Open 35: Big Love - Game over!


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Post Post #2700 (ISO) » Wed Feb 06, 2008 11:30 am

Post by Erg0 »

I'm getting a bad feeling from Skruffs right now. The Monday-morning quarterbacking on yesterday's lynch isn't helping. Skruffs, the idea was that by lynching away from Fonz we had a chance to lynch scum and put ourselves in a much better position, whereas a mislynch didn't significantly worsen our position (numerically, at least).

I'm having trouble resolving some of these relationships in my mind. Elmo seems scummy to me as well, but he is attacking Skruffs. Ether switching to Nab under pressure from Skruffs (who she was previously voting)doesn't look so great either.


Mod edit
Votecount:
Ether (2): Skruffs, Bookitty
Ryan (1): Erg0
Erg0 (1): Ryan
NabakovNabakov (2): Elmo, Ether

Not voting (4): Korlash, The Fonz, Bookitty, NabakovNabakov.

With 9 alive it's 5 to lynch. At deadline, the one with the most votes is lynched. In case of a tie I will look at who reached the highest amount of votes first.
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Post Post #2701 (ISO) » Wed Feb 06, 2008 11:34 am

Post by Elmo »

Anything I can respond to, Erg0?
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Post Post #2702 (ISO) » Wed Feb 06, 2008 11:47 am

Post by Erg0 »

Hmm... not at present, I re-read your posts on the last couple of pages and it's nothing I can put my finger on (though I didn't love you calling me out as a likely survivor to endgame). It probably comes from latent suspicion of Sarcastro as much as anything. I won't vote you today, so we'll deal with it tomorrow if necessary.

The more I read, the more I feel like the NabNab wagon is very dodgy indeed. I'd like Skruffs to comment on Ether's change of vote.
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Post Post #2703 (ISO) » Wed Feb 06, 2008 11:54 am

Post by Bookitty »

I was resigned to being lynched. I did not see any means of proving my town-status short of that (I could not have predicted Fonz's slip-up, nor his later outing of himself entirely as scum), and I thought it better to lynch us both now (regardless of who you believed) and go forward with the better information to be gained from definitely knowing the alignment of two people.

I did not anticipate Fonz quickhammering town, but I should have. That behaviour cost him nothing in terms of outing scum, and if we'd lynched him (and me) at that point, as Skruffs argued should be done, then scum could not have quickhammered town and cut off discussion without any repercussions to the scumteam.

That said, we have three scum left in the game. And we have ironically enough too much information to make clearcut decisions. In the course of this game every single person has committed some scumtell or other, made some connection to another player.

My original suspicions were of Zindaras (Korlash) and Sarcastro/LoudmouthLee (Elmo). I don't know why I had those suspicions now, but I guess I'd be willing to trust my gut reaction on entering the game lo these many years ago, and vote either of them. I don't want to vote Elmo, because he's actually contributing in a way that I don't think scum would do, but I have no level of trust in my read on him. Recent events look like distancing (a scum vote on another scum is a perfectly safe gambit for distancing at this point) but again, I don't have any faith that this would be true.

Ether: Right now Elmo is defending you, which does make me nervous. I'm pretty sure that Skruffs is town. I could be wrong on that, but I'm not going to vote him when I think he's town.

And I don't understand the lack of suspicion on ryan, Ether, when you've said things like this:
Ether wrote:(From your perspective, the people of indeterminate alignment on the Ryanwagon were {Fonz, Jalyn, Jordan}. Ryan scumbuddies? o.0)
I reread you in isolation. You have pushed lynches nearly exclusively on people now known to be town. You've been insistent that you knew they were scum. That's consistent with your general town play, I think, except... you've been very consistently WRONG. And you've said things like:
Ether wrote:My attention span sucks.
Ether wrote:I should reread the thread at some point. I probably won't, knowing myself, but that statement was necessary to maintain good form.
But most telling is that you thought ryan was town, thought he was scum enough to want to lynch when it was between him and Numenorean, and moved to Numenorean to lynch him, all the while telling ryan you thought he was scum, and then went back to ryan is town, now.

Is ryan town?

Why is ryan town?
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Post Post #2704 (ISO) » Wed Feb 06, 2008 12:24 pm

Post by Elmo »

Erg0: Okay, that sounds alright to me.
Bookitty wrote:I don't want to vote Elmo, because he's actually contributing in a way that I don't think scum would do, but I have no level of trust in my read on him.
<3 to you too

Bookitty, I supposed I'm biased because I'm replacing Sarcastro.. I'll reread Ether, again... is there anything beyond confidently lynching townies, there? Where are the bits with ryan?
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Post Post #2705 (ISO) » Wed Feb 06, 2008 12:42 pm

Post by Ether »

Elmo: daaaaaaaaaaamn.
Post 2700, Erg0 wrote:Ether switching to Nab under pressure from Skruffs (who she was previously voting)doesn't look so great either.
I didn't vote Nabakov for Skruffs's sake; I voted him for Bookitty's. My priority is kind of to not die.

