Mini 518: Underground Mafia, The Nightmare is Over!


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Post Post #550 (ISO) » Sun Nov 11, 2007 12:01 pm

Post by Adel »

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Post Post #551 (ISO) » Sun Nov 11, 2007 12:05 pm

Post by Korlash »

Yeah I heard you did those... Can ask what it is actually supposed to prove? Or is it just something fancy?
It's not my job to be right, it's my job to be convincing.

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Post Post #552 (ISO) » Sun Nov 11, 2007 12:18 pm

Post by Adel »

hmmm... takes more than four minutes analyze one. As a diagram, it visually represents information. This diagram documents the votes so far in this game, after the random voting phase.
It show who voted for whom, at what vote count. I find it to be a very useful reference for identifying patterns in voting including: conspicuous amounts of interaction, lack of interaction, vote following, vote hopping, lurking, and others. It also lets me see if a specific player likes to hop on a wagon early.

It contains far more information than literally dozens of your posts do.
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Post Post #553 (ISO) » Sun Nov 11, 2007 12:45 pm

Post by Adel »

oh, and to me it show that despite your activity level, and the stupidity of your posts, and the 20 page length of this game, you have not had a scum-powered wagon on you today. If you were a townie, a sharp-minded scumbag would've ran at least a decent wagon on you by now.

If you were a power role you would've kept a lower profile - unless you are a far greater idiot than what I take you for.

So I conclude that scum haven't tried to get you lynched in 20+ pages of posts, despite having the chance to.
Note that Sudo-nym's post containing the reasons why he is voting for Korlash seems scummy as hell to me. He may be a scum buddy irritated at Korlash for trying to engage me in debate like Korlash did. It will be interesting to see when or if he jumps of my shiny new Korlash wagon. I suspect that Sudo-nym is scum that was hoping to lurk through to most of the day and hop on a townie wagon with the last vote before the hammer.


I also conclude that you are not a power role.

I calculated the following odds based upon past games I've played in or read:

Korlash's chance of being Town-Aligned: ~28%
If
Korlash is Town-Aligned, the chance of him being a powerrole: ~15%

These are great numbers for a Day 1 lynch candidate! About the lowest I've ever seen.
I am all about lynching Korlash at this point. Partially, this is because my models for scum behavior become much weaker for day 1 that last much more than 25 pages. The sample size for 25+ page day 1 normal mini's is smaller than many recent games would seem to indicate.
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Post Post #554 (ISO) » Sun Nov 11, 2007 12:45 pm

Post by Korlash »

gee thanks... *rolls eyes*

So... It more or less shows a lot from jitsu... very little from AA actually.. I thought he had done more...

And me in the Middle =D yay!
It's not my job to be right, it's my job to be convincing.

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Post Post #555 (ISO) » Sun Nov 11, 2007 1:07 pm

Post by Adel »

You asked me to lay out my case against you. You asked me to explain why I was voting for you- so I did - and
that
is your response?
˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚
˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛˛
ˇˇˇˇˇhush....ˇˇˇˇˇchild, it is time for you to sleep the long sleep...ˇˇˇˇˇgo to sleep now Korlashˇˇˇˇˇ


˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚
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Post Post #556 (ISO) » Sun Nov 11, 2007 1:31 pm

Post by Korlash »

Dude... both posts were posted at the same time ok.. I totally missed your post 553... Take it easy... I'm glad to see you really do have issues with me though... Kinda creepy post there though...

Ok first off who made you mafia God? I could easily come into a game, make up low numbers, and say player X is suspicious. But I don't because it is all a load of Crap.
Adel wrote:If you were a power role you would've kept a lower profile - unless you are a far greater idiot than what I take you for.
Oh i know I am a far greater idiot then you take me for... wait...

Anyways, whether you think I am a good player or not I know how to keep the mafia off my back. And looking like a worthless towny day one makes me a very very unlikely NK choice. So I play this way in about 99% of my games. Minusing the newbie games of course.
Adel wrote:If you were a townie, a sharp-minded scumbag would've ran at least a decent wagon on you by now.
Or perhaps I was able to get out of the wagon they tried, or maybe I make a good scapegoat tomorrow, or maybe it just isn't worth the time to switch from the fake Anata case onto a fake me case. You cannot speak for the scum.. unless of course... You know...

So other then calling me stupid and trying to paint me off as some moron player you basically have no real case on me. Nice... I am felling better and better about my vote.

Although I do admit there seems to be a connection between me and Sydo a lot this game hasn't there? Weird...
It's not my job to be right, it's my job to be convincing.

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Post Post #557 (ISO) » Sun Nov 11, 2007 1:40 pm

Post by Adel »

Korlash wrote:And what the heck... I refused to vote for you and insted asked for a reason why you voted me. If I had voted there it would have been purely OMGUS... But instead of giving a reason you more or less admitted you had none... OR that you were refusing to give them... and so I now had a logical reason to vote you.

As for "Confirmation bias" you are way off. I had no intention of voting you before, as I said I merely wanted to find out why you voted me. So any vote then would be OMGUS and I find that to be a very bad reason to vote.

