Mini 1426 - Hell's Bottom

[Elyse]

Reading through HD's ISO, it looks like he's your partner, RBD. He had you and Desperado as town the entire time. When I was picking who to use my shot on, he only said YOLO and jeromus.

Flay was also a top scumread of his.

[Rainbowdash]

Reading through HD's ISO, it looks like he's your partner, RBD. He had you and Desperado as town the entire time. When I was picking who to use my shot on, he only said YOLO and jeromus.

Flay was also a top scumread of his.

You arent really saying anything about why im scum though apart from voting already, which I already explained. It should be obvious I know what im talking about when it comes to PRs and VTs, thats what I do in these games. Everpony is good at something and one of the things im best at is quickly hunting down who is a PR and who is not. Given how everypony played, I would have known instantly as scum that qwints had role info on Desp so there is no way I would have tried to antagonize him when it would have been an easy bus.

Also im not sure how you are calling HD scum with me when I was pushing hard for a lynch of Bomb and pretty much have been calling HD scum untill late yesterday. Also the fact that apparently if calling somepony town makes them a scumbuddy, im town because I was basically the ONLY one calling Desp scum.

Or you can add in the fact that if I was scum BY (VT and lynchable) wouldnt have died (BB/qwints/Flay PR pool again). And that you would have since you were saying "the power players are scum", last PR would probably be investigative so taking that risk is fine if you arent sure. And I would have lynched Desp into the ground since I had been calling him scum and qwints fit the setup perfectly.

So lets here a reason then, or if you are going to stick to "the vote" explain why I would vote HD or YOLO when there apparently are three scum and they arent scum together.

[Human Destroyer]

Reading through HD's ISO, it looks like he's your partner, RBD. He had you and Desperado as town the entire time. When I was picking who to use my shot on, he only said YOLO and jeromus.

You should probably check my ISO as to why I asked you to shoot those two specifically

[Mr. Flay]

... Really? Two votes in the first two posts of the day, guys? More shitty theoryposting from RBD to justify it?? Come on, spell out your 'case'. Oh right, you don't have one, because all you've done all game is hunt power roles and talk theory.

I can't decide which of you is town and which is scum, but right now I'm leaning HDscum for that second vote. RBD has just been firing into the crowd all game, which strikes me as overconfidence.

[Rainbowdash]

I can't decide which of you is town and which is scum

, but right now I'm leaning HDscum for that second vote. RBD has just been firing into the crowd all game, which strikes me as overconfidence.

So....

What?

So its HD-YOLO (or are you pushing one scum). Thats what you have for us? Really?

Also I will get some case up, time should be pretty plentiful starting Thursday. For now though I want to dictate what happens and establish a baseline of what needs to get done.

[Mr. Flay]

Sorry, I'm up to my neck in Scummies images right now. I just didn't expect to come in to an almost-quicklynch.

You're certainly bright enough to be scum playing this way, but I haven't read any of your meta. Also no way town drops the second vote in probable LYLO like that, so it might still be both of you. Want to hear from YOLO as well before we go anywhere... he hasn't posted since dawn, but was around a lot Sunday before deadline.

Only clear for me is Elyse, since she could have hammered and didn't.

[Rainbowdash]

You're certainly bright enough to be scum playing this way, but I haven't read any of your meta.

Meh. My scum game is actually really different if you know what to look for. There are a couple of points though over last couple days where its "why would I do that" as scum. Mostly the whole looking for the last PR thing but if its going to take the game finishing to prove that im one of the better VT hunters around thats what its going to take if anypony wont meta that.

Only clear for me is Elyse, since she could have hammered and didn't.

Or it could be them being the cop cleared day vig. That too.

[10506670]

Deadline: 4/28/2013, 10:00pm PST

Votecount 4.1.0

Mr. Flay

(1): Rainbowdash
Not voting (4): YOLO, Elyse, Human Destroyer, Mr. Flay

With 5 alive it is 3 to lynch.

[YOLO]

Whoa, two votes right out of the gate. I don't like quickvotes in LYLO, especially not when they're without reasoning. Neither Rainbowdash nor Human Destroyer has made any kind of case on the living players, so I don't know why they would throw their votes out there. This 'X and Y can't be scum together' is neither helpful nor insightful.

I still think Human Destroyer is most likely to be scum. I've said it before but I'll say it again, this dude has done nothing but joined townwagon after townwagon without giving any reasoning of his own. He has been going with the flow all game and I'm completely appalled as to why he doesn't receive more scrutiny for his constant following behaviour. Even during LYLO he straight away hops on a wagon.

