Mini 436 - Game over - Mafia wins with no casualties!

[vollkan]

Well I hope you can see how I find it slightly odd that you build a case against one player for a week and yet don't vote them, but your analysis of one of my posts warrants an immediate vote.

You seem to be ignoring everything I have said to the ends of discrediting my vote against you.

As I just said, the "case" I built I against Miztef was little more than a few meagre actions which scarcely warrant suspicion yet alone a vote. The fact that you clearly accept them as a case illustrates precisely my point, that your arguments against Miz are conflated.

For you to say that I base my vote on a single post by you is outrightly false, and I think you know that. I have continually reaffirmed all the way through that I had suspicion of you. The particular post I referenced in my voting post merely cemented everything else that had been raised, either by me or by others, for some time.

Votecount:
Miztef 3 (VanDamien, DeathSauce, ryan)
DeathSauce 3 (Miztef, Paradoxombie, vollkan)

Not voting 3: TopHat, Trustgossip, StallingChamp

With 9 alive it takes 5 votes to lynch. At deadline, it's 3 to lynch, or the person with the most votes.

[VanDamien]

My last post coudn't have been more wrong. Wow. Were people just waiting until I went away to start posting? Lotsa reading, but I will try and sum up.

First, it continues to irk me that people are still throwing around that we're in a possible LYLO situation. Unless you believe that there is a four person mafia group, that simply can not be true. Even if the split is 5:3:1 right now, and we mislynch, it only is a lose if the potential SK NK's town - and he/she better hit scum for any chance of winning. I see it more likely that there's a vig based on who is dead, but regardless - we're not in LYLO.

That said, the timing of the ploy continues to rub me the wrong way. If the stated purpose was to generate more discussion in this game, which obviously it has, it seems to me that waiting for are replacements (and you two, come on in!), to get the full reactions from all eight other people would have been more productive. We had slowed to a crawl while waiting for them, not because of any lack of interest of those who are still around.

I can understand doing things just for the sake of reaction. Obviously, that's something I have done already here with my flat statements of who was town and scum earlier in the game. But being underhanded and sneaky about it comes across pretty damn scummy to me. For now, though,

Unvote

, but I still have my eye on you, Miztef.

I'm divided on DeathSauce's reaction. I'm trying to read his posts, thinking how I would react, and compare whther his reactions seem more in line with mine from a townie perspective, or if they come across scummy. And to be honest, for the most part, it seems fairly in line with how I would feel if the target of such a thing. For the most part. But overall, it has a color of desperation, and begins to reach for straws here lately.

[ryan]

VD: Just so I can make sure I followed your last post (cause you jumped from Miztef to DeathSauce and back) You unvoted but are still keeping your eyes on Miztef, does that mean you find DeathSauce to be worthy of your vote, OR are you looking at somebody else? (not mentioned)

[ryan]

Newbies? Have you got any content to add?

[Sweenytodd]

I'm sorry, I am having difficulties posting (technical difficulties, not motivational...)in this thread, expect a content post tomorrow. The mod can confirm this, I PM'd him that I was having trouble.

[Sir Tornado]

I finally managed to read everything in this seemingly crazy game! Currently making notes on each player. Expect something soon.

[ryan]

VD: Please answer my question in 702

[VanDamien]

Okay

Vote:Ryan

[ryan]

Okay

Vote:Ryan

Thanks for replying with some content VD. I just asked a simple question of you because I wanted to make sure I understood your post.

[TrustGossip]

I don't know why, but this game is extremely stressful for me to read. In the interests of not wanting to appear to be a giant ass and contradicting my earlier bemoanment at lack of replacements though, I'm going to stick this out. Will follow with a post that contains some game-relevant information.

This game is too dense at this point for me to write my usual semi-long posts, so my re-read conclusions might seem a bit lax.

[ryan]

LOL, too dense as in too much information or too much conflicting info?

[TrustGossip]

LOL, too dense as in too much information or too much conflicting info?

I believe they both induce migraines, so... both.

Will try to scrap something together, but I just did a reread of another game and am a little mentally pooped.

[ryan]

LOL, too dense as in too much information or too much conflicting info?

