Open 300 - Mafia on Midol (Town Wins!)

[Crazy]

In the future, Llama should confirm whether a lynch target was one of his cleared innocents or not BEFORE they claim. And then a claim isn't even necessary/helpful.

As for Ranmaru, it doesn't matter, though, since it was clear that Ranmaru wasn't one of Llama's cleared innocents.

@chk - You don't need to have a negative attitude. I read your posts. If you're town, please answer my questions, because it will help me get a read on your thought processes.

Why did you vote SocioPath over numerous other choices? Why did you vote me?

[LlamaFluff]

@Llama:

I've been running through the various scenarios in my head and I actually don't see the harm in outing your innocents. Since you have two, you'll be able to stay one investigation ahead of the scumz even if they decide to start killing them off, plus you'd be tempting them to forgo doc hunting. Also, one of them is already obvious. On the up-side, we know there is no GF and it's pretty clear that your claim is honest: having two more confirmed green will help us quite a bit. With your investigations and my analysis, we might be able to wrap this game up with two lynches.

Im still debating. Not sure if scum chasing my innocents is a good thing or not.

I think tomorrow is where I claim, as it leaves us at ultra worse case scenario at 10 alive, 2 cleared, one 99% clear and a dead doc. Best case 10 alive 4 clear one 99% clear.

Also am I wrong in thinking tomorrow we no lynch and I dont claim if I hit an innocent?

[Ranmaru]

Why do you no longer find me suspicious?

You are still minorly suspicious, but I swapped my scum picks because I'd want the important picks to stick out before I die. Basically, I re-evaluated my reads. (I was wrong)

[Ranmaru]

@Llama:

I've been running through the various scenarios in my head and I actually don't see the harm in outing your innocents. Since you have two, you'll be able to stay one investigation ahead of the scumz even if they decide to start killing them off, plus you'd be tempting them to forgo doc hunting. Also, one of them is already obvious. On the up-side, we know there is no GF and it's pretty clear that your claim is honest: having two more confirmed green will help us quite a bit. With your investigations and my analysis, we might be able to wrap this game up with two lynches.

Im still debating. Not sure if scum chasing my innocents is a good thing or not.

I think tomorrow is where I claim, as it leaves us at ultra worse case scenario at 10 alive, 2 cleared, one 99% clear and a dead doc. Best case 10 alive 4 clear one 99% clear.

Also am I wrong in thinking tomorrow we no lynch and I dont claim if I hit an innocent?

Hmm? I don't understand, why no lynch?

[LlamaFluff]

Makes it odd number of players (good thing), worst case I lose an innocent and gain one upping porportion of confirmed town alive (good thing).

[Crazy]

I don't see the benefit to Llama claiming his innocents at all. IMO they should only be claimed if (a) that person is about to be lynched, or (b) the doc is killed. Llama is totally safe as long as the doc is still alive. I suppose claiming his innocents would help direct scum-hunting, but I don't think that's a big enough bonus in contrast to having confirmed town that the scum don't know about.

I don't feel very strongly about Ranmaru being scum, but he is a safe lynch that has a

reasonable

chance of being scum, and lynching him will keep Llama's innocents as well as the doc and any other potential power roles hidden for now.

[Papa Zito]

@PZ:

I know you're opposed to the above. Is your stance based entirely on general strategy or do you have some reason specific to this situation?

Oh, it's just general strategy. Getting the info from the wagon on confirmed town without having to flip said town.

Again, I don't believe you have that much townieness going for you to ask someone to disprove your scumminess.

I have no idea what this means.

Also am I wrong in thinking tomorrow we no lynch and I dont claim if I hit an innocent?

No lynch can wait right? What's the advantage of doing it early?

Plus Doc may absorb a kill so.


@Thor: So what's your plan then? You've got a wagon and a Ranmaru wagon and there you sit.

[Crazy]

No lynch can wait right? What's the advantage of doing it early?

Plus Doc may absorb a kill so.

If we No Lynch while the Doc is still alive, then Llama gets another investigation. If we don't No Lynch before the doc dies, then we lose that extra investigation.

And the doc better not try to absorb any freakin' kills. Llama is way too valuable for the doc to play WIFOM with his life.

