Mini 1236: Classic Mafia - Game Over!

[hitogoroshi]

Erm...I...suppose? He's confirmed scum to the sk if that's the case, and so there's no point pursuing it. I suppose IF we lynch an sk today, the last scum has to be Dry-Fit (because he claimed the AlaJ shot, and he was clearly lying about it if an sk flips).

I guess keep that axiom in mind: if a serial killer is lynched, Dry-fit is our third scum. I highly doubt that's what we're dealing with, though. It would be pretty chancey that sk happens to shoot Dry-Fits biggest scumspect and giving him a good shot to fake, and I doubt he'd have the balls to claim vig as scum.

[hitogoroshi]

Uh, what happened to that content you were promising david?

Fool: How in blue blazes do you see killer as town?

David: I can appreciate the waiting to drop your analysis but you do have to actually fucking contribute in the meantime instead of doing nothing. It also bothers me that you're waiting on dryfit to respond to hito so you can post your analysis but you didn't have any problem voting dryfit before he responded.

You know what?

I'm rather sick of people thinking that the best way of defending yourself is to insult the people who are suspicious of them.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Killer

I don't care. You want to flail and call gambiting Town, I'm beyond the point of caring. You want to throw around insults, and call us stupid, maybe you should look at what caused you to attract such ire in the first place.

First thing D2 I'll post my reads and the information. No sense overexposing myself at this point to the NK.

Best way to react to a player throwing a tantrum and doing something stupid is to throw a tantrum and do something stupid.

While it was pretty premature I can't say I'm feeling bad about about the killer lynch. I think there's a pretty good chance of a scum flip.

If they're both alive tomorrow I'll probably be looking at Odysseus and DX.

Jase is probably town. And Ody is probably yelling at me from the dead QT. :waves: hi Ody! No, don't worry, I haven't forgotten your thing.

Of course there was similar suspicion of DX from Lunita, which is all kinda weebly-wobbly. But Jase also CORRECTLY explained the DX/Dry-Fit 50/50, and adovcated DX claim his target right away without having the "guilty conscience" step forward. Hard to believe that's from DX's buddy.

And VE...lordy lou if it's VE I'm nominating that fucker for a scummy.

[Dry-fit]

It seems like quite a coincidence that mafia claimed gunsmith when their actually was a gunsmith in the game. Is it possible scum somehow knew there was one?

I shot odysseus last night if that wasn't already obvious.

I too am leaning toward Lunita but I'm gonna od a full reread either today or tomorrow and look at things more fully.

[Jase]

I doubt it. I think they'd need a rolecop and with the backup roleblocker I don't think that's really feasible. Anyways if they did know I'd expect a different fake claim.

[wierdalexv]

Votecount 4.0

[0] Jase [L-3]
[0] hitogoroshi [L-3]
[0] VisceraEyes [L-3]
[0] Lunitawolf [L-3]
[0] Dry-fit [L-3]
Not Voting ~ Jase, hitogoroshi, VisceraEyes, Lunitawolf, Dry-Fit

With 5 alive it takes 3 to lynch.
Deadline is in (expired on 2011-10-18 09:53:31)

[VisceraEyes]

Jase, hitogoroshi, VE, Lunitawolf, Dry-Fit.

Honestly, ISO reveals nothing...making this ridiculously hard. I've ISO'd everyone, and there's nothing that deserves special note in any of it except for Dry-Fit has a few scummy gems...but he's the VIG!

It looks like this is what we're down to.

VOTE: Jase

Here's my thought-process. As far as I'm concerned, Dry is confirmed vig. I'm not considering an SK for several reasons, but chiefly among them the fact that there has only been a couple of double NKs and one of them hit scum at an inopportune time for third party...scum that Dry-fit drew attention to. If he were an SK, he wouldn't have drawn attention to his kill that way. If he suspected he was scum and he was aiming for scum, I very highly doubt he would have A) attacked AlaJ before he killed him and B) claimed the shot.

Therefor, from where I sit, scum can be found among Jase, hitogoroshi and Lunitawolf. Jase didn't look good at first, but his posting evened out and he's come across as pretty evenly town to me. Aside from Lunita's staunch defense of herself, again, nothing really scummy jumps out after a certain point. The difference between those two is that Lunita has town-told several times where Jase has been lurky and reserved most of the game.

