Mini 779 - Killer in Smalltown Y - Over

[armlx]

We aren't progressing towards eliminating the scum without a lynch, with two deaths a night most likely. Seems loose.

Top of the page vote count:

Tina has 3 votes (Richard, Misty, Tom)
Richard has 1 vote (Tina)
1 player is voting for a No Lynch (John)
4 are not voting (Bruce, Charles, Mary Rose, Vicki)
9 alive, eh, 5 to lynch.

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

We aren't progressing towards eliminating the scum without a lynch, with two deaths a night most likely. Seems loose.

Stop evading the question by reciting mafia catechisms and think about this situation at hand. Given these two statements.

1) If we mislynch today then there's a good chance we lose.
2) Coordinated night actions will find scum.

How is a no lynch a bad option, we avoid losing the game immediately and will have caught scum tomorrow and still have a majority with which to lynch them. I know the play runs contrary to conventional wisdom, but that doesn't mean it's wrong.

[Y]

I agree with DDDP.

Lynching blind can end the game with us losing, whyle no lynch help us survive the night. This isn't a regular game. We know what powers we have and who has them. Coordinating night actions helps us progress more than lynching in such a bad situation. I'll join John's question: Why is a lynch better than a night with coordinated actions?

Vote: No Lynch.

You forgot to Unvote

[armlx]

V/LA this weekend starting tomorrow. Not sure exactly which yet, but probably the former.

And obv scum pair thanks.

If we don't lynch right today there's a good chance we lose regardless of no lynch, mislynch, night actions, etc. We don't actually have time on our side in this set up. We have to go for it.

[imaginality]

1) If we mislynch today then there's a good chance we lose. 2) Co-ordinated night actions will find scum.

We don't actually have time on our side in this set up. We have to go for it.

I have to side with Misty about this. At the moment we're 5-3-1.

No-lynching lets scum kill for sure (we can only block two people, there are three scum). Unless Bruce blocks their kill - but if Bruce protects randomly, there is more chance of him dying by protecting, while if he limits his targets in advance by protecting me again since he didn't die last night, it means scum can kill for sure by avoiding targeting me.

And the SK has a 7/9 chance of killing (again assuming Bruce doesn't protect successfully) since they can kill and perform their night action, unless they're blocked, and we can only block two players.

Tina and John being a scum pair would also be incredibly bad for us if we assign Tina to block John. (Similarly Tina and Mary Rose if I kidnap John and Tina is assigned blocks Mary Rose.)

The other problem is that even with the best result (SK no kills, scum kill (two no-kills just leaves us back where we started)) any no-lynch plan we come up with at best has a couple of players who have a chance of guessing right as scum and 'confirming' their action. Or of course of just countering the other player (if one of Bruce and Richard is scum, for example).

So assuming scum are smart, at the very best we have a ~50% chance of lynching scum tomorrow. And various ways we can lose.

Whereas lynching today (even if we say for the sake of argument that it's a random lynch) we have 4/9 chance of lynching scum/SK (44%, and putting us in a better position - 5/2/1 or 5/3 vs 4/2/1 or 4/3 if we no-lynch).


Hmm, quantifying it has made it clearer to me that Vicki and Misty are right, lynching today beats no-lynching and waiting.

Vote: John

[imaginality]

EBWOP: I didn't mention the possibility of cross-kills: sure, SK and scum might cross-kill if we no-lynch, but there's pretty much just as much chance they might do that if we lynch (slightly less chance if we lynch scum and go into night 5/2/1, but slightly more chance if we mislynch and are 4/3/1, versus 5/3/1 for no-lynch). So that seems to be a wash to me.

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

If we mislynch (and by random chance it's more likely than not and by lynching me it

is

a mislynch) then the town rests it's entire fate on the Serial Killer. Now maybe you want what's likely our one crack at this to be on day one with limited information, but we can narrow the list of targets making success more likely even randomly and give ourselves more information and be in near the exact same situation. We see obvious benefit with minimal cost, lynching today carries unknown benefit with a stupidly high degree of risk. The answer is obvious.

[Y]

Vote: No Lynch.

You forgot to Unvote

Unvote.

No vote for now.

[Grimmy]

ill check in on monday to see where we are.