I believe they both induce migraines, so... both.

Will try to scrap something together, but I just did a reread of another game and am a little mentally pooped.

I understand TG, we do have alot of content in this thread. The July 7th deadline worries me a little bit as with the 4th coming up it's possible we could have a few of us doing activities. Some fresh content would be appreciated.

[vollkan]

This game has been particularly weird due to ABR's "claim" of his own version of psychopath, the very awful results of the Day 1 lynch and night-kills and then Miztef's "unvote".

[Sir Tornado]

Ok, I'll drag things a bit back to day 1, shall I?

Mitzef:

I'm not sure what to think of snichkin's "I just want to prove a point" tatic, so I don't think it's worthwhile to vote him.

that is all.

and

-I don't like snichkin's "I'm trying to prove a point" attitude, but it seems more pro-town to me then scummy
<snip>
that is all.

followed by:

well, now that we are all getting along, should we vote for snichkin and see what happens? he seems to be the one that is tingling people's scumdars.

Why did you ask for snichkin bandwagon when you felt, as you said before that he was not scummy?

You follow this by:

Unvote Vote: Snichkin

for reasons mentioned in StallingChamps post 66 (rule breaking is a definate no no in my books).

I disagree with ABR's reason to vote vanDamien, and would rather wait for snichkin's reaction to this vote.

In which you basically agreed with what SC said, something you did not agree with a few posts back.

Then there is this:

- There is nothing about Rampage that is very scummy, so stop trying to make a bandwagon on him. ok? ok.
<snip>
That is all.

followed by:

I didn't understand vanDamien's reasoning at first, so thanks for clearing it up. This is an obvious contridiction, and I find it hard to believe a pro-town player would make this error. I would really like to hear an explaination from snichkin, but Albert is more scummy in my books and so...

Unvote Vote: Albert B. Rampage

You voted ABR for, basically voting snichkin,

the same person you were voting for

Why?

[ryan]

Nice analysis Sir Tornado, some interesting points brought up that I had frankly, forgot about and good to see you contribute something before our deadline on Saturday

Sweenytodd: Able to post yet? I'd like to hear what you think about Miztef/Deathsauce and the others in the game.

[Miztef]

@Tornado:

about snichkin: I'll admit, I contradict myself at times, but it's because my opinion fluctuates... a lot. At that time, many people were growing suspicious of snichkin, and I came to understand where they were coming from. Also, the game (I believe) was stalling at that time, so any sort of pressure was a welcome help. That post 66 rule breaking was something I didn't look very closely at beforehand. I don't think I directly disagreed with it beforehand (it was a long time ago though, I can't really recall).

With ABR, alot happened and changed with him. He was quite the character, and it was very hard to read him correctly. There was a long period of time between those 2 posts and my opinion changed. I also believe snichkin wasn't posting much, so it was kinda pointless to keep at him when there was no info to be gained.

[Sweenytodd]

Ok guys... This is what I have been working on... I'm going through each person post by post and commenting on what stands out to me...

Deathsauce:

Early in the game, Deathsauce pursued Albert B. Rampage almost exclusively. Once Albert started REALLY acting strangely he only picked up his questiong, though he unvotes and moves on to pressuring lurkers fairly quickly.

After pressuring lurkers and disbelieving Albert's Claim he makes a 180 and suddenly believe's Albert's claim.. (Fishy...) Post 215

Unvotes... Comments on Alberts seeming desire to survive till day 2 “I'm not sure what the significance of surviving an extra day is, but it seems odd. The fact that Miztef seemed to have the same goal is possibly useful information.” Post 286

Back to Lurkers... Votes HK

Points out Miztef's numerous defenses of HK (Good Post) 372

Discusses his post 372 with Paradoxzombie

Begins pursuing HK for actively lurking... (nice that his vote is already there...)

DAY 2:

Explains his mislynch on HK

Back and forth with Ryan over who has contributed the least content betweent them.

FOS's VanDamien for suspecting him without “evidence” Also brings up his 3 man scumgroup... “I am leaning toward a Ryan, Van Damien, Miztef scum group. There seems to be a common front from the three of them, agreeing with each other about who is scum without bothering to explain any of it, hoping that mere repetition will sway opinion. “ Post 549

Responds to Ryan's questioning of his scumgroup theory... Latches onto this theory as a proven fact...

