Micro 948: Noughts and Crosses Blitz [Game over!]

[T-Bone]

You'd have to be certain Maxwell is scum. Are you certain of that, yes or no? It's an auto-loss if he's town.

[T-Bone]

Alternatively you'd have to be so certain I'm scum, because I become the only lynch choice on Day 3. (Now, I know for a fact I'm town). Are you certain I'm scum, and are willing to bet the game on that right now?

[maxwell]

Do you disagree that it is Cats + one of the top left trio? From my perspective, this eliminates 2 of the three. Mafia will have predicted the GuiltyLion lynch plan and so it's almost certain one of you three contains mafia. What they

won't

have predicted however, is the lynch the IC plan, so wouldn't have been placing any chips on this.

Lynching maxwell to force a nightkill on me makes no difference, I could care less, expect it means GuiltyLion will be lynched instead of T-Bone. Despite his condescending thinking pose, GuiltyLion is less likely mafia.

No I don't agree and I think Blair making the survivalist play here speaks volumes, I could be very wrong here but I have trouble scumreading either T-Bone or Clover after their argument, which I know is weird but it's the truth. The beeboy kill actually makes far less sense for any of us in the top corner than simply letting you die, as all of us were almost guaranteed a trip to the final 3 if we did that (and I'd be nearly lynchproof, no sense putting myself at risk to protect the CSF slot when they've been basically useless).

[T-Bone]

If you think I'm actually scum, that's fine. But the difference between lynching GL vs not lynching GL is the choice on Day 3. You can still choose to lynch me on Day 3 if we lynch GL because A) you'd still be alive and would have a vote and B) the tic-tac-toe board becomes a stalemate so it doesn't matter which of the 4 of us gets lynched from that standpoint. But if you and Maxwell are dead, I become the only lynch choice on Day 3 because even if we were to say, lynch CSF and she flips scum, they still autowin Night 3.

[maxwell]

If you're confident I'm scum I give you permission to sort that on day 3 but you selfvoting here is a disaster for town, period.

p-edit: T-Bone beat me to the punch by saying the exact same thing more or less

[Celeste]

If Blair is mafia, why nightkill beeboy rather than maxwell? If she killed maxwell, we would lynch Cats, and it would force us down a Cats D2 > beeboy N2 > T-Bone D3 > Celeste N3 route.

Blair then has a fair chance to win 3p lylo with Clover and GuiltyLion. The route she has chosen here by killing beeboy however leaves her no chance of winning if she is mafia.

[Celeste]

For me, it's one calculated gamble on Clover-town. One of you 3 is mafia.

[maxwell]

If Blair is mafia, why nightkill beeboy rather than maxwell? If she killed maxwell, we would lynch Cats, and it would force us down a Cats D2 > beeboy N2 > T-Bone D3 > Celeste N3 route.

Blair then has a fair chance to win 3p lylo with Clover and GuiltyLion. The route she has chosen here by killing beeboy however leaves her no chance of winning if she is mafia.

I said explicitly end of day 1 that if I'm NKed beeboy or GL should be the lynch instead of CSF/Blair because it lets us take out a board side without killing clover or T-Bone, sticking to the original plan. Additionally, if either of them made that kill, it

would

put them up as a lynch target if we hanged CSF or Blair. Especially from a T-Bone scum perspective that makes absolutely no sense. By end of day 1 a final 3 spot looked inevitable, what do they gain from this? Very little in my view whereas if Blair's scum that kill needs to be taken to prevent scum autoloss.

[maxwell]

I think I got crossed up in my mechanics reading in my last post, sorry. Doesn't really matter. Still think that shot is way more likely to come from scum that are cornered into autoloss and are now trying to get out of it.

[T-Bone]

It's not even about the plan. If I'm scum, fine, deal with me tomorrow. But deal with me in a way that still gives us the choice to win. Scum were dumb enough not to shoot the IC, why do you want to fix their mistake?

