Mini 739 ~ Mafia Jailbreak, Game Over

[Rhinox]

I guess the biggest issue I am having is that everybody is making hunting for these different types of scum as mutually exclusive. How would you know if a player you thought was scum was primary or secondary mafia?

I wouldn't, but it wouldn't matter... wait, are we arguing the same thing again?

Right now, if I think a player is scummy, it doesn't matter if they're scum-1, scum-2, or sk. Once we know (if) there are multiple evil factions, then it could be possible to hunt for the different scum differently based on different connections... For example, I think an sk would like to set up a last day situation where the town is convinced they need to find a mafian and are looking for a mafia connection instead of trying to find an sk. Thats why its ok to hunt for different killing elements, but only after we know they exist. However...

On the flip of all that, if we do determine there is a SK, I think these first 3 pages of players expressing opinions on if we should / should not hunt for a SK (even though that was not the original topic) will prove to have a good chunk of information. If we had waited until we knew one existed, it may have been too late for town.

I see your point here, and its not invalid... however, my pessimistic mind instead thinks that the last 3 pages is instead chock full of info for a potential sk to alter their playstyle in a way that makes it more difficult for the town, plus possibly be able to use that info to frame someone.

I can see your point here. I didn't expect you to make a point by point outline on SK play though. I do know from your play in the ongoing game that you aren't just going to outline your full thoughts and you are cautious of what information you reveal.

So, you're saying that I'm consistent between the two games, at least in that one regard... what do you think that means?

Anti-town doesn't equal scummy. Why do you think scum would have more motivation to self-vote? What would they achieve by that? If you agree there's no motivation either way, why do you insist on voting for it, since it's a nulltell?

I've never actually lynched someone for self-voting in the random stage, but if my auto-voting everybody who self votes gets them to not do it again, then thats reason enough for me to keep doing it I agree, its basically just a null tell that should be ignored, but most players don't ignore it, which encourages players to continue this (IMO) bad strategy. So I argue against it to subvert it.

This I agree with. But do you really think an anti-town action should be punished with a lynch if it is clear that it is not scummy (as in scum have no more motivation to do it than town)?

No, which is why I crossed out the lynched part and tried to make a joke. But most if not all lynch wagons do start with a single anti-town comment...

[Rhinox]

What walks on four legs at first, then at two, and then finally on three?

hehe... I know the answer

[Vi]

Vote Count:

bionicchop2 (L-5) ~

iamausername,

popsofctown, Rhinox
Korts (L-5) ~ iamausername, OhGodMyLife

Rhinox (L-6) ~ Jahudo,

OhGodMyLife

SpyreX (L-6) ~ bionicchop2
RedCoyote (L-6) ~ SpyreX
Rishi (L-6) ~ RedCoyote
popsofctown (L-6) ~ Korts

Minimum (L-7)

Not Voting:

Huntress, My Milked Eek, Rishi

First Deadline Review: Feb 14 2009
Current Deadline: Feb 18 2009

-----

This new avatar works well with the flavor.
Also, pops' riddles are easy

[RedCoyote]

But my point is... unless there are sk kills, there is no reason to suspect an sk, nor hunt for one. If there are extra kills tomorrow, we'll know. If an sk doesn't kill to hide his identity, then ultimately that is better for the town since the game would be balanced for 2 evil kills per night (at least at the start), and by not killing the SK is guarenteeing that extra town roles will live longer.

I think it's the more risky approach to dismiss the probability of an SK in the game, but I understand your argument.

We know nothing that would indicate the probability for us.

Mmm... I just don't see what makes y'all so sure that an SK would be more improbable than not. Rhinox is misunderstanding me, I'm not advocating we concentrate solely on the SK by any means, I'm saying that because it's a valid possibility, we should take it into any planning considerations until we're in a better position to predict the roles in the setup. I don't think that's an unfair stance to take.

This is a bit of stating the obvious. An extra kill confirms a SK. A single kill leaves us where we are today.

I forget sometimes that I don't have to lecture anyone at MS.

I always try to function under worst-case scenarios. In this game that would be 3 mafia and 1 SK based on the role PMs (mafia is 2-3 members from the wording).

That's my point exactly. I'd go so far as to say I think it's

anti

-town to plan the game around the idea that the SK was just an additional role thrown into the list.