Bookitty: my plan gave the town two lynches. Skruffs's gave the town one lynch. My plan was better. There you go.

I cannot imagine
why
you believe Skruffs to be town. My accuracy in this game is indeed bad,
though that's consistent with my general town play, too.
Those headers are also in-character, though I'd appreciate it if you'd just take my word for it. You certainly shouldn't feel obligated to read the games in question.

As for Ryan: peer pressure eventually weakened my view of Ryantown enough for his connection to Numenorean to change my mind on him. It helped that
I didn't know Fonz was scum yet.


Yes, Ryan is town.
Ryan is town because, post 2572, Ether wrote:Fonz's stuff (right from his opening post), and Ryan's failure to move his vote to Flea, and the mod WIFOM. (If he is scum and we lose for failing to lynch him Day 1, I will be...displeased.) Those are Ryan's redeeming features. I hate reading his posts, though.
As I move my vote
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It fills my head up and gets louder and
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Post Post #2706 (ISO) » Wed Feb 06, 2008 12:51 pm

Post by Erg0 »

So the timing of your vote switch (right after Skruffs pointed out your earlier suspicion of NabNab) was a coincidence?

I'd like to see a vote from Korlash real soon now. I know he's been on the site today, so I find his lack of vote... disturbing.
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Post Post #2707 (ISO) » Wed Feb 06, 2008 12:54 pm

Post by Ether »

Yes.
As I move my vote
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It fills my head up and gets louder and
LOUDER
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Post Post #2708 (ISO) » Wed Feb 06, 2008 12:58 pm

Post by Bookitty »

Actually, I'm doing something else, Elmo:

VOTECOUNT ONE, edited to include only living players:

Adel (1): ryan
Darko (1): Skruffs
ryan (5): The Fonz, Korlash
somestrangeflea (5): NabakovNabakov, Ether, Erg0, Elmo

VOTECOUNT TWO:

JordanA24 (7): Ether, NabakovNabakov, Elmo, Erg0
Erg0 (4): Korlash
Skruffs (2): ryan
Ryan (1): The Fonz

VOTECOUNT THREE:

ryan (3): The Fonz, Elmo, Skruffs
Numenorean7 (5): ryan, Erg0, Ether, NabakovNabakov

VOTECOUNT FOUR:

Sikario8 (6): Ether, Bookitty, ryan, NabakovNabakov, The Fonz

Not voting (5): Korlash, Skruffs, Erg0, Elmo


What can we derive from this?
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Post Post #2709 (ISO) » Wed Feb 06, 2008 1:05 pm

Post by Erg0 »

Interesting. The obvious point is that Ether and NabNab are on all of the townie lynches.
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Post Post #2710 (ISO) » Wed Feb 06, 2008 1:07 pm

Post by Erg0 »

Also, The Fonz ended the day voting ryan on days 1, 2 and 3. I'm not sure what to make of this yet.
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Post Post #2711 (ISO) » Wed Feb 06, 2008 1:31 pm

Post by Bookitty »

The Fonz stayed as far away from the townie lynches as he could until that last one. Why would scum do that? Might it be to ensure that not all the scum were on all the lynches?

And I am going to make a guess that all the active scum WERE on the Sikario lynch, because otherwise why would the Fonz come in and quickhammer and remove all doubt on his alignment? If there was another scum who could still vote, what was the hurry?
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Post Post #2712 (ISO) » Wed Feb 06, 2008 1:41 pm

Post by Erg0 »

Fonz was pretty much confirmed to be scum by then anyway, so I'd say it hurt him far less to hammer than it would have hurt one of the other scum. It does seem highly unlikely that all of the scum were off those lynches, though.
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Post Post #2713 (ISO) » Wed Feb 06, 2008 3:16 pm

Post by Elmo »

I'm going to be slightly lazy and not do the rest on Skruffs, because, yea. He's probably not going to respond for a while, it seems, and there's enough there that he probably won't be able to answer fully until deadline, and I'll have plenty of time to do it after. But that's at least some justification out there for why I'm back to SkruffsScum, I think.

