Mystery Mafia 2- Game Over! But who won!?

[elvis_knits]

I think landlord is a player though, whether he's controlled by BM or not. He can vote (at least today) and he appears in the player list. If he's BM and also a player, he's probably here to screw around, as it would be unfair to any faction to have the mod on their side. Maybe he's some sort of survivor?

Btw, I was only absent during the day. I went home during the day to sleep it off. Does not mean I have a night action per se, this is what my pm said.

Are you saying you could perform night actions or not?

[bionicchop2]

OK, reread is complete.

I think the most important occurrances at this time are:

1. The hypoclaim. Anybody unsure of what this is needs to immediately read day 5.

2. The events prior to night 4 (those who went home drunk) - Landlord, Lawrence, Litral

3. deaths and new arrivals.

=======

1. It has been posted a few times and analyzed. Fonz obviously wanted to make it known he blocked Tony, which is why he presented this idea. There is plenty of WIFOM to be had posthumously. I will do this elimination again even though some have done it. I think some mistakes were made and I need to think it through myself.

A.

Tony ---> Lawrence

- Tony says he could not be blocked since he has no night action. This also means he could not block or protect Lawrence. This scenario is not the cause of the no kill. It reveals nothing about the alignment of either.

B. Forbidden --->

MafiaSSK

- Forbidden did not block a kill, but may have saved a kill target. SSK was not a likely kill target as the most likely lynch candidate for D5, but I won't try to guess scum kill attempts.

C. Farside ---->

Litral

- same as scenario B. Litral was not blocked, but may have been saved.

D. Elvis ----> Tony - (possible) We don't have any reasons to eliminate this yet.

E. Lawrence ---->Landlord - (possible) We don't have any reasons to eliminate this yet.

F. Fonz ----> TM (possible) - most likely due to the knowledge Fonz did block Tony.

G.

Litral ----> farside

- Litral did not have any known blocking or killing abilities. This means Farside can only have attempted a kill if a doctor saved.

H.

MafiaSSK ----> no one

- obviously not an option

So, what does all this mean? Well unless everybody else in the list says definitively they are not a doctor, role blocker, or anything else which may have stopped a kill, it does not do much. I don't think we want to go that route either because it would require outing any protective roles. The simplest explanation would be Tony attempted a kill, but was blocked. Barring any additional information, this is the route I would go.

=======

2. I am looking at this event fairly straight forward (out-guessing all out-guessing of the mod!). I think they went home for the remainder of the day phase. I am open to this having more meaning, but for now, there is not enough information and the speculations would be to wide.

=======

3. N2 Deaths: Dasquian
D3 deaths: Kison (bomb), VRK, Remuss, mnowax
D3 joins: (elvis,

Litral

, Tony {Jenter}, Forbidden {Dahill}, Lawrence, Farside)
D3 Lynch: Lord Hur (maf)
N3 deaths: Volkan (stabbed)
D4 joins:The Fonz, MafiaSSK
D4 death: Patrick (smashed - 'vig' by forbidden), no lynch occurred
N4: NO DEATHS
D5 deaths: MafiaSSK (John F. Kramer) lynched
N5 deaths: The Fonz (stabbed), Litral (bashed over the head)
D6 joins: Surye, Korlash, BionicChop (Rep. Afatchic),Mr. Flay, Killa Seven

- When all original players died - there was no signs of anybody who would be mauling people. (Vengeful vigilante possible - last kill of this type was the night after he died if you count the dismembered)
*Patrick states same theory during his lynch.
**There may also be forces outside our control - mauling may be the result of modkill for violation of posting restrictions?
***This obviously comes with the bonus knowledge that Patrick was town. Patrick was the proper lynch / kill on D4 for reasons of closing that chapter out.