And so, by process of elimination, that leaves Jase with the rope today. Dry-fit can aim at any of the rest of us for shits and giggles, he'll either die or be roleblocked in my opinion (of course, that's what I thought last night X(..) so that will leave us with the following options for tomorrow's MYLO showdown if Jase flips town (not bloody likely):

hito, Lunita, Dry-Fit
myself, hito and Lunita
Lunita, Dry-Fit, myself
hito, Dry-Fit, myself

I like our chances in ALL of those scenarios.

[VisceraEyes]

I agree we should take the time to talk things out and not rush, given the possibility that we can't afford another mistake.

I owe proper re-readings on everyone, but if I had to give a prime suspect right now it would be Dry-Fit given I would think he would have been a top NK candidate.

Also, @Hito re: wondering why DryFit wasn't blocked by scum, it's possible that the roleblocker is town.

We should also think about whether we should do a mass claim today given it might be MYLO/LYLO.

If the group is inclined to lynch me, there are two things I first request in case this isn't LYLO/MYLO:

(1) As you read through and evaluate me, please take special note of how those alive are acting with me and when: who wants me dead, who is ignoring me, who is defending me. I would like discussion regarding how those alive (along with known scum, of course) have been interacting because you are going to need more information to figure out who the last scum is.

(2) Allow me time to also present my own reads on people and to have those properly probed and examined, as again you will need more information.

Hito, you look me in the eyes and tell me you think scumLunita posted this.

[hitogoroshi]

I agree we should take the time to talk things out and not rush, given the possibility that we can't afford another mistake.

I owe proper re-readings on everyone, but if I had to give a prime suspect right now it would be Dry-Fit given I would think he would have been a top NK candidate.

Also, @Hito re: wondering why DryFit wasn't blocked by scum, it's possible that the roleblocker is town.

We should also think about whether we should do a mass claim today given it might be MYLO/LYLO.

If the group is inclined to lynch me, there are two things I first request in case this isn't LYLO/MYLO:

(1) As you read through and evaluate me, please take special note of how those alive are acting with me and when: who wants me dead, who is ignoring me, who is defending me. I would like discussion regarding how those alive (along with known scum, of course) have been interacting because you are going to need more information to figure out who the last scum is.

(2) Allow me time to also present my own reads on people and to have those properly probed and examined, as again you will need more information.

Hito, you look me in the eyes and tell me you think scumLunita posted this.

leaving "every option open" is inherently better than starting with your best foot forward and committing if you're a scumbag who is lynch target number 1

plus Lunita apparently thinks the hilariously transparent "dry-fit still alive" thing is worth considering, making her a very prime suspect for a scumbag who thought it was the smart play

I mean, Jase is suspect #2 after Lunita, but look how much he throws David under the fucking bus (Lunita does some as well but not to the same degree)

plus Ody is conf. town so his case is worth pursuing

in fact, yeah, I'm feeling set enough in my thoughts:

Vote: LunitaWolf

[hitogoroshi]

here for the kids who are too lazy to look back

Not only that:

[1] VisceraEyes ~ LunitaWolf [L-6]

Look who isn't even thinking about scumhunting~

COOOOOOP OOOOUUUUUUTT!

Eh, I'm sold.

VOTE: LunitaWolf

is this your random vote?

i still feel like we are in RVS but i'm not sure everyone is on the same page. do you all agree with me or disagree?

Once again AJ obviously was uncomfortable with this post. Its very evident in the way he pushes it.

In post 47, Alabaska J wrote:is this your random vote?i still feel like we are in RVS but i'm not sure everyone is on the same page. do you all agree with me or disagree?No? A random vote at this point would be silly, there is clearly content to discuss.

alright, well then i certainly don't understand your vote. your post implies that the reasons listed are good enough to vote LunitaWolf. i suppose it's not nearly as pressing now that you've abruptly switched gears (which tells me you're lying for some reason and it was a random vote) to VisceraEyes, but i'm still curious about it. care elaborating?

Here he pursues TF again.

Well, we've finally had the time to get our shit together, since we are both kind of busy, so let's do this.

VOTE: VisceraEyes

Let's look at what we have so far:

1. Gets off the Lunitawolf wagon the second it gains any sort of momentum. Could be an attempt to protect his scum buddy.