I'm not saying that the scum don't also have incentive in keeping the SK idea alive and well to take the heat off of them, but to go as far as to say "why worry about an SK today?" makes me nervous.

To make my point more clear, I'm just saying that I think we should assume there is at least 3 scum in our game. Period.

On day one, there is nothing to gain for town from discussing the possibility of an SK.

I disagree, using bionic as a springboard here,

I will state again that I have trouble seeing how hunting for an SK would actually differ from hunting for a mafia player on D1.

The town should add an additional scum to all calculations made from this point until we can state with some probability that there is

not

one around.


Anyways, I think we've beat just about all the life out of the SK argument.

---

Your pops vote stinks of "throwing the book at him looks protown," and since that one questionable infraction you voted him for I haven't seen anything else from you which looked in any way like you're really trying to determine his alignment.

Whether this is true or not, do you consider what pops admitted to,

I'm trying to join the talk-about-nothing-like-you're-getting-paid club.

to be scummy? Actually, anyone is welcome to answer this, I want to see more discussion over Korts v pops.

[OhGodMyLife]

RC, no, I thought it was pretty clear pops was making a joke. I actually agree with him that people were talking-about-nothing-like-they're-getting-paid up to that point, and to an extent since then. There's a lot of fluff and theory discussion going on in this thread, and from my experience all theory discussion ever does in games is give scum a nice, cozy place to hide while the real action goes on around them.

Korts, throwing the book as in, your response seemed to be almost automated. "You have made a move that I consider to be standard-scum-play so here is my standard-response-vote!" It was like you didn't even consider the surroundings of pops' post, or weigh whether or not it really hinted at his alignment, you just went OMG SCUMTELL.

[Rhinox]

@RC...

I (and everyone else) are well aware that an sk is possible in the game. I am not arguing we should discount the possibility of an sk, I am arguing that continually insisting there is more probably an sk is doing nothing to help us find scum today... but I'll let you prove me wrong: How is assuming the worst case scenario that there is an sk going to help us catch scum today? How is talking about the presence of an sk today going to help us catch scum any other day?

Regarding Korts vs. Pops, I don't find pops' jokes, or the talk about nothing comment to be scummy, but I'm still uneasy about the WIFOM analysis of bio post: especially the part where he said he was leaning more towards bios comments being indicative of mafia because "it sounded like something he would do as mafia"

Pops: Anything you can divine from from the rest of the conversation about sks?what do you think of RC's comments about SK? What do you think about mine? What about OGML's?

[Rishi]

Okay. Caught up. Wow. A whole lot of nothing in this thread so far. I'll just make some random observations.

I've played with MME a couple times before, and this is usually how he plays - doesn't say much, keeps promising to post later, and then gets replaced.

He's a good player when he actually plays though. As for him confirming without voting - almost all games on this site (I would say 99%) have a confirmation stage before Day 1 and won't actually start until all players have confirmed. So I understand why he had no other content in his post. I guess my question for MME is this - did you notice from the posts above your confirmation vote that others started playing? If so, why didn't you start playing as well?

So, let's humor RedCoyote for a second and say that we'll be able to tell on Day 1 that there's an SK and, furthermore, that we will be able to distinguish the SK from Mafia. (IMHO, SK is scum - we don't worry about factions until we have some information to build connections.) So, RC, what planning should we do for the SK? How should this town prepare itself? If you're going to throw out the possibility, then you must have something in mind. Unless you keep touching on the SK to hide the fact that you are the SK.

pops - Jokes are fine in the RVS. But wouldn't you say we're out of it now? Why are you continuing with the jokes?

And I completely agree with OGML. Theory is totally an easy way for scum to look active without arousing suspicion. We can discuss theory until the cows (or h-cows) come home, but we won't be any closer to a lynch when we're done.

[popsofctown]

what the crap!! i killed my post ((

@Rhinox (again, ugh)

RC is saying that we should assume the worst until better is proven. Ok, sure. The way he discusses it though is not as curt it should be though, which gives me a slight scum vibe. I've decided to read this player mostly on meta, because when i read him just like everyone else he consistently slips by, so i might be using poorly explained reasons some this game, i'll try to be glass man like Korts as much as possible though.

