Open 144 - Near-Vanilla - GAME OVER!

[AndyTony]

Ald
Saber
---> Confirmed Town
========
MCD
AndyTony
---> Nuetral (could be either or)
========
Kdub
Chinaman
---> Pending inquiries/cases/thoughts
=====================================================

** By the way, Saber? I hope by the end of this game you smarten up, please - Otherwise, as promised, I'm never playing in a game with you again (which could be a headache, so consider it as me asking for a favor and less of a threat or something)
=====================================================

@Ald
The very phrase "No Lynch, I'll explain later" is good enough. One would look at it and think "How can "No Lynch" help the town?" and put two and two together (that information, and the

added

information of who you confirmed as town last night would have made it obvious (it's not like you were going to let us mislynch a confirmed towny, the information was important and much needed).

[Alduskkel]

That's why I wanted to hold onto the "saberwolf is Town" knowledge.

[Chinaman]

Alright, here's the deal (my thoughts).

Ald is town. Ald JK'ed SW and confirmed him town. I agree fully with Kdub's assessment of AT and have for quit awhile. I am VT. That leaves MCD or Kdub.

MCD was voting me with d3x (town) and Ald (town). d3x was NK'ed last night which leave MCD as the only non-confirmed person voting for me at that time. At that time I said that I thought that at least one person voting me was scum. I don't know if I believe that anymore and here's why.

I don't claim to know why scum killed d3x, but I do know what my first thought was. MCD is the only other person voting for me that wasn't/isn't confirmed now. My reaction was MCD must be scum. Then I got around to thinking back and even d3x, who's opinions I trust inside and outside the game, said that it's a good possibility that all 3 were town. So, why would scum kill d3x? I'm thinking that it's because he wanted me to automatically go for MCD today. Now I know this is trying to read into why scum did what they did, but let's go back and look at my play so far. Scum are loving me. I am constantly being viewed as scum and would be an easy mislynch if it came to LYLO with me still alive. I also haven't played my best and look very noobish at times. Thus, it would be easily concluded that I would do the obvious noob thing here and attack MCD. Now, this is why I'm thinking MCD town now. If I attack MCD and he's town, that would prolly bring MCD out and vote me (if he wasn't planning on doing it without any attacks on him from me). We know where Ald's vote was going today (me) and now Kdub, who hasn't said jack about me till now is all for my lynch. Everyone is all about Kdub being town (myself included) so how hard would it be to get him in a LYLO situation? I'm guessing pretty hard depending on the PR's and what they did tonight.

So, there you have it. Why I think scum killed d3x and not MCD and why I think that scum is now Kdub. Could it be that the NK had nothing to do with me at all? Of course it could, but from my standpoint, the only 3 non-confirmed are AT (which is the least likely to be scum for obvious reasons), MCD, and Kdub. Had Kdub not voted for me out the gate today, I prolly would have not seen it, but he voted me over SW BEFORE Ald let us know SW was town. Your thoughts?

[Chinaman]

That's the best I can do guys. It's not much to go on since it's me trying to read into why scum would do something, but if you look at only the facts:

-How many times has Kdub said anything about me at all?

-Me or SW would have been an easy Mislynch today without knowing SW was town.

-How much interaction did Kise and Kdub have throughout the game?

-Both Kdub and I were voting for a now confirmed townie at the end of yesterday. Yet today starts with Kdub voting me over SW WITHOUT the knowledge of what Ald did last night. Why wasn't his vote on me yesterday too? Nothing new happened except SW finally got on Kise (which imo looked like bussing even though he was under suspicion). Would it have been dumb for SW to do that as scum, yes, but he wasn't scum now was he?

-I'm pretty sure we all agree that the chances of Ald JK'ing me last night over SW were slim. SW was all over the place yesterday whereas I just looked scummy the whole time (I guess, since I had a nice wagon on me till Kise was brought back up). So going back to Kdub coming after me before the knowledge was released, I think it was a calculated risk. I would have guessed that Ald would have JK'd me or SW last night and between the 2 of us, I think SW was the less readable (even though the read on me is wrong).

-If it's not Kdub it's MCD, and if it's not MCD it's AT who is a freaking mastermind if he's scum. The only way we lose is if AT is just that good (in which case we deserve to lose), or if we lynch anyone other than Kdub and MCD today and in LYLO.

I am personally willing to bet this game on AT being town. Therefore, if I am not lynched or NK'd, I am voting Kdub today and MCD tomorrow if Kdub flips town.