2. Attempt at a hitogoroshi counter-wagon in a semi-serious tone. Seemed like an attempt subtly turn the vote away from Lunitawolf without looking like active defense of her.

3. He seems pretty pro-Lunitawolf when she's done so very little.

4. Post #74 is just bad. It's one thing to call lurkers scum reads, such as if we had been listed, but people who haven't confirmed likely don't even know that the game has started yet and there is literally nothing there to constitute a scum read. The post was a cop out, plain and simple.

5. He seems to be saying that it's not possible to catch scum early on. But both Viscera's and Lunitawolf's actions so far don't come off as townie and regardless of whether or not it is likely, they are still the scummiest two players right now and there is no reason not to vote them for being suspicious. To suggest otherwise is just ludicrous.

6. What could possibly justify his most recent vote on Draken. Why vote for literally the only person who won't make a response beccause he doesn't even know the game has started? You can't even claim wanting to promote activity because there are plenty of players who are confirmed who haven't posted. Us, for instance. It just reads as super opportunistic.

For the record, we've also got a scum read on Lunitawolf for the following reasons:

1.Post #33 is a shit post. I don't really approve of that type of nonchalant crap when things are becoming serious. The post does nothing to further the game or clarify her stance on Viscera. And if it is a serious reason for a town read, it's a terrible reason.

2.Post #40 is bad too. Already covered why it's a bad post.

3. Don't really agree with the CES vote, but that's because he leans town to us.

These are the general pillars of our case on those two.

i really don't like this post. right off the bat, you are presuming lunitawolf and viscera might be scumbuddies? this early on? he didn't want to accidentally lynch someone. next, you even admit it was semi-serious. and number 5 has warning bells all over it. seems like you are trying to lead the town with some strong words to cover for lack of substance. and who is "we"?

Second person he attacks conveniently is attacking Lunita.

That wasnt my case on you at all actually. Your next post needs to have a stance on the dryfit wagon.

fair enough. i don't like his vote on VE either, the "fake scumhunting" argument is always a poor one; who are you to say that he isn't scumhunting? he seems to be contributing his point of view on the subject, just as you are.

and as to your point against me, i was genuinely unsure of what the vote was and if it was a real vote i felt the reason was not strong enough; however if it was a random vote i wouldn't bother addressing it

So you got any scum reads?

it's early…dry-fit for reasons i said earlier, the fool for his initial vote that i challenged him on perhaps. don't have a lot of scum reads yet in this game

Holds onto the fool FoS, something he could have easily dropped (plus the juicy killer wagon was starting up)


So yea, Idk, TF looks town here and Lunita looks scum.

[Jase]

VE: What do you make of AJ and DX behavior towards lunita?

[VisceraEyes]

Jase: This is a trick question. Neither of them HAD interactions with Lunita.

/flex

[Jase]

Ok well AJ didn't DIRECTLY. At least not much. Still though what do you think about it?

[VisceraEyes]

DX didn't either, I'm wondering what you're really asking. Do I find the fact that combined they mentioned Lunita all of once suspicious? I mean it's odd...but look at their playstyles. AJ seemed to point out suspicious behavior in others, and Lunita hadn't really done anything suspicious. DX replaced into the game, and went directly into lurker-mode until d2...when he fake-claimed a ridiculous PR. Ultimately, given what they appeared to be trying to accomplish, it's not super surprising that they never mentioned Lunita.

It could be some kind of weird hyper-distancing thing if you're trying to find something suspicious about it...but neither one of them mention you either, for the very same reasons.

[Jase]

The difference between AJ and DX though is while they didn't directly interact with lunita AJ spent a good amount of time attacking her attackers. So it's not really about distancing for him. As for DX the only two people he never mentions are me and lunita. So while I'm connected to DX in the same way she is she is the only one with such a significant connection to AJ.

[Lunitawolf]

The difference between AJ and DX though is while they didn't directly interact with lunita AJ spent a good amount of time attacking her attackers. So it's not really about distancing for him. As for DX the only two people he never mentions are me and lunita. So while I'm connected to DX in the same way she is she is the only one with such a significant connection to AJ.

As I've already mentioned, the argument that I'm scum on the basis of one of my attackers being attacked by confirmed scum is *super weak* given I've had 9/13 people vote/voice suspicion of me.