Mr. Flay is still a shitty poster. I called him out early game for playing weakly despite being a 2004 player, and he responded by saying his strength was in the late game. Where is that strength? All I'm seeing is 'Bad connection', 'Busy with scummies images' and 'I'm waiting for other players to say something first'. Flay still has done jack this game. I could even go as far to say he is active lurking.

Rainbowdash's constant theorizing isn't pro-town in my book, but at least she's putting some content out there unlike HD and Flay. The L-1 vote is really bothersome though, and I don't like this in particular:

As you said, im not dumb. There is no way im not going to be voting Flay outside of essentially a scumclaim from YOLO/HD. Only way Flay is town is if there are two scum or if one of YOLO-HD is a traitor. Why go through the motions if I know who im going to be voting? That just wastes all of our time.

I'm all for not wasting time, but let's compare it to this post from yesterday:

HD, you do realize that this just allows desp to self-hammer and prevent any more discussion of tells. I'm at a complete loss for why you wanted to prevent a quick lynch to mass claim but are pushing it now.

Probably because there is no point unless you want to say stuff at this point. Kill is probably already decided for scum.

unvote

Go for it.

So yesterday you were sure Desperado was scum and voted him, but after Quints called you back you unvoted and then didn't vote Desperado again for the rest of the day. Today you vote Flay, confirmed-town Elyse calls you back, but now you suddenly decide you're not going to waste time? Talk about inconsistent behaviour.

At this point I could see myself voting for any of the three, so I'd definitely be interested in the thought processes of others. Please provide some content on which I can judge you. Bonus points for deeper reasoning than 'X and Y can't be scum together'.

[Human Destroyer]

^scum keeping options open

[Mr. Flay]

Only clear for me is Elyse, since she could have hammered and didn't.

Or it could be them being the cop cleared day vig. That too.

I trust in-thread actions over role results.

More tomorrow. Today is swamped.

[Human Destroyer]

You get one more post, Flay, then I'm voting you based on my PoE skillz

Then scum-YOLO dies in LYLO

Then life is good

shabambam

[Elyse]

RBD, I can't trust your self WIFOM. I still think you're scum.

YOLO, Flay, I'm confident that the scumteam is RBD/HD. How do you guys feel?

[Rainbowdash]

RBD, I can't trust your self WIFOM. I still think you're scum.

As wierd as it sounds - im not stupid scum which should be a top reason im town here. BY kill was

bad

and looks like a PR shot which I would never have taken. Heck I have intentionally ignored PRs in the past as scum because they were not the biggest threat in the game.

Really give me something though, then look at how Flay and YOLO are playing. As far as I can tell your vote on me is because I am confident enough that HD and YOLO arent scum together that I am voting already.

Flay despite me voting him seems to be floating interest in HD instead of voting back. YOLO is taking absolutely zero stances about anything.

Also fun fact - if there are actually only two scum in the game its probably HD or YOLO. Flay would be town there. From a review standpoint though, something is still very off since even setup as stands assuming three goons I would think as somewhat scum sided - still almost would expect a traitor instead or two scum with daytalk (or gunsmith, etc) or something to that extent. Funniest part is I

really

feel like there is just one scum left. If it wasnt for HD-YOLO making so little sense, I would be voting YOLO here I think.

Go look at past scum games, im anything but derpy. Ive lost two games, one was due to listening to my partner against all my instincts followed by them (essentially) playing right into a forced loss and the other was a nightless game where town got a really lucky play in and there was to shot from there.

Just look at my last game, has me scum and HD town in it. Heck just look at the scum QT. I figured out the setup pretty fast, picked out a PR by the end of the first day, caught the breadcrumbing role fast while keeping heat away from my partner and myself easily. I know its wierd to hear but im not dumb scum, never would have let the BY NK happen as scum. Ever.

If you dont like the WIFOM, give me something to defend against. If you want to call me scum for a fast vote - explain to me how HD and YOLO are scum together despite how HD entered the game and drew the YOLO reaction as he did.

Or for that matter how you are kinda using the HD-Flay interactions of HD not wanting Flay vigged as reason as to why im scum with HD (or whatever you were going for there).

Lets make this very easy, I know Elyse is going to call me scum or something for it but I will force things as clear as possible since even if this doesnt work we are going to lose anyways.

@YOLO

- Vote for me. In your next post.

[YOLO]

Great content guys. HD posting nothing, RBD posting a huge load of more self WIFOM, Flay posting literally nothing.