Rhinox says we can't really hunt an SK specifically today, so who cares. Ok, sure. Don't really get an alignment vibe from him. I'll have him know that Natirasha totally won a game with his self-vote once though. It's a legit strat.

OGML has his head on the ground, basically, the SK discussion itself isn't going to do anything positive. He kinda seems towner than not.


@Rishi- i was continuing with the jokes to make a point to Korts. They're actually riddles but everyone's letting me call them jokes since i needed to make a point and couldn't think of a joke. Such nice people here. This joke is just to spite Rishi:
What has mail, never clinking,
A mouth, always drinking,
And two eyes, never blinking?

[bionicchop2]

I am going to

unvote; vote Rishi

after post 81.

- downplays the beginning game conversation to be about nothing
- seems to defend MME who isn't even being attacked or commented about. Perhaps to remind others that MME is currently not posting, while he buddies him
- after saying there is a whole lot of nothing, decides to add to what he called nothing by continuing SK talk (I have no issue with SK talk obviously, but find it hypocritical that someone claiming it is nothing add fuel to the flames)
- Then agrees with OGML for saying the theory discussion is pointless, meanwhile the 'theory' discussion about SKs and hunting is exactly what he is asking RC about.

[Rhinox]

RC is saying that we should assume the worst until better is proven. Ok, sure. The way he discusses it though is not as curt it should be though, which gives me a slight scum vibe. I've decided to read this player mostly on meta, because when i read him just like everyone else he consistently slips by, so i might be using poorly explained reasons some this game, i'll try to be glass man like Korts as much as possible though.

My question still stands, but I'll rephrase it: how does assuming the worst until proven better help us catch scum today, or any other day? I'll also add on: hypothetically, its day 5. 3 mafia goons have already been killed, but the game continues. There has been 1 kill every night. How do we hunt for the final scum? Do we still assume there is an sk since we haven't been proven otherwise (sk could have targetted the same player as scum every night) and hunt accordingly, or do we assume that 1 kill per night means that only mafia is left and look for mafia connections? Or do we just vote for whoever we think is the scummiest, without worrying about what faction they're a part of? Also, your jumping to the defense of RC without letting him answer questions directed at him himself, is noted.

I've decided to read this player mostly on meta, because when i read him just like everyone else he consistently slips by,

so i might be using poorly explained reasons some this game

, i'll try to be glass man like Korts as much as possible though.

I don't like this post at all... why are you coming up with excuses for future use of poorly explained reasoning?

I'll have him know that Natirasha totally won a game with his self-vote once though. It's a legit strat.

Was he scum? if so, that only supports my policy of voting self-voters in the RVS. If he was town, please link me the game so I can see how a self-vote in the RVS was directly responsible for a town win...

also,

unvote: bio

because I don't find him scummy.

vote: pops

. currently most scummy IMO.

[Rishi]

I am going to

unvote; vote Rishi

after post 81.

- downplays the beginning game conversation to be about nothing
- seems to defend MME who isn't even being attacked or commented about. Perhaps to remind others that MME is currently not posting, while he buddies him
- after saying there is a whole lot of nothing, decides to add to what he called nothing by continuing SK talk (I have no issue with SK talk obviously, but find it hypocritical that someone claiming it is nothing add fuel to the flames)
- Then agrees with OGML for saying the theory discussion is pointless, meanwhile the 'theory' discussion about SKs and hunting is exactly what he is asking RC about.

1. I didn’t say the entire beginning game conversation was about nothing. But, considering we’ve had four pages and some very long posts, there’s a lot less content than it would seem.
2. People have commented on MME. If you say that no one is “currently” discussing MME, then you mean that no one mentioned him in half a page. Some of us don’t really have time to post five times a day. It was relevant conversation since the thread began – and since I haven’t had a real post in the game so far, I felt that I needed to say something.
3. I explained what I meant by “a whole lot of nothing.” I didn’t say that everything that came up was completely irrelevant. Obviously, it wasn’t, or I would have had a really short post. As I said, it’s just that the content-to-text ratio in this game seems low so far.
4. Theory discussion is not pointless (stop putting words in my mouth – and here’s a “theory” term for you: “strawmanning”) – it’s just easy for scum to hide in it. I am just wary when theory discussion goes on too long. As for asking questions to RC, how about you let him answer the questions before you jump to his defense and attempt to derail the conversation? Did you even think that maybe I might be going somewhere with this? I’ll make my point after RC responds.

