A Dance with Dragons Mafia: A New Dawn!

[Faraday]

Nah, seems generally true. Depends on general competency of the player as scum but I think it's a decent tell in weaker players.

[Tammy]

I don't follow. Are you agreeing that people without scum reads tend to be town or it's a scum tell?

[Shadoweh]

Maybe they decided you were too pretty to live?

Nevermind this is officially our new reason DIE NOT AN OLD MAN

He's saying scum know they have to look suspicious so people who don't have scum reads are more likely town.

[Tammy]

Oh yeah forgot abut that...jealous haters.

[hasdgfas]

Oh hey, I was in this game at one point. Sorry to my team that I left, but we still ended up winning anyway. I just do not have time to put into games anymore.

[Zar]

Probably Irrelevant, but was shocked that none of the Westerosi players chased for breadcrumbs from Pless.

We had one.

Spoiler: Breadcrumb!

Bvoigt is scum. Investigation returned

no active role

.

W

eird. Didn't bvoigt claim vig after you'd already claimed your role? Seems a pretty reckless move on his part if so. Obviously happy to vote for him though (won't yet -- still rereading and trying to analyse the Stefan and DCLXVI wagons from yesterday).

What did I freaking say

Couldn't hear you over your repeated claims that DCLXVI was town, sorry .

Hoooold on

let's not quicklynch

. I like this lynch, but

we have the jail vote to deal with as well so we want everyone to check in and state they have sent a vote

--and there's no need to quicklynch anyway.

Even though Tyene is probably scum

I agree with this. Going to go back and read over day 1 again.

~ Pless

E

BWOP: Yeah, bvoigt claimed Vig in 1461. But Shadow had already claimed Torturer in 1321. So a pretty reckless move, I'd have thought. Guess he felt had to claim something though - the wagon on him was pretty big at that point.

~ Pless

I find it curious that, for all practical effects, we only had a kill. DCLXVI's 'faction', whatever that means, knew who he was going to kill, obviously. So: are they responsible for the death of the other mason, or do we have another killing group, or did they doublekill, or do we have successful protections--we're not going to get an answer now, but this is food for thought for later.

R

ight -- this is certainly worth coming back to after we've had some more flips. Definitely feels like something odd happened last night. Doublekill seems unlikely (why would a scum faction try to kill one Mason if they couldn't also kill the other?). Some sort of role intervening to prevent the 'missing' kill seems most likely.

I'm fine with BVO lynch, however if Bvo flips town we look at staeg and shadows because of weird stuff i got in my pm last night.

So, you have information that potentially clears Bvoigt and implicates Staeg and Shadow somehow and you're just fine lynching Bvoigt in case? If that's not what you mean, what do you mean?

No I think I actually have info that potentially pegs someone as scum along with BVO. It could implicate bvo as town though but

it's also something I don't fele at liberty to discuss because it could just be more beneficial to scum than town

.

Why did you

bring it up at all

if you don't "feel at liberty" to discuss it?

This is still bothering me. Why the masons? They were not being particularly useful, leading visibly, etc. They were not typical N1 kills, even for a team that could afford to off the two of them at once, if that is the case.

I would guess any/all of the following:

1) bvoigt's scumteam was afraid to kill shadow for fear of protective roles, so they decided to off the masons while they had the chance

2) bvoigt's scumteam tried to kill shadow and failed, and a different scumteam killed the masons because they didn't care if shadow targeted bvoigt.

Either of those easily explain the mason deaths, although there's probably more to it that we don't know. I wouldn't say their deaths were *completely* unexpected, though. It does lead me to believe that the scumteam who actually killed the masons are not particularly aggressive players, for whatever that's worth, because they took the safe choice over trying to find a stronger PR.

Agree with this analysis, though (1) and (2) aren't the only options (if bvoigt is the SK, for instance, it's no mystery that Shadow wasn't killed -- nobody who wanted Shadow dead had the chance to kill him, since bvoigt was being role-blocked). Especially agree that the masons dying wasn't a total shock - the end of day 1 is full of people saying "well, the mason claims will be sorted out in the night". Seems a bit daft to then say "wow, I had no idea the masons would die tonight!". It's not a very adventurous choice, but it's hardly a complete surprise either.

(I thought the Mason claim was fake though ).

~ Pless

(if bvoigt is the SK, for instance, it's no mystery that Shadow wasn't killed -- nobody who wanted Shadow dead had the chance to kill him, since bvoigt was being role-blocked

This can't be the case due to shadow's result.

B

ut ... in the game Minimum talked about earlier (where Mina was the mod and used the Torturer role), the role PM explicitly said it wouldn't detect factional abilities. Isn't the SK's kill a factional ability?

~ Pless

Lyanna, I'll admit the fact the hydra-partner of Shinoris isn't 'new' does weaken the town-tell but while he may be nervous and weak as scum I don't think his solution to counter that would be bringing into it another player he has to have hydra-interactions with since they'd have to fake read disagreements ect.

Regfan could be scum because of this. He's maintaining a town-read for an absolutely ridiculous reason.

