Okay. Well it wasn't a good move, in my opinion, when you could have given us so much more than just that. Here's the post I was in the middle of writing. It still stands.
I haven't finished re-reading, and whilst I do think it's worthwhile, it's true that it'll probably be of more value once we have a flip one way or the other. What I've read so far hasn't changed my opinions from the start of the Day.
The way I see it, if CES hadn't been killed, we'd almost certainly be lynching Dan today, probably AV tomorrow, and then maybe Nexus or inspi (assuming the game wasn't already over).
Therefore if scum aren't in that group of players, I just can't see why they would bother to kill CES, because they would have a good shot at winning with him still alive. At the very least they could wait until the protective roles were dead, to prevent the risk of missing or misfiring.
And killing CES carried risk for both Dan and inspi as scum. Dan because he can't guarantee the kill goes through (except if he is scum with inspi), and whilst missing just one kill might not be too damaging to the scum-team, there are two roles in the game that can cause them to lose a kill, so if the plan goes wrong they could effectively give the town an extra Day. It's still possible that a Dan-?? scumteam would take this risk; either way I see it as more likely that they would do so if the partner is among the players I've listed above.
For inspi, it seems odd because (unless he is scum with Dan), in doing this he has brought his own lynch forward by several days (by my estimation). And if inspi is scum with anyone besides the players I mentioned above, he may have been able to win fairly easily without killing CES.
To me, if inspi flips scum here, the most likely partner is Dan. CES spent the whole of yesterday trying to get us to lynch Dan and I'm not about to disregard that. A scumteam of Dan-inspi had the most to gain and the least to lose from killing CES. I said just now that it would surely make sense for most scum-teams to wait until the protective roles are lynched before killing CES; that's never gonna work if the protective roles ARE the scum. It was likely that they would both be lynched before the game was over.
AVox is my second pick for scum-partner with either inspi or Dan. I don't think the WIFOM of him trying to draw the investigation is worth enough to discount him. So many people were trying to get him lynched that a guilty investigation wouldn't have made him that much worse off; and I can also believe that he might make that kind of bluff as scum, in the hope that Max would respond as he did.
Nexus would be my third pick, but to be honest I found his total lack of comprehension in
#521 came across as real, not fake; and I think he would have more awareness if he was scum.
That brings you mostly up-to-date with my thoughts from the mason topic. I'll post anything extra if I think of it, and/or once we have the flip.