- Night 3 stabbing (Vollkan) - someone who replaced in day 3. (elvis,

Litral

, Tony {Jenter}, Forbidden {Dahill}, Lawrence, Farside)

- No shotgun deaths since Lord was lynched, only stabbing or bashing deaths. I think the bashing deaths are from someone who purchased a pint of beer or a bottle of rum (similarity to smashing from empty glass). This would be Tony or Lawrence. Since Litral was acting scummy, I see this as a potential vig kill. I think 1 scum group has been eliminated (shotgun deaths) but a new group is around (stabbers). The only flaw is this would seem to give a huge disadvantage to those who were in Lord Hur's scum group (which is still unclear. I would have assumed red was all the same, but somebody stated BM does multi scum groups as the same color).

SUMMARY: Somebody who joined D3 is responsible for the stabbings. The only night without a stabbing, Tony was blocked. Barring any additional evidence, the most likely reason is Tony is scum / killer. Here is where the WIFOM comes in. Why would Fonz not have blocked Tony again? Maybe he did. If he did, maybe Tony had a partner who submitted a kill for Fonz. Tony may have also been framed. We have seen town day cops - what is there to say there is not a scum role cop who found out Fonz was a RB? With those thoughts in mind, Tony is still top suspect.

Likely scenarios (in order, assuming no doc save since we have been given no information to suggest this happened):
1. Tony had his kill blocked
2. Those who went home (Landlord, Lawrence) were kept from night actions
3. There was an intentional no kill

========

elvis' logic looks good to me. Vote: TonyMontana while I reread.

Yeah, nice, put me at L-2 while you reread. ¬¬

I have done my reread and I am going to put you at L-1 and ask for a claim. We need maximum time to digest anything you say.

Vote: TonyMontana

[Mr. Flay]

Still in the Forest (11):

14. Elvis Knits
17. TonyMontana (Rep. Jenter Brolincani)
18. Forbiddanlight (Rep. Dahill1)
19. Lawrencelot
20. Farside22
23. Landlord
24. Surye
25. Korlash
26. BionicChop (Rep. Afatchic)
27. Mr. Flay
28. Killa Seven

23+ are new to the game as of D6. Nobody from before page 15 is still alive, which is really

odd

. Caveat: I'm not reading those pages unless I have to.

Also, the nightkills seem to be randomized, otherwise I can't figure out who ate DGB Night 1, or took Dasquian apart Night 2.

No one who was alive N1 to kill DGB (players 1-12) turned up anything like a Werewolf

, unless MNOWAX was a pro-town Cannibal. Anybody got an alternate theory that doesn't involve ashmite killing 72 hours after his lynch? We seem to have only one NK recently (Litral's death appears to be related to the lack of Counting - probably his role required everyone alive to quote him in order to win). The stabby deaths Nights 3 & 4 point to a possible SK, but they'd have had to be a late starter, which is weird even for a BM game. Still, they'll have to be in the 14-20 set, because 21 & 22 are both dead (and Town).

---

Lawrencelot defended lord_hur on the crucial Day 3B (after the bombing), when it was hur or Patrick. elvis thought Patrick was a werewolf, which doesn't make much sense to me if she's one, but she might be a replacement Mafia (lord_hur's giving up makes more sense this way). farside chased Patrick into the grave D4, but her logic is largely sound in retrospect. On the other hand, I'm not crazy about forbiddanlight's "I have a theory, but I'm not going to give it in Patrick's defense". The subsequent explanation is weak, and her waffling on killing Patrick later in the day is worrisome. Also:

If I explode here too I'm going to have to say that I just attract various combustion driven events.

Does this actually mean anything, or were you struck by a Bomb in another game? On the gripping hand, her "kill" of Patrick is in character with her thinking he was the last surviving original scum.

Landlord is BM or BM-controlled. Posting style is identical, and posts 642 (he didn't actually give a player a direct advantage, because he didn't do it right) and 782 (votes after majority is reached, claims a target on the dead player) clinch it for me. Most likely alignment is Survivor, so right this second I'm not worried about him, while we still have good suspects and plenty of players.

John F. Kramer was a Prohibition Commissioner in the USA, which explains MafiaSSK's pronouncements about alcohol.

Unvote

. I still like TonyMontana for scum, but not for the hypoclaim reasons previously mentioned. The drunkenness thing makes it equally likely that the remaining scum group was drunk to the point of insensibility, which only really points the finger at the three L's. For what should be obvious reasons, I only believe one of them capable of being our killer...