Also no vote for now, as I am still against the no lynch, but DDD makes some good points.

grimmy

[imaginality]

Wow Bruce, fence-sitting much?

[Y]

I think there's been a wile since we heard of Mary Rose, Vicki, Richard and Tom. Bruce's post has no real content but "Look at me! I'm not lurking".

[Hypatia]

I think there's been a wile since we heard of Mary Rose, Vicki, Richard and Tom. Bruce's post has no real content but "Look at me! I'm not lurking".

I've been reading, just not posting. I agree on the Grimmy/Bruce. I would like to hear some reasoning from armlx/Misty, because I gotta say my intuition agrees with his insinuations.

I don't think we should No Lynch and right now I think Y/Tina might be our best shot. There's just no escaping the scumminess of blocking an investigative role.

[armlx]

Honestly, you never throw away a chance to kill in the face of killing groups unless doing so does not cost the town a kill in the long run.

[Grimmy]

Wow Bruce, fence-sitting much?

What I mean is that in priniciple, I see No lynch as a complete waste of a day, and gives the scum a free shot, which is why I tend to avoid these NL situations. But in this set-up, D³ (forgot character name at the moment) has a good point, so I am not as dead set as I would normally be about it.

and dont sit on fences, sometimes they are electrified (true story)

grimmy
<does a triple back flip somersault while ordering sushi

[imaginality]

But in this set-up, D³ (forgot character name at the moment) has a good point

If you mean John's claim that a no-lynch today makes us less likely to be in a losing position tomorrow, I still think that is countered by my point:

The other problem is that [...] assuming scum are smart, at the very best we have a ~50% chance of lynching scum tomorrow. And a few ways we can lose in the night still.

Basically, our chances of random-lynching successfully today = 44%. (And I'd argue that Tina, and John too, are slightly better than random lynches, anyhow).

If we mislynch: yes, we are fairly likely screwed.
If we lynch scum: we have a better chance of pinning the remaining scum down from the night actions than if we no-lynch (e.g. if one scum member is targeted to be blocked/kidnapped, the other one is forced to make the kill, if they want to kill successfully).

No-lynching gives up:

(a) our arguably-better-than-random chances of lynching scum today
(b) our chances of getting a better result from the night actions, if we lynch correctly
(c) our slight chances of still somehow winning despite a mislynch (e.g. with cross-kills)

for:

a chance to lynch tomorrow with odds likely to be only slightly better than they are today, and with defeat even more certain if we mislynch tomorrow than if we mislynch today.

[Grimmy]

I see case on Tina, but not one for John.

Kung Fu sense tingling...

im still more towards being against the no lynch, but im posting now to give my leanings on the current options, as things have gotten hectic, so i am posting because i can right now.

Mod: can we get a vote count please?

Bruce
too lazy to look back and count

[Y]

I did what I did and there's no going back. I already stated my reasons (More than once). Is there another reason for people to vote me?

armlx and malthusis: You didn't answer the questions in post 166.

[armlx]

@armlx and malthusis: Who do you think is scum besides me? Who else should be noticed? Why am I more scummy than all the people who let both the mafia-doc and SK-doc die N0?

Choosing not to jailkeep a doc is reasonable. Jailkeep is also stronger then conditional doc, so Bruce's weak doc choice is right by far.

Personally, I would say maybe DDP, but most info this game is going to come tomorrow morning once we get night actions set.

You also can't compare this scenario to people finding normal tells scummy, its a night action choice here. No similarity.

The answer to the first part is don't give a fuck, that's what night actions are for BTW.

[Grimmy]

Mod: Scratch the vote count request, I see it at the top of the page. Thanks

At this point, I think we have a better chance of finding scum with a tina lynch than we do with a no lynch.

Vote: Tina/Y

Your poor choice of night action is the best reason we have for lynching today.

hhaaaiiiiiiiiyyyaaaaaaa

Bruce
<bows>

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

We lynch Tina.

Richard stalks Bruce.
Bruce protects someone.
Tom watches Bruce.

I target Mary Rose and vice versa.

John targets Vicki or Bruce (flips a coin).

Misty targets me.

