Mini 779 - Killer in Smalltown Y - Over

[Y]

Richard can't be SK since he was blocked (unless Tina were lying about blocking him which looks unlikely to me)?

I would lie for him only if we were both mafia, ruling him out as the SK anyway.

Top of the page vote count:

Tina has 3 votes

(Richard, John, Misty)
Richard has 1 vote (Tina)
5 are not voting (Bruce, Charles, Mary Rose, Tom, Vicki)
9 alive, eh, 5 to lynch.

[Hypatia]

(Possible players who made the scum kill: Misty, John, Mary Rose, Bruce, Charles, Vicki. Did not make the scum kill: Tina (roleblocked Richard), Richard (was blocked), Tom (saw Richard).)

I concur. Why didn't you block one of the killing roles to prevent scum from getting a free kill?

What killing roles (Besides Mary/Rose, who isn't exactly a killer)? I suppose you know of any I don't?

QFT, 'killing roles' plural is an interesting slip. Like Tina, I only see the one killing role listed, Mary Rose (and that's why I kidnapped her). What did you have in mind, Misty?

Mary finds it interesting that Mary Rose is in your first list of possible players who made the scum kill, even though you claim to have kidnapped us and to believe that Tina roleblocked Richard (therefore, did not block you). So if you're telling the truth you would have firsthand knowledge that we could not have made the scum kill; but it's not in your first list, even though you reiterate your claim in the "killing roles" paragraph. Why didn't you rule Mary Rose out?

Rose doesn't particularly think you're scum just because you kidnapped us; as you say it's prudent to kidnap us in order to keep the body count from piling up. But if Rose were scum Mary Rose would be the one to kidnap; it's got a plausible reason; it's not as scummy looking as kidnapping the watcher or tracker; and it's the one that can try to kill off scum.

--Mary Rose

[Y]

First of all, I'm sorry to inform you and the other you that the post is very confusing, and it was hard for me to understand what you were trying to say (And I'm not completely sure I did).

From what I did understand, you're asking why you weren't ruled out as the killer if you were blocked? If so, Vicki did put you on the unlikely list both as the SK and mafia killer. That said, you can still be mafia, but not the one who made the kill.

[Hypatia]

First of all, I'm sorry to inform you and the other you that the post is very confusing, and it was hard for me to understand what you were trying to say (And I'm not completely sure I did).

I'll rephrase: I should have been clearer. And I am talking to Imaginality aka Charles the kidnapper.

I find it interesting that I am in your first list of possible players who made the scum kill, even though you claim to have kidnapped me and to believe that Tina roleblocked Richard (therefore, did not block you). So if you're telling the truth you would have firsthand knowledge that I could not have made the scum kill; but it's not in your first list, even though you reiterate your claim in the "killing roles" paragraph. Why didn't you rule me out?

I don't particularly think you're scum just because you kidnapped me; as you say it's prudent to kidnap me in order to keep the body count from piling up. But if I were scum my role would be the one to kidnap; it's got a plausible reason; it's not as scummy looking as kidnapping the watcher or tracker; and it's the one that can try to kill off scum.

From what I did understand, you're asking why you weren't ruled out as the killer if you were blocked? If so, Vicki did put you on the unlikely list both as the SK and mafia killer.

Oh yes,

Vicki/Tarhalindur

ruled me out later. But why didn't

Charles/imaginality

do so in his early list, especially since he would have firsthand knowledge that I couldn't possibly have killed? Instead he puts me as a possible mafia killer. Which I can't be if he kidnapped me.

Because if I were Charles/imaginality trying to find the killer, it would go like this:

* Tina, Richard, and Tom seem (assuming they're not lying) to be verified as doing other night actions. So they're not the mafia killer.
* Tina roleblocked Richard, so she did not roleblock me.
* I kidnapped Mary Rose, so she couldn't have done a night action.
* So Mary Rose could not be the mafia killer.

The last two are things that CHARLES HIMSELF claims to have done, so why wouldn't they figure prominently in his logic?

But if, for example, Charles/imaginality was scum who hadn't actually roleblocked me, but only claimed to (after all, I chose not to target anyone, and there doesn't seem to be a missing kill, and there's no stabbing kill), then he might forget what he claimed to do, and leave me off his list.

That said, you can still be mafia, but not the one who made the kill.

Yup, there's no evidence yet ruling me out as a mafia member.

[imaginality]

But why didn't Charles/imaginality do so in his early list, especially since he would have firsthand knowledge that I couldn't possibly have killed? Instead he puts me as a possible mafia killer. Which I can't be if he kidnapped me.

(Possible players who made the scum kill: Misty, John, Mary Rose, Bruce, Charles, Vicki. Did not make the scum kill: Tina (roleblocked Richard), Richard (was blocked), Tom (saw Richard).)

It's worth noticing that I listed

myself

in that list too. Because it's not confirmed (objectively) that I kidnapped you. Obviously I know I did, but there's no independent evidence, and I was writing my list from the viewpoint of the town as a whole, not me independently.