Vote: Lawrencelot

. I also think the divided-hypoclaim idea in post 741 is pure confusatory insanity. I will, however, still support a TM lynch at deadline if need be.

[Mr. Flay]

EBWOP: bionicchop2 has some good points regarding who is alive when, but I'm having a hard time imagining that for 1 coin you could buy a 1-night Vigilante kill.

[forbiddanlight]

Does this actually mean anything, or were you struck by a Bomb in another game? On the gripping hand, her "kill" of Patrick is in character with her thinking he was the last surviving original scum.

I believe that was in reference to Worst Role Ideas after I blew up in attention whoring hilarity.

Also, I forgot whatever theory I had :S...and I didn't want to give Patrick an out at the time most likely :S.

EBWOP: bionicchop2 has some good points regarding who is alive when, but I'm having a hard time imagining that for 1 coin you could buy a 1-night Vigilante kill.

And right after you talked about my dayvig too. It wouldn't surprise me, since it's kinda what you least expect. Everyone thought the shotgun was going to be a vig item because it was expensive. Whoops, guess the glass was (To be fair, I bought the glass thinking something like that would happen. Mysteries ALWAYS have the least likely option being the most useful)

[Mr. Flay]

Sorry, I forgot to take the scare quotes off of kill in regards to Patrick: I had to go back and check if he was actually murdered or just incapacitated.

Thing is, someone besides you got a Vig kill as well, unless you're claiming to have killed Litral last night with the same mug. Anyone who bought beer probably has an 'empty glass' now too. farside22 could have bought 12 insta-kills; are you really proposing that was the setup?!? I haven't figured out how to balance that 'D4' intermission in my head, but cheap instakills isn't it IMO.

[bionicchop2]

23+ are new to the game as of D6. Nobody from before page 15 is still alive, which is really odd. Caveat: I'm not reading those pages unless I have to.

There is nothing critical there. All it really shows is there are unusual game mechanics. We basically started a new game on day 3 with a jump start on 2 suspects (Lord Hur and Patrick).

Anybody got an alternate theory that doesn't involve ashmite killing 72 hours after his lynch?

While I still think ashmite could be responsible (nothing is ever impossible), I have also noted the additional kills may be mod generated.

Still, they'll have to be in the 14-20 set, because 21 & 22 are both dead (and Town).

agree

Lawrencelot defended lord_hur on the crucial Day 3B

With the lack of shotgun deaths, I do not think we will link anybody to Lord. If Lawrence turns out to be the stabber, I think it will be independent of his defense of Lord Hur.

Landlord is BM or BM-controlled.

Possibly. The account only posts in this game which would support this argument. Either way, the account is voting. If it is BM controlled, then it can't have a win condition and we should completely ignore it.

I still like TonyMontana for scum, but not for the hypoclaim reasons previously mentioned. The drunkenness thing makes it equally likely that the remaining scum group was drunk to the point of insensibility, which only really points the finger at the three L's. For what should be obvious reasons, I only believe one of them capable of being our killer... Vote: Lawrencelot.

I lean the other way (Tony over Lawrence) but don't disagree with your assessment. My reason for leaning to Tony is I know what a role blocker does and I know a role blocker targeted Tony. This minimizes guess work for me. The drunkenness could mean much more, but it is my 2nd best guess as to the reason behind the no kill.

[bionicchop2]

EBWOP: bionicchop2 has some good points regarding who is alive when, but I'm having a hard time imagining that for 1 coin you could buy a 1-night Vigilante kill.

For zero coins mnowax had unlimited kills for the first 2 pages of the game, so this does not seem too far fetched to me.

[TonyMontana]

My reason for leaning to Tony is I know what a role blocker does and I know a role blocker targeted Tony.

Not even I

knows

for certain that fonz actually blocked me.

I have done my reread and I am going to put you at L-1 and ask for a claim. We need maximum time to digest anything you say.

I have already said that there was nothing to block from me. I'm just vanilla.