On a related note: the hydra dissonance has to end, and if it doesn't we start lynching them. We have to eventually be able to hold these slots accountable for their reads.

E

very Hydra should start working on consolidating their reads

just like us

. We'll be posting our thoughts on the Stefan wagon shortly.

Zdenek have you seen Regfan as scum before? To us, the way he voted StefanB looks quite natural coming from him as hypoTown. Plus, Regfan calling people town for reasons

God only knows he has

doesn't ping my ScumDar (this is Zar speaking).

~ Zar.

Thanks. I didn't bother to check, that was from memory.


This is still bothering me. Why the masons? They were not being particularly useful, leading visibly, etc. They were not typical N1 kills, even for a team that could afford to off the two of them at once, if that is the case.

This is another indication that there is scum among my giant pile of townreads, and it's likely to be among the strong players. I'm sorry, but you don't let the lot of players who are reading TOWN TOWN TOWN live just to kill two meek, sheepish masons whose PR worth is essentially null at that stage.

Mark my words--there is scum among the strong players in this game, and they are hiding in the numbers of townreads (probably to foster paranoia, to which I say whelp, too late, suffering from it since Yesterday).

I want to lynch clear scum today, which means bvoigt, but I am incredibly wary of the people I've been clearing left and right. I need to see what reads stand up once multiball is factored in and possibly work with that. Work for tomorrow.

D

on't really dig this post. Tierce this looks like you're hunting for

something

you were expecting to happen. Also, why are you procrastinating on reading people until

after

lynching bvoigt? Why wouldn't discussing interactions be productive after DCL's flip?

~Zar.

In

A Clash of Kings

, he made Sandor Clegane and Petyr Baelish townies (where town were the Starks), and Tyrion Lannister Mafia. (He also made Melisandre a fakeclaim.) But more likely,

he fucking gives scum fakeclaims.

EVERY SINGLE GAME, WITHOUT EXCEPTION.

So Stefan's softclaim is null at absolute best.

S

omething I've been meaning to ask Minimum (and some of the other players from previous Eddard Stark games can pitch in too). Mina, you said that there was no way shadow could have faked the torture claim because you came up with the role, etc. Since you've played Eddard Stark games before, can you explain how Faraday handles the fakeclaims? Does he give them pre-made? Does he hand them upon request? Are the roles you can fake-claim pre-given to you?

~ Zar.

If you have doubt on Stefan's alignment, then go ahead and lynch him for the "flip". But every instinct in me is screaming that he's town...and furthermore,

no one is arguing otherwise

. Lynching him today when everyone thinks he's town is pointless.

Been meaning to work on a longer analysis of the Stefan wagon (and the DCLXVI wagon, too) but that will take some time. However, I've already read enough to know (as I thought at the time I first read this) that the bolded is simply not true. Plenty of people voting for Stefan claimed to think that he was scum. (The idea that he was suddenly a shining beacon of towniness and was never going to be mislynched if left alive, well ... no? Does anybody really think this?)

B

y my count so far, only three (maybe four?) people voted for Stefan despite thinking he was probably town: greenknight, Jal and us (maybe Tyene? she and Lyanna both basically claimed no read).

On the other hand, six people -- Regfan, Saporerint, Kortul, bvoigt, Mockingjaye and Pandora -- claimed actual scum-reads. And a lot of the reasons people had for claiming these scum-reads were pretty bad (I'm thinking of bvoigt's and Mockingjaye's in particular). That's not something we can analyse?

A further four people --

DCLXVI

(the confirmed scum!), Staeg, MagnaofIllusion and BBmolla -- voted for Stefan without giving

any

reason for doing so that I've been able to see.

That's

not something to analyse?

I think both the Stefan wagon and the DCLXVI wagon give us plenty of material to look at, and I think we'd have far less to talk about today if we'd not lynched Stefan (nevermind the fact that we'd be spending large parts of the day arguing about the failure to lynch somebody several people claimed to have a strong scum-read on). Really don't get why you were so dead against lynching Stefan, anyway -- what exactly had he done to make you so convinced he was town? And so convinced that

everybody else

would think he was town today?

~ Pless

[Tammy]

I did look for them! But I suck

[Thor665]

Thor's flip shook my confidence.

Called it!

[Mina]

Well, it was part that, part process of elimination making me reevaluate

all

my town reads, and part CES switching our vote because he thought we'd never get a lynch unless the scum cooperated with us, so he wanted it to go quickly. (Kind of disappointed I never got to finish my pairings analysis, although I doubt it would have influenced the game. STILL bitter that AV killed kortul, because gah, I posted two reasons that he WASN'T Stannis. )

On a side note, Thor...I'm definitely not absolving myself of blame for tunneling on you. But for next time, when someone attacks you, it's probably a good idea not to go, "There's no case on me. Show me what the case is" over and over in response. I know that might have been your gut impression to replacing in and seeing an unexplained vote from CES, and

everyone

thinks the case on them sucks (see: me at the beginning of this game). But doing so just turned me (and some other people) against you, because it made you look completely concerned with self-preservation and making the people attacking you look bad. People

did

have reasons to suspect you, particularly since you were a replacement, and some of them were posted in the thread. The current meta on this site is "You don't get into a battle of text walls with scum to explain to them

why

they're scum--particularly scum who are adept at stringing arguments together."