Likewise, I know you were kidnapped, but the rest of the town doesn't know that for sure. So I listed you in the possibles as well.

Obviously, from my perspective I don't think you're the mafia killer, just as I know I'm not the killer. I was just putting a list out there that we could all agree on.

[imaginality]

Oh and I also take issue with:

Rose doesn't particularly think you're scum just because you kidnapped us; as you say it's prudent to kidnap us in order to keep the body count from piling up. But if Rose were scum Mary Rose would be the one to kidnap; it's got a plausible reason; it's not as scummy looking as kidnapping the watcher or tracker; and it's the one that can try to kill off scum.

The 'just because' makes it sound as though my kidnapping you makes you suspicious of me. But your logic is "kidnapping me would be prudent for town to do, so therefore scum would do it to look pro-town." That argument sucks. At most all it means is my kidnapping you is a null tell, if town and scum would be equally likely to do it. (If that's all you meant, then I agree with that. But it sounded to me like you were suspicious of me precisely for doing something pro-town.)

Aside from reducing the potential deaths last night, the other benefit to kidnapping you was keeping you alive so you can make a more informed vig choice tonight.

[Y]

Don't forget that Mary Rose isn't a vig nor a doc. It's a 50-50 chance. We can't count on her completely. If we do, we might get a protected scum or a killed townie.

[imaginality]

Yep, I know that, but it makes sense for her to use her role as though she's a 50-50 vig, surely. Though it's not clear to me if she's protective simply by defending her target or by killing the attacker). Mary Rose, which interpretation is correct?

Either way, if she protects rather than kill, at worst the only person at risk from that is the SK or mafia if they try to kill her target. While if she turns nasty, her target is at risk. So while we can't rely on her killing her target - as you say it's a 50-50 chance - in terms of what decisions she should make as to who she targets, I'd say she should act as though she's a vig.

[Y]

That's acceptable.

[malthusis]

Saying 'Oh, those people didn't do an action, they're scum' is fine and all, but don't get too hung up on it right now because are too many people right now (don't forget about looking at past days to help deduce this). I agree that Mary Rose should be used as vig, not a doc (I would not trust a serial maniac to protect me in the night ) that may not be effective. Tina is still dancing around the main question: Why did you block me? I still think she is scum, and I still want to lynch her (and nothing's changed that).

Mod: you realize John's vote counts as 2, so Y is at L-1?

The player whose vote John bought last night has died, eh, and dead people don't vote. The vote count is correct.

[imaginality]

Mod: you realize John's vote counts as 2, so Y is at L-1?

I thought he targeted Kevin? Hard to convince someone to let you vote for them if they're dead, no?


I agree that of the night actions we know about, Tina blocking you is the most anti-town one. (There were several better targets to block, in my opinion: Mary Rose, John, Kevin and Misty.)

It seems like her main defense (see posts 53 and 99) is "I targeted Richard because I thought it likely that one of the two main investigative roles would be scum" - which whether or not it's true seems like a weak reason. Surely we'd have a better chance of figuring out which of Richard and Tom are scum (if either is) if we get results from both of them rather than blocking one? It's not like we're going to naively trust any information that we gain from people's night choices, after all.

if I was scum and I have an investigator, I would send [Richard] to kill because the town trusts him and it's really easy to make up a target

I don't think it's so easy. A lot of players here have targets of their own, so he'd either have to (i) guess who they'd target (ii) fake his result, which seems something of a gambit for day 1, or (iii) target Vicki (our only non-targeting player).

[Hypatia]

Yep, I know that, but it makes sense for her to use her role as though she's a 50-50 vig, surely. Though it's not clear to me if she's protective simply by defending her target or by killing the attacker). Mary Rose, which interpretation is correct?

I assume, judging on my PM, it's just a protection, not a kill of the attacker.

Either way, if she protects rather than kill, at worst the only person at risk from that is the SK or mafia if they try to kill her target. While if she turns nasty, her target is at risk. So while we can't rely on her killing her target - as you say it's a 50-50 chance - in terms of what decisions she should make as to who she targets, I'd say she should act as though she's a vig.

That's the plan.

The 'just because' makes it sound as though my kidnapping you makes you suspicious of me. But your logic is "kidnapping me would be prudent for town to do, so therefore scum would do it to look pro-town." That argument sucks. At most all it means is my kidnapping you is a null tell, if town and scum would be equally likely to do it. (If that's all you meant, then I agree with that. But it sounded to me like you were suspicious of me precisely for doing something pro-town.)

No, my suspicion was aroused by your list that didn't include me. Then I thought: with my newly aroused suspicion, is your kidnapping of me townish or scummish? It could go either way. .

