Mini 925: Umineko No Naku Koro Ni Mafia: GAME OVER!

[UncertainKitten]

The Ninteenth "Mortal Stampede" Vote Count

"At the first twilight, you shall lift up as sacrifice the six chosen by the key."

Mod Note: I have another set of spoilers I'll be posting after this votecount

2. RayFrost (0)
3. StrangerCoug (0)
4. DisCode (1): Snow_Bunny
5. Snow_Bunny (1)
7. Kairyuu (0)
9. Leech (0)


Not Voting (5): RayFrost, DisCode, Kairyuu, StrangerCoug, Leech

With 6 alive it takes 4 to lynch
Deadline is in 13 days at 7:00 PM EST, Tuesday, March 23rd, 2010

[Snow_Bunny]

XD

I must read that one day. I really must.

Spoiler 2:

(These aren't real. The visual novel is a little more serious. Though I still wouldn't put any of this past Kinzo)

[StrangerCoug]

I would like to know how Leech thought it necessary to claim out of turn. He is not the same person as Snow_Bunny, is he?

HoS: Leech

Even if I could think of a good reason to interrupt claims with a vote, I think you're more likely SK than Mafia, which is why I'm not voting you.

I agree with Kairyuu with regards to RayFrost and the latter is starting to act funny.

Spoiler 3:

[Leech]

HoS: Leech

Even if I could think of a good reason to interrupt claims with a vote, I think you're more likely SK than Mafia, which is why I'm not voting you.

Ok, you say I'm more likely SK than Mafia, but make no mention of whether I'm more likely SK than a one-shot Vig. Also, if you are suspicious of me, why aren't you suspicious of this:

I was blocked on N1 (maybe by the same ability that made me disappear from the game), and on N2 I found Leech is affiliated with town. So, this, unless sanity issues are present, confirms him (well, at least for me).

SB claims to have an innocent ability read on me, which would rule out SK or mafia yes? So if you're suspicious of me, why aren't you equally suspicious of her for claiming what she claimed?

I'm not sure I follow your logic on the matter with all things considered.

[Kairyuu]

I would like to know how Leech thought it necessary to claim out of turn. He is not the same person as Snow_Bunny, is he?

HoS: Leech

Even if I could think of a good reason to interrupt claims with a vote, I think you're more likely SK than Mafia, which is why I'm not voting you.

I agree with Kairyuu with regards to RayFrost and the latter is starting to act funny.

Leech is conf-town. As is SB so far as I'm concerned. I believe our mystery voter may be right about Ray, but it's essentially down to you, Discode, and him as to where the remaining 2 scum are hiding (I fully believe that there is a second scumgroup at this point).

[StrangerCoug]

HoS: Leech

Even if I could think of a good reason to interrupt claims with a vote, I think you're more likely SK than Mafia, which is why I'm not voting you.

Ok, you say I'm more likely SK than Mafia, but make no mention of whether I'm more likely SK than a one-shot Vig.

If I thought you were more likely one-shot vig than SK, I would not have HoS'd you.

Also, if you are suspicious of me, why aren't you suspicious of this:

I was blocked on N1 (maybe by the same ability that made me disappear from the game), and on N2 I found Leech is affiliated with town. So, this, unless sanity issues are present, confirms him (well, at least for me).

SB claims to have an innocent ability read on me, which would rule out SK or mafia yes? So if you're suspicious of me, why aren't you equally suspicious of her for claiming what she claimed?

One, it's possible that she has a sanity issue. Two, you stick out more than she does.

[StrangerCoug]

Ninja'd by Kairyuu, but my point still stands until I check him again...

[RayFrost]

"But I can beat Bernkastel! So I'm like SUPER PAPER!"

Welcome to Umineko No

Na

ku Koro Ni Mafia,

RayFrost

. You are

LambdaDelta, Townie Rewarder

. You have the following abilities:

Passive Abilities:

You have no passive abilities

Active Abilties:

Witch's Gift

: Target a player at night. If that player is vanilla, they will be given a one shot ability. If that player has a passive or active ability, you will learn their role.[/i]

Win Condition (Town): You win when all threats to the town have been eliminated.

I targeted navy n1, obviously (this would either confirm Navy's role or damn navy, as I wasn't completely certain on the likelihood of navy being town). On n2, I targeted leech, and he's not lying about his role. I targeted leech because he had very few posts, and I felt his contributions were very limited and had little actual scumhunting relative to what I'd expect from previous experience with him.

Also, I am not informed about the actual details of the one-shot ability I give out.

I don't know whether I'd give a mafia goon of some sort an ability if I targeted them, but I'd assume that I wouldn't, as they have the ability to kill thanks to their faction.

I, having gotten the role from leech & navy, do know that I do not get alignment in my results, only the role. Though the mod (oh so helpfully ) provides a small comment saying that the win con and side are both removed.

Spoiler 4:

[StrangerCoug]

Kairyuu, you're going to have to elaborate on Leech and Snow_Bunny being confirmed town, because I'm having trouble finding where the stuff is looking at you in ISO.