Vote:Lawrencelot

I don't think it was a coincidence that there was no kills on the night following the absence of the L's. And it's way more likely than the prospect of a doc save.

[Mr. Flay]

EBWOP: Lawrencelot or farside22 could have bought 12 instakills

each

. That's enough for either of them to kill the rest of the game's players at that moment in time, sealing the Win for their faction. Extremely improbable.

For zero coins mnowax had unlimited kills for the first 2 pages of the game, so this does not seem too far fetched to me.

Maybe he did, maybe he didn't; MNOWAX was awfully erratic to base your balance analysis on. If he did, this'll be my last BM game, because I'm tired of his screwball setups, but I promised him I'd play one more.

[bionicchop2]

My reason for leaning to Tony is I know what a role blocker does and I know a role blocker targeted Tony.

Not even I

knows

for certain that fonz actually blocked me.

Are you just trying to argue semantics here? The role blocker said they targeted you. I am not sure the point of your statement here.

[TonyMontana]

The fact that there is possibly a doc AND an RB does not work against the plan- it makes it harder for the scum to know who to shoot at, since they don't know which was the actual stopper.

This made no sense. Of course the scum would know who stopped the kill. Except if both his target and himself was targeted in the hypo, it's a pretty clean cut case isn't it?

This just reaffirms my belief that Lawrence missed his shot at a kill.

[forbiddanlight]

Sorry, I forgot to take the scare quotes off of kill in regards to Patrick: I had to go back and check if he was actually murdered or just incapacitated.

Thing is, someone besides you got a Vig kill as well, unless you're claiming to have killed Litral last night with the same mug. Anyone who bought beer probably has an 'empty glass' now too. farside22 could have bought 12 insta-kills; are you really proposing that was the setup?!? I haven't figured out how to balance that 'D4' intermission in my head, but cheap instakills isn't it IMO.

EBWOP: Lawrencelot or farside22 could have bought 12 instakills each. That's enough for either of them to kill the rest of the game's players at that moment in time, sealing the Win for their faction. Extremely improbable.

You do realize we could only hold one item, correct? Both could only buy one. And nope, I was one shot vig. I believe that you are onto something with the beer becoming empty glass.

Not even I knows for certain that fonz actually blocked me.

Well, actually, we do, because a hypoclaim is an opportunity for the real doctors/RBers to claim their real target, while regular townies confuse the issue with their own targets.

Maybe he did, maybe he didn't; MNOWAX was awfully erratic to base your balance analysis on. If he did, this'll be my last BM game, because I'm tired of his screwball setups, but I promised him I'd play one more.

IIRC, mnowax had two kills. But he did change his story a lot. I do highly doubt unlimited kills.

[farside22]

I thought MNOWAX killed 2 people only and couldn't kill any more after that?
One problem with your logic on what we bought Mr.Flay as far as I could tell no one had any knowledge what the items did and I believe we could only buy one item.

[bionicchop2]

EBWOP: Lawrencelot or farside22 could have bought 12 instakills

each

. That's enough for either of them to kill the rest of the game's players at that moment in time, sealing the Win for their faction. Extremely improbable.

For zero coins mnowax had unlimited kills for the first 2 pages of the game, so this does not seem too far fetched to me.

Maybe he did, maybe he didn't; MNOWAX was awfully erratic to base your balance analysis on. If he did, this'll be my last BM game, because I'm tired of his screwball setups, but I promised him I'd play one more.

I see your point with the 12 instakills. We really don't know how it works though. What we do know is forbidden bought a glass and then voted to kill patrick and it happened - using the glass. I don't know if more glasses could have been bought or what the effect of holding multiple glasses would have been.

As for mnowax, I wasn't trying to figure out the balance, just to outline that the ability to kill in this game is not restricted to the norm.

[forbiddanlight]

One problem with your logic on what we bought Mr.Flay as far as I could tell no one had any knowledge what the items did and I believe we could only buy one item.

Bascially this. And once we found out, the bar was closed.

[bionicchop2]

The fact that there is possibly a doc AND an RB does not work against the plan- it makes it harder for the scum to know who to shoot at, since they don't know which was the actual stopper.