And now that I had a reason to vote I saw no reason not to.

And I do not even know why I am arguing this... either give a reason for your vote, and some input on the game so far, or I see no reason to take my vote off of you.
I've explained my case against you. Why are you still voting for me?
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Post Post #558 (ISO) » Sun Nov 11, 2007 1:58 pm

Post by Korlash »

Cause you have no case...

You have you coming in here pretending your some expert mafia hunter who knows all. That is not a case... that is proabbly the most uncase I have ever seen... No I take that back.. the game were I was lynched for being "To loud" that was the most uncase I have ever seen.. this is a close second...

And I am voting you because you are scum... Or at least I believe you are scum...
It's not my job to be right, it's my job to be convincing.

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Post Post #559 (ISO) » Sun Nov 11, 2007 2:02 pm

Post by Adel »

Just in case anyone missed it, this is what Korlash said when he voted for me:
Korlash wrote:
Adel wrote:nah, I think I'll lurk for the rest of the day, leaving my vote on you because you are the person I think is scum. I don't feel like explaining why the sky often appears blue today, and I don't feel like laying out my case against you.
Ok... Now that I have a reason other then OMGUS,

Unvote:

Vote: Adel
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Post Post #560 (ISO) » Sun Nov 11, 2007 2:04 pm

Post by Korlash »

Ok... Is that your case? cause that happened after you voted me.. so in other words you admit to having no case then...

And I have already explained that... Do I have to spell it out again or are you even dumber then I am? (Not possible... or is it? What's 2+2???)
It's not my job to be right, it's my job to be convincing.

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Post Post #561 (ISO) » Sun Nov 11, 2007 2:20 pm

Post by Adel »

˛ ˛ ˛ ˛ ˛
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Post Post #562 (ISO) » Sun Nov 11, 2007 2:29 pm

Post by Korlash »

Yeah that is so much more helpful then half my posts...

You know if you boil it down to numbers over half of your posts are as unhelpful as mine are... Kinda odd seeing as that is like... your only reason for voting me...
It's not my job to be right, it's my job to be convincing.

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Post Post #563 (ISO) » Sun Nov 11, 2007 3:04 pm

Post by Sudo_Nym »

To be honest, my reasons for voting Korlash are mainly due to his reactions to Adel. Rather than address anything, he just called it all a load of crap and demanded some better reasons, so that he might "defend himself". I find it interesting to watch a person's reactions; the ones that seem out of place and over the top are usually faked by scum.
One time, back in 'nam, Sudo was set upon by an entire squadron of charlies. He challenged them all to a game of Pictionary, which he won resoundingly. The charlies were forced to not only surrender the skirmish, but also their world-famous chili recipe, which Sudo sold to Texas for a hefty profit. Sudo is a master of diplomacy.
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Post Post #564 (ISO) » Sun Nov 11, 2007 3:11 pm

Post by Korlash »

How could I address anything when nothing was said?
It's not my job to be right, it's my job to be convincing.

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Post Post #565 (ISO) » Sun Nov 11, 2007 3:36 pm

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Post Post #566 (ISO) » Sun Nov 11, 2007 3:41 pm

Post by Adel »

errata: the above graph is for post 0 through post 563. The label that says "Posts 58-563" is incorrect.
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Post Post #567 (ISO) » Sun Nov 11, 2007 3:45 pm

Post by Korlash »

So jitsu has the most posts and more or less the best ones overall...

I didn't know Mexal had posted so much...

CKD has posted a lot more then I thought... That took me by surprise...

And you guys were really set on lynching Anata when she had only posted 9 times? Are you crazy? that is messed up...

OOC: About how long does it take you to do these graphs? Also do you use some specific program?
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Post Post #568 (ISO) » Sun Nov 11, 2007 3:46 pm

Post by Adel »

Adobe Fireworks.
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Post Post #569 (ISO) » Sun Nov 11, 2007 4:21 pm

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Post Post #570 (ISO) » Sun Nov 11, 2007 4:42 pm

Post by Korlash »

Woohoo third again!!!!

Wait... how is that suppose to help? I mean... I can honestly see no point in knowing how many.. OOOOO...

Length of posts? Correlate the number of posts with number of words shows who posted a lot with little content and a little with lots of content...

Ok...

And did you honestly count every single word? o.O

Even using some tool like Microsoft word or something that had to take a loooooong... time...
It's not my job to be right, it's my job to be convincing.

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Post Post #571 (ISO) » Sun Nov 11, 2007 5:14 pm

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Post Post #572 (ISO) » Sun Nov 11, 2007 5:36 pm

Post by Adel »

FoS: Jerubball

Korlash's most likely scumbuddy
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Post Post #573 (ISO) » Sun Nov 11, 2007 5:44 pm

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FoS: Miztef


There. I think I got all three.
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Post Post #574 (ISO) » Sun Nov 11, 2007 5:46 pm

Post by Adel »

Abstract Actuary and Sudo_Nym are my two runner ups.

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