Battle for Olympus - Game Over!

[AGar]

L-2 if I've counted right ..

Claim time !!

L-2 = claim time?

Since when?

[gandalf5166]

I SMELL SCUM

[ooba]

L-2 if I've counted right ..

Claim time !!

L-2 = claim time?

Since when?

Barely any difference between L-2 and L-1 in a large game on D1 .. Saves time and speeds up things ..

[gandalf5166]

L-2 if I've counted right ..

Claim time !!

L-2 = claim time?

Since when?

Barely any difference between L-2 and L-1 in a large game on D1 .. Saves time and speeds up things ..

Because outing a PR unnecessarily is totally worth those two things......... You have 20 minutes to find somewhere where you've expressed this opinion before as town, or I'm pretty sure we've found a new wagon.

[ooba]

L-2 if I've counted right ..

Claim time !!

L-2 = claim time?

Since when?

Barely any difference between L-2 and L-1 in a large game on D1 .. Saves time and speeds up things ..

Because outing a PR unnecessarily is totally worth those two things......... You have 20 minutes to find somewhere where you've expressed this opinion before as town, or I'm pretty sure we've found a new wagon.

I've always advocated speeding things up when the outcome seems inevitable .. While I don't advocate "Oh you voted me. But thats stupid because I'm <insert role here>" VI claims at L-9, I think sticking blindly to only claim when you're at L-1 is bad ..

You can scan my wiki. You'll find situations where
- I've claimed before L-1 since it looks like I'll be wagoned to it
- I've asked people to claim before L-1

---

The Gandalf-BS links:
- Gandalf has no comments on the first BS wagon except this

Hmmmm...... I like all three leading wagons right now.

- This time when BS wagon is building up again, prefers arguing "Logic sux" to commenting on it
- Newest addition:

"I'm pretty sure we've found a new wagon"

-> "Move from BS please"

- BS pulls out LC for just 1 content post out of 16. Not even a single word about gandalf who has a lion share of scumhunting-free posts discussing surveys, setup and falseclaim-possibilities most of the time? (Not to mention even the last few posts about logic)

[gandalf5166]

Eh. I think she's an okay wagon. I'm not particularly convinced she'll flip scum, but she's going to be lynched eventually.

[gandalf5166]

I'd rather we lynched SD or diddin though.

[gandalf5166]

Also, BS's lynch is not "inevitable". there are competing wagons, which means that not everybody agrees with it.

[ooba]

Also, BS's lynch is not "inevitable". there are competing wagons, which means that not everybody agrees with it.

I didn't say BS lynch was inevitable .. I think L-1 or BS claiming is inevitable ..

And please stop pushing a SK-only-possibility-SD lynch ..

[Charon]

The Official Slap-A-Lannister Vote Count

Baby Spice [9]

- LordChronos, mothrax, Plum, diddin, Axelrod, MagnaofIllusion, Shadow Dancer, ooba, AGar

diddin [6]

- Dekes, Snow_Bunny, Gemini, AurorusVox, gandalf5166, Chronopie

LordChronos [2]

- chesskid3, Iecerint

Shadow Dancer [1]

- quadz08

MagnaofIllusion [1]

- Baby Spice

Not voting [1]

- RangeroftheNorth

With 20 alive, it is 11 to lynch. Deadline is Tuesday, May 3rd, 2011, 9:00PM PST.

quadz08 is Semi-V/LA until 5/2.

[gandalf5166]

Also, BS's lynch is not "inevitable". there are competing wagons, which means that not everybody agrees with it.

I didn't say BS lynch was inevitable .. I think L-1 or BS claiming is inevitable ..

And please stop pushing a SK-only-possibility-SD lynch ..

The fact that he can only be scum if he's the SK doesn't mean he's not scum. What you guys are doing is essentially AtP.

[Iecerint]

The number of possible SK slots are smaller than the number of mafia slots. The chance of correctly identifying an SK is very small.

[Iecerint]

Especially when you're not even sure it exists.

I just reread diddin in iso, and I have a townier read on him now.

[gandalf5166]

The number of possible SK slots are smaller than the number of mafia slots. The chance of correctly identifying an SK is very small.

And any person we wagon has a statistically larger chance of being town than scum. Does that mean we should stop wagonning people? you DO understand what AtP IS, right?

