Newbie 2115 Mafia PT

[AurorusVox]

Nice nice

[AurorusVox]

I think kawaii has good chance to go for patch

[usesPython]

Yeah def a better chance than bella does

[AurorusVox]

Also the qu of why did you keep patch alive if he was gonna vote for you anyway, should go in your favour too

[Nexus]

YOU'RE OUTTA HERE AV

[usesPython]

Mafia action sent, at this point I'm just gonna use this thread as an impromptu notes PT

[usesPython]

Right now basic idea of the Bella/patch/Python ELO is to analyze what the point of the d3 AV/patch interactions were. Key points to go over are "AV tried to buddy patch because Bella was his partner and would deny being FN'd" and "AV buddying patch was WIFOM theater to make patch look townie by association".

Things to bring up in support of "AV buddying patch was WIFOM theater to make patch look townie by association":

-Patch hammering before Bella could come back from V/LA and confirm/deny they were FN'd. Bella confirming they were FN'd makes the whole plan fall apart since otherwise there's no reason for AV to be buddying patch
-The underlying motivation for doing it instead of just shutting up. If it's an AV/Bella or AV/Python game all AV has to do to win is shut up and let patch get voted in 3p ELO. If that's the case, why didn't he do that?

Things to bring up in support of "AV tried to buddy patch because Bella was his partner and would deny being FN'd":

-He really looked like he was actually trying to get a miselim through. If that's the case, why target his scum partner?

[usesPython]

First draft

Drafted this during the night phase but haven't had time to do an editing pass so you're getting the raw reads, if you see bad logic be sure to point it out:

What was the point of the patch/AV interactions d3? Way I see it, since AV is confscum at that point every single post has to be weighed against the EV of just shutting up. Thus to answer that question we have to consider which scumteam can win with AV just shutting up and which scumteam can't.

AV/Bella:
You kidding? Neither patch or myself are likely to vote this, more realistically patch and I crossvote each other and scum!Bella hammers

AV/Python:
Bella already scumread patch pretty hard, what would be the point when realistically I could swing a patch elim?

AV/patch:
Absolute uphill battle of an ELO, I vote patch every time so it'd be a fight to try and get Bella to miselim

Next the consideration of which scumteam benefits from the interactions:

AV/Bella:
Theoretically could be used to paranoia brain me into voting Bella but what's the point? I'd already vote patch anyways

AV/patch:
Getting read as being pocketed by AV gives them a fighting chance to push a miselim on me

AV/Python:
Literally -EV, what would be the point of making the only limmable person look town?

This does raise one issue though: in an AV/Bella game AV could theoretically swing a Kawaii or Python miselim from patch if Bella denies being visited.

Part 2: The hammer

Why did patch hammer before Bella could come back from V/LA to confirm or deny the existance of the FN?

Strictly speaking, it's always +EV for town!Patch to wait for Bella to come back and either confirm or deny the FN since in the case of confirming the FN limming AV is always safe and in the case of denying the FN you collapse the game into a single 50/50 where the only person that could screw up would be patch. This raises the question: why didn't patch wait?

Part 3: The meta

Since patch recently finished a scum game I can now meta them.

i feel like im more careful as town and less careful as scum

I wanna ask, does lolhammering twice in one game sound like they're being careful or not?

[usesPython]

Updated version

Drafted this during the night phase but haven't had time to do an editing pass so you're getting the raw reads, if you see bad logic be sure to point it out:

What was the point of the patch/AV interactions d3? Way I see it, since AV is confscum at that point every single post has to be weighed against the EV of just shutting up. Thus to answer that question we have to consider which scumteam can win with AV just shutting up and which scumteam can't.

AV/Bella:
You kidding? Neither patch or myself are likely to vote this, more realistically patch and I crossvote each other and scum!Bella hammers

AV/Python:
Bella already scumread patch pretty hard, scum!Python could probably swing a patch elim?

AV/patch:
Absolute uphill battle of an ELO, I vote patch every time so it'd be a fight to try and get Bella to miselim me

Next the consideration of which scumteam benefits from the interactions:

AV/Bella:
Theoretically could be used to paranoia brain me into voting patch but what's the point? I'd already vote patch anyways

AV/patch:
Getting read as being pocketed by AV gives them a fighting chance to push a miselim on me

AV/Python:
Literally -EV, what would be the point of making the only limmable person look town?

This does raise one issue though: in an AV/Bella game AV could theoretically swing a Kawaii or Python miselim from patch if Bella denies being visited.

Part 2: The hammer

Why did patch hammer before Bella could come back from V/LA to confirm or deny the existance of the FN?

Strictly speaking, it's always +EV for town!Patch to wait for Bella to come back and either confirm or deny the FN since in the case of confirming the FN limming AV is always safe and in the case of denying the FN you collapse the game into a single 50/50 where the only person that could screw up would be patch. This raises the question: why didn't patch wait?

Part 3: The meta

Since patch recently finished a scum game I can now meta them.

i feel like im more careful as town and less careful as scum

I wanna ask, does lolhammering twice in one game sound like they're being careful or not?



Patch unless you can explain all these points and make a Bella scumcase I'm just gonna vote you, I don't see it being Bella here

[usesPython]

python only knows I visited her n1
I failed to submit night actions n2, I visited bella n3

AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA

[usesPython]

Really hoping kawaii doesn't replace out, would be pretty bad for us

[usesPython]

fuck, i can't even push you. kawaii's just going to believe you because everything you've done this game has been carefully laid-out. we lose.

patch you failing to scum case python indicates python is not scum, tell me why python is scum, I will be hammering you if you don't
Everything python has done in this game is town in my eyes, python's solving, the solve is python is town until scum casing

POG

[patchwork]

But patch when you read this I still <3 you

VOX.

[AurorusVox]

But patch when you read this I still <3 you

VOX.

<3