Mini #1647: Eine Kleine Nacht-Mord, Game Over


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Post Post #975 (ISO) » Fri Apr 03, 2015 6:53 am

Post by Green Crayons »

In post 973, Untrod Tripod wrote:
In post 969, Green Crayons wrote:
In post 958, Untrod Tripod wrote:I mean

there's a small but nonzero chance that there's two scum left


it wouldn't be a super balanced setup, but....

I don't want to lose right now

I don't follow what you're saying.

there's literally nothing else to say to explain it?

No scum have died. There's at least two scum left. How is there anything but a large and assuredly almost 100% chance of at least 2 scum being left?
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Post Post #976 (ISO) » Fri Apr 03, 2015 11:15 am

Post by Untrod Tripod »

holy moly I thought one scum died

getting this game confused with another one

my apologies
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Post Post #977 (ISO) » Fri Apr 03, 2015 11:15 am

Post by Untrod Tripod »

I guess actually I meant to type three?

I dunno

either way YOU KNOW WHAT I MEANT YOU JERKY SO AND SO
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Post Post #978 (ISO) » Fri Apr 03, 2015 11:35 am

Post by onion »

derangement, i see you vote hopping and i don't like it. what's this noise with FOSing GC? didn't i see one of your reasons for suspecting him is because you suspect TTH? you seemed to swap between targeting TTH to targeting GC pretty damn fast. as far as i can tell, the primary lynch reason against TTH is lurking, but we have a far more prolific lurker than she. If we can get a CBD replacement rolling quickly, and they are even half as good as GC at replacing, i'd have no problems with a policy+kinda sorta scummy lynch on TTH.

but i do have a problem with a GC lynch. that guy's awesome. Bubs was awesome and pro-town, sns was... not town pandering at least, and then GC comes in with amazing cases, data, things that make sense, really pro-town stuff that he really didn't need to do as scum. Sure, the i don't bus thing is irksome, but it ain't all that.

i'm hesitant to go into day 4 with lurkers still present. i really want to fix that. TTH is scummier than CBD only because we have more data on her than the bird. so even though it seems like a better lynch, it isn't really. we should replace one and lynch the other. i won't vote for GC or tripod at this moment.
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Post Post #979 (ISO) » Fri Apr 03, 2015 11:55 am

Post by prawneater »

3 mafia isn't likely, but it doesn't really change anything or merit much conversation. We gotta lynch scum!
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Post Post #980 (ISO) » Fri Apr 03, 2015 12:33 pm

Post by Derangement »

In post 978, onion wrote:derangement, i see you vote hopping and i don't like it. what's this noise with FOSing GC? didn't i see one of your reasons for suspecting him is because you suspect TTH?

Not in the slightest.
Bubs left before he could answer one of my suspicions, and SNS nearly broke my scumdar. :P
I suspect this slot, and I have for a while now.

Now, Crayons' entrance
was
quite impressive, and the way in which he pushed TTH today (my other scumread) made me pause to re-evaluate my position on the two of them.
I expected scum!Crayons would have avoided putting more heat on scum!TTH, and his vote went against that.

So I thought I might have been wrong on Crayons being scum, or on TTH being scum.

The bussing theory is not a reason for my scumread on either of them.
It's the reason why I can be at peace with still having scumreads on
both
at the same time.


As for why I've changed my preference from a TTH lynch to a GC one, I'm seeing a lot less awesome from the player on day three.
His use of self-meta (not bussing in the last five years) as a defence for why he's not scum is
exactly
the kind of argument scum will make, even as they merrily go against said meta.

I may not be very experienced, but I'd say there's an important distinction between behavioural self-meta, where a person knows how they usually react to things as some alignment, or what general impression their play gives the other players, and then there's action-based self-meta, where a person takes or doesn't take a certain kind of action, depending on alignment.

The former is a subtle thing, open to interpretation, and since a lot of it stems from the player's personality, it can be hard to avoid.
A person can be self-aware enough to know they're shy/talkative/sassy as
insert-alignment-here
, but even if they try to avoid that, it can take effort, and they might not be as successful as they hoped.