You admit that the super weak argument is the only difference between AJ/DX interaction with me and AJ/DX interaction with you. In other words, there is no difference so that is not a useful tell in figuring out who the remaining scum is.

I think that VE is town, so my two suspects that I need to analyze further today are Hito and Jase. I will get this up over lunch.

@Mod & all: I will be V/LA until Monday because heading out later this afternoon on a last-minute weekend getaway.

[Lunitawolf]

Well, I still think Hito is town after reading him in ISO. He's showing active scumhunting, yet still appropriate caution. So, by PoE that leaves Jase.
(I still wonder about whether DryFit is a SK instead, but given the group consensus seems to be that he wouldn't be, I'm excluding him from my lynchable candidates.)

In addition, consider:

* Day 1: Jase shows a willingness to jump on almost any bandwagon, but doesn't actively scumhunt himself: Lunita, Killer, VE, Ryuu

* When he lists his reads, he says:

Alabaska J: Low content low content low content. Parroting the dry-fit case, and not pursuing the fool even though he's listed him as a scum read. Mild scum read.

David: Not enough content for a good solid read yet.

Gives AJ a "mild scum" read ... which, I've read is something scum will often do to their partners to "soft bus"/set up the claim later if partner is revealed that, "Look! I've always voiced my suspicions!"

* Here, Jase looks for a way to save his partner from the bad fakeclaim:

Would it be feasible to have a doc, cop, and miller gunsmith in the game if we had a serial killer instead of a vig? Otherwise Davids claim is hard to beleive.

* Jase is willing to vote to lynch based off of lurky play, even though that alone is not a strong case, but it's "good enough" for him.

Sorry for the delay.

Lunita: The foolscum case is based around lurky play and a pretty small group of believable scumbags. Which at this point is good enough for me so...

Vote: Fool

That's L-1 I think.

So:
VOTE: Jase

[Jase]

It isn't weak. It'd be weak if he had pursued anyone who wasn't attacking you, or if he'd attacked them for other reasons, but most of his posts were attacking people specifically for attacking you or apologizing for lurking.

* Day 1: Jase shows a willingness to jump on almost any bandwagon, but doesn't actively scumhunt himself: Lunita, Killer, VE, Ryuu

I'll have to go iso myself but I'm pretty sure the only of these bandwagons that I shamelessly jumped on was yours.

Gives AJ a "mild scum" read ... which, I've read is something scum will often do to their partners to "soft bus"/set up the claim later if partner is revealed that, "Look! I've always voiced my suspicions!"

*shrug* It's hard to get a strong scumread on lurkers. Also you quoted my DX read to but you didn't mention it at all. Did you have something to say about that?

* Jase is willing to vote to lynch based off of lurky play, even though that alone is not a strong case, but it's "good enough" for him.

Like I said, it's based around a small pool of potential scum. He was on the chopping block for the same reason we are now. Not so much that he's the most scummy, but more that he's the least townie of a small group that almost certainly contains scum. So yesterday it was you me or him, I thought it was him, and today it's you or me, and I know it isn't me.

Not that it really matters I think. I'm just fighting to have survived the game, but if I'm lynched all that needs to happen for the town to win is for our vig not to shoot the wrong person, or even not to shoot at all, and unless scum has pulled some truly masterful shit lunita will flip scum. Town wins. Party party party.

[Jase]

Mkay so I iso'd myself.

Of the four you listed.

Lunita: I jumped on early for the sake of quickwagoning out of RVS, and even though I wasn't really there for suspicion I did still contribute a little bit. Not much but again I wasn't particularly suspicious. (In my iso 6)

Killer: I started the killer bandwagon thank you very much.

VE: You can't honestly be saying that I didn't at least attempt to contribute to his wagon. I spent a hell of a lot of time pressuring him when I was suspicious of him.

Ryuu: You'll have to quote/point me to the post(s) where I join the Ryuu wagon. I must have missed it?

[Dry-fit]

Life has been hectic the last coupsle days but I will get to my reread FIRST THING WHEN I WAKE UP.

[Dry-fit]

Alright guys did my reread.

VE: His play itself has been weird but the bottom line is that I can't imagine VE and DX being buddies after what happened D2. Town.

Hito: Really really town. Only thing that bugs me was his whole plan with the "gunsmith" D2 and how it all panned out. But I'm not interested in lylynching him today.