Rhinox – You’re currently not suspicious of bionicchop, even after this last post? Interesting.

Alright. Back to work. Likely won’t be able to post again before tomorrow.

[OhGodMyLife]

FoS: Rhinox

[bionicchop2]

2. People have commented on MME. If you say that no one is “currently” discussing MME, then you mean that no one mentioned him in half a page. Some of us don’t really have time to post five times a day. It was relevant conversation since the thread began – and since I haven’t had a real post in the game so far, I felt that I needed to say something.

Without reading back, tell me the last time MME was mentioned and what was mentioned about him. Then communicate the relevance of your comment to the previous discussion that occurred about him. IMO you defended a player who was not under (expressed) suspicion.

3. I explained what I meant by “a whole lot of nothing.” I didn’t say that everything that came up was completely irrelevant. Obviously, it wasn’t, or I would have had a really short post. As I said, it’s just that the content-to-text ratio in this game seems low so far.

Oddly I find this game chock full of early game content. We are on page 4 and already have at least 3 different players getting voted for reasons that aren't random.

4. Theory discussion is not pointless (stop putting words in my mouth – and here’s a “theory” term for you: “strawmanning”) – it’s just easy for scum to hide in it. I am just wary when theory discussion goes on too long. As for asking questions to RC, how about you let him answer the questions before you jump to his defense and attempt to derail the conversation? Did you even think that maybe I might be going somewhere with this? I’ll make my point after RC responds.

When something is paraphrased / interpreted, it is implicitly understood the person did not make that exact statement.

We can discuss theory until the cows (or h-cows) come home, but we won't be any closer to a lynch when we're done.

When the goal of the day is to come to a decision on a lynch and you say the topic of discussion does not work towards that goal, I feel comfortable paraphrasing it as 'pointless'. If that wasn't your intent, feel free to clarify.

How am I not letting RC answer? Where did I say we shouldn't discuss the topic you were discussing? My comment was you were being hypocritical. Maybe you failed to read any of my other posts, but I have not avoided the SK discussion and in fact I *gasp* started it in an attempt to engage Rhinox. Since you are fond of the term 'strawmanning', isn't that what you are doing when you misrepresent any part of my post as defending RC?

[Rhinox]

Rhinox – You’re currently not suspicious of bionicchop, even after this last post? Interesting.

Actually, I typed up my post without considering 83 (it was sort of a cross post - it takes me a while to type posts since I'm at work and I only type a sentence at a time in between doing my job )

After I previewed, I noticed bio's post, read it, and decided it didn't change my view on bio.

Also, I said I didn't find bio scummy - not that I didn't find him suspicious. I still don't like the sk talk, and I'm not sure I agree with all of his reasonings for voting you, but I don't see anything scummy about it, or inconsistent with the play and opinions bio has already established. Also, any suspicions I have of bio (or RC) for continuing the sk theory discussion are currently being overshadowed by pops 82, and his riddles.

[popsofctown]

[quote="RhinoxRegarding Korts vs. Pops, I don't find pops' jokes, or the talk about nothing comment to be scummy[/quote]

Also, any suspicions I have of bio (or RC) for continuing the sk theory discussion are currently being overshadowed by pops 82,

and his riddles

.

Did they become suspicious when you decided you could make up a full case?

The thing about me pre-emptively saying my reasoning against RC might be poorly explained is more or less fair. I probably shouldn't say something like that, but instead just explain on each instance the meta-significance of why i might find him suspicious, try to explain how it rel.ates to my other game with him, etc.

Natirasha was town in the game i referenced, i'll try to find it for Rhinox. It directly lead to lots of suspicioun on my scumpartner, which pressured us into a gambit, which lost us the game due to a technicality.

[popsofctown]

http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... t=carbon14

[Rhinox]

Did they become suspicious when you decided you could make up a full case?

crap. I've been doing this a lot recently... saying what I don't mean...

My vote on you was mostly because of post 82, and the riddles are just starting to piss me off only because I didn't get the last one. In all seriousness, the last one "to spite Rishi" is kind of just uncalled for and pointless, since you already explained why you were giving us riddles (to mock korts, basically). Continuing to do so no longer serves a purpose.