The latter, on the other hand, comes from an easily changed conscious decision.
If a person's aware they always/never do something as scum, then why
wouldn't
they go against their usual choice of action at times, if they stand to gain from it?

Put simply, if the player
always
respects their own self-imposed meta, then it's a trust-tell, which is an actionable offence on this site.
Otherwise, it's a worthless argument, since that player can and will eventually go against it.

In post 978, onion wrote:
but i do have a problem with a GC lynch. that guy's awesome. Bubs was awesome and pro-town, sns was... not town pandering at least, and then GC comes in with amazing cases, data, things that make sense, really pro-town stuff that he really didn't need to do as scum. Sure, the i don't bus thing is irksome, but it ain't all that.

Then our opinions differ on what GC's alignment is.
Hopefully one of us will be able to convince the other, if GC fails to do it himself. :]

In post 978, onion wrote:i'm hesitant to go into day 4 with lurkers still present. i really want to fix that. TTH is scummier than CBD only because we have more data on her than the bird. so even though it seems like a better lynch, it isn't really. we should replace one and lynch the other. i won't vote for GC or tripod at this moment.

I don't want lurkers around either.
I can understand TTH's meatworld issues, and hope she makes a swift and fruitful return to us later, but am frankly surprised that CDB has not replaced yet.

But I want scum around even less than lurkers, and what I see of GC isn't helping his case.
Is Prawn the only other person who's not smitten by his entrance?
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Post Post #981 (ISO) » Fri Apr 03, 2015 4:06 pm

Post by onion »

but its not a bus, its a first vote. I've been expressing enough doubts about you that scum!GC could have mustered a reason to vote for you instead of bus his buddy. there would be no reason for scum!GC to vote for scum!TTH at that point in the game.
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Post Post #982 (ISO) » Fri Apr 03, 2015 5:00 pm

Post by petroleumjelly »

Day Three Vote Count #4


Green Crayons – 1 – prawneater
TellTaleHeart – 1 – Green Crayons

With
7
alive it takes
4
lynch, and
3
to lynch at deadline. Deadline is
April 8, 2015 at 6:35 AM PST
.

Not Voting - 6 - ChannelDelibird, Derangement, onion, TellTaleHeart, Untrod Tripod

Countdown
: (expired on 2015-04-08 06:35:00)

ChannelDelibird has again been prodded. If no response, will begin looking for another replacement.
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Post Post #983 (ISO) » Fri Apr 03, 2015 5:00 pm

Post by Derangement »

In post 981, onion wrote:I've been expressing enough doubts about you that scum!GC could have mustered a reason to vote for you instead of bus his buddy. there would be no reason for scum!GC to vote for scum!TTH at that point in the game.

I thought so too, at first.

If they were both scum, him voting TTH seems to draw unwanted heat on her, at a time where people were
already
suspecting her, after llama's flip.

But the thing is that there aren't really any new accusations to go with that attention. It's just a vote, at a time when no other votes were on her yet, and I doubt people are hammer-happy enough to lynch TTH while she's not posting, if the deadline is far away. ;)

So the end result is that the vote makes GC seem like he's a different alignment from TTH, without adding any
real
danger.
He'll try to find a reason to suspect someone else, use the time he has to see what accusations stick, or who can't explain themselves clearly enough, and
then
he'll unvote her, in favour of his new target.

End result: TTH is still as safe as she'd be if he hadn't voted for her in the first place, but now people might believe he can't be scum together with her.


If they're
not
both scum, then I find it a lot more difficult to explain why town would post like sns's everything, and GC's , , , which feel like purposeful misinterpretation or nitpicking at best, than it is to explain TTH's lurking, and am prioritising accordingly.

