Mini 518: Underground Mafia, The Nightmare is Over!

[Jitsu]

I'm glad to be back and feeling better after a nasty battle with pinkeye in real life.

Quick reaction on last few days:

Wow, nobody died last night?? I think we should be careful not to jump to the conclusion that the mafia kill was blocked. It may have been, but it is still possible due to the long holiday weekend that a kill choice was not received by the mod. (NabNab does not explicitly state what happens in that case.)

And Korlash really was mafia? I was sitting on the fence about whether I should change my vote to him, but he was lynched before I got a chance to check the thread again. The wagon on Korlash did move pretty quickly (thinking in Adel's visual terms), but then again, the evidence that CKD turned up against Korlash was as convincing as anything else we've seen so far.

I need to go back and reread the thread with the knowledge that Korlash was scum and see what I can find. It's great that he got lynched, but since he was heavily criticised by a lot of the players here, I don't know what obvious conclusions can be drawn right away, other than Adel's original guess on Korlash from his models did end up working out.

[Mr. Flay]

Setael was 5th on Korlash's wagon, and Korlash went down with Setael as his vote-target. Interesting...

I'd say Adel is extremely unlikely to be Korlash's partner. Jitsu I'm ambivalent about based on the dawn-post above, and jerubbal threw the hammer awfully fast IMO. Will need to reread...

[Adel]

so the question is: who bussed Korlash?

[Adel]

Nominate

: Sudo_Nym to take the point position in asking questions, and lead the town for the next few pages.

I'm willing to apply heavy pressure to any player that evades or ignores his questions.

[curiouskarmadog]

back, reading how the end of the lynch went down.

[Mr. Flay]

Why is Sudo cleared for you, Adel? Why are you taking a backseat?

[Abstract Actuary]

This is one of my first mafia games on this site so you guys will have to help me out with typical next day activities after a mafia lynch. But here goes.

so the question is: who bussed Korlash?

Is that the best question to ask? I know at the very least it isn't the only question. What about the players who didn't vote for Korlash (I know I am on this list)? I do understand that oftentimes mafia will put a vote in for their scumbuddy, especially late when it seems that the lynching is inevitable.

Nominate

: Sudo_Nym to take the point position in asking questions, and lead the town for the next few pages.

I'm willing to apply heavy pressure to any player that evades or ignores his questions.

Is this typical? Why single someone out for this role? If, like Mr. Flay suggests, you feel strongly about their innocence, making that apparent is very bad, isn't it? Also, I'd prefer that everyone actively discusses everything that happened, instead of one person leading the charge.


My top suspects:

jerubbaal: Placed the hammer vote on Korlash. A big scumtell on my other site. Also, this quote screams, "I know he is scum." Only 2 other people "knew".

The case against Korlash is very strong and based on very little speculation, so I see little reason to drag the day out any longer. Kudos to all those who caught the contradictions. I hope the cases continue to be this clear.

I also still think his original praising of Jitsu was scummy.

GunslingerKB: He and Korlash voted for each other in the random vote stage. He voted for Korlash at the end of day 1, too. He stayed silent last round. He was acting suspicious and not answering questions. He asked to be replaced after a scumbuddy was lynched. Note: the last three points may be related to a real life event, and not a scumtell at all.

What about the idea that GunslingerKB was mafia, didn't respond "overnight" and that is the reason he is being replaced and also the reason no one was killed overnight? Is this type of speculation typical/allowed?

Setael: She cast the L-1 vote for Korlash, in a scummy way. Korlash defended her (Anata112). Korlash cast his dying vote for her. If Korlash is clever then he did a good job setting Setael up to go down with him by leaving this trail. If that is the case, I especially suspect Mr. Flay for being the first to point it out. Also, all the Anata112 arguments about being replaced and then participating in another game.

Related sidenote: If you get replaced in a game, does it still go on your "record"?

[Setael]

Setael: She cast the L-1 vote for Korlash, in a scummy way.