[OhGodMyLife]

Continuing to do so no longer serves a purpose.

But it made a convenient excuse for you to policy vote him, didn't it scum?

[Rhinox]

Policy vote? I don't think I would call it that...

RC is saying that we should assume the worst until better is proven. Ok, sure. The way he discusses it though is not as curt it should be though, which gives me a slight scum vibe.

Here pops jumps to RC's defense after I asked RC questions, whithout giving RC a chance to answer the questions himself. In the same paragraph, however, its giving him a slight scum vibe. This sounds like fence-sitting, and a bad attempt at distancing.

I've decided to read this player mostly on meta, because when i read him just like everyone else he consistently slips by, so i might be using poorly explained reasons some this game, i'll try to be glass man like Korts as much as possible though.

I've already explained what I don't like about this part of the post.

Thats pretty much it. Its not much, but its more to go on IMO than the other discussions right now (sks, not voting, and self voting). Afterall, as my wise IC guide once told me way back in my first game:

Early in the game, the threshold for earning my vote is necessarily lower than later on when we've got more to go on.

I probably shouldn't have added in the riddles part, but its interesting to watch my argument get strawmaned for it.

What about my vote makes you call it a "policy vote"?

Also, do you agree with pops and korts about their views on self-voting?

[Korts]

Not a lot of time; will post tomorrow.

[bionicchop2]

Rhinox - The quote you have of pops talking about RC labels RC as slightly scummy. My interpretation is that he has no problem with RC saying we should assume the worst, but he feels he dwelled on the issue too long ("not as not as curt it should") which is what gave him the scum vibe.

Is that how you read the statement, or are you getting something else out of it?

[bionicchop2]

EBWOP:

("not as curt as it should be")

[OhGodMyLife]

Rhinox, you're completely ignoring Korts. Why?

And as for opinions on self-voting, nobody self-voted in this game, and a given player's opinion on self-voting tends to not change from game to game and is therefore not diagnostic, so I really don't care one way or the other what pops, korts or anyone else has to say on the topic. Its a bunch of noise.

Wise IC guide in newbie 645

That must have been Prof. Guppy, because I can't think of any other ICs in that game who could be considered wise

[bionicchop2]

Not a lot of time; will post tomorrow.

FOS Korts

I find this post unnecessary and possibly active lurking. You weren't in danger of being prodded and your activity was not in question. This gives me the impression you weren't participating as much as you felt you should be and needed to pro-actively address it. Not exactly a scum tell, but it has a self-preservation feel to it.

Combine this with the fact you are still on the site right now posting in general discussion and mafia discussion. That is time which could have been used to quickly skim and post something of relevance here.

[Rhinox]

Is that how you read the statement, or are you getting something else out of it?

Actually, I think I need a word-a-day calander, because thats not how I interpretted "curt".

I interpretted the statement: "RC is saying that we should assume the worst until better is proven. Ok, sure. The way he discusses it though is not as curt it should be though, which gives me a slight scum vibe."

as: "RC is saying that we should assume the worst until better is proven. What's wrong with that? Although, he's discussing it in a way that sounds scummy"

Regardless, I don't think it changes anything, unless pops can tell me that the paragraph in question had any point other than to defend/answer for RC, while calling him scummy, but preparing us for future "my meta on RC makes me think he is scum/town" comments that are poorly reasoned.

Also, EBWOP: Add in my general dislike of pops WIFOM post analyzing bio into 93... I forgot to mention it in that post, and that also falls under the "Why I'm currently voting Pops" category.

Also, premptive EBWOP for crossposts:

Rhinox, you're completely ignoring Korts. Why?

Well, maybe I haven't been giving korts as much attention as others, but I wouldn't say I'm ignoring him - at least not intentionally. There are other players I haven't directly commented on as well, so unless there is some reason I should specifically be paying attention to korts, I don't see the problem...

unless korts asked me a question I've missed, in which case my previous paragraph will look kinda silly then.

That must have been Prof. Guppy, because I can't think of any other ICs in that game who could be considered wise

now now... we both know Prof. Guppy can and has been called a lot of things... Wise was never one of them