I don't mean this as an attack, just as advice for the next time you get in a situation like this (since I know you were lamenting how much suspicion you seem to draw lately).

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Also part Faraday screwing up the Feysal flip. That was not what his role was.

P.S. Scum did actually try to nightkill us N1, Mina. Minimum just can't be killed apparently?

[Plessiez]

Congratulations, Stannis. Definitely deserved winners. Town

will

win an Eddard Stark-modded game one day though. Maybe .

Did you kill us on night 2, Stannis people, or was that Aegon? Thanks to whoever did, I guess (fun fact: despite having multiple living scum in our "strong scum" tier when we died, I somehow managed to pick 0 out of 4 scum when Faraday asked for final guesses before spoiling me ). Zar's reads were pretty good though, and it was fun to hydra with him.

MVP is probably Pandora?

Oh, yeah, definitely. Don't think there was anybody more universally seen as town on day 1 and 2, really (maybe Regfan?). Though it was obvious Pandora was scum to those of us in the dead QT because

the mod told us

we're just that smart.

Also part Faraday screwing up the Feysal flip. That was not what his role was.

What was his role, then? I mean, it's a bit clunkily written, I guess, but it's not unambiguously wrong, is it?

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

His role was Informed Traitor to the Stannis Faction and Specific Neighborizer. Specific Neighborizer and Informed Traitor to the Stannis Faction is more ambiguous but is also fine. I don't really see how you can read that "to" as not applying to the Specific Neighborizer. "Not unambiguously wrong" is not the standard I'd be applying here anyway.

[Shadoweh]

Did you kill us on night 2, Stannis people, or was that Aegon? Thanks to whoever did, I guess (fun fact: despite having multiple living scum in our "strong scum" tier when we died, I somehow managed to pick 0 out of 4 scum when Faraday asked for final guesses before spoiling me ). Zar's reads were pretty good though, and it was fun to hydra with him.

That was us. Looking back it was Quilly's idea because you were asking him questions, and we answer questions with lead. B|

MVP is probably Pandora?

Oh, yeah, definitely. Don't think there was anybody more universally seen as town on day 1 and 2, really (maybe Regfan?). Though it was obvious Pandora was scum to those of us in the dead QT because

the mod told us

we're just that smart.

You guys are such jerks I think i was legitimately sick at the time (sick of posting ah ah ah) Regfan was a brighter townread but that was to our advantage, no one woould expect us to die first. After Tierce died it wasn't worth posting anymore anyways ;_;

[kortul]

A pity. Going into the night i hoped that we had chances. Was really surprised that AV flipped Aegon.

Wish i actually did look at possible pairs for Pandora. After he switched to Zdenek and put him at L-1 i had a sinking feeling and began to scrutinize his claim, and decided that he might be scum-watcher or something, but at that moment it was too late. Besides, if he remained on AV, game would be over even more reliably.

What happened on the night when BBmola died? I saw no notes in the mod spreadsheet.

[kortul]

And congratulations to the winners.

[4nxi3ty]

congrats stannis

wish I could've played as scum from the very beginning

[One Direction]

What happened on the night when BBmola died? I saw no notes in the mod spreadsheet.

Stannis killed him on the basis they thought he had a decent chance of being Aegon. It's just as well for the game and maybe for them since he site flaked aftwerwards, who knows what a replacement at this stage would have done.

[Faraday]

And if anyone would like to play in my next game (The Wire Season 1) then there's one pre-in slot left. 19p large theme beginning in January.

[Faraday]

Thanks to Myk/Spyrex for reviewing it too.

[kortul]

What happened on the night when BBmola died? I saw no notes in the mod spreadsheet.

Stannis killed him on the basis they thought he had a decent chance of being Aegon. It's just as well for the game and maybe for them since he site flaked aftwerwards, who knows what a replacement at this stage would have done.

And Aegon? Did AV shot him as well? If yes, why?

[One Direction]

Oh, sorry. AV just didn't get his kill in. He misread the deadline.

[One Direction]

He was actively around and talking to me during the night too which made it weirder.

[kortul]

So Minimum was right after all But at the same time, lynching AV would be a disaster, if he would be shy to reveal himself as the last Aegon.

[AurorusVox]

Okay guys, can I just apologise for some of my abysmal play in this game. I went through what I have since realised was a bout of depression IRL, and every time I looked at the game I just couldn't muster the effort to read it (all my past hobbies no longer interested me, not just mafia...) But then the thought of replacing me out made me feel even worse, so I tried my best to keep afloat. When I got "confTown" based on role I tried to just let that keep me in the game.

PS Magua I don't think I ever read your alignment right.

[bvoigt]

I really suck at Mafia.