Fumbles with his attacks upon questioning... Doesn't stund up well, gets up to 4 votes....Then Miztef's thing happens...

Leaps on Mistef for his gambit... Argues that it is scummy blah blah blah...

My initial read on him was positive... But I don't like his certainty in labeling Ryan, Mistef, and VD as a scum group (I recognize that it is a possibility) but to spontaneously propose that and then everything which follows flows from that premise... I don't like it... I do like some of the points he makes following Mistef's Ploy, however I feel he overstates the case as Paradox calls him on...

Miztef:

Couple non-serious posts..

Jumps onto SC for the 4th vote on VD early.

I'm not sure what to think of snichkin's "I just want to prove a point" tatic, so I don't think it's worthwhile to vote him.

Explains the VD wagon to VD...

No one has done anything really scummy yet. I switched my vote to stallingchamp only because he was the last on the bandwagon. We are only digging for information here, I doubt you are going to get lynched completely randomly.
Also, it seems the vote count had an error in it and only 4 people had voted you at the time.

I do not like Post52...

There is nothing about Rampage that is very scummy, so stop trying to make a bandwagon on him. ok? ok.

SCUMMY... Rampage has done nothing inherently pro-town either so no reason to fight a bandwagon so early... Almost pleads with people not to vote for him... Also

I don't like snichkin's "I'm trying to prove a point" attitude, but it seems more pro-town to me then scummy

This is scummy because in his next post he says...

well, now that we are all getting along, should we vote for snichkin and see what happens? he seems to be the one that is tingling people's scumdars.

Or we could go after a lurker to try to get this game moving? “

Too eager to go along with other people's opinions... Too eager to follow Ryan and Albert...

Next he votes for someone on the say-so of the person he found most scummy (Stalling Champ)....

Unvote Vote: Snichkin

for reasons mentioned in StallingChamps post 66 (rule breaking is a definate no no in my books).

I disagree with ABR's reason to vote vanDamien, and would rather wait for snichkin's reaction to this vote. “

I do not like this post one bit. He found SC the most scummy when he did his own analysis and now is willing to follow SC onto Snichkin... Looks like someone trying to go along with the common belief...

I also don't like post 82: “

I didn't understand vanDamien's reasoning at first, so thanks for clearing it up. This is an obvious contridiction, and I find it hard to believe a pro-town player would make this error. I would really like to hear an explaination from snichkin, but Albert is more scummy in my books and so...

Unvote Vote: Albert B. Rampage

Wants an explanation from Snichkin based on SC's posting and wants Albert to respond to Deathsauce's post... Nothing about why SC was so quick to put VD at -3... Nothing about Mistef's personal suspicions.

An IGMEOY Katy for Tophat's Posts.... sheesh

Next IGMEOY Tophat.... WTH

Frustrated with ABR... Unvotes quickly upon the claim.

Mistef's Plan: HORRENDOUS PLAN!!! The math would say if you believe Albert you are better off Lynching him early or not at all... Not waiting/mislynching and then trying to aim him...

This is what put me over the line. Complete dismissal of my idea, or any idea at that, is not very pro-town to me, he then states "the correct play..." but who is to say that's the correct play? This whole post seems to me like scum manipulation. (Why is he so sure there is a vig anyway? It's not that common of a role)

Referring to TopHat... Complete Dismissal of a HORRENDOUS Plan is acceptable.... I think that Mistef's plan was bad for the town. I also don't like how Vollkan and Mistef seem to ignore VanDamien's post 257 showing the danger of wiating until D2 to lynch ABR.

That is quite the point, and I am also inclined to believe the claim is a lie because of lawrencelot's post.

NEXT POST (about 7 hours later)

I believe albert. It seems way too crazy to be a mafia ploy, and even if it is, he's gonna die at some point anyway.

“Glad to see you back in the game SC. I too am suspicious of paradox, but the lurkers are my greatest concern right now. That is why I will keep my vote on Ivy until I see some posts. “ Shock suprise... he agrees with SC again...

