk out guessing the mod and setup, but if you are basing your lynch candidates primarily on that you're doing it wrong.
You should be lynching who you find scummy, not because you are trying to outguess the mod.
My scum reads are (mostly) independent of nationality claims.

[The Fonz]

Enigma, the nationality claims actually help you. The major argument for lynching Sathoris over you was the freaking nationality claims.

If we exclude nationality considerations entirely, you're the player who was on a wagon with all dead or confirmed town, you're the guy who's strongly tied to dead scum Beasts of the Sea, and you're the guy who replaced a player who stayed in the game for four days and yet contributed basically nothing.

[Enigma]

Pro tip: Next time lynch the player who basically contributed nothing for four days sometime during day 1, 2, 3 or 4 instead of fucking around with it during endgame and making everything the replacee said for like several weeks a complete waste of his time because noone cares about his contribution.

Cheers.

[PeregrineV]

OK, here's my issue (yes, because I'm retarded town and don't want to lose, so spend a lot of time second guessing myself):

Enigma

- 3 -

Lowell

,

Sathoris,

The Fonz

Sathoris

- 3 - ThAdmiral, bvoigt,

Enigma

So, we have it evened up at 3 to 3. Both are claiming not to be mafia, but in order for that to be true, one of my town reads is just plain wrong.

In the end, bvoigt is my final town read, as his voting=vigging, and he finally claimed.

ThAd gets my town read from here: http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 1#p2798941
Basically, his claim wording is very close to mine. Can that be part of a fakeclaim? Could be.
But I will use ThAd's post as part of my vote case:

The flips make me even more certain of my suspicions regarding the bunny wagon. The wagon up to 7 now looks like this:

Bunnylover

- 13 -

LlamaFluff

,

Amrun

,

RedCoyote

, bvoigt, smargaret, Lowell,

Nachomamma8

If there isn't scum in that group I will eat my hat. Nay, I will eat everybody's hats.

vote: smargaret

Seeing as how there is only one more unknown on that list,

Vote:Lowell

My town read for The Fonz comes from posts that seem passionate, but now I'm second guessing all of that too.

Anyways, my point is that it's weird the votecount stalemated the way it did, and that causes me to second guess myself and my final reads.
Except for one.
So I'm voting to lynch Lowell, and hope that bvoigt hits another tonight.

[The Fonz]

Peregrine, coming in that late when two players are at L-1 and not even having the guts to pick between them is the worst kind of posturing.

[Lowell]

omg pere, really? Are you mad that I know you're enigma's partner?

[bvoigt]

UNVOTE: Sathoris
VOTE: Enigma

Since Peregrine won't.

[PeregrineV]

Peregrine, coming in that late when two players are at L-1 and not even having the guts to pick between them is the worst kind of posturing.

There is still three days left, and Lowell has been on my mind since this: http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 3#p3003203

[PeregrineV]

UNVOTE: Sathoris
VOTE: Enigma

Since Peregrine won't.

Thanks, since I know your's is legit.

@enigma- if town, please share last thoughts on final vote and discussion leading up to, including final scum.