[maxwell]

Oh right, there's actually an extremely good reason I wouldn't be the NK for a Blair/CSF scumteam:

maxwell ​ O	Clover Ebi ​	GuiltyLion ​
T-Bone ​	Celeste ​	Blair ​
beeboy ​	Cat Scratch Fever ​	Dunnstral ​ X

This is what day 2 starts like. Seeing as I'd strongly scumread CSF, the obvious play is to lynch beeboy, forcing the NK on CSF. Once again, I said as much end of day 1.

maxwell ​ O	Clover Ebi ​	GuiltyLion ​
T-Bone ​	Celeste ​	Blair ​
beeboy ​ X	Cat Scratch Fever ​ O	Dunnstral ​ X

From there it's again mechanical town autowin, you lynch GL and scum can't prevent town from getting 3 in a row. Even if town went for GL - > Blair, the result is the same and there's basically no reason to go to the sides instead. Like I said, this was their only play.

[maxwell]

I should just act like I'm 100% confident T-Bone is town.

[T-Bone]

please don't pocket me

[Clover Ebi]

VOTE: Guilty Lion

L-1

[maxwell]

I'm fully prepared to eat shit in lylo if I'm wrong about this.

[T-Bone]

I'll hammer once I hear from GuiltyLion as to what I asked him last night.

[Blair]

We have over 24 hours left in the phase and suddenly just because Celeste self-votes now you're in a rush? What happened to the importance of us taking advantage of our unforced phases to consider our options and the immeasurable value of the IC's input?

Remember when T-Bone and Maxwell thought it was super scummy to disregard the value of the IC because we would want them alive so they could weigh in on our options? Pepperidge Farm remembers.

The desperation that suddenly reared its ugly head when Celeste cast her vote is painting a new picture. Maxwell/T-Bone is looking more believable than before - almost like scum pissed they thought they had a win lined up from Day 1 and they overplayed their hand.

CSF scum still makes the most sense due to the nightkill, which I don't really understand coming from just Max/T-Bone, but that nightkill is literally the only reason I'm doubting that solve based on the interactions of the last page and a half.

[T-Bone]

I guess maxwell, clover, and I are scum together weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee!!!!!!!!111

[Blair]

I didn't say anything about Clover. What a strange rebuttal.

[maxwell]

I love to forfeit autowin as scum for no good reason, throwing games is my passion

[Umlaut]

Cat Scratch Fever was prodded. She has (expired on 2020-06-19 05:30:31) to pick up her prod.

[Blair]

I guess maxwell, clover, and I are scum together weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee!!!!!!!!111

I love to forfeit autowin as scum for no good reason, throwing games is my passion

[T-Bone]

I mean I actually think you're scum so I'm just kinda trolling here.

[maxwell]

The desperation from both of us is entirely reasonable given that from either of our PoV, your vote kills 2 slots we know are town for only one unknown flip, and if that slot is town it's a town loss. Zero benefit and enormous downside. I'm not self-sacrificing to get a single unknown flip that's not a strong scumread. Could just as well ask why you're so desperate to deflect this vote when your death doesn't put the town in a potential autoloss gamestate (and really I think we both know the answer to that).

[GuiltyLion]

Declaring that he's gonna be the deciding vote on Day 4 when we haven't even finished Day 2 tells me he may actually know the board. Otherwise you would not be so quick to dismiss a Maxwell/Bone scum pairing. Which objectively that pairing makes a ton of sense regardless of how you feel about any other player.

Plus treating yourself as confirmed town when you are at best tied for the most townread player is not a protown look. This is really awful coming from Clover two days before that could even happen.

GL as my potentially soon to be confirmed town buddy, bounce your ideas with me. Pretend you have a nullread on everyone for the moment. What do you think?

I entirely see where you're coming from with this - assuming you are town, this makes a lot of sense, and a lot of your follow up posts felt town in how you are handling this to me as well.

However, I see Clover's PoV too, and I'm ultimately siding with Maxwell I think in that this ... kinda looks overall TvT to me, especially given Blair's increasing desperation to prolong her own flip and her failure to consider PoVs I think she would consider as town. Blair strikes me as a smart/capable person, the fact that she apparently can't see all of our points and is instead voteparking on conftown leads me to believe she

must

be scum, WIFOMy NK aside.

All that said, this is a very good question:

I think you're taking my comment the wrong way, but this has helped me regardless.

Pray tell, how has this helped you in reading T-Bone?

Clover, did you answer this?