“Snichkin was the first person really suspected in this game, and I don't think letting Ivy lurk the entire D1 is of any help to the town. I dislike Hurrikaty's lurking, but I'm getting the feeling she will post content soon anyway, I don't feel there is a need to pressure her more at this time. “

This is a false statement.

See Post 52....

So, does that mean the plan is to lynch hurrikaty?

Form your own opinions and don't always ask everyone else who to vote for....

DAY 2

I believe this game needs more evidence overall. We should start bandwagoning/voting with intent to lynch people we find scummy and get some more information

Apparently wants to re-enact D1....

Then we get to Mistef's gambit... I don't like it... I don't see it helping, and I see big flaws with it... I don't see it as scummy or pro-town... I just don't like it.... Mistef, I don't like your play so far and I don't like how no one until sir tornado calls you on your hesitance to take a stand, and your habit of going with the flow... Voting with the popular opinion....

Paradoxombie:

Not much analysis early... Doesn't believe Albert's Claim

Tries to convince people not to believe albert's Claim

Stays on Albert almost whole day... hops over to Hurrikaty

Day 2:
“It's LYLO, people(just in case anyone isn't observant enough to notice) “ False

Defends his strong attacks on albert

Never posts his suspicions of Deathsauce or his Wagon as promissed. Does defe Mistef's Gambit as not inherently Scummy (that is at least accurate).

Attack's Deathsauce's posts as exaggerations. Votes Deathsauce.

Not the most content but he sticks to his guns... I like his most recent contribution regarding Deathsauce.. I think he makes valid points...

I am still working on everyone else... More to follow...

[ryan]

WOW. It's nice to see our replacements bringing some content. We had been so use to TopHat and StallingChamp not doing anything I think we forgot they were even in the game. I do have a quickie for you Sweenytodd. You called Miztef's plan "horrendous" do you feel it was an anti town plan?

[Sweenytodd]

Yes... It was either poorly thought out or deliberatelymisleading, the thing I didn't like most was that after VanDamien posted concerns about letting albert live, there wasn't a mention of it... It's like no one even read VD's Post 257... That aspect of it wasn't discussed again until DogMom brought it up later.... I don't know if that was deliberate but I didn't like ignoring it.

[ryan]

Sweenytodd: Are you saying that VD wanted Albert dead earlier Day 1 and got his wish that night?

[Sweenytodd]

No, I am saying that VanDamien knew that it was numerically more advantageous for Albert to be lynched sooner than later if he was to be lynched... And that was ignored, brushed over by Mistef and Vollkan. I havent finished my re-reads yet, so I won't comment on Vollkan's overall play, but I think Mistef looked to me like he was promoting his plan to the exclusion of all others, even after VD showed it to be flawed numerically.

[ryan]

Ok, I see what you are saying, VD threw out some numbers and it looked as though Miztef and Vollkan ignored those. But if I remember didn't Miztef, Vollkan and a host of others offer numbers showing different scenarios? I can't remember, it's been a LONG time ago and since we're nearing 750 posts it's hard to keep that all straight ya know?

[vollkan]

Nice work replacements for bringing some of the earlier stuff into a new light; gives us more to discuss which is good.

No, I am saying that VanDamien knew that it was numerically more advantageous for Albert to be lynched sooner than later if he was to be lynched... And that was ignored, brushed over by Mistef and Vollkan. I havent finished my re-reads yet, so I won't comment on Vollkan's overall play, but I think Mistef looked to me like he was promoting his plan to the exclusion of all others, even after VD showed it to be flawed numerically.

My initial gut belief was that a later lynch was better since I assumed we would be better informed and less likely to potentially have 3 town deaths (ABR, his hammerer and ABR's target). I got tremendously muddled up with my numbers in the likes of [261], where I said 5:3 was a loss. I almost made that error again a few days ago and my reason was that I read it as "3 scum out of 5 players". I can't remember what prompted me to write that 5:3 was a loss here, but it was possibly the same reason.

Regardless, I thought a D1 lynch of ABR could cause a LYLO D2 and, hence, I thought a D2 lynch was better, though I realise it has many problems as well.