Vote: Kdub

[Chinaman]

Another completed town game for my meta. Read at least the last day guys, it's HILARIOUS and might give you some insight on me. It's a short game either way though if you want to read the whole thing.

http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=12216

[Kdub]

and now Kdub, who hasn't said jack about me till now is all for my lynch

Although I suspected saber more than you yesterday, I've had you at or near the top of my suspect list for most of the game. I can easily find quotes if you would like. This is completely false.

Both Kdub and I were voting for a now confirmed townie at the end of yesterday. Yet today starts with Kdub voting me over SW WITHOUT the knowledge of what Ald did last night. Why wasn't his vote on me yesterday too? Nothing new happened except SW finally got on Kise (which imo looked like bussing even though he was under suspicion). Would it have been dumb for SW to do that as scum, yes, but he wasn't scum now was he?

Yes, it would have been dumb for saber to do that because between the two of them, saber was far more suspicious to the rest of us. If the two of them were scum, Kise would have had a much better chance as the lone scum in the endgame. That is what made me hesitant about voting saber again today, and I explained that in my last post which I guess you didn't read.

@ everyone:
With saberwolf confirmed town, I think I have an idea that could guarantee a win for the town. The only thing about it is that it relies on AndyTony not being the last scum. I feel pretty convinced about him as town, so if everyone agrees with that, I will explain.

[Chinaman]

I agree with that Kdub, please explain.

[Chinaman]

Also Kdub, if you are town, then that makes MCD scum. Do you believe there's that chance? I personally don't really care which of you goes first, him or you, but under the assumption that AT is town, it IS in fact, one of you who are our last scum. So, my "plan" is for you 2 to be lynched and end in a town win. That plan is 100% factually perfect (if AT is town, which I think all of us agree on). Granted, it means people must first believe me to be town which is the real challenge, so if your plan is better, then let's hear it.

Also, let's pretend for a minute that I can indeed convince everyone that I'm town. Would you be willing to die for a town win?

[saberwolf]

Trying to collect my thoughts into a post for later. Until then I'm happy to be alive. Gambits FTW

[Kdub]

Actually, after thinking about my plan more, we don't even need to assume AT is town. OK, here's the plan:

Ald is the JK, China and saber have claimed vanilla. I am vanilla. That means either AT or MC is the doctor. Whoever it is, they should claim now. That person will be confirmed as the doc. Obviously if there is a counterclaim, we lynch one of them today and the other tomorrow and the town wins.

- I will volunteer to be lynched today.
- Ald blocks Chinaman, AT/MC protects Ald at night.
- If someone is killed, then obviously AT/MC (whoever is not the doc) is the scum and we lynch him tomorrow.
- If China is scum, or if the scum decides to not kill, then we are left with 5 players with 1 scum between AT/MC (whoever is not the doc) and China. Lynch one tomorrow and the other on D7. Town wins.

Sound good?

Unvote
Vote: Kdub

[Chinaman]

Well, I don't think it's quit as simple as that, but I could agree with a doc claim. Worst case scenario is doc gets whacked tonight and we know who did it, especially if there is a CC. My guess though is there will be no CC and no night kill still leaving us with 4 to 1. It certainly won't clear me but the doc wont die either. ould leave AT and MCD as the doc. This is assuming SW isn't doc and just claimed vt. Anythat wway, worst case scenario is that there will be no NK and I wont be cleared and we would be 4-1. I'm guessing Ald is doc and MCD is scum (if you're indeed scum Kdub). Since you are willing to lynch yourself, I would rather lynch MCD first then. it's the same situation but reversed. If he flips town you die, but that's if we get a doc claim. I'll keep my vote on you in case Ald and SW want to do, but I think we could go with a MCD lynch first as your post seems genuine (gut). I'll be surprised if AT isn't Doc though....especially after the whole Ald drama and a call for a CC. It sounded like AT wanted to CC, but now I'm thinking he just wanted to make sure he was protecting the real JK. So yeah, I would much rather lynch MCD today and you tomorrow if he flips town.

[Crazy]

Vote Count:

Alduskkel (0)

AndyTony (0)

Chinaman (0)

Kdub (2)

- Chinaman, Kdub

MadCrawdad (0)

saberwolf (0)

No Lynch (1)

- Alduskkel

Not voting (5)

- AndyTony, Chinaman, MadCrawdad, saberwolf

With 6 alive, 4 votes will achieve a lynch.

Deadline for Day 5 is

November 1st

.

(According to yawetag's ruleset, Alduskkel's vote in Post 2072 doesn't count, because he didn't unvote.)

