Open 507: The Case of the Hard Boiled Egg (Game Over, 6/13)

[Bertkerberos]

Oh shoot it's LYLO

*facepalm*

Nacho told me not to vote early on in the day..

Unvote

[Amrun]

Uh, I've never fallen behind in this game to have to catch up. My convictions aren't strong enough in this game so I keep feeling like I need to read it again to see if I get magical convictions, but I have read and that hasn't happened. You can bet your ass that it would be easy as fuck to manufacture convictions.

I was obviously never scum (in general) but especially not with the mem/kunkstar slot. Saying that like its a new revelation is lulz.

Trusting the vig is horrible. Vig shot fuzzy who was super obvious town.

[Rural Juror]

I disagree with lynching a hydra today.

[Rural Juror]

If acfan is scum, Bert is most definitely town.

[Lazurial]

It seemed to me that a decent number of people agree it's one of the kerberoses and someone from me/ac/juror. Mind you that may be the pace of the game. (I have a bad habit of trying to play games as they go. I'll fix that some day, hopefully)
I took that perspective and put my opinion in on the matter.

[Amrun]

Lazurial, how many mafia are there?

[ac1983fan]

Hey can someone explain to me why people keep quoting my 646 and saying it is bad posting or not saying anything? it is wagon analysis, I do it in any game because it's much much easier than trying to haze a read in between the lines of other players' posts.

I mean PoE by looking at wagons on mislynches, not POE by town reads.

so who are your townreads?

Amrun, kunkstar7 (mnemomic's replace out seemed townish and kunkstar's first post was pretty solid town - good catch up with no fluff), and maybe a light gut one on kerberos.

[Rural Juror]

Hey can someone explain to me why people keep quoting my 646 and saying it is bad posting or not saying anything? it is wagon analysis, I do it in any game because it's much much easier than trying to haze a read in between the lines of other players' posts.

Please quote other games where you've done it and tell us how accurate it was.

[ac1983fan]

Hey can someone explain to me why people keep quoting my 646 and saying it is bad posting or not saying anything? it is wagon analysis, I do it in any game because it's much much easier than trying to haze a read in between the lines of other players' posts.

Please quote other games where you've done it and tell us how accurate it was.

Hmm well most of them are ongoing since I haven't played actively on this site for years and my playstyle was a bit different (read: illogical and random) back when I started here but let me take a peak...

[ac1983fan]

Alright, so since I only have three recent completed onsite games, and I was scum in two of them (and replaced out in one) I can't find any examples of myself using this particular kind of wagon analysis. However in open 480 I did a different kind of wagon analysis (I was town)

Hmph.

I'm sick and tired of this. VOTE: Nobody Special
Also holy cow I didn't realize I had missed so many pages of stuff. I had an idea in my head I had been melling on:

Votecount #17

Edosurist (3) Zaicon, implosion, ac1983fan
Belisarius (2) Edosurist, Cheery Dog
SafetyDance (2) pieceofpecanpie, Human Destroyer
Human Destroyer(2) SafetyDance, Apozzle

Since we basically had four wagons, I think it's logical to think that at least one of them was on scum (since they were all stalling / also statistically speaking about 1/4th of the players will be scum anyway).

Apozzle, can you give reads on everyone soon?

and I was right, Belisarius and Edosourist both ended up being scum.

[kunkstar7]

can you comment on the interactions between people and why you think I'm scum?

There's no point in trying to build interactions for people we have no idea whether are scum or not till flipped. This is also the flaw with ac1983's wagon analysis which isn't scummy in of itself as it is a valid tactic, just there's no scum so you can't really read too much into it. Anyone pushing ac1983 for posting the analysis alone would seem scummy to me (Rural Juror's most recent "show me the results" post is an example), not so if they are pushing ac1983 for not actually doing any analysis.

As stated and summarily ignored by your slot, your reads don't feel consistent to me. You have little conviction in your reads, especially if you've been in the game since the start I'd expect you to have more of a read on players than the largely null on everyone that you seem to be pushing. Already mentioned Laz, you had a post devoted to a town read on him yet now you are pushing him as scum without so much of an explanation of the switch in view. Your vote on Kerboros seems really insincere as well.

I do see a bit of what was mentioned about Lazurial's most recent posts, they are very much just regurgitating current "popular belief" if I can call it that.
I'm willing to see through either a lynch on Laz or Bertkerboros at the moment.

[Lazurial]

There are 3 scum, no?

[Amrun]

It seemed to me that a decent number of people agree it's one of the kerberoses and someone from me/ac/juror. Mind you that may be the pace of the game. (I have a bad habit of trying to play games as they go. I'll fix that some day, hopefully)
I took that perspective and put my opinion in on the matter.

Explain this post, then.

[Bertkerberos]

can you comment on the interactions between people and why you think I'm scum?

There's no point in trying to build interactions for people we have no idea whether are scum or not till flipped. This is also the flaw with ac1983's wagon analysis which isn't scummy in of itself as it is a valid tactic, just there's no scum so you can't really read too much into it. Anyone pushing ac1983 for posting the analysis alone would seem scummy to me (Rural Juror's most recent "show me the results" post is an example), not so if they are pushing ac1983 for not actually doing any analysis.

