Micro 737: Chosen Mafia (Day 4)

[Umlaut]

Official Vote Count 2.04

Dunnstral

(2): BTD6_maker, Gorny

Keychain

(1): tman2nd

Mulch

(1): Keychain

Gorny

(1): Dunnstral

Not Voting

(1): Bulbazoor, Mulch

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch.

Deadline:

(expired on 2017-09-05 08:40:00)

Bulbazoor has been prodded.

[Mulch]

VOTE: BTDMaker

[Keychain]

...Okay then?

I can definitely still see a BTD6 lynch after those posts since daystart, plus the evidence of PM not switching his vote to save himself. I don't know how likely it is that both wagons Day 1 were on scum but I suppose it's possible. Need to think more about it.

Bulba is a distant third choice, pending his response to the prod (thank you Umlaut! ).

@Dunnstral:

Also why did you vote tman in 243?

I'd still like for a response to this, please.

[Bulbazoor]

Hello. I townread lil uzi and keychain

[Bulbazoor]

tman2nd
Gorny
BTD6_maker
Mulch
Wait untl I get more townreads

[Bulbazoor]

That was my scumpool btw

[Umlaut]

Gorny has been prodded.

(And I resolve to be more punctual with prods for the rest of the game.)

[Gorny]

tman2nd
Gorny
BTD6_maker
Mulch
Wait untl I get more townreads

That was my scumpool btw

Can you elaborate a bit more on those?

[Mulch]

5lol

[BTD6_maker]

. They refuse to do anything useful or even post text.

Do you find this scum indicative?

It is slightly scum-indicative. If someone were to post very little (for instance, Bulbazoor) I would class it as more NAI because they may have little time to post. However, Dunnstral is clearly taking the time to post but categorically refusing to post text. This is why it is slightly more likely to be done by scum, as Dunnstral may want to do this in order to avoid being lynched by trying to stop people from being able to give any reasons for their lynch other than "Dunnstral keeps on posting images and no text". It is still possible for Town to do this, but they are playing anti-Town, which is why we need to pressure them.

Dunnstral, if you are Town please post text in your next post. This is no longer funny any more and is just hurting Town.

At the moment pressuring Dunnstral is probably the best idea. They refuse to do anything useful or even post text.

Can you explain why this doesn't also apply to the elusive Bulba?

Speaking of which

@Mod: Is Bulbazoor on V/LA? Or can he be prodded?

To be honest, at that point I had essentially forgotten about Bulbazoor. Dunnstral posted often so I noticed them.

That said, my point can still apply. Was Bulbazoor posting little because they were busy? It is certainly possible, and if true it is NAI. I expect content from them now that they are hopefully less busy, though.

Bulbazoor is slightly more likely to be Chosen, as I have explained. If they are Chosen, the second scum would very likely be on their RVS wagon (if they were off the wagon, they could have hammered). This leaves Dunnstral, SAJ, and tman2nd as likely scum. (This is weak at the moment, as we do not know whether Bulbazoor really is chosen).

[Keychain]

VOTE: BTD6_maker

I have a reason to back up this vote, but I'd rather wait for Dunnstral's response to 284 before I give it.

[Umlaut]

Dunnstral and tman2nd have been prodded.

[Mulch]

I think the lack of self preservation on the wagon at the end indicates they could be scum parnters.

[tman2nd]

Sorry for procrastinating on this game. I'll get back into it in the morning.

[tman2nd]

@BTD what do you think of Mulch?

[tman2nd]

At the moment pressuring Dunnstral is probably the best idea. They refuse to do anything useful or even post text.

I don't have much time now; however, I will analyse the Gorny/Keychain interactions when I get the chance.

Have you done this?

[Dunnstral]

Alright listen up - the most likely person to be mafia here is Gorny and we should lynch them today. I don't know if you guys just don't see it but the way his opinion on me goes from me probably not being scum to thinking I'm scum for posting images is pretty disingenuous.

Next in line is btd6 - he was nowhere to be seen when the lynch actually went through though he voted for pmysterious in rvs so then unvoting wasn't possible. Also, pmysterious didn't vote him to save himself and just let himself die.

Kind of suspect tman, I don't really suspect the rest

At the start of the game I thought something along the lines of "maybe scum is this one guy because he replaced out and scum hadn't acted yet" - and then a few days passed and btd6 posted something and I thought it was about the same guy (bulbazoor) but it was actually for someone else (pmysterious) and then my suspicions on bulbazoor were resolved (he was the same person he replaced so my theory was off)

[Gorny]

Wow he talks.
Gering the pressure of two votes on you Dunn? Only two more on you and the town wind ź that is if you're scum like I think you are.

[tman2nd]

the way his opinion on me goes from me probably not being scum to thinking I'm scum for posting images is pretty disingenuous.

When did he ever say that you were probably not scum?

[Keychain]

Dunn! Actual words!

So my reasoning for the vote on BTD6:
We have a dayphase and a half of content, including flipped scum, but BTD6 is focusing on a pressure vote on lowhanging fruit instead of using that content to figure out and vote for someone they think is most likely scum.

Bulbazoor is slightly more likely to be Chosen, as I have explained. If they are Chosen, the second scum would very likely be on their RVS wagon (if they were off the wagon, they could have hammered). This leaves Dunnstral, SAJ, and tman2nd as likely scum. (This is weak at the moment, as we do not know whether Bulbazoor really is chosen).

There's also this analysis. They have

almost

made a move towards finding scum, except that it depends on something unknowable. They are leaning on the setup so hard in nearly every single one of their posts instead of looking at what players are doing.


@Dunn: Yes I see it but I disagree on the Gorny lynch. I think he would have switched his vote to BTD6 at end of day if he was partnered with PM. That said

Wow he talks.
Gering the pressure of two votes on you Dunn? Only two more on you and the town wind ź that is if you're scum like I think you are.

this is a bonkers response if his only reason for scumreading you is because he thinks you're avoiding having to respond by only posting images.
I still think BTD6 is more likely scum. Gorny's stance is explicable from confused town, BTD6's is less so.

You also never answered why you suspect tman and I'm still interested.

Alright listen up - the most likely person to be mafia here is Gorny and we should lynch them today. I don't know if you guys just don't see it but the way his opinion on me goes from me probably not being scum to thinking I'm scum for posting images is pretty disingenuous.

When did he ever say that you were probably not scum?

Yeah... don't make it

too

obvious that you didn't read 265, it might hurt my feelings.

[tman2nd]

When did he ever say that you were probably not scum?

Yeah... don't make it

too

obvious that you didn't read 265, it might hurt my feelings.

He may have said that he was less suspicious, but he never said he wasn't suspicious at all.

[tman2nd]

UNVOTE:

[tman2nd]

I originally was thinking BTD was town because they kept their vote on PM, but since they was V/LA in the later part of the day and wasn't available to unvote, that doesn't really clear them like I was originally thinking. I want to hear a bit more from them before I decide on this wagon. But, even if they haven't said anything, I'll come to some decision tomorrow.

Dunn could be mafia, but I'm not finding much reason to think he's mafia beyond being on the counter wagon to PM, and that's not enough. There are multiple people on the wagon including me after all. I don't town read him either though.

[Umlaut]

Bulbazoor was prodded

[Mulch]

hi