[Iecerint]

Although --

diddin, is there a reason you identified several people as scummy-by-way-of-dekes, but never really pressured dekes himself?

[MagnaofIllusion]

The fact that he can only be scum if he's the SK doesn't mean he's not scum. What you guys are doing is essentially AtP.

No that’s not happening. At all. Do

YOU

know what an Appeal to Probability is? An Appeal to Probability is saying “The odds that the Town Cop scanned a Miller Day 1 and a Godfather Day 2 are so slim it couldn’t have happened!!!” (taken directly from a game situation.?

You are shouting “SD’s reaction means he is a Serial Killer”.

Everyone is effectively saying “No, it means he may be a 3rd party role”

Do you have anything that indicates that a Serial Killer must be in the set-up other than your gut?

If the answer is No then don’t bother banging that drum again. No-one is really going to care until there is more to go on.

[Iecerint]

I dunno. I'm making an appeal to probability (minus the "musts," which would make it an actual fallacy). I would prefer to call it "power of logic," but you can pretend it's a fallacy if you want.

@ gandalf -- The situation you are presenting is mistaken not because of the math, but because it ignores the context of the decision. The context dictates that we should lynch, and should do so to a player likely to be scum.

[ooba]

When I played with BabySpice scum in Stars Aligned III, I thought she was the scummiest player in the universe.

Do recent posts change this or do you still get a not-scum vibe from BS's play?

[Iecerint]

I just read her in iso again.

I suppose there are few less tragic mislynches, and I can't say that I get a town read from her, but I still get a significantly different vibe than I did in SE3.

Could be because:

A) That was open, this is not.
B) Her role is different.
C) Time has passed.
D) Her avatar is different.
E) She is not mafia this time.

So it's not exactly a very reliable tell, BUT I still think the observation itself holds.

[Axelrod]

I'm fine with someone claiming at L-2.

If Baby doesn't want to claim, I think she had best do some persuasive persuading that someone else is a better target and do it soon.

[MagnaofIllusion]

593 is fence-sitting on an epic scale.

"I don't think BabySpice is Town or Scum. I suppose you could lynch her if you want. Here's a mostly bogus list of reasons why I'm backing off my earlier position"

[Iecerint]

1. I am a town fencesitter. You could prove this with science if you wanted to.

2. There is no backing off in that post. I am sticking to my earlier opinion that the BS's are different.

3. Those reasons are not bogus. Those are all reasons that someone's play between games can be different.

[quadz08]

Unvote. Vote: Quadz
- I don't have the post number with me but he doesn't provide any reasoning in the post where he votes SD. The quote is there; Looks like "Have to say something smart while jumping on to the biggest wagon, I'll come back to it" but never did ..
- Pattern of votes & attacks.

I found the post you're referring to. I had something typed after that quote; it said something like "The only person grasping at straws here is you." I distinctly remember feeling like that post was extraordinarily hypocritical and poor reasoning to boot. I do not know where that reasoning went, or why it didn't post with the rest of my post. :/
You'll have to explain what you mean by votes & attacks, and why it's scummy.


I agree with AGar about Mothrax's "they're both scummy could be scum together but also not together" bit. Chainlynching, anybody?


AV's catchup post was decent, though not spectacular. I'm reading null on him now. (NEEDS MOAR POSTING)


BS' posts continue to be terrible. She needs to go away, please.


SD is more or less confirmed again. Woo!


Iece's post 593 bugs the CRAP out of me. "Hi, this makes her scummy, but she could also be NOT SCUMMY. Ya know, I'm really not sure, so I'm just gonna leave all these backdoors open so I can say 'no look I thought this about BS you guys!'" Yeah. Don't like it. At all. You add in his earlier claims about her play being scummy based on meta, and this reads heavily like scum pushing the easy lynch, but still not being on the wagon when she flips town.

FoS: Iece

With SD's more-or-less confirmed status, I'm going to UNVOTE: SD.

VOTE: Baby Spice. VI + scummy = death, plz.

P-Edit: NINJA'D by MoS and Iece.

[Iecerint]

You have a bad memory. I never claimed that BS was playing scummy based on meta. I claimed that BSkum was VERY scummy in SA3, but this BS is not as scummy as that BS was.

In other words, I said the opposite of what you are saying I said.

[quadz08]

......... fffffffffffffffffff. You're right. My apologies.