@ Elyse
I'm pretty sure HD is scum. If I were to assume HD is scum, a combination with RBD makes more sense than a combination with Flay since HD and RBD have been supporting each other for a while now. Case in point being post 617 where HD uses RBD's WIFOM to defend RBD. Today's quickvotes also hint at a connection between the two.
I want to see Flay make a post that's not 'I'm busy' before I decide on anything, though. This is probably LYLO after all, something 'I'm not stupid' Rainbowdash doesn't seem to understand.

[Human Destroyer]

Great content guys. HD posting nothing, RBD posting a huge load of more self WIFOM, Flay posting literally nothing.

@ Elyse
I'm pretty sure HD is scum. If I were to assume HD is scum, a combination with RBD makes more sense than a combination with Flay since HD and RBD have been supporting each other for a while now. Case in point being post 617 where HD uses RBD's WIFOM to defend RBD. Today's quickvotes also hint at a connection between the two.
I want to see Flay make a post that's not 'I'm busy' before I decide on anything, though. This is probably LYLO after all, something 'I'm not stupid' Rainbowdash doesn't seem to understand.

You forgot a part

"YOLO keeping his options open and fencing scummily, giving the illusion of content that isn't really there"

[Human Destroyer]

Yes

I'm obviously fine with him being put at L-1

If I wasn't, I wouldn't have done it

Why are you so jumpy about it? What are you afraid of?

What a complete non-answer.

I'm not jumpy, and I'm not afraid of anything, other than you latching on to a clearly dubious wagon that I've already debunked without offering a single thought of your own. Dash, Qwints, and HD--there's your scum team. Here, I'll show you:

Unvote: Human Destroyer
Vote: KBW

Hey guys, let's talk about this post.

Cookies to the first person that realizes how stupid this is if the team is Desp/HD/RBD!

[Mr. Flay]

Desperado analysis first, since he's the known quantity:

• Day One, he not-random votes
  Flay
  , and clears RBD/
  Yoshi
  /
  Bub
  in his second post. He goes after
  Elyse
  , but half-heartedly, and clears
  KBW
  from even being a candidate for lynch. He spends a great deal of time yelling at
  jeromus
  w/o voting him. Mostly he has a hard-on for voting me, even going so far as to call me a Village Idiot for not following the RVSheep.
  
• UNTIL... someone gives him a 'townread' on me, and three guesses who gave him that excuse to flip to
  jeromus
  , the first D1 forced claim? 172 gives the answer of
  RBD
  , for those following along at home. Hint: It's the same person who first voted jeromus, then unvoted, then revoted to be 4th, providing momentum, then later thought they were hammering him,
  for information
  .
  
• Interestingly, he doesn't find HD scummy for lacking contributions after replacing Bomb, but tells him "Get your shit together and start playing or just replace right out".
  Coaching
  much??
  
• After the VT claim from jeromus, he jumps ship to the
  ArcAngel
  lynch, which accelerates to completion in a day and a half. Lynchlist: Rainbowdash, YOLO,
  qwints
  ,
  Keybladewielder
  ,
  Desperado
  ,
  Elyse
  , Human Destroyer
  
• Day Two he goes back to
  Flay
  /
  jeromus
  as his favored wagons. He votes jeromus until
  Elyse
  shoots him, then switches to
  Flay
  briefly, then bounces on HD and finishing up on the second mislynch (
  KBW
  ), while actually calling a scumteam of RBD/
  qwints
  /HD.
  
• He does have a pretty swift reaction to Elyse's paranoia about a RBD/
  Desperado
  /
  Bub
  scumteam.
  
• Day Three: Not knowing he's been copped, he comes out the gate going after...
  qwints
  ?? qwints's copclaim is pretty clear in retrospect, but Desp doubles down without any indication that he's busted. Mafia Rolecop on the team? If his slip about 3 scum is accurate then town was in LyLo at that point, and he may have been going for a quick finish hoping his team would vote before the claim. After the Cop claim, Desperado pretty much shuts down, so we're done here.

More later, but my lunch break is over already. I'm not ready to vote, but combined with the opening votes today, you can see where I'm leaning. Desperado went after town consistently for mislynches, and doesn't seem the bussing type, which goes along with the suboptimal NKs. The only one that really bothers me is the Bub kill after Elyse names her paranoia-scum.

Tonight I'll look at HD and YOLO.

[Human Destroyer]

Interestingly, he doesn't find HD scummy for lacking contributions after replacing Bomb, but tells him "Get your shit together and start playing or just replace right out". Coaching much??