This made no sense. Of course the scum would know who stopped the kill. Except if both his target and himself was targeted in the hypo, it's a pretty clean cut case isn't it?

Well you miss that multiple people claimed to have 'targeted' you - meaning if you were scum you wouldn't know for sure which person was responsible.

[Mr. Flay]

You do realize we could only hold one item, correct? Both could only buy one. And nope, I was one shot vig. I believe that you are onto something with the beer becoming empty glass.

One problem with your logic on what we bought Mr.Flay as far as I could tell no one had any knowledge what the items did and I believe we could only buy one item.

Aha, no, good catch. That does pretty much peg the beer-drinker as our Litral-killer as it lowers the improbability significantly... *reads back* TonyMontana! Hey, imagine that... also The Fonz and Patrick. Interesting. Landlord drank a pint without ever buying one, but I'm not sure I'm going to rely on that character for any reliable information. It is weird that Lawrencelot was incapacitated by Rum and Litral by the Vodka Shots - heaviest drinks on the menu, but Landlord only had a beer (as far as we can see) but was taken out for a day.

I don't know that I want to speculate on who did the Litral-kill for now, as it'll make things interesting for the scum tonight.

[Lawrencelot]

Are you saying you could perform night actions or not?

I am saying that I was told that I could not post or do anything during the day, while it said nothing about the night. If I was indeed unable to perform night actions, the mod did not tell me.

Lawrencelot defended lord_hur on the crucial Day 3B (after the bombing),

I don't recall any defense of lord_hur. But I remember that I found him more likely to be town than Patrick, and then something changed my mind. If you want me to read back, just ask (and mention the page number).

I also think the divided-hypoclaim idea in post 741 is pure confusatory insanity

Say what?

If it is BM controlled, then it can't have a win condition and we should completely ignore it.

I disagree. He can have a win condition, but it probably has nothing to do with eliminating the town or the scum, as he knows who's town and scum. I do agree that we should ignore him for now, he didn't answer my questions anyway.

[TonyMontana]

Well you miss that multiple people claimed to have 'targeted' you - meaning if you were scum you wouldn't know for sure which person was responsible.

True

[Battle Mage]

Vote Count

TonyMontana 4 (Forbiddanlight, Lawrencelot, Landlord, BionicChop)
Lawrencelot 2 (Mr. Flay, TonyMontana)

Not Voting: Elvis Knits, Farside22, Korlash, Surye, Killa Seven

With 11 alive, 6 votes will lynch. You have just over 7 days to reach a decision, else the day will end without a lynch.

BM

[Mr. Flay]

Lawrencelot defended lord_hur on the crucial Day 3B (after the bombing),

I don't recall any defense of lord_hur. But I remember that I found him more likely to be town than Patrick, and then something changed my mind. If you want me to read back, just ask (and mention the page number).

No need; as someone else pointed out later, there's not really a significant chance of you being on the same scumteam as lord_hur, so disregard that line. I was typing as I read...

I also think the divided-hypoclaim idea in post 741 is pure confusatory insanity

Say what?

It didn't make any sense. More importantly, it looked like it was

designed

to make no sense, to confuse the issue of the hypoclaim and either buy more time before it came about, or make it unworkable entirely.

[elvis_knits]

My reason for leaning to Tony is I know what a role blocker does and I know a role blocker targeted Tony.

Not even I

knows

for certain that fonz actually blocked me.

We actually do know for certain that fonz blocked you since he claimed it before he died and we know he was a blocker.

So... yes. He blocked you.

The thing we don't know for sure is if fonz's block is responsible for the no-kill night. But he did most certainly block you, and you saying it's not certain makes me very suspicious of you.

[TonyMontana]

All i was saying was that it isn't *fact* until the nightactions are revealed.
Semantics aside, I don't believe that fonz lied.

[farside22]

All i was saying was that it isn't *fact* until the nightactions are revealed.
Semantics aside, I don't believe that fonz lied.

There is no reason for a townie to lie about his action. I think more and more Fonz wanted the hypo claim out just in case something like this happened.

vote: TonyMontana