[Crazy]

UNVOTE: chkflip
VOTE: Ranmaru (L-1)

Ranmaru is confirmed non-power role and confirmed not-one-of-Llama's-innocents, and multiple people suspect him. We can safely lynch him now, and if the doc doesn't die tonight, we can NL tomorrow. I think this is the town's best bet.

[Punkin]

I disagree with Crazy's opinion on whether or not Llama claims his innocents. It seems that more information will help us scum-hunt more then it will hinder the scum to not know.For Example, our heads have a date for Sunday (the next time we see each other not in passing) to do a new VCA, and that information would really help when we do it.

Ranmaru, Why did you claim early?
UNVOTE:

Not Ok with a quick hammer, for a few reasons, like...I'd really like to hear from Oman today

[Punkin]

Oh Sorry, meant to
VOTE: Thor
(don't worry honey, I'll play tennis with myself)

[Papa Zito]

If we No Lynch while the Doc is still alive, then Llama gets another investigation. If we don't No Lynch before the doc dies, then we lose that extra investigation.

I'm sure there's math involved here so I'm just gonna say ok.

[Thor665]

@Thor: So what's your plan then? You've got a wagon and a Ranmaru wagon and there you sit.

I think Ran is town...yeah, that will probably mean she's actually scum, but...
Besides, as noted all you're really waiting on is for me to find the time to present my general reads. When I actually force myself to do those I'll drop down a vote, at the moment all I'd do if I did vote would be to vote you - and I suspect I'm not really losing out on any sort of brilliant amazingness beneficial to town by not doing that.

[singersigner]

Mika

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.

Punkin (0):
Cyberbob (0):
Oman (0):
Papa Zito (0):
Ranmaru (5): Cyberbob, LlamaFluff, Cogito Ergo Sum, chkflip, Crazy
Thor665 (5): Papa Zito, Ranmaru, Twilight Sparkle, Plum, Punkin
Plum (0):
chkflip (0):
Cogito Ergo Sum (0):
Llamafluff (0):
Twilight Sparkle (0):
Crazy (0):

Not voting (2): Oman, Thor665

V/LA Thor 5/19-22

Deadline is May 19th, 2011 at 5pm MST.

[Ranmaru]

I disagree with Crazy's opinion on whether or not Llama claims his innocents. It seems that more information will help us scum-hunt more then it will hinder the scum to not know.For Example, our heads have a date for Sunday (the next time we see each other not in passing) to do a new VCA, and that information would really help when we do it.

Ranmaru, Why did you claim early?
UNVOTE:

Not Ok with a quick hammer, for a few reasons, like...I'd really like to hear from Oman today

I didn't claim early, I was at l-1.

[Ranmaru]

Oops. I miscounted... I was at l-3, sorry. I looked at Thor's count and thought I had 5 votes, and counted the next to votes that went on me.

[Ranmaru]

Again, I don't believe you have that much townieness going for you to ask someone to disprove your scumminess.

I have no idea what this means.

You voted Thor because he mentioned you as a scum pick. Did you push for a wagon? Did you provide a case on someone? Why haven't you pressured CES for wagoning on someone he didn't think was scum?

2. You may - Papa Zito, Socio, CES are probably the top three. Frankly everything behind Papa Z feels muddled though, as previously noted.

See, this is why you're prolly scum. According to your worldview:

1. Papa Zito is definitely scum.
2. Nobody else is nearly as scummy/readable as he is.
3. I'm not going to push my lone major scumread at all.
4. I'm not going to ask anyone to bandwagon my lone major scumread with me.
5. I'm not going to provide a case on my lone major scumread, even when directly asked.
6. I'm going to sheep vote on someone who's not in my top 3, muddled as that top 3 may be.

None of this makes sense coming from town.

UNVOTE: Llamafluff
VOTE: Thor665

2) Papa Zito, did you actually forget that Fate died or did you simply not know?

I forgot. I was rereading, saw that question and it triggered a "oh yeah I was gonna ask that" memory because I didn't like the hammer.

Hopefully this weekend I'll have a lot for you all.

You have 10 total posts this game. Most of them are akin to this one. To quote a famous green-skinned legend, post or perish.


