Open 849 - Panic Room! -- Game over!

[Aristeia]

it's not really about the same way - it's like a negative void space where a read should be but isn't.

I didnt think there was enuf to read bella off of off that one post. It was a bad post but didnt lock-scum her or anything, and she left before i could ask her abt it more

ok fair but I still don't really know what your read on the slot is and fire's posted a few times already

[skitter30]

Fair enuf but i guess for me i'm not really seeing anything convincing me that that slot is the bomb

Also if you're basing the bomb-read off of preflips/teamreads, but both of you are coming to the same conclusions from vastly different angles that kinda negates the bomb read for me

Like you're coming to the same conclusion, but starting from different teams

I dont think i explained this thought well, i'll see if i can word it bettwr

[skitter30]

Oh i thought i said he was townie? Did i not say that?

[Aristeia]

Oh i thought i said he was townie? Did i not say that?

um I don't see it in your iso.

can you expand on why you read him as town?

[Aristeia]

same conclusions from vastly different angles

to me this actually increases his bomb equity as it expands the number of possible universes with bomb!fire

[skitter30]

I gotta bounce but i'll be back in a bit, sorry

[Aristeia]

ttyl dear!

[skitter30]

sorry my work instituted return-to-office 2x a weeka couple weeks back so i need to spend time on things like 'commuting' instead of 'bickering with people online'

Spoiler:

You are thinking about this too hard fire. It's not that complicated, you overthink a lot imo

I do too to be fair, I don't mean that in a mean way sorry if it came off like that. You are obviously a much better and more thinking player than I am.

see it's stuff like this
a) i do overthink a lot, but i think it would be more overthinking for me to disregard my gut scumread due to it being too obvious or whatever
b) i don't think im a better player than you and i think the way you're not giving yourself credit here, assuming it wasn't sarcastic, feels forced and fake

yeet why do you think im town

I think your push on me feels organic. There's a lot of things going on in the word organic that I'm not really sure how to explain right now.

Fire, what do you think about this answer?

i don't think it's a very good answer. doesn't even make sense bc he townread me before I pushed him. and i don't know what about my push would look so organic that he would call me town that strongly for it

so im being scumread for:
1) my previous slot rvs vote
2) my previous slot replacing out
3) me voting someone who is scummy and getting townread by them and therefore i must be partners with them and i must be the bomb

am i missing anything

please tell me im missing something

idk if you're talking to me or ydrasse. so correct me if im wrong here, but this sounds like another one of those "yeet is being suspected, if he's scum, x player is probably the bomb" theories

forgive me if im not especially enthused by those considering i at least know they're 0/1 so far

and i thought umlaut looked more towny than scummy anyway

i liked these posts ^ it isn't a strong townread, but i don't see anything to scumread him for either, and i'm not convinced bella's entrance made the slot scum either

~

and wrt 'bomb!fire' - i'm going to try to reword this cuz i dont' think i got my thought across
we're bombreading people based on how either people interact with the slot, right?
so a bomb-read has to be a result of a team-read (or a team-read has to come about because of a bomb-read, whatever)

but *your teamread* and *ydra's teamread* can't both be right at the same time (he can't be scum with all of me/catboi/yeet; i guess you can argue it's exactly fire + yeet + one of {me/cat} but then you have to be arguing that's exactly the teamread)

like unless you want to argue that the team is exactly fire/yeet + one of me/cat
one of you has to be wrong

meaning the fact that you're both coming to that conclusion doesn't really like 'double' the weight of the read or anything
because each of you can't be right

so this thought doesn't make sense to me, that multiple people thinking fire is bomb is making it more likely
did i explain that better this time?

[skitter30]

same conclusions from vastly different angles

to me this actually increases his bomb equity as it expands the number of possible universes with bomb!fire

like i don't get this as a thought

[Aristeia]

If there are more interactions with more players that point towards Fire!Bomb - it decreases the probability of any specific team solve being correct but it increases the probability that fire is the bomb.

Perhaps I am wrong about my teamread of Fire!bomb and Ydra is correct about her teamread of Fire!bomb, but that still means Fire is the bomb.