Can you see what GC intended when he made those posts?
Do you agree with the points he's trying to raise in them?
I know that since I'm one of the people he's trying to find an angle on, I'm not in a position to be 100% objective about it, but it feels reach-y. :neutral:
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Post Post #984 (ISO) » Fri Apr 03, 2015 9:47 pm

Post by ChannelDelibird »

Hey guys, I had no idea I'd been gone this long. Team Mafia has warped my sense of mafia time. I'm catching up now and will do a bunch of posts, but FYI I'm talking to pj about a temporary or permanent replacement while I'm away at the UK meet from the 10th-17th.
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Post Post #985 (ISO) » Fri Apr 03, 2015 10:28 pm

Post by ChannelDelibird »

First reaction to the Equinox kill after Llama's death is that it feels like a kill to keep town on its current trajectory, which makes me think that onion might be town as one of the more constant background lynch options for a while.
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Post Post #986 (ISO) » Fri Apr 03, 2015 10:31 pm

Post by ChannelDelibird »

In post 924, onion wrote:-=Cogito List=- (017)
ChannelDelibird
Equinox (town)
GuyInFreezer (town)
LlamaFluff (town)
Untrod Tripod

That's a point against CBD right there.


Still wouldn't have killed CES on Night 1 for fun reasons.
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Post Post #987 (ISO) » Fri Apr 03, 2015 10:39 pm

Post by ChannelDelibird »

I'm concerned about Derangement just because it feels like almost nobody ever has expressed any concern about Derangement, with bussing discouraged if there are only two scum.
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Post Post #988 (ISO) » Fri Apr 03, 2015 10:51 pm

Post by ChannelDelibird »

The way in which sns replaced out bugs me. He paints a picture when he leaves of just not being connected to the game, but his early posts, in which he got adamant and sweary and passionate about stuff, don't seem to jive with his claimed later mentality of reading but never being up to posting. I'm not super-excited by GC's coming in and rattling hard on onion and Llama, either - the case posts are impressively put together but I find the Llama stuff relatively unconvincing (accepting that hindsight is involved, obviously), as if GC thinks that all we need is the push of a long and well-formatted post to get us to finally do the things we've been threatening for a while.

That's part of why GC feels different to me here than he did in my most recent experience of playing with him, as town in Murder on the Oriental Express. I'm struggling to articulate quite how so, but I guess I'd put it as that I'm not getting quite the same level of conviction from him here as I did there.

The vote on me then immediate change-of-mind switch to TTH, though, is something that gives me pause. That feels like something that's less likely to come from scum, who are likely to spend longer deciding what they want to do before they post it.
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Post Post #989 (ISO) » Fri Apr 03, 2015 11:01 pm

Post by ChannelDelibird »

UT feels solidly town to me. While it could be that Llama got unlucky in picking whichever scum didn't do the kill, UT's speculation about the kills being an indictment of his reads feels doesn't feel like scum doing a self-conscious bit to fuck with us.
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Post Post #990 (ISO) » Fri Apr 03, 2015 11:01 pm

Post by ChannelDelibird »

EBWOP

In post 989, ChannelDelibird wrote:UT feels solidly town to me. While it could be that Llama got unlucky in picking whichever scum didn't do the kill, UT's speculation about the kills being an indictment of his reads doesn't feel like scum doing a self-conscious bit to fuck with us.
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Post Post #991 (ISO) » Fri Apr 03, 2015 11:12 pm

Post by ChannelDelibird »

In post 978, onion wrote:as far as i can tell, the primary lynch reason against TTH is lurking, but we have a far more prolific lurker than she. If we can get a CBD replacement rolling quickly, and they are even half as good as GC at replacing, i'd have no problems with a policy+kinda sorta scummy lynch on TTH.


Er, what? One person is lurking worse than another, so we should replace the worst lurker and policy lynch the second-worst? What?
What?
Either lurking is scummy, in which case you should want to lynch the fuck out of me (or even my replacement!), or it's not and you shouldn't want either of us lynched, or want both of us replaced, or something.
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Post Post #992 (ISO) » Fri Apr 03, 2015 11:16 pm

Post by ChannelDelibird »

I guess a bunch of people have started to express suspicion of Derangement after all, btw.
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Post Post #993 (ISO) » Fri Apr 03, 2015 11:28 pm

Post by ChannelDelibird »

I've spent the last few minutes trying to figure out TTH and I'm struggling to pin down how I feel. I might need to reread the game in full, but I'm wary of confirmation bias. I went back to have a look at my early suspicion of her and I feel like I was onto something; her final response to it feels like it's put together in retrospect to fit things together rather than truly making sense as a natural explanation for her behaviour.