This way:

If Bruce does not protect someone, Richard would know. (Also if Bruce protects someone and dies, Richard would know who Bruce's target was.)
If Richard does not stalk Bruce, Tom would know.
If Tom does not watch Bruce, there is a 50/50 shot of him being caught out depending if John targeted Bruce or not.
If Vicki does not self-watch, there is a 50/50 shot of her being caught out depending if John targeted Vicki or not.
If I do not jail Mary Rose, there is a 50/50 shot of her vigging me.
If Misty does not target me, we will know.
If John does not steal someone's vote, we will know.
Mary Rose cannot kill.

Suggested claim order:

Tom (confirms he saw Richard target Bruce)
Bruce (says who he protected)
Richard (confirms he saw Bruce visit who Bruce said he did)

Vicki (says if she saw John target her)
Tom (says if he saw John target Bruce)
John (confirms if he targeted Vicki or Bruce)

Misty's action is confirmed if I'm silenced.
My jailing of Mary Rose is 50% confirmed if I'm alive.
Mary Rose being jailed (and therefore cleared of making any kills) is also 50% confirmed if I'm alive.

Unvote

Vote: Tina

Better than the plans that involve lynching me since I now I'm town and since a no lynch doesn't look like a viable option, hope it works out for us.

[Y]

I guess that's it for me. If it helps, I'm pretty sure armlx is scum.

[Prof. Guppy]

Final vote count:

Tina has 5 votes (Richard, Misty, Tom, Bruce, John)

John has 1 vote (Charles)
3 are not voting (Tina, Mary Rose, Vicki)

"Well," Richard started, "I wanted to see If Bruce would save someone with his martial arts, eh, so I followed him to his house. But then, this slutbag got me all distracted and stuff, so I couldn't tell."

"That's weird," Charles added. "Why on earth would you do that to him, eh?"

"'Coz I thought he might be a gangster, eh, so I wanted to stop him from killing people and stuff," Tina answered.

"Really?" said Misty. "Sound to me like you was covering your buddy's arse while he offed Amy, eh?"

"Hey, that was un-called-for, you knob! Take off!"

"Now, now, let's not get angry," said the Mountie. "We're Canadians, we're better than that. Anyway, we can settle this once and for all. You guys hold her here, while I search her house."

"No!" Tina protested. "You can't do that, eh, I have my fourth amendment rights, and all, don't I?"

"Wrong country, you hoser," said Bruce.

"You're the hoser," she spat back.

10 minutes later, the Mountie returned.

"Okay, eh, I searched her house all over, and I found a lot of really nifty stuff. I found these photographs of Merideth and Jennifer, with red X's painted on, eh, like she was keeping track or something. I found the poison too, here it is, see?"

"Oh, wow, she's the killer!" John said.

"Yeah, okay, I confess, I am the killer. What are you going to do now, eh, kill me? You'll just be proving my point, eh, you're all vile criminals and stuff!"

"Yeah, we get it. So we're not going to kill you. We're going to send you to..." The Mountie whispered in her ear.

"No, not there, please! Let me stay! I promise never to kill again!"

"Yeah, I'd love to let you stay, eh, but we can't take that risk."

"NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!"

And without another word, Tina was put on the first flight to America.

The short version:

Tina

was perceived to be the scummiest player, so she was

lynched.

She was the

Killer.

It is now

Night 1

, you have 72 hours from now to submit your night choices.

[Prof. Guppy]

The next day, the seven survivors gathered in town square once again.

"What's this all about, eh?" asked Mary Rose. "We thought we were safe from the killer, or at least, Rose thought so."

"Well," said Sgt. Blaze, "we've had another murder. As you can see, Vicki is no longer with us. She was shot, sometime between 2330 and 2400 hours last night. We searched the placed for evidence, and we found DNA traces of two individuals. I won't say who, at this point, eh, but I have my suspicions.

"Now, out with it. Who's got an alibi for last night, eh? Eh?"

Vicki, the model

is now dead. She was

Town.

Day 2 begins. Seven alive, eh, four to lynch.

[malthusis]

Well, I knew that Tina was scum, but I'm sorta surprised she didn't remember about the "no tracking" rule and blocked me and revealed herself unnecessarily.

Alright, who claims first?

[AshMC1984]

That'd be me: Richard

did not

stalk Bruce. I'm guessing if you were RB'd I still would have been told who you attempted to target (according to what happened N0).

Ready to vote unless someone sees something I don't.