Please expound. How was it scummy? I found a post no one else had mentioned that imo proved korlash had lied. Everything else being used was from ongoing games and could only be hinted at but the one I found was in this game so I quoted it.

There was actual evidence found that korlash lied. I was more confident about my vote for him than I usually am because of the contradiction I found in his posts. I was not surprised he was hammered fast because there was just no other way to explain his contradictions other than that he was lying about his role claim. I am much more suspicious of those who read the thread and then didn't vote korlash (or didn't at least bother to check the meta that was being hinted at).

I have a question for everyone who didn't vote for Korlash. Did you check the thread, read the posts pointing out his contradictions and lies and then not vote? If so, why? What reasons did you have for still thinking he wasn't scum after those posts? (I recognize that not everyone will have read the thread since the hammer came so quickly but I'd like to hear from those that did and decided not to vote).

[Jitsu]

I still need to reread also, but although the lynch on Korlash was certainly justified (given his apparent lie), I'm a bit concerned that people weren't willing to stop and discuss the situation or other suspects, or get comments from some of the other players first. There was a fair bit of lurking on Day 2, and there was virtually no pressure on anyone but Korlash. I was really hoping we could get more information before day 2 ended.

I think it's likely someone bussed Korlash also, given how fast the wagon moved and how generally cautious people have been. Sudo, Setael, and Jerub were all in good positions to bus, since Flay's vote appeared to give the growing wagon more legitimacy, and the evidence against Korlash was damning enough at that point that he probably was not going to escape.

Gunslinger: I got the impression that he never committed much time to the game. He had rarely any posts with any content, though the few that did weren't really great. I'm still highly suspicious of his role, but maybe his replacement will give us something more to work with.

Sudo: He has voted and posted, but he says so little that it's really difficult to get a read on him at all. Out of all the recently "active" players, he's the hardest to read. Some may say that that is a matter of play style, but I think it's somewhat anti-town. To help fellow townies, you should at least post enough for people to get a read on you. He has kept his cards really close to his vest for a long time.

As for Adel, I echo the criticism of Adel's apparent desire to cruise and serve an an enforcer for Sudo. I would have to reread to find out where Sudo has actually asked another player a direct question, because it has been rare, to say the least. I do agree with Adel's apparent desire to see more content from Sudo (as mentioned in the previous paragraph).

As for Setael, I too wonder why Korlash voted Setael after having defended her for most of Day 1. He even stated repeatedly that the case on her was never really sufficient for him -- so why did he vote her with his dying breath then? I think the most likely explanations are that either he was trying to set her up for a mislynch today (as AA said), or he was helping her yet again by distancing from her (since he was already going down in flames).

Jerub's hammer was a bit suspicious. Jerub, at that point, Korlash was really circling the drain at L-1, so why end it so quickly? I know we didn't need a claim for him, but what was the harm in waiting until after the holiday weekend was over and for everyone to get back so we could at least discuss things more?

CKD: I was a bit worried about you given how hard you pushed for the Miztef lynch, but your case on Korlash was solid. I have a question for you: What is your opinion on Setael now, given recent events? You defended her before. What do you think about her now?

Flay: I know my dawn post wasn't great. I was wary on voting Korlash (even though I admitted the evidence against him was good) because a mislynch on Day 2 would have put the town in a really bad situation (we could have even been in LYLO on Day 3). I tried to delicately explain what I think CKD saw so others could find it easier, and see how people would react to the case on Korlash. I was away from a computer between Tuesday afternoon (Korlash had three votes on him then) until Wednesday evening. I was frankly surprised to find out that he had already been lynched Wednesday afternoon.

AA: Why did you think Gunslinger asked for replacement after his scumbuddy was lynched? I don't see where NabakovNabakov said that. NN said that Gunslinger had not responded to his prod and was in danger of being replaced. And that was well before the Korlash wagon got up to full speed. You seem to find Setael scummy, but then you turn it around in the next sentence and explore the possibility of her being innocent (the scum setting her up) pointing the finger at Mr. Flay. Then in the final sentence, you seem to go back to referring to the arguments against Anata and her dropping out. So what do you really think about her?

