Open 176 - Night Watch - GAME OVER


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Post Post #750 (ISO) » Sun Dec 13, 2009 4:45 pm

Post by Adel »

ekiM wrote:Concur with charter that anyone who watched DDD should claim. So do many others.

I already said I don't get charter's suspicion of me. I don't get why DRK followed him without asking for a rationale or for me to respond.

I need to sit down and look at that other Night Watch game to see if hypo-hider is viable. It sounds good to me at first glance. I would like to know why RayFrost doesn't like it.




What are the odds of the hider dying night one if he hides?

P(Hider dying night 1) =
P(Hider picks scum) + P(Hider picks town and that guy is targeted) =
3/11 + ((8/11)*(1/9)) =
3/11 + 8/99 =
27/99 + 8/99 = 35/99 ~= 0.35.

That's assuming random choices, the hider can do better by hiding with someone with less of a reputation and thus less chance of being killed.

Still not worth it, I feel.




Scien's wall of text is totally unproductive, but I don't feel it's alignment indicative. Please try to be more succinct.




I need to hear charter's response to my previous post.




Legitimate contribution:
charter, DRK, ekiM,
KK
, Scien, RayFrost.
Posting but posting nothing worthwhile: Dramonic, hewitt.
AWOL: Gregory, Sleepless Assassin, Octupis
charter wrote:And ekim, what legitimate contribution has KK made so far?
ekiM wrote:charter, you think I killed DDD because of private conversations you had with him that I've never seen? Really?

OK, KK hasn't said anything. Thought he had.


sleeplessassassin the plan is for you to comment on what's happened so far.
is this sequence as much of a scumtell as I think it is?
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Post Post #751 (ISO) » Sun Dec 13, 2009 4:47 pm

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hmm, I could, considering my suspicions on greg died when both Hewitt and SA were revealed as town.

But I have no proof that I'm right and you aint scum.
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Post Post #752 (ISO) » Sun Dec 13, 2009 4:48 pm

Post by dramonic »

lol, missed that gem

Vote: Dragonfly
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Post Post #753 (ISO) » Sun Dec 13, 2009 4:54 pm

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I just reread page 17. I'm sold on ekiM as scum
vote: Dragonfly
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Post Post #754 (ISO) » Sun Dec 13, 2009 4:54 pm

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victory :D
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Post Post #755 (ISO) » Sun Dec 13, 2009 4:54 pm

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i'm not scum, are you?
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Post Post #756 (ISO) » Sun Dec 13, 2009 4:54 pm

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I am ^^
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Post Post #757 (ISO) » Sun Dec 13, 2009 4:54 pm

Post by Adel »

darn.
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Post Post #758 (ISO) » Sun Dec 13, 2009 4:55 pm

Post by charter »

Damnit

Good job dram.
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Post Post #759 (ISO) » Sun Dec 13, 2009 4:55 pm

Post by Adel »

gg
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Post Post #760 (ISO) » Sun Dec 13, 2009 4:55 pm

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charter: what did I miss?
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Post Post #761 (ISO) » Sun Dec 13, 2009 4:56 pm

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I'll be honest, when you replaced in I freaked.
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Post Post #762 (ISO) » Sun Dec 13, 2009 4:57 pm

Post by DeathRowKitty »

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Post Post #763 (ISO) » Sun Dec 13, 2009 4:57 pm

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I replaced in and immediately intuitively thought that dramonic was scum, and I was getting worried that my cognitive bias was going to let obvious scum slip through.
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Post Post #764 (ISO) » Sun Dec 13, 2009 4:57 pm

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DeathRowKitty wrote:I called it first :P
XD
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Post Post #765 (ISO) » Sun Dec 13, 2009 4:59 pm

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sorry for losing the game for the rest of you. I didn't do my meta homework on Scien and dramonic like I intended to, so I feel like I only have my own laziness to blame.
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Post Post #766 (ISO) » Sun Dec 13, 2009 5:00 pm

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damnit
Adel wrote:kk: charter - hewitt - Sleepless Assassin - Scien
scien: Hewitt - Charter - Kublai Khan
ekim: hewitt - dramonic
dramonic: Charter - Scien - Greg - SA - Greg - SA


I'm think this could be a scumtell against you. I think that a scumteam of three players of moderate experience would do a little bit of distancing by voting eachother when it wasn't a serious threat of a lynch. Retort?
your hesitation in answering this should've made me pause.
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Post Post #767 (ISO) » Sun Dec 13, 2009 5:01 pm

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Not your fault. Personally, I think SA had a decent part in it by taking a watcher down with him, which forced us to trade both watchers for KK.
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Post Post #768 (ISO) » Sun Dec 13, 2009 5:02 pm

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I was kinda worried when you asked for my other games with DDD.
I'm the one who asked for the DDD lynch in the QT, based on my less than pleasant interaction with him in that other game :P
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Post Post #769 (ISO) » Sun Dec 13, 2009 5:03 pm

Post by dramonic »

Adel wrote:damnit
Adel wrote:kk: charter - hewitt - Sleepless Assassin - Scien
scien: Hewitt - Charter - Kublai Khan
ekim: hewitt - dramonic
dramonic: Charter - Scien - Greg - SA - Greg - SA


I'm think this could be a scumtell against you. I think that a scumteam of three players of moderate experience would do a little bit of distancing by voting eachother when it wasn't a serious threat of a lynch. Retort?
your hesitation in answering this should've made me pause.
I actually didnt see this post 0_o
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Post Post #770 (ISO) » Sun Dec 13, 2009 5:07 pm

Post by Adel »

ekiM in 284 wrote:
dramonic yesterday wrote:I'm getting more a newbtown vibe than newbscum vibe from SA.
dramonic in 285 wrote:
ekiM wrote:It helps that I have a pro-town read on SA.
I'm baffled by this. What has SA did that could potentially come off as protown???
How can you have had a town vibe from SA yesterday and now be "baffled" that someone could have a town read on her? Please explain.
dramonic wrote:Because reading someone in ISO can lead to incorrect assumptions. Once you read the complete interaction you see how scum he is.
really good job on following up on this dramonic. Since nobody else focused upon it, I totally didn't consider it a legitimate tell.
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Post Post #771 (ISO) » Sun Dec 13, 2009 5:09 pm

Post by dramonic »

thank you, coming from you I'm flattered :)
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Post Post #772 (ISO) » Sun Dec 13, 2009 5:12 pm

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np
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Post Post #773 (ISO) » Sun Dec 13, 2009 5:25 pm

Post by Scien »

Woo!
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Post Post #774 (ISO) » Sun Dec 13, 2009 5:28 pm

Post by Scien »

Jeze those power roles are hard to get through. We got really lucky with both how they were outed and our night one.

BTW, I am a bit defensive but I was actively trying to behave... well noobie... after the hider hit me. Trying to provoke a quick lynch of me and all. Don't think it worked.

Scared the crap out of Dramonic with how much I pointed at him though heh.

BTW Dramonic, nice work. I figured we were hosed after night 1. I guess I need to watch out for you in the future.

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