In any case you're either
* a townie who kidnapped me (plausible);
* a mafioso who kidnapped me while someone else did the kill (plausible);
* a mafioso who did the kill, therefore lied about kidnapping me (but is that logical? it seems like the mafia would want you to use your power to block a threat, and send someone else to do the kill--unless the other mafia people have more useful powers);
* or the serial killer who locked me up and did a kill.

#3 would need so many things in place that I think it's actually unlikely, now that I've done more reasoning.

[armlx]

We need to coordinate night actions.

[Hypatia]

We need to coordinate night actions.

Can you please explain why you think the benefits of publicly announced night actions outweigh the drawbacks of giving the scum the entire layout of what will happen?

[armlx]

I never said all actions necessarily have to be publicized. Some should be, and depending on if there is a breaking strategy all should be. At the very least, we should consider whether Bruce should claim target as a pseudo investigation.

For example, one strat would be for the RB to block the 50/50 vig, DDP + me to cross target, lynch Thar, have everyone else use their ability however, and lead with a Watcher + Tracker choice claim. That reveals at least 1 mafia to us, as someone will have to lie about their night action. There are some issues with this:

1. Ends up awkward if no cross kill tonight, but that's regardless.
2. If DDP or myself dies, we aren't proven to have used an ability.
3. Tracker scum can claim to have seen partner's ability.
4. Mafia can no kill, but that's fine.
5. If DDP + myself are town, its REALLY awkward.

Can anyone one up this in some other way or find some major hole in it?

[armlx]

Actually, question. If I silence John, and he coerces my vote, will I have no vote the following day?

[malthusis]

Actually, question. If I silence John, and he coerces my vote, will I have no vote the following day?

Yes. Remember,

Misty, the librarian (played by armlx). She loves silence, that’s why she works at the library. In fact, she knows a special three-point hold that can make a person stop talking for 24 hours. Each night, she will apply her “silence squeeze” to some unsuspecting fool. Her target will be unable to speak,

except to vote,

all day the next day. Only the target will know he’s been silenced, no one else will have a clue.

[armlx]

Good call.

Another note about my plan: the jail keep can't target me, DDP, or the RB.

[Prof. Guppy]

Actually, question. If I silence John, and he coerces my vote, will I have no vote the following day?

Yes. Remember,

Misty, the librarian (played by armlx). She loves silence, that’s why she works at the library. In fact, she knows a special three-point hold that can make a person stop talking for 24 hours. Each night, she will apply her “silence squeeze” to some unsuspecting fool. Her target will be unable to speak,

except to vote,

all day the next day. Only the target will know he’s been silenced, no one else will have a clue.

This.

[imaginality]

I don't see any major holes in your plan, Misty, aside from the "if X and Y are both scum" stuff. Which is kinda hard to avoid with any plan, at this point.

I'm not sure the benefits of aligning our roles outweigh the costs particularly since we need to block kills tonight as much as possible. But if we are going to consider plans, here's an alternative plan I thought of:

We lynch Tina.

Richard stalks Bruce.
Bruce protects someone.
Tom watches Bruce.

I target Mary Rose and vice versa.

John targets Vicki or Bruce (flips a coin).

Misty targets me.

This way:

If Bruce does not protect someone, Richard would know. (Also if Bruce protects someone and dies, Richard would know who Bruce's target was.)
If Richard does not stalk Bruce, Tom would know.
If Tom does not watch Bruce, there is a 50/50 shot of him being caught out depending if John targeted Bruce or not.
If Vicki does not self-watch, there is a 50/50 shot of her being caught out depending if John targeted Vicki or not.
If I do not jail Mary Rose, there is a 50/50 shot of her vigging me.
If Misty does not target me, we will know.
If John does not steal someone's vote, we will know.
Mary Rose cannot kill.

Advantages:
Lynching Tina over lynching Vicki (Tina looks scummier to me).
The scum don't know who Bruce will protect.

Disadvantages: If various pairs of people are scum, it fails.

Note: We could alter the plan above to lynch Mary Rose, and have me and Tina roleblock/jail each other (so if either of us don't roleblock, we will be roleblocked by the other and unable to kill). But I would rather lynch Tina than Mary Rose.

Note2: We could lynch Vicki, and have Tina and Mary Rose target each other, and me jail either John or Misty. Again though, I think Tina is more likely scum than Vicki.

[malthusis]

This looks like it's the best plan (plus we can get away with lynching Tina scum). At least it will block the kill (scum won't reveal themselves) which may be a major hole with any of these types of plans anyway.

[Y]

I did a bad judgement call, I admit it, but I would be much more careful if scum, and not that obvious.

[malthusis]

I did a bad judgement call, I admit it, but I would be much more careful if scum, and not that obvious.

[Hypatia]

About Charles' plan: do we know the order of night actions?

[armlx]

Imag, just one issue

If Vicky is mafia and makes the kill, does she still self watch that night?

Vicki self-watches by using her mirror, which is affixed to her property. She would have to step away from the mirror to execute a scum kill. So, to answer your question, no.