As you say, you haven't reread me yet, but in [306] I stated that DogMom's point that we shouldn't lynch ABR at all unless we were certain he was scum. DogMom was pretty convincing from then on and I agreed with what she had said, hoping it would have changed the minds of the D1 lynch supporters; and also she through out my dodgy numbers and proved that the best option was just to refrain altogether (as I said back in [357]).

[Sir Tornado]

A part of my notes about Miztef's actions on Page 5, 6 and 7 leading upto and immediately after ABR's claim

Page 5

19. Agrees with Top Hat about HK. IGMEOY HK

Page 6

20. Disagrees with Top Hat about HK and Ryan being scum buddies. IGMEOY Tophat.
21. Doesn't like HK's lack of posts, but not going to lynch her over it.
22. Agrees with Volkan about ABR not making sense.
23. Agrees with VD regarding ABR's defence of his behavior being awful.
24. More comments on ABR

Page 7

25. Says he feels ABR is scum due to his play, but has a gut feeling ABR is town. Keeps his vote.
26. Unvotes ABR following his Psychopath claim.
27. Lays down his proposal for ABR
28. Elaborates on his plot for ABR. Calls TopHat suspicious for not agreeing.

In the begining, you see IGMEOY being thrown about. First, he agrees with TopHat that HK might be scum. So, IGMEOY on HK. Then, TopHat posts his theory of Ryan and HK being scum because Ryan devoted more lines to HK than her contents would merit. So, IGMEOY TopHat.

Then, he says (although he is still supposed to have one eye ok HK) that he wouldn't lynch her for her lack of posts (he had agreed with TH and then disagreed with him on her scuminess in his last two posts.)

Then, a couple of posts about ABR, where he agrees with Volkan and VD that ABR isn't playing like a townie. This is followed by this:

Your strategy in this game is just insane Rampage. I want to believe your scum due to the tells, but my gut tells me your pro-town. This just frustrates me alot, and it helps me little to discern who the scum may be.

I'm going to have to keep my vote on you because I dislike the way your playing, and I don't think it should be tolerated as a pro-town way of playing.

Had I been in the game at that time, I would have suspected Miztef and ABR being scumbuddies. However, now that I have the benifit of hindsight, I think it is likely that Miztef knew ABR was innocent, and that people wanted to lynch him. So, this is his way of saying: "I am not too sure whether he is a scum, but I am still keeping my vote on him".

And then, you have his plan:

We wait till day 2. If he is scum, then he is very unlikely to have been NKed, if he is not then hopefully a doc or something saves him. Assuming he survives the night, we lynch him day 2, If what he states is precisely true, we should have the most suspious person be forced to hammer him, or lynch them instead. That way, both alberts kills can be used to our advantage. If he's scum, he dies anyway.

More on this in just a minute.

Now TopHat states his objections to the plan. So, what does Miztef do? Calls TopHat suspicioust! It seems that Miztef was throwing IGMEOYs or suspicions on everyone who disagreed with him at that point.

Now, his proposal for ABR:

Here, he is saying:

1) If ABR is a scum, then he is unlikely to have been NKed.
2) If not, then Doc or something would have protected him.
3) If he survives, lynch him on day 2, with most suspicious person made to hammer him.

After objections from TopHat, he elaborates even more:

4) It's better to be lynched although NK would be fine.

Now, here are the obvious flaws in the reasoning of the ABR proposal:

a. He says that if he is not NKed then he is probably scum. WIFOM

b. If he is not scum, then Doc should protect him. But how is the doc supposed to know whether ABR is scum or not? (ABR's identity was not revealed at that point). Since the Doc doesn't know, the Doc thus, wastes his protection on ABR for N1. So, in short the scum know who the doc is protecting, so they can go and kill someone else with 100% certainty.

c. If he survives (since he is asking for doc protection on ABR he WILL survive) then he should be lynched on day 2. This means that the scum do not have to be in trouble of being lynched on day 2. So, if ABR is lying about his claim, the scum win the game, or force LYLO situation on D3.

d. He says a NK on ABR is fine. But how is ABR going to be NKed when he is supposed to have Doc protection?