>implying a newb would coach

lmao

And...lack of contribution isn't scummy if you don't hide it with shitty posts that look like content.

*cough*YOLO*cough*

I suppose it doesn't matter, you're scum anyway

You have till you're done with those analyses of yours till I vote you.

[Rainbowdash]

The only one that really bothers me is the Bub kill after Elyse names her paranoia-scum.

How is

THIS

the part that bugs you?

That was not the most unpredictable kill by a long shot for half smart scum.

Anyways. Maybe this will make YOLO vote me.

Vote YOLO

I wasnt kidding about wanting him to vote me. Right now.

Basically this is where im at:

First im going to assume that even if there is a traitor that HD and YOLO are not both scum. If they are we probably have lost this already and its simply a matter of time.

From there that leaves two scenarios.

The first is one scum left and they probably had daytalk or some investigative role. If there is one scum left, Flay is probably town given that more than not I think he is scum by who I cant see as scum. Process of Elim is a bitch but it can work wonders at times. If there is one scum im more or less split on which of HD-YOLO it is but think its more likely YOLO. The way he is really backing out of conflict when I think town would be pushing things here is a big one that is more of a "survive" mentality, while scum with Flay would probably be pushing towards me as that would be a win given Elyse is just locked in.

Now if there are two scum, its going to be Flay and somepony. Again I lean YOLO by a bit over HD so here I am again. Either way no matter what the situation is, im looking at YOLO as scum. The question is just if its WITH somepony or if its solo at this point. Again traitor is an option but im going to discount unless proven otherwise at this point in time.

Given all of that, its probably the better vote as YOLO today and not Flay, simply because if there is just one scum we actually can win with a YOLO lynch while im pretty sure the other way around it would send it to a F3 that while I like, im not as happy with.

So lets do this.

[Rainbowdash]

The only one that really bothers me is the Bub kill after Elyse names her paranoia-scum.

How is

THIS

the part that bugs you?

That was not the most unpredictable kill by a long shot for half smart scum.

Anyways. Maybe this will make YOLO vote me.

Vote YOLO

I wasnt kidding about wanting him to vote me. Right now.

Basically this is where im at:

First im going to assume that even if there is a traitor that HD and YOLO are not both scum. If they are we probably have lost this already and its simply a matter of time.

From there that leaves two scenarios.

The first is one scum left and they probably had daytalk or some investigative role. If there is one scum left, Flay is probably town given that more than not I think he is scum by who I cant see as scum. Process of Elim is a bitch but it can work wonders at times. If there is one scum im more or less split on which of HD-YOLO it is but think its more likely YOLO. The way he is really backing out of conflict when I think town would be pushing things here is a big one that is more of a "survive" mentality, while scum with Flay would probably be pushing towards me as that would be a win given Elyse is just locked in.

Now if there are two scum, its going to be Flay and somepony. Again I lean YOLO by a bit over HD so here I am again. Either way no matter what the situation is, im looking at YOLO as scum. The question is just if its WITH somepony or if its solo at this point. Again traitor is an option but im going to discount unless proven otherwise at this point in time.

Given all of that, its probably the better vote as YOLO today and not Flay, simply because if there is just one scum we actually can win with a YOLO lynch while im pretty sure the other way around it would send it to a F3 that while I like, im not as happy with.

So lets do this.

[Rainbowdash]

The only one that really bothers me is the Bub kill after Elyse names her paranoia-scum.

How is

THIS

the part that bugs you?

That was not the most unpredictable kill by a long shot for half smart scum.

Anyways. Maybe this will make YOLO vote me.

Vote YOLO

I wasnt kidding about wanting him to vote me. Right now.

Basically this is where im at:

First im going to assume that even if there is a traitor that HD and YOLO are not both scum. If they are we probably have lost this already and its simply a matter of time.

From there that leaves two scenarios.

The first is one scum left and they probably had daytalk or some investigative role. If there is one scum left, Flay is probably town given that more than not I think he is scum by who I cant see as scum. Process of Elim is a bitch but it can work wonders at times. If there is one scum im more or less split on which of HD-YOLO it is but think its more likely YOLO. The way he is really backing out of conflict when I think town would be pushing things here is a big one that is more of a "survive" mentality, while scum with Flay would probably be pushing towards me as that would be a win given Elyse is just locked in.