[fireisredsir]

i think this game state is really kinda interesting tbh. im just gonna thought dump a bit apologies if this is somewhat directionless

the original bomb tinfoil theory from roden and ydrasse feels more on the towny side, but i think the people taking it and running with it (monkey, ari? idr if anyone else was) could be taking advantage of that. it's kind of an easy place for scum to sit, bomb hunting, because you can vote in places where you don't have to give any actual reason for a scumread, just string together some preflip associations

and hey while we're all doing preflip associations, i want to do some too, that sounds fun

~

if im right that yeet came in expecting to get townread for his play but miscalculated and came off looking p bad instead, imo his scum partners could be feeling some pressure to do something.

one action that felt strange to me was catboi's progression from 298 to 373 to 394. i got a feeling of him being under pressure to jump in and pick a side, which felt weird, because up to that point he seemed content to sit back and watch. im not sure what compelled him to vote there beyond putting pressure on yeet to answer his question, but something about it didn't feel right.

monkey stating a dream team of me/umlaut/yeet, and then voting me in 440 but immediately switching to umlaut in 441, was another action that felt pressured in some way. im not sure why he landed on umlaut of all people when the other two in his solve were already wagons. maybe afraid to pick a side?

idk for sure if either of these really fit perfectly, but they stood out to me

~

if yeet is town, i think there's less pressure and so it's less likely that scum is making any mistakes. scum may want to prop up our two wagons to make sure the lim is between town, but i think likely would mostly be sitting back and letting things happen.

enchant kinda fits the sitting back and letting things happen, but i also kinda townread them based off not much

skitter seems very reasonable to me and idk if i trust that

umlaut's comments on yeet felt a little awkward but i think he's more likely to be town

could be ari in this scenario? im less confident in reading this situation from a yeet town perspective, maybe bc i don't really see that as likely

~

i haven't mentioned roden, ydrasse, and andante as possibilities much here, i think im kinda considering these town for now? ill prob meta read the first two at some point cause idk how they usually play. im also kinda curious why andante hasn't tried to talk to me in order to sort, but maybe she's just busy?

[fireisredsir]

hmm yeet's two recent votes were catboi and monkey

[catboi]

re-read everything and my first guess for the team is fire - skitter - catboi

VOTE: fireisredsir

If you pull up skitter/catboi's isos - there's a marked lack of discussion of bella/fire's actual alignment despite engagement around the slot which feels susp.

1. Do you think I deliberately avoid a teammate in that way?

2. Independent of any associative reads, why is fire mafia?

[Aristeia]

he has a lot less confidence than his completed town game

[Aristeia]

Fire Iso

his style here is a lot more proactive and decisive - here he feels more noncommital/careful/worried

[Aristeia]

1. Do you think I deliberately avoid a teammate in that way?

I think you'd be fine bussing him if he wasn't a bomb.

[fireisredsir]

Fire Iso

his style here is a lot more proactive and decisive - here he feels more noncommital/careful/worried

it's easy to be confident when i'm a cop and everyone townreads me

[Aristeia]

they townread you because you were confident

you weren't confident because they townread you

[skitter30]

If there are more interactions with more players that point towards Fire!Bomb - it decreases the probability of any specific team solve being correct but it increases the probability that fire is the bomb.

Perhaps I am wrong about my teamread of Fire!bomb and Ydra is correct about her teamread of Fire!bomb, but that still means Fire is the bomb.

No, that's not how teamreads work, you're like starting with the assumption that fire is bomb and working backwardsa

Do u scumread me or cat independantly of fire?
Or only as potential partners

[skitter30]

Fire Iso

his style here is a lot more proactive and decisive - here he feels more noncommital/careful/worried

I dont know anything abt that game, but i dont think he's careful or worried, and i'm not convinced the differences cant be explained by him repping in

[Aristeia]

If there are more interactions with more players that point towards Fire!Bomb - it decreases the probability of any specific team solve being correct but it increases the probability that fire is the bomb.

Perhaps I am wrong about my teamread of Fire!bomb and Ydra is correct about her teamread of Fire!bomb, but that still means Fire is the bomb.

No, that's not how teamreads work, you're like starting with the assumption that fire is bomb and working backwardsa

Do u scumread me or cat independantly of fire?
Or only as potential partners

I'm just talking about the p-value for Fire being a bomb.

The more team-reads/theories with Fire being a bomb pop out, the more likely it becomes he is a bomb, not less likely.

I do scumread you/cat independently of the Fire associatives.

[skitter30]

No offense ari but i think ur fire bombread is somewhat flimsy, as if your reasoning for ur teamread
Pedit i dont really think it works that way
Ans i'm interested in ur scumreads of me/cat

[Aristeia]

No offense ari but i think ur fire bombread is somewhat flimsy, as if your reasoning for ur teamread
Pedit i dont really think it works that way
Ans i'm interested in ur scumreads of me/cat

Catboi feels like he's less motivated than how he feels when he's town - he feels like tired mafia.

You don't feel like you believe in your yeet push.

[skitter30]

I'm willing to give cat a bit
And i think yeet is scum
I'm also starting to think ur scum

[fireisredsir]

skitter what's your current read on monkey