[StrangerCoug]

Ninja'd again. This is going to be very interesting, so dropping all suspicions for now.

[Kairyuu]

That leaves discode.

Regardless of who is actually what, Leech is now confirmed town. Snow calls him town based on cop investigation, and Ray says he's not lying about his abilities, which are not abilities you would have if you were scum (extra kills don't happen unless the mod really doesn't want the town to win).

Hence, Leech is conf-town.

SB makes sense as town also, though that's merely my opinion. Also, this seems to be a case of the lynch-bait townie with SC. We know that Tar had a death ability because he told us he did, so he wasn't actually vanilla. Every other claim except SC's, and every flip has been a power role. Therefore, SC is most likely the "lynch bait townie," a role drawn from the fact that UK, like me, is part of the Tarhalindur fanclub.

If one assumes all of the above to be true, that leaves two players, discode and RayFrost, as the remaining scum. I want very badly to see a Discode claim/role pm post right about now, but I think we've got scum locked down.

[StrangerCoug]

I'm a Tar fan too

But yeah. I know what I am, Kairyuu is confirmed, Leech doesn't fit as scum anymore and I don't have reason to believe that Snow_Bunny is scum right now. RayFrost's role screams like a role cop, which is more common for scum than town to have, and 8:2:2 leaves Discode as scum by process of elimination.

[RayFrost]

'ey kai, why, exactly, did you say you thought I was claiming scum RB?

and why, exactly, would I claim scum?

[Kairyuu]

'ey kai, why, exactly, did you say you thought I was claiming scum RB?

and why, exactly, would I claim scum?

You said twice that my logic was flawed in confirming you because you could be part of another scum faction. Keep in mind that until then it had crossed NO ONE'S mind that there would be multiple scum factions, as this hardly ever happens in mini games. The fact that you kept hinting at it, along with the fact that I was roleblocked N2, means that you were probably right, and the only way you could reliably know that would be if you were part of said faction. Also, it would make perfect sense for a scum roleblocker in a DIFFERENT faction than magnus and CSL to target the claimed power role with a block, because that way you'd ensure that the role didn't go off, while still being able to kill magnus, who must have been a priority to you.

@all: Going back to Navy's claim, we know that he did not attempt his global RB, because if he had it would have almost definitely worked. Since he did not do that, it is MUCH more likely that he attempted to use his 1 shot vig because he expected to die anyway. Since there was not an extra kill N1 (this game is looking scarier and scarier for the town the more I know about the setup), it implies that Navy WAS roleblocked. Of course, this is speculation, as he could have used the doc protect or the investigation, but given his join date, it seems much more likely to me that he would take his vig shot over anything else because vig shots are really friggen cool. This points to Ray as a RB. I'm actually pretty much certain of it at this point.

vote: RayFrost

I no longer care about discode's claim. If he's scum then he's caught.

@Snow: You will investigate discode tonight. The scum cannot win if Ray is one of them. As you investigate discode I will watch you. If Ray flips mafia RB like I think he will then the last scum, which is confirmed to be between Coug and discode will be completely unable to win, because if they kill you, I will see them do it, and if they kill me, you will either have a caught scum by investigation or a caught scum by process of elimination.

@Coug or Discode (whichever isn't scum): If I die I expect you to trust Snow implicitly tomorrow, and if I don't I expect the same regarding me. I take full responsibility if I'm wrong about any of this. I believe it's time to lynch RF.

[StrangerCoug]

@Coug or Discode (whichever isn't scum): If I die I expect you to trust Snow implicitly tomorrow, and if I don't I expect the same regarding me. I take full responsibility if I'm wrong about any of this. I believe it's time to lynch RF.

I understand.

Vote: RayFrost

[Kairyuu]

@Tar: If I'm wrong you have full permission to yell at me, but if you'd trust me and move your vote back to Ray that would be awesome.

@all: I believe that Tar's death ability was to retain the ability to vote (possibly to post as well; if this is true a post to confirm it would be awesome).

Also, just saying, but if I'm wrong about Ray and he's right about the second scumteam, then we lose, due to a 2-2 tomorrow. So if I'm wrong, this is all my fault. 'Course, I don't think I'm wrong, but meh.

[RayFrost]

And you believe that I out and out revealed my hand for... what reason?

[UncertainKitten]

Beatrice would like you to know that with SEVEN alive it is FOUR to lynch.

Now for important stuff. Everyone, you're neglecting the last person who can be scum - namely, Kairyuu himself.

The existence of two scumgroups has been MOD CONFIRMED (red text, yo!), so 1) Kairyuu's continued refusal to believe in two scumgroups is incredibly scummy and 2) the "why would I out CSL" argument doesn't fly (of course he'd out CSL - he's in the other group!). Moreover, there's already one investigative role too many for a Mini, and watcher makes sense on a Mafioso.

As for other players: Leech is confirmed town by double confirmation. StrangerCoug is confirmed town (

There is only one vanilla townie in the game

). Probably one of the other investigative roles is town (leaning RayFrost, but not sure about that).

I have another comment to make on the claims, but it will wait until DisCode (and me, I suppose) has claimed. Also, you should totally ask questions in blue text if able.