Now if there are two scum, its going to be Flay and somepony. Again I lean YOLO by a bit over HD so here I am again. Either way no matter what the situation is, im looking at YOLO as scum. The question is just if its WITH somepony or if its solo at this point. Again traitor is an option but im going to discount unless proven otherwise at this point in time.

Given all of that, its probably the better vote as YOLO today and not Flay, simply because if there is just one scum we actually can win with a YOLO lynch while im pretty sure the other way around it would send it to a F3 that while I like, im not as happy with.

So lets do this.

[Elyse]

Desperado always fake hypothesized a three man scum team. If you're town and you're asking people to vote you, we're probably going to lose.

And RBD, I know you're not stupid, but those kills aren't as dumb as you're making them out to be. They're mostly WTF kills, which make NK analysis harder.

[Rainbowdash]

Desperado always fake hypothesized a three man scum team. If you're town and you're asking people to vote you, we're probably going to lose.

Well im basically betting against a HD-Flay team with this move. Realistically even if its that and we lynch Flay today I probably would vote YOLO tomorrow.

And RBD, I know you're not stupid, but those kills aren't as dumb as you're making them out to be. They're mostly WTF kills, which make NK analysis harder.

There is a time and place for WTF kills but killing a probably VT who is lynchable N1 just makes no sense. Usually WTF kills are only good for 'zero PR reads, no clear kill' situations. Playing NK analysis is just too hard to predict.

[Mr. Flay]

Interestingly, he doesn't find HD scummy for lacking contributions after replacing Bomb, but tells him "Get your shit together and start playing or just replace right out". Coaching much??

>implying a newb would coach

lmao

*shrug* I'm not the one with the hardon for the 'coaching=scum' thing. But it's pretty clear that RBD wasn't actually reading for content, or he'd have called this out too.

How is THIS the part that bugs you?

That was not the most unpredictable kill by a long shot for half smart scum.

That's the part that bugs me

about you being scumbuddies with him

. I didn't say it was a bad kill, it's really the first one that made any sense. Why not kill off the oldbies first? scum in the oldbies needed cover?

Also I'm really not seeing a two-man scum team against this kind of town power, much less a team with one Goon. Why is it you're the ONLY one pushing for a two-man team, that would just conveniently give us an extra "mislynch" to play with??

---

Anyway, on to RBD's next target, YOLO:

• Day One: Likes 'the aggression' of the thread after missing the first two days/three pages of posting. Spends a lot of time in questions mode, but joins the discredit-
  Flay
  -as-VI wagon implicitly.
  
• Finally votes after almost two weeks (2/22-3/5), putting a single vote on HD while
  jeromus
  has been run up to L-1. He had no real reasons though, so basically it just looks like distancing to me. When asked he said "I see no content " from a new replacement. But in the very same post, he jumps ship to
  ArcAngel
  (2nd vote), while still saying he wants to lynch HD. ArcAngel gets lynched in about two more pages.
  
• Day Two: Again misses the first several days of the Day, though he did apparently get replaced in other games for similar lack of activity.
  (he discloses this so don't modkill me for ongoing games, 10506670)
  
  
• He's still talking to HD first out of the gate, but his read has "improved" and he "like
  your town/scum lists and vote agression".
  
• More interestingly, he complains about the NK analysis. Not the weird kill, just the analysis, mostly by RBD and myself. in fact he doesn't mention the
  BY/FT
  kill at all.
  
• After YANP (yet another prod), YOLO reacts to the Dayvig claim from
  Elyse
  by...not reacting?
  
• Jeromus gets shot - YOLO finally launches into something approximating gameplay and analyzes the wagons. He ends up on
  qwints
  , though, who he hasn't really mentioned before. He discards
  Desperado
  and HD as pro-town, and
  KBW
  as a VI. He does use a oddly specific [L-2 jeromus] Vote Count to get that list though, since the [L-1 jeromus] count from Day One would have also included RBD and
  Elyse
  .
  
• He then disappears again until the
  KBW
  quicklynch.
  
• Day Three (LYLO): He comes out the gate fast this time, with a three man scumteam of
  qwints
  /
  Desperado
  /HD, again based mostly on VCA. He says that Desperado should be the first lynch, but even in LyLo he's pushing qwints pretty hard here. Smells like somebody got a Rolecop N2 to me.
  
• After the massclaim finishes, he votes
  Desperado
  , but is 'surprised' no one is going after HD more. WTF? Anyway, the inevitable lynch occurs.
  
• Day Four: Late on the scene again, but still going for HD even though RBD was the first to vote. Basically calls out anybody but
  Elyse
  .