[saberwolf]

Actually, after thinking about my plan more, we don't even need to assume AT is town. OK, here's the plan:

Ald is the JK, China and saber have claimed vanilla. I am vanilla. That means either AT or MC is the doctor. Whoever it is, they should claim now. That person will be confirmed as the doc. Obviously if there is a counterclaim, we lynch one of them today and the other tomorrow and the town wins.

- I will volunteer to be lynched today.
- Ald blocks Chinaman, AT/MC protects Ald at night.
- If someone is killed, then obviously AT/MC (whoever is not the doc) is the scum and we lynch him tomorrow.
- If China is scum, or if the scum decides to not kill, then we are left with 5 players with 1 scum between AT/MC (whoever is not the doc) and China. Lynch one tomorrow and the other on D7. Town wins.

Sound good?

Unvote
Vote: Kdub

this logic isnt all there.

1. It only works if you control the variables. The way you have it phrased you don't have all bases covered. Here's how it should be done:

Vote AT or MCD. Let's say AT for this hypothetical situation
Ald JK's CM while doc protects ald. If AT was the doc, then he claims before we can lynch him and then lynch MCD. Otherwise, if we lynch AT and he's townie, that works out for us. IF he's scum that's even better. Assuming AT is not scum or doc and we lynch him. Then we wait to see the night's results. If there is a death [being me]. Doc claims and we win, because Kdub and CM already claimed VT, and cannot claim doc. From there we can lynch Kdub as he would then be scum. If the death was doc instead of me, the results would still be the same. We know that CM couldnt have killed the doc so it was Kdub.

IF there is no NK, we have doctor claim, and we have 3 cleared town. We lynch one of the other two unconfirmed, JK the other, and then lynch him the next day for a town win.

OR to make this ridiculously easy, we can just all massclaim now.

SW - VT
CM - VT
Kdub - VT
Ald - JK
AT - ?
MCD - ?

AT or MCD claims doc, we then lynch CM. Ald then chooses one of the two unconfirms left to JK. If he picks the wrong one and there's a NK, we simply lynch the only remaining one. IF he is successful, we lynch one of the two. If we lynch wrong, ald simply JKs the remaining one who then can't NK, and we lynch him the next day ftw.

Real doc do not allow a fake claim to go by if one occurs, although I don't think scum will fake claim doc, cause lynching real doc and a NK will still leave us able to lynch scum ftw.

So yeah, AT and MCD, roleclaim please
If

[AndyTony]

So that I'm on the same page.

You would like use to have a list of:

Confirmed Town:
Ald, Saber, [Doc]

Town/Scum:
Kdub, China, [Player]

===============
Then you would like to die (Kdub) leading us into night with
===============

Confirmed Town:
Ald, Saber, [Doc]

Town/Scum:
China, [Player]
===============

So, a NK could take out the Doc (or Saber), and you would be left with

Confirmed Town:
Ald, Saber

Town/Scum:
China, [Player]
==================================
And thus, we would be in Lylo.

And it would be a poorly informed lylo.

@Kdub
- Unless I'm confused along the way

You're asking us to make it easier for the remaining scum player to identify who to kill at night, and leave us as informed/uninformed as we are right now?

Was this a gambit to see if China (potential scum) would go for it?
===============================================

Your plan doesn't work. It put us in lylo with a BETTER INFORMED SCUM.

If the Doc/JK protect each other, saber dies, if they mix it up, one of the PR's die - - - if the JK targets a potential "Town/Scum", they risk mislynching the next day if the scum choose to have no NK.
===============================================

Too many flaws, it only helps scum

[AndyTony]

Reading Sabers post now

[AndyTony]

@ Saber


Your plan is genuinely stupid because you are once again only concerned with having me lynched.

REASON:
You believe Chinaman's claim? Or are you assuming he is VT?

[Kdub]

I think you guys (China and saber) are making my plan out to be more complicated than it has to be. Can you describe a scenario in which my plan, as I outlined above, will not work?

I know that there are variations on the plan (who gets lynched today, who gets blocked, etc.), but the idea is the same and I laid out one scenario to keep things simple. The important thing is that Al knows who to block tonight.

AT:
If the scum kill someone tonight, then we know who the scum is because China will have been blocked by Al, so it can only be you/MC, and one of you will be the confirmed doc. The other must be scum.

[AndyTony]

No, Kdub -

Please re-read my post - - - you would have to assume that scum would choose to not target confirmed town.