Unvote, Vote: Kairyuu

[RayFrost]

So, wait... is that tar?

[Kairyuu]

Yup. That's Tar. I was right.

@Tar (or whoever else is posting as UK):

Could you please point out where I refuse to believe that there are 2 scumgroups after the mod confirmation of such? In fact, I believe I pointed out to someone (I think it was Snow) that the reason Ray was not confirmed was because Leech's kill claim meant that there WAS two scumgroups (because that would mean that one scumgroup was gone).

Since it's 7-2 at the moment, given that you still apparently count as a living player still, we have one more mislynch. The two scum are Ray and Discode. Lynch me if you have to, but when I'm dead you sure as hell better lynch them in rapid succession. I figured out the setup and I'm not letting that go to waste by losing because you don't believe me.

[Kairyuu]

Bleh. That first paragraph was supposed to be blue.

[Kairyuu]

tl;dr: Lynch me if you must, but you're lynching the scum I caught you immediately afterwards. I don't feel like losing.

[Kairyuu]

Oh, also, note my (admittedly speculative, but probably right imo) proof for why Ray is the scum RB.

Quadposting ftw!

[Snow_Bunny]

Hmm, interesting things happened.

Both Kairyuu and Tar bring good points to the table. Both Ray and Kairyuu are top suspicious right now. Kairyuu's points about Ray are good, specially the part about the inside knowledge of an extra faction. But, Tar's points about Kairyuu are also good. In fact, we all have treated Kairyuu as confirmed because he claimed a confirmed watcher action, but that doesn't discard the fact that he can be scum from another faction. Here's Kairyuu's reasoning why he's confirmed:

Reason I'm confirmed town:

I saw RayFrost target Navy N1. Since CSL is the mafiate who both killed and redirected Navy N1, neither I or RayFrost can be mafia. Also, since we targetted Navy, and not magnus, we also cannot be the SK (assuming there is one).

So Ray and I are confirmed town.

In fact, that can as well proof nothing as Kairyuu being town. It might prove he is a watcher, but watchers are not always aligned with town, specially when there's more than one faction. His eagerness to prove that there was only one scum group is also odd. Why, wouldn't it be the perfect way to ensure his victory? I can even stretch his actions toward Ray as a first try to secure his comrade and then bus him as it failed. However, reading Ray gives me a better vibe, and thus I think that only as a stretch.

Add that to the planing of today's and tonight's actions and we have something fishy going on here.

I won't rule out Discode or Ray yet (in fact, chances are one of them is Kairyuu's partner. Discode's lack of activity is reaaaaaally suspicious), but right now I rather go for the top one.

Unvote, vote: Kairyuu

[Kairyuu]

Oy oy. Can the misrep already. First you and now Tar. Look at things LOGICALLY. How often are there 2 scumgroups in a mini that isn't open? The answer to that is ALMOST NEVER. It was a completely valid assumption for me to claim that we were dealing with an original 8-3-1 setup based on the kills. Hell, most people agreed with me at first. It wasn't until Leech claimed a kill that the assumption failed to be valid.

You know what, fuck it. I'm going to go with my original gut instinct. Either myself or Snow_Bunny is scum. Discode is the last scum. Why am I suddenly flipping on Ray, you ask? Simple. Ray's roleclaim is nonstandard. While I would love to believe that UK would be awesome enough to include a nonstandard role as a fakeclaim for one of the members of her mafia (and have been working under that assumption since the claim), I don't think she would come up with an awesome role like that just so that she could NOT include it. RayFrost is almost definitely town.

Since Tar is right, and there is one too many investigative roles in this game, that leaves me and Snow. Both of us have claimed standard roles. I don't remember if UK is in the "I hate cops" fanclub, but if she is then it pretty readily points to Snow. The jump onto the offered misrep after previously trusting me completely and claiming to agree with my logic on how I'm confirmed in order to "lock down" the scum to Coug and Discode (note how she no longer has anything to say about Coug now that he's been confirmed).

In addition to that, Tarhalindur is confirmed town. I trust UK to make a somewhat balanced setup. Extremely swingy, but balanced. For that reason, she would not make a game where the town must manage to kill FIVE scum in a 12 player game. Therefore, the fact that Tarhalindur needs to be killed twice to actually leave the game (going by the usual death mechanics in Tar games that I believe UK to be following), he must be aligned with the town.

That leaves THREE POSSIBLE SCUM. SNOW, DISCODE, AND MYSELF. We have one mislynch. Scum lose. So fuck it. Lynch me. I didn't expect to survive to today anyway, so I can't honestly say I mind. I already got you a scum lynch, and I'm handing you the remaining two. I trust that when I'm dead you WON'T IGNORE THIS POST, and you'll speedlynch Snow and Discode. Hell, if you REALLY want, we can lynch Discode today, since he's the one who's confirmed scum in all situations.

So fuck it. It's a 1-1 with me and Snow. Shall I hand you another scum and be confirmed completely, or will you lynch the one who handed you CSL on a silver platter D2, preventing an unwinnable situation for the town? You decide.

vote: Snow_Bunny