Scum Are Winning Large Themes More Then Town

[RadiantCowbells]

actually sec

[RadiantCowbells]

if we assume that none of the douses get lynched it's a pretty nuts 12.3% winrate

[RadiantCowbells]

if we assume that none of the douses get lynched it's a pretty nuts 12.3% winrate

[RadiantCowbells]

oof

[Flavor Leaf]

It’s because I was only town in one of those games.

[Flavor Leaf]

Kidding. Yeah, people can just say and get away with anything as scum these days.

[Alisae]

You don’t even have to say anything
You can lurk and town will just kill themselves.

[chennisden]

a lot of the "townsided" setups were actually scum sweeps

[RadiantCowbells]

only in large themes

town were doing better in some of the other queues but a lot of the townies that were winning those games have stopped playing or toned down their playing

[Oversoul]

I think town are most likely to win mini normals since those seem to be easiest to balance.

[Ankamius]

I'd like to note that in basically all my large theme games, whether town won seemed to depend mostly on whether town was able to pull its shit together lategame.

The biggsst problem I see with larger games is that when you inevitably get through flipping scum, there's so much time for the scumteam to prepare for it that it's more likely people are going to get screwed up by it and get endgamed by a single or more deepwolf. This happened in merchants daughter, gay dance to an extent, and AvP to some extent

There are also those games where town can't properly come together at any point and it just takes enough effort to not allow a mistaken scumflip to out the entire team in order for scum to have a near perfect chance at winning the game

I think a lot of the issues with large themes for town come down to these:

1. Most players can't read associatives and don't realize they can't, I'd even argue this applies to virtually everybody
2. People are in the mindset that scum lynches are necessarily a good thing, which tends to cause towns to think they're winning when they only have a higher than standard numbers advantage (which isn't especially advantageous in most games in context)
3. Related to 2, momentum swings way too easily and scum can get multiple free mislynches just by allowing town to get too excited off a scumlynch at the right time, while towns can have a fairly good shot at winning a game off multiple mislynches and yet lose all motivation to care anymore
4. Towns in large themes have a unique problem where a lot of player lists will have a mixture of people that are able to get into games quickly but can't can't maintain their momentum, while other players can generally only have success when the numbers have gone down more
5. Mechanics are easier for scum to abuse and harder for town to abuse because a lot of mechanics are lesser known and what the scumteam has available to them is far harder to predict

There's more but ultimately I think the underlying problem behind the very low win rate in large themes comes down to the meta and how people play, it is far harder to get results in games with more out there mechanics and larger player lists with more noise in them, and lategame is generally harder for town the longer the game goes on because the scumteam have more room to eliminate power players before LyLo

[RadiantCowbells]

Unpopular opinion: there's no such thing as late game players, only players who are more successful at hitting scum when they have higher odds.

[Alisae]

that unpopular opinion triggers me

[Ankamius]

that assumes going by EV, which is a faulty premise in the first place

[RadiantCowbells]

saying that you're more likely to vote scum with an arbitrary vote than town in the late game is a demonstrably true statement?

[RadiantCowbells]

and like I'm more referring to people saying

"oh my reads were good late game"

after they mislynched all the incorrect scumreads that they had and were left with the one person who was actually scum and who was closer to a null read but eventually moved down to the bottom

[Ramcius]

I'd like to note that in basically all my large theme games, whether town won seemed to depend mostly on whether town was able to pull its shit together lategame.

The biggsst problem I see with larger games is that when you inevitably get through flipping scum, there's so much time for the scumteam to prepare for it that it's more likely people are going to get screwed up by it and get endgamed by a single or more deepwolf. This happened in merchants daughter, gay dance to an extent, and AvP to some extent

There are also those games where town can't properly come together at any point and it just takes enough effort to not allow a mistaken scumflip to out the entire team in order for scum to have a near perfect chance at winning the game

I think a lot of the issues with large themes for town come down to these:

1. Most players can't read associatives and don't realize they can't, I'd even argue this applies to virtually everybody
2. People are in the mindset that scum lynches are necessarily a good thing, which tends to cause towns to think they're winning when they only have a higher than standard numbers advantage (which isn't especially advantageous in most games in context)
3. Related to 2, momentum swings way too easily and scum can get multiple free mislynches just by allowing town to get too excited off a scumlynch at the right time, while towns can have a fairly good shot at winning a game off multiple mislynches and yet lose all motivation to care anymore
4. Towns in large themes have a unique problem where a lot of player lists will have a mixture of people that are able to get into games quickly but can't can't maintain their momentum, while other players can generally only have success when the numbers have gone down more
5. Mechanics are easier for scum to abuse and harder for town to abuse because a lot of mechanics are lesser known and what the scumteam has available to them is far harder to predict

There's more but ultimately I think the underlying problem behind the very low win rate in large themes comes down to the meta and how people play, it is far harder to get results in games with more out there mechanics and larger player lists with more noise in them, and lategame is generally harder for town the longer the game goes on because the scumteam have more room to eliminate power players before LyLo

Ank, how you propose to win a game without lynching scum?

I agree with 4, I lose my interest fast, when all I hear is "I don't know how to play D1", "I will be useful late game" or "can anyone meta this or that"

[Ankamius]

I'm referring to towns thinking they are necessarily winning the game because they lynched scum

for reference, this is assuming that you're lynching the scum that are least likely to endgame in the first place first

[Ramcius]

I'm referring to towns thinking they are necessarily winning the game because they lynched scum

for reference, this is assuming that you're lynching the scum that are least likely to endgame in the first place first

Lynching bad scum or not lynching bad scum has no real impact on the game. If people can't catch other scum, they can't win. So going back to our old conversation, how no lynch helps finding good scums? Considering you claim people are bad at associations, so keeping bad scum alive has no real merits

[Alisae]

It kinda does feel like after D1 town stops playing the game properly.

[FakeGod]

Hey, do you guys feel a small satisfaction when your setup is deemed town or scumsided but the underdogs win? They really "proved" themselves, overcoming the setup disadvantage with stupendous play etc

[popsofctown]

"Satisfaction" is not the right word, I'm relieved the strong play minimized the harm caused by my failure as a mod.

[FakeGod]

Any time player skills overcome the setup I am happy

Bigger the mountain the better

[zoraster]

i've got good news for you then, fakegod. the next fortnight is going to be played soon. Fortnight is the hardest game on the site to win!

[RadiantCowbells]

i've got good news for you then, fakegod. the next fortnight is going to be played soon. Fortnight is the hardest game on the site to win!

False

Fortnight is way easier for scum than Gameshow was