You're asking to have three townies confirmed. Only two can be safe. Today we have multiple unknown players - tomorrow we will have multiple unknown players.

And in the night? The night belongs to scum.

This plan INFORMS scum. It doesn't benefit us at all.

[saberwolf]

@ Saber


Your plan is genuinely stupid because you are once again only concerned with having me lynched.

REASON:
You believe Chinaman's claim? Or are you assuming he is VT?

the was there to make it a joke. I'm not too concerned who we lynch between you or MCD, but it has to be one of you.

CM already claimed VT, so he can't claim Doc. The whole point is keeping the ones who claim VT. Once we have a massclaim, we have three confirms, and we simply sift throught the VTs. We don't even have to lynch you AT. If you are doc, just claim. If not, then there is a 50% chance we lynch you, cause it's either you or Kdub.

[AndyTony]

China is not CONFIRMED.

It isn't unheard of in this game for people to claim things to be safe.

And regardless - I'm telling you that an outted doc helps scum more than it helps town.

[saberwolf]

I think you guys (China and saber) are making my plan out to be more complicated than it has to be. Can you describe a scenario in which my plan, as I outlined above, will not work?

I know that there are variations on the plan (who gets lynched today, who gets blocked, etc.), but the idea is the same and I laid out one scenario to keep things simple. The important thing is that Al knows who to block tonight.

AT:
If the scum kill someone tonight, then we know who the scum is because China will have been blocked by Al, so it can only be you/MC, and one of you will be the confirmed doc. The other must be scum.

The problem is scum WON'T NK. they will no lynch so that there is four left and you have to flip a coin to figure out who to kill, and we want 100% certainty, not 50%.

My plan actually works. AT just isn't happy that I suggest he be the sacrifice and not you

[AndyTony]

How do you know 100% they will not NK, saber?

[Kdub]

I have read your post AT, and I'm still not seeing your argument.

Right now, Al and saber are confirmed town. If the doc claims, he will also be confirmed town. Let's say for example that you are the doc. That means the remaining scum is either me, MC, or China.

I am lynched today. Al blocks China, meaning China can't kill tonight. If ANYONE is killed tonight, MC must be the scum because everyone else is either town or roleblocked. It doesn't matter who is killed, or whether we are in lylo tomorrow. We know who the scum is.

If nobody is killed, then there are two possibilities. One is that China is scum and could not kill because Al blocked him. The second is that MC is scum and chose not to kill. However, no kill tonight means there are 5 left tomorrow, which is NOT lylo. We can afford to then lynch one and then the other on D7.

If you are not the doc and it is MC instead, then switch your name and MC's name in the above.

If that plan is flawed, can you describe a specific scenario in which it would not work?

[saberwolf]

China is not CONFIRMED.

It isn't unheard of in this game for people to claim things to be safe.

And regardless - I'm telling you that an outted doc helps scum more than it helps town.

I'm not claiming him to be CONFIRMED. He is a CLAIMED TOWNIE, as well as THE SCUMMIEST OF THE THREE OF YOU, regardless of which of you claims doc. CM < Kdub, AT || CM < Kdub, MCD

We want to CONTROL THE CLAIMED VT's. Because we know scum is one of them. By lynching CM or Kdub and no roleclaims, you are allowing uncertainty, cause say you are doc AT, when you claim doc at lylo, MCD can be scum and CC, and you'd be screwed, cause I honestly think they would vote for you over him.

By getting doc confirmed, we lynch a claimed VT. We JK the scummiest of the VTs and go from there to victory. Show me ANYWHERE, give me ANY SCENARIO, where my plan does not work.

[AndyTony]

I have read your post AT, and I'm still not seeing your argument.

Right now, Al and saber are confirmed town. If the doc claims, he will also be confirmed town. Let's say for example that you are the doc. That means the remaining scum is either me, MC, or China.

I am lynched today. Al blocks China, meaning China can't kill tonight. If ANYONE is killed tonight, MC must be the scum because everyone else is either town or roleblocked. It doesn't matter who is killed, or whether we are in lylo tomorrow. We know who the scum is.

If nobody is killed, then there are two possibilities. One is that China is scum and could not kill because Al blocked him. The second is that MC is scum and chose not to kill. However, no kill tonight means there are 5 left tomorrow, which is NOT lylo. We can afford to then lynch one and then the other on D7.

If you are not the doc and it is MC instead, then switch your name and MC's name in the above.

If that plan is flawed, can you describe a specific scenario in which it would not work?

And scum decide to NK? We would be less informed