Like I've been saying for, like, ever, people saying Ryan is scum need to talk about Fonz's behaviour towards him. Erg0, would you be interested if I commented on your case on him? I suppose that might be interesting.

Interesting idea, Bookitty. I never place a great deal of faith in this kind of vote analysis; perhaps that's just a personal hangup, though.
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Post Post #2714 (ISO) » Wed Feb 06, 2008 3:25 pm

Post by Erg0 »

Sure, I'd welcome any comment on my case. I have been feeling a little ignored up til now.

(sniff)
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Post Post #2715 (ISO) » Wed Feb 06, 2008 4:11 pm

Post by NabakovNabakov »

Profuse apologies, I've been busy, daunted, and am currently very tired.

Did anybody else notice Elmo taking down the exact time of deadline? Is The Fonz going to come flying in at the last minute to make the decisive vote (whether or not that violates the rules)?

I am almost positive that Elmo is scum and would vote him if I didn't fear the spectre of Winkler. As it is, the blatant Ether-Elmo connections which have only grown as Ether went under pressure give me enough confidence to place the wagon outside of intervention.

Vote:Ether
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Post Post #2716 (ISO) » Wed Feb 06, 2008 4:34 pm

Post by Elmo »

nabokov you need to bus skruffs now please
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Post Post #2717 (ISO) » Wed Feb 06, 2008 5:38 pm

Post by Ether »

I guess we won't be lynching Skruffs
And NabNab feels the same
This isn't even "her or me"
He means to end the game.

It's solely Elmo's actions that have
Led his vote to stray:
He's
said
my plan's the reason why
We're still around today

But something's clearly gone amiss
My noose is growing tight
Bookitty, if you're reading this,
You have to see the light!

I
gave
you my defenses, which
You don't appear to see
No chance we could review them in
Day Six's luxury?
As I move my vote
Towards your wagon, town is taking note
It fills my head up and gets louder and
LOUDER
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Post Post #2718 (ISO) » Wed Feb 06, 2008 5:45 pm

Post by Erg0 »

I believe this is the current votecount:

Ether (3): Skruffs, Bookitty, NabakovNabakov
NabakovNabakov (2): Elmo, Ether
Ryan (1): Erg0
Erg0 (1): Ryan

Not voting (2): Korlash, The Fonz

Ether was already in line to be lynched when NabNab made his vote, so he's only put her further ahead. I believe that an unvote won't be enough to save her now - he'll actually have to be pushed to more votes than her.
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Post Post #2719 (ISO) » Wed Feb 06, 2008 5:49 pm

Post by Ether »

Which is why I appealed to Bookitty specifically.

Thoughts?

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Post Post #2720 (ISO) » Wed Feb 06, 2008 5:52 pm

Post by Elmo »

Aw, crap.
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Post Post #2721 (ISO) » Wed Feb 06, 2008 6:04 pm

Post by Erg0 »

Well, that's a thought I suppose.

I may change my vote later, depending on how certain I'm feeling about things. I'm really interested in the voting patterns right now, but I'm aware that the more potential lynch candidates we have, the greater the chance of the scum being able to just run someone up to the point that the town can't fix it.

Actually, I just want to try something.

Unvote, Vote: Korlash


I feel like he's hanging back and waiting for the opportunity to drive home a mislynch.
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Post Post #2722 (ISO) » Wed Feb 06, 2008 6:06 pm

Post by Ether »

...

I'm going to bed.
As I move my vote
Towards your wagon, town is taking note
It fills my head up and gets louder and
LOUDER
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Post Post #2723 (ISO) » Wed Feb 06, 2008 6:09 pm

Post by Elmo »

NabakovNabakov wrote:I am almost positive that Elmo is scum and would vote him if I didn't fear the spectre of Winkler. As it is, the blatant Ether-Elmo connections which have only grown as Ether went under pressure give me enough confidence to place the wagon outside of intervention. Vote:Ether
Skruffs, to Ether wrote:However, and I pointed this otu already, and elmo just reiterated it in his last post, IF one person being scum incriminates the second, you lynch the FIRST person first, NOT the second, which was your intentions. Even if you *were* town, and *honestly* believed that Nab and Sikario were scum, the way you are going about trying to determine it is Wrong and scummy.
afgj;58gy54a54uja;zoithjitluhjat;ijahte;haite

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Post Post #2724 (ISO) » Wed Feb 06, 2008 6:11 pm

Post by Elmo »

Um. I have no idea how that came out. Skruffs, if you do anything other than jump on NabNab for that, it'll be amazingly obvious you're scum, so please do. Otherwise Bookitty will see it and unvote and we'll all be happy.

How do I made post again?
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