[Jitsu]

I have a question for everyone who didn't vote for Korlash. Did you check the thread, read the posts pointing out his contradictions and lies and then not vote? If so, why? What reasons did you have for still thinking he wasn't scum after those posts? (I recognize that not everyone will have read the thread since the hammer came so quickly but I'd like to hear from those that did and decided not to vote).

I did see the meta, and I commented on it already. I thought he was scummy (though I admit still had some doubt), but I wanted for there to be more discussion before he was lynched so we would have more information going into today. Nobody else really had any pressure on him, and a mislynch could have put us in LYLO, as I said.

So you defending the quick hammer on Korlash then? Do you really feel that he wasn't bussed?

[Jitsu]

"Nobody else really had any pressure on him" was intended to mean, "there wasn't really any pressure on anyone else".

[Adel]

Why is Sudo cleared for you, Adel? Why are you taking a backseat?

Where did I say that Sudo was cleared? You've made yourself so comfortable in the back seat, I thought I would join you.

Nominate

: Sudo_Nym to take the point position in asking questions, and lead the town for the next few pages.

Is this typical? Why single someone out for this role? If, like Mr. Flay suggests, you feel strongly about their innocence, making that apparent is very bad, isn't it? Also, I'd prefer that everyone actively discusses everything that happened, instead of one person leading the charge.

It isn't typical. When he is a town player, I know he is very astute.

What about the idea that GunslingerKB was mafia, didn't respond "overnight" and that is the reason he is being replaced and also the reason no one was killed overnight? Is this type of speculation typical/allowed?

It is typical, and it is allowed. It is occasionally effective.

If that is the case, I especially suspect Mr. Flay for being the first to point it out.

Please share with us the quote that led you to this conclusion, and expand on why you think it would be a scumtell on Mr. Flay.

[Abstract Actuary]

Setael: She cast the L-1 vote for Korlash, in a scummy way.

Please expound. How was it scummy? I found a post no one else had mentioned that imo proved korlash had lied. Everything else being used was from ongoing games and could only be hinted at but the one I found was in this game so I quoted it.

The post in question was not much evidence at all. In past games I've noticed that the late voting scumbuddies like to echo the existing arguments and try to throw something new in there to make it look like they have a reason to vote for the person in question "now" instead of "before" when the existing arguments were already in place. In other words, "this is why I'm voting now, so late, instead of earlier."

There was actual evidence found that korlash lied. I was more confident about my vote for him than I usually am because of the contradiction I found in his posts. I was not surprised he was hammered fast because there was just no other way to explain his contradictions other than that he was lying about his role claim. I am much more suspicious of those who read the thread and then didn't vote korlash (or didn't at least bother to check the meta that was being hinted at).

I have a question for everyone who didn't vote for Korlash. Did you check the thread, read the posts pointing out his contradictions and lies and then not vote? If so, why? What reasons did you have for still thinking he wasn't scum after those posts? (I recognize that not everyone will have read the thread since the hammer came so quickly but I'd like to hear from those that did and decided not to vote).

I disagree. I did read the posts in question. I read the arguments by those who thought they were especially damning. I thought it made him look bad, but it wasn't as cut and dry as some people have maintained.

There were three posts in question. The first post in this game that he mentions not knowing about the role, a much later post in this game where he defends his ignorance about the role and the post/events from the other game. The post/events from the other game came

after

the first post in question. If it came before then the case would be as cut and dry as many were saying. The fact that it game before his defensive post was bad, but not damning, in my opinion.

You say,

What reasons did you have for thinking he wasn't scum after those posts?

You can read my post following this debate. I thought he was possibly scum. I wasn't totally sold. I stated I was willing to lynch him and even thought he was probably our best choice. But I wasn't ready to lynch him at the time. Frankly, even though we got a mafia member on day 2, it left something to be desired. We didn't gain much other information (apart from his allegiance and evidence surrounding his demise). I would have rather we examined some other people who haven't taken any heat yet a little more closely before the day was out. A quick hammer, even on scum, is beneficial to scum.