She also goes in oddly hard on Llama at the start of Day 2 and then kinda disappears to let us (y'all, I suppose, if I'm being honest) get on with it, until she gets wagoned herself. The sticking point for me is a post like this, on which I feel like I should be able to get a handle as coming from some combination of (town who genuinely believes she's going to die and needs to pass on what she can before she dies/town who believes there's a chance of saving herself but that she might need to deliberately towntell a bit to swing it back away from her/scum who genuinely believes she's going to die and wants to set up some WIFOM for Day 3 on a player in Llama whom she knows is town/scum who believes that a genuine-looking 'final words' thing can swing the lynch back to Llama). But I can't decide which I think is more likely, beyond a suspicion that the first of the four seems to fit the least well.

I guess I'm probably looking at either a GC or TTH vote Today. I will probably look at Derangement in more detail later, but I think I would be a bit surprised if there weren't at least one scum in (GC, TTH).
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Post Post #994 (ISO) » Sat Apr 04, 2015 1:49 am

Post by Green Crayons »

In post 980, Derangement wrote:Put simply, if the player always respects their own self-imposed meta, then it's a trust-tell, which is an actionable offence on this site.

:roll:

Never doing a thing that hurts your alignment is a trust tell?

Jesus.

Fine.

It is conceivable that I would bus a buddy as scum, but I will most likely, almost always, never do so as scum, but that possibility still exists.

It's still a bad assumption to base a theory off of.
"This Court has never held that the Constitution forbids the execution of a convicted defendant who has had a full and fair trial but is later able to convince a habeas court that he is 'actually' innocent." In re Davis, 557 U.S. 952, 955 (2009) (Scalia, J., dissenting).
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Post Post #995 (ISO) » Sat Apr 04, 2015 1:50 am

Post by Green Crayons »

In post 993, ChannelDelibird wrote:I guess I'm probably looking at either a GC or TTH vote Today. I will probably look at Derangement in more detail later, but I think I would be a bit surprised if there weren't at least one scum in (GC, TTH).

You and prawn both.

Hop to it, this day has taken forever.
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Post Post #996 (ISO) » Sat Apr 04, 2015 1:52 am

Post by Green Crayons »

In post 995, Green Crayons wrote:
In post 993, ChannelDelibird wrote:I guess I'm probably looking at either a GC or TTH vote Today. I will probably look at Derangement in more detail later, but I think I would be a bit surprised if there weren't at least one scum in (GC, TTH).

You and prawn both.

Hop to it, this day has taken forever.

But your catchup insight is well appreciated, as always.

CDB catchup feels like his play in our previous game. So that's also in his favor for being town.
"This Court has never held that the Constitution forbids the execution of a convicted defendant who has had a full and fair trial but is later able to convince a habeas court that he is 'actually' innocent." In re Davis, 557 U.S. 952, 955 (2009) (Scalia, J., dissenting).
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Post Post #997 (ISO) » Sat Apr 04, 2015 12:13 pm

Post by onion »

i guess you'll forever be CBD in my head, no matter how many times i correct my posts. sorry. I don't actually suspect the delibird, because i don't think anything of him because i have no read because he lurks. the most recent flow of posts is very heartening, and if he keeps it up i see no reason to lynch him until he does something scummy. his most recent posts are not scummy.

that means one lurker left.

Ghostvote: TTH
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Post Post #998 (ISO) » Sun Apr 05, 2015 10:40 pm

Post by ChannelDelibird »

I was sort of hoping to hear more from people over the weekend but think I'm more interested in this right now.

VOTE: Green Crayons
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Post Post #999 (ISO) » Mon Apr 06, 2015 10:54 am

Post by Green Crayons »

FTR I was wanting you to hop to voting TTH, but okay.

Anything to make this day end.
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