So that leaves Jase and Lunita. Tbh there's mostly not much to choose between them but I noticed this.

Mkay this is pretty cut and dry for me.

Hito is clearly town. VE is pretty town as well. Dryfit was pretty much confirmed with the DX flip. I'm cleared to myself. Lunita is the final scum, and if she is somehow town then I'd guess it's dry-fit and he didn't pull the thing I'd have thought scum would if he had been scum with DX.

Pretty confident about lunita though. No reason to rush however and I'll do a bit of re-reading of dryfit VE and Lunita just to make sure. I'll be paying special attention to Lunitas connections to our other scumbags.

Assuming there's only one scum left that means scum needs two mislynches to win. Yet in this post Jase basically admits everyone but himself and Lunita are confirmed or obvtown. That means if Jase is scum he is creating a situation where he cannot get two mislynches. Let's compare with Lunita:

Argh.... just realized my prior post on my phone didn't go through ... I think Hito's second post must have popped up after I hit submit.

Anyway, quick recap of it:

@Hito, what is your town case on VE?

@Everyone if it's so obvious that Dry-Fit is Vig/SK then why hasn't scum killed him yet? There were two shots last night, so clearly mafia's pick went through.

I'm not scum, so I'm widening my search pool and will be re-reading on everyone, as Jase is too narrow a pool for me.

I got duped from a take-charge guy as can be seen in my completed game, so I need to take time to re-evaluate Hito too even though I've had a town read on him all game.

In this post Lunita wants to keep EVErYONE an option. This fits more with someone who needs to get two mislynched.

I want to lynch Lunita but I want everyone to have time to give their thoughts on the cases presented. Also I guess there's no point at all to a mass claim?

[hitogoroshi]

Dry-Fit: Yeah, I agree Jase starting off by eliminating multiple targets as possibilities is a big point in his favor.

[Lunitawolf]

Of course I re-evaluated everyone... and all of you should be going back and re-evaluating your reads as well! No one has actually been mechanically confirmed, and we can't afford to get lazy at this stage. Furthermore, I haven't left it open, but have already posted the results of my updated analysis.

I specifically looked at everyone - instead of blindly voting for Jase just because he's the only presented alternative lynch to me - because:

(1) There is a current consensus that I am one of the scummier people to look at and possibly lynch. Yet I *know* people are wrong about me, so it begs the question of whether people are wrong about Jase as well. And, if they are, I need to try to determine who is trying to lead a mislynch on two townies. - As it turns out, I do still think Hito & VE are town. Which leaves Jase, and DryFit is a ???

(2) Although of course I want to survive, that goal is secondary to my wincon. First and foremost I want town to win. And to do that, I have to focus my efforts on looking at everyone and putting forth my thoughts and questions, so that if I am lynched, I've hopefully left some valuable insight behind that may help the remaining town figure out the truth. It doesn't help town to just say, "Lynch the other guy! Because he's the other guy!"

Furthermore, all of *you* should be going back and verifying your reads on the others because unless you lynch Jase, and he is scum, you'll have to do so tomorrow. If I'm lynched, for example, I doubt that Jase will be NK - either because he is scum or because is prime mislynch bait. You'll have to determine which and won't have the luxury of getting it wrong again.

ALSO,

@Dry-Fit Have you thought about whether you are going to kill anyone tonight?

@Hito/VE - What do you think of the idea of a mass claim today? Jase and I would go first as we're under more suspicion, followed by you two. The reason is, I think that today may be the last day to determine whether we have a Vig or a SK. May also help us determine who the last scum is.

Worst Case Scenarios:

Mislynch today
1 scum - 3 town (if vig)
or
1 scum - 2 town - 1 SK

Under the VIG scenario,
- If vig shoots and gets scum, we win.
- If vig shoots and gets town, we lose (unless vig and scum target the same person)
- If vig does not shoot, it's lylo tomorrow.

BUT, under the SK scenario,
- If SK kills scum, and scum kills town, SK wins / we lose.
- If SK and scum kill different townies, we lose. SK/scum draw.
- If SK and scum kill same town target, we lose. Kingmaker situation.

[hitogoroshi]

Sure whatever, Lunita claim first

[Lunitawolf]

Okay. Vanilla Townie.

Jase?

[Jase]

I'm a VT.