[jerubbaal]

I'm honestly surprised that I'm catching flak for hammering Korlash. The case was entirely clear cut - he made a fishy role-claim and then was caught in a flat-out lie about it. You don't get many cases clearer than that. There might not have been any harm in waiting til the weekend was over, but I saw little advantage in it either. I don't see why dragging out the lynch of an obvious liar is supposed to be profitable for the town.

AA, how the hell does that post "scream scum?" The case was completely clear, and I think Setael's point made it even clearer. You would have to be a donkey not to see the lie after so many people pointed it out.

I do think one of the late jumpers on is probably scum. CKD found the lie and Adel started the case on Korlash when no one else was really pushing them, so I don't think they're scummy in this incident. The vote which actually confuses me the most is Flay's, because, despite the fact that Korlash was clearly caught in a lie, he still stated that he would prefer to lynch Gunslinger. His reason for going for Korlash instead wasn't that he thought the case was stronger (which it was), but it was that people didn't seem to have the will to lynch Gunslinger on that day. And here, in the beginning of this day, he' doesn't even list Gunslinger among his suspicious persons or even mention the possible relevance of him leaving the game. I find this conspicuously inconsistent.

Also, regarding the scenario, it seems very odd that we should have no NK last night. The most obvious situation is a doc-block, which does potentially give us some information in the future, but little right now. As last weekend was a holiday weekend, the suggestion that the mafia may simply have forgotten to send in an NK holds more credit than it usually would. However, only having one kill night 1 and none night 2 would seem to suggest that we do not have an SK, something that I understood was common in mini-normals as a way to balance the game. The other explanation here is that we do have an SK, but it is someone who is inactive, like Gunslinger. I am curious what the common mini-normal setups are which don't use an SK, and if this situation is likely to be one of them.

[Adel]

vote: Mr. Flay

post or perish.

show us your cards.

[Abstract Actuary]

AA: Why did you think Gunslinger asked for replacement after his scumbuddy was lynched? I don't see where NabakovNabakov said that. NN said that Gunslinger had not responded to his prod and was in danger of being replaced. And that was well before the Korlash wagon got up to full speed.

I forgot about the prenight replacement comments by NabokovNabokov. In light of that, the replacement is less suspicious. He may have thought, "Wow, my partner just got caught, the rest of us are in trouble, this is hopeless." There is still a pretty solid case against him, in my opinion. I would prefer we waited for a replacement, though.

You seem to find Setael scummy, but then you turn it around in the next sentence and explore the possibility of her being innocent (the scum setting her up) pointing the finger at Mr. Flay. Then in the final sentence, you seem to go back to referring to the arguments against Anata and her dropping out. So what do you really think about her?

I do find Setael scummy. I have her as my third suspect in my post and that stands. I think the evidence against is very real, however, if Korlash was clever enough most of it could have been set up by him to paint her as scummy once he went down. That was my only point. The evidence exists; a clever Korlash may have planted it.

If that is the case, I especially suspect Mr. Flay for being the first to point it out.

Please share with us the quote that led you to this conclusion, and expand on why you think it would be a scumtell on Mr. Flay.

For this argument, lets assume that we lynch Setael today based on the connection to Korlash and she turns up innocent.

As I say above, Korlash may have cleverly (or inadvertently) set up Setael to be lynched after his demise. Mr. Flay was the first to introduce the concept of a Korlash-Setael connection on day 3 in this post.

Setael was 5th on Korlash's wagon, and Korlash went down with Setael as his vote-target. Interesting...

It isn't much, but Mr. Flay, as scum, may have realized that Setael could be an easy post-Korlash sell and tried to plant the seed early on. I admit, the Setael-Korlash connection is very real.