Lord Almighty I wish we had a vig.

[Ranmaru]

I disagree with Crazy's opinion on whether or not Llama claims his innocents. It seems that more information will help us scum-hunt more then it will hinder the scum to not know.For Example, our heads have a date for Sunday (the next time we see each other not in passing) to do a new VCA, and that information would really help when we do it.

Ranmaru, Why did you claim early?
UNVOTE:

Not Ok with a quick hammer, for a few reasons, like...I'd really like to hear from Oman today

I think it'd be better to have pressure on them first, so that reactions can be gauged and malcontent can be found. (From the wagons)

Not that I don't like VCA, I would like to learn how to use it so I can use it in the future, but I'd rather the inno's be secret so that they aren't killed at night if confirmed without pressure.

[Ranmaru]

I don't see the benefit to Llama claiming his innocents at all. IMO they should only be claimed if (a) that person is about to be lynched, or (b) the doc is killed. Llama is totally safe as long as the doc is still alive. I suppose claiming his innocents would help direct scum-hunting, but I don't think that's a big enough bonus in contrast to having confirmed town that the scum don't know about.

I don't feel very strongly about Ranmaru being scum, but he is a safe lynch that has a

reasonable

chance of being scum, and lynching him will keep Llama's innocents as well as the doc and any other potential power roles hidden for now.

I agree with you. Again, I'd rather not have confirmed town because they'd be killed at night.

[Ranmaru]

I'm not answering your questions anymore if you don't bother to remember what I said.

This is very anti-town, you have something to hide?

[Ranmaru]

Vote: Papa Zito[/b\

[Ranmaru]

EBWOP:

Vote: Papa Zito

[Thor665]

That's going to be a headbanger.

@Ranny - other than me calling you town, when did I become not a good vote and my claimed #1 a good one? Or am I projecting in thinking this is all about me?

[Punkin]

ZOMG the scumz is gonna kill our townies!

I think y'all missed an important point of my argument. Anyone with two brain cells and an iso button

already knows

who the N1 investigation was. Do you really expect me to talk around it when I'm analyzing the game?

Unless I hear some compelling argument why I should refrain, I plan on greening the "mystery" person's name in my VCA. If Llama wants to start playing his cards closer to his chest now that he's claimed, I guess there's nothing we can do about that, but it seems like a bunch of people falling back on "the right thing to do" without any real reason, and thereby limiting the information we have to work with.

Anyway... Ima go read AGar...

[Punkin]

AGar made aggressive attacks against

Nacho

, Crazy,

NS

and, to a lesser extent,

Sudo

and

SP

. Attacks on Crazy differed from those on the known buddy in that they continued even when the target was under no pressure elsewhere. Major brownies for Crazy. AGar voted all of these players except one confirmed town and didn't vote outside this list. AGar was playing a tight game with very little bussing.

AGar jabbed 11/17 players who were not him. I think the best information to be gained here is the list of people he didn't attack at all: Oman, Ran, Plum, TS, and

Fate

. In fact, the only one of these he mentioned

at all

was Oman, with whom he agreed about a minor point. I'm betting at least one of AGar's buddies is in this list. His interactions with CES were odd in that AGar made one deliberate jab against the slot but otherwise ignored it; scumpoints.

AGar buddied to PZ,

Sudo

, and Llama: brownies to the unconfirmed (as if they need them). He seemed honestly concerned about questioning from Thor, Llama, Cyber, and our slot; more brownies.

AGar called

SP

,

Sudo

, chk, THor, and PZ null; if both buddies aren't in the not-mentioned list, the other one is here.

AGar linked Crazy to both

Nacho

and

NS

. He linked chk to

NS

and, in a less direct way, to himself and

SP

. If the scum knew NS was going under the bus, or even if AGar individually realized that he was during D1, then I'd expect those linked to him to be town across the board. Like I said, tight game, little bussing. Brownies for Crazy and chk.

AGar's views on PZ and chk seemed to shift all over the board, but never to the extreme on either. Not sure what this means except that they are probably of the same alignment. Chk was the only person he credited with a good attack, against town BTW, which seems to indicate chk-town.