As stated and summarily ignored by your slot, your reads don't feel consistent to me. You have little conviction in your reads, especially if you've been in the game since the start I'd expect you to have more of a read on players than the largely null on everyone that you seem to be pushing. Already mentioned Laz, you had a post devoted to a town read on him yet now you are pushing him as scum without so much of an explanation of the switch in view. Your vote on Kerboros seems really insincere as well.

I do see a bit of what was mentioned about Lazurial's most recent posts, they are very much just regurgitating current "popular belief" if I can call it that.
I'm willing to see through either a lynch on Laz or Bertkerboros at the moment.

Look, Nacho convinced me that Laz was town early on.

Right now, I don't think he is town anymore. Especially with the diminished numbers left in the game.

As for conviction, I can't speak for Nacho, but dude, the game is moving at a snail's pace. This game barely is catching our interest.

Kerberos and I go way back so there are going to be hard feelings when I vote for them. Nacho is much more confident in reading Mollie than Mala or Mara, and Mollie isn't here. Don't you get onto us for complaining about people not being here. One of the caveats and pet peeves with regard to having a three-headed hydra is that expectations never are lived up to - you'd understand if you had one.

The Kerberos vote wasn't insincere...I'm dealing with having Nacho possibly remove my votes and relocate them, like what happened with my Rank vote on Day 2 moving to Amrun, who is like super obv town. That and the pressure of LYLO is where I think we need more room to gauge what's going on. Aside from AC, no one has been outright screaming I AM SCUM.

If you're not going to get onto me for "WHY ARE YA VOTING IN LYLO," then I am ready to vote the heck out of someone and bring this game to another level, my man.

[uctriton00]

Current Vote Count:

4 to lynch

ac1983fan:
Amrun:
Bertkerberos:
Kerberos:
kunkstar7:
Lazurial:
Rural Juror:

Unvote: ac1983fan, Amrun, Bertkerberos, Kerberos, kunkstar7, Lazurial, Rural Juror

Day 3 ends on August 9 at 12pm CA time, or in (expired on 2013-08-09 12:00:00)

"Let's start with these alibis."

Encyclopedia approached Chef Ramsey in his office.

"What is it you want, boy?"

"Sir can we have Chef Green's address?"

"What reason do you have?"

"We should check out his alibi, to see if he really wasn't here that morning. I want to investigate his house for clues."

Chef Ramsey thought for a while. "Well, I'm going to trust you know what you're doing." He handed him a slip of paper with an address on it.

"Hey, this place isn't too far, let's go, guys!" The team all left the bakery together, and headed to Chef Green's residence.

[Rural Juror]

Is anyone opposed to lynching acfan?

[Amrun]

I'm not really opposed, but I'm not jazzed.

[kunkstar7]

Is anyone opposed to lynching acfan?

I'd be opposed considering there are two more likely candidates to deal with first.

[Bertkerberos]

Vote: ac1983fan

[Bertkerberos]

Unvote

[Bertkerberos]

I'm pegging Bertkerboros as I feel that account has been too open with their reads,

Too open with our reads as in too flip-floppy? I also don't know what post you're referring to of ours in this post.

In that same vein, Bertkerboros, what happened to your gorgeous town read on Laz? I don't really see any transition that goes from town read to null-leaning scum.

Nacho - Laz townread
Bert - null-leaning scum read.

oh, my, that slot is town. awesome.

Why?

It seemed to me that a decent number of people agree it's one of the kerberoses and someone from me/ac/juror.

A decent number of people also haven't put anything that even vaguely resembles a case down. I think it's stupid to talk about "oh, let's lynch a hydra because most people find one of them scum" in LyLo when it's more a matter of "let's actually step up our game and lynch scum".

Amrun, kunkstar7 (mnemomic's replace out seemed townish and kunkstar's first post was pretty solid town - good catch up with no fluff), and maybe a light gut one on kerberos

So your PoE scumread on Rural Juror being scum is based on these three townreads?

[Amrun]

I quite liked his replace in post. And also I had decided mem was probably town before that even happened.

[ac1983fan]

Amrun, kunkstar7 (mnemomic's replace out seemed townish and kunkstar's first post was pretty solid town - good catch up with no fluff), and maybe a light gut one on kerberos

So your PoE scumread on Rural Juror being scum is based on these three townreads?

Have you even been reading my posts???????????

I mean PoE by looking at wagons on mislynches, not POE by town reads.

[Kerberos]

(and holy shit hydras....Kerberos and bertkerboros have thoroughly annoyed me with their constant "oh I'm missing so and so partners")

You would think if we actually played and talked to each other this wouldn't happen.

Then again I'm just at fault for not being here at ALL Day 1.

~

I have played with Kunk-scum replacement and this doesn't feel like Kunk-scum. I'm happy to call him town.

~

I'm not opposed to an AC lynch. He's been pretty much AWOL, but now that it's clear it's LyLo he's started to post a lot more than usual. It pinged my radar.

[Amrun]

I'm not opposed to an AC lynch. He's been pretty much AWOL, but now that it's clear it's LyLo he's started to post a lot more than usual. It pinged my radar.

uh... why would that be more likely scum behavior?