I know there are a couple big ifs. I'm not advocating a Mr. Flay at this point. There are much better choices for Day 3 in my opinion. I just wanted to get that idea out there now, while it was fresh in my mind.

[Abstract Actuary]

AA, how the hell does that post "scream scum?" The case was completely clear, and I think Setael's point made it even clearer. You would have to be a donkey not to see the lie after so many people pointed it out.

The case was not that cut and dry. I saw all the evidence but I have never found a case in any mafia game where you can be absolutely positive that someone is scum (barring some role player's influence).

Short days benefit scum.

[Mr. Flay]

vote: Mr. Flay

post or perish.

show us your cards.

The hell, you're STILL after my goat? Stop bandwagoning and make your own case, you're better than this. I repeat, "Why are you willing to let Sudo drive, if you are not clearing him?"

And here, in the beginning of this day, he' doesn't even list Gunslinger among his suspicious persons or even mention the possible relevance of him leaving the game.

Guess what - Gunslinger is being replaced. There's NO REASON to suspect that he asked for replacement, since the mod confirmed in-thread that he hadn't picked up the last prod before Nightfall. Therefore, much of Gunslinger's behavior can be attributed to simply Not Being Present, rather than Active Lurking or Actual Scumminess. That's why I'm not mentioning him at present; there's

no point

until we get to hear from his replacement, unless you're advocating lynching him before NabakovNabakov finds a replacement? Yeah, I didn't think so. I'm not clearing him, by any means, but he's not a profitable line of inquiry at this moment.

Anyone who thinks I'm this transparent as scum REALLY needs to check out my past games, or get their scum-meter calibrated. I'm known for at least two things that make the current bandwagon suspicious: Throwing partners under the bus (in which case there was no reason for me to wait for CKD to point out Korlash's lie), and overly analytical posts (in which case the supposed "framing" of Setael is laughable).

FOS: jerubbaal, Jitsu,

and to a much lesser extent AA and Adel. However at present I'm happiest with a

Vote: Setael

, because the idea of a "clever" Korlash framing her makes me giggle.

[Mr. Flay]

Note: the above post is without rereading Day One yet, but I felt the need to respond to the nonsensical bandwagon that's growing here, first.

[Adel]

that will do

unvote, vote: Satael

[Adel]

that will do

unvote, vote: Satael

"Why are you willing to let Sudo drive, if you are not clearing him?"

Because I think it would be illuminating to have him ask the questions, and force his questions to be answered.

~~~~

I'm loving how a bandwagon that consisted of me alone prompted such a reaction. Loving it.

[curiouskarmadog]

interesting....going to reread a bit, but the type of activity today is quite interesting.

[Jitsu]

@Jerub: I wasn't questioning your hammer as much as the timing. The hammer was justified. I think we could have waited longer and gotten more information. I don't think there was much danger in letting Korlash dangle for a bit longer, as I couldn't see him arguing his way out of the lynch.

@Flay: Can I ask your specific reason for the FoS? You said it was because of the dawn post, but what specifically was it that bothered you?

As for the Setael wagon, I will support that. Besides the fact that I've been suspicious of her for most of the game, I really don't like how she seems to be focusing on the people who did not vote for Korlash instead of considering the bussing theory more carefully. I know that I am pro-town, Gunslinger is unavailable for comment, and I'm having doubts that AA is scum at the moment given that he seemed to share some of my doubts on Korlash and that Day 2 ended too quickly. I also don't think we should have let her off the hook so easily on Day 1 and 2. I like the idea of putting some pressure back on Setael.

Vote: Setael

[NabakovNabakov]

Oman replaces GunslingerKB!

Vote Count as of Post 822

Setael (3):

Mr. Flay, Adel, Jitsu

Not Voting (6):

Abstract Actuary, jerubbaal,

GunslingerKB

Oman, Satael, curiouskarmadog, Sudo_Nym

9 alive, 5 will lynch.

[Abstract Actuary]

Vote: jerubbaal

I would be willing to vote for Setael and GunslingerKB (after we've heard from his replacement) as well.