Newbie 816 - Game over!

[pancakes]

vote No Lynch

stupid bold thingy

[Adel]

since there is only a 50% chance of us having a cop, I'm very confident that no-lynch is a really bad idea. In most games here, even ones where mathematically no lynch is a good idea or at least no worse than a random lynch, proposing a no lynch will only draw negative attention your way from most other players.

Additionally, it is a prevalent belief on this site that day 1 provide much of the information necessary for the town to successfully lynch scum on later days, even if the day 1 lynch is basically random.

[lailai]

what is the vote count now? a automatic system works better. i guess this will be my only game on this site.

[Adel]

by my count:
ElectricBadger - 1 (Adel)
Cirdua - 3 (Steve Kulko, tfrench, lailai)
lailai - 2 (havingfitz,)
no lynch- 1 (pancakes)
dramonic - 1 (Cirdua)
Adel - 2 (dramonic, ElectricBadger)

Not Voting - 0 ()

[ElectricBadger]

Unvote Adel, Vote Pancakes

Either not reading through the thread, not bothering to give a counter opinion, or not caring about it.

what is the vote count now? a automatic system works better. i guess this will be my only game on this site.

The vote switching slows down a lot later in the game, so not that much of a concern. And while I understand you're used to different play, maybe make an effort to enjoy the differences? Or, at least, the midst of a newbie game isn't really the best place to grumble about every shortcoming of the site.

[dramonic]

Unvote Adel, Vote Pancakes

[Cirdua]

ill

unvote

and vote

No lynch

let's see where we stand tomorrow

One townie less and still nothing to go on to hunt scum, that's where we'll stand tomorrow. You should have got the message by now

unvote, vote:pancakes

I believe only scum would still try to NL after it has been told by all experienced players that a NL would mean a free NK for the scum.

[Vel-Rahn Koon]

Official Vote Count

ElectricBadger - 1 (Adel)

Cirdua - 3 (imkingdavid, tfrench, lailai)

lailai - 1 (havingfitz)
pancakes - 2 (ElectricBadger, Cirdua)

No Lynch - 1 (pancakes)

Not Voting - 1 (dramonic)

5 to Lynch.

Deadline

is the end of Tuesday, August 11 (Eastern, GMT - 4).

[dramonic]

Unvote
Vote Pancake

The quote was my vote :p

[havingfitz]

Unvote Vote:pancakes

because in my uneducated opinion waiting another day to vote is more beneficial to mafia.

[ElectricBadger]

Unvote

That built up way too fast not to have scum on it.

[ElectricBadger]

FOS Cirdua. The rush to a new bandwagon up to L-1 implies scum are jumping on it, and that implies they don't like the existing bandwagon.

Also FOS on Fitz for putting the wagon 1 vote from a lynch.

Finally, if one of Cirdua or Pancakes are mafia, it's unlikely the other is; hard to see both those wagons being all townies.

[Cirdua]

FOS Cirdua. The rush to a new bandwagon up to L-1 implies scum are jumping on it, and that implies they don't like the existing bandwagon.

I just saw Pancakes behavior as suspicious and acted as such, that's kinda the point about mafia. Maybe you didn't notice but there was there whole discusison about why a NL is pro-mafia and pancakes uhm, voted NL. And with existing bandwagon I take it you mean the random votes that are still upon me?

Maybe I should make something clear. People: don't lynch someone before they can react. Bandwagoning just to lynch someone serves no point, this game is about gaining information to determine whether or not someone is scum. Just lynching someone is almost as bad as nolynching, a bandwagon is meant to put pressure on someone to get a reaction and/or some discussion going. If you still think that person is scum, go ahead and lynch him. Then you can use your newly obtained knowledge about the person's true alignment to reanalyze the discussion and use that for Day 2 discussion.
In short:
NL=bad
quick-lynch=bad
thinking before acting=good
this must be one of the longest and most boring things I ever wrote...

[dramonic]

If that's supposed to be long, wait until someone makes a Mastin post

[tfrench]

after reading all that has been said i think this...

nolynches are for mafia and losers and i'm a townie and too cool for school so..

unvote vote pancakes

[Adel]

unvote, vote:havingfitz

most probable scum on a pancakes-town wagon.

[ElectricBadger]

most probable scum on a pancakes-town wagon.

What're your thoughts on trfrench as the second L-1?

unvote, vote:havingfitz

[Adel]

What're your thoughts on trfrench as the second L-1?

We're looking for a scumgroup of 2, not 3.

So there could be a scum group of trfrench + havingfitz, or havingfitz + Cirdua, but I don't think Cirdua + trfrench is very likely.

[Vel-Rahn Koon]

Steve Kulko has requested replacement.

imkingdavid replaces Steve Kulko.

[imkingdavid]

Hey, guys, as Vel said, I'm in for Steve. This is my second game here. You can call me imkingdavid, david, king, IKD, "hey, you", or anything (nice) really, as long as I know you're referring to me. I will, in turn, probably use abbreviations of your usernames as well.

Anyway, I'm going to read through the first four pages and give my thoughts. I'm guessing that by page four we're out of RVS (hopfully; I don't really like RVS). That being said, I will post my suspicions below and then place a vote at the end.

Realize that if at any point I refer to "the town", I am including myself.

The only reason I am saying this is so that someone cannot say "ooh scum slip... you said "the town", not

us

". That kind of thing is a long shot anyway.

If that's supposed to be long, wait until someone makes a Mastin post

Here it comes, although hopefully not

as

long as an actual Mastin post; those are killer. And don't worry, not

all

of my posts will be long, I don't think. Btw, if you guys get bored and want a good read or want to see some really long posts, check out my previous game (Newbie 802).

Alright, so I will begin by analyzing everyones' votes. I have included a few teaching points in here as well, so I suggest you at least browse it.

• Cirdua (do you mind if I call you Cird for short? I'm too lazy to type "ua") votes pancakes (random vote).
  
• EB Votes Adel (for OMGUS, although I don't see how it's OMGUS; Adel had not posted yet)
  
• Dramonic votes EB (for voting the IC) interesting note: "
  we
  need him to mind-control the newbies " Who is we?
  
• Steve (aka me) votes no lynch. (teaching point:
  DO NOT
  suggest no lynch because it CANNOT help the town. At least, not in this case. Usually, it's not a good idea in Newbie games. It can be helpful in LyLo when you have certain roles still alive. But that's for discussion elsewhere.)
  
• EB votes Steve (for
  suggesting
  voting no lynch)
  
• TF votes himself (because he's not mean) (teaching point #2: do not self vote. Unless you're scum, it does not help the town in any way.)
  
• Steve votes Cirdua (assumably because he provided reasoning for not doing a no lynch... not a good reason)
  
• HF votes LL (no reasoning)
  
• pancakes votes HF (b/c of "best avatar"--btw I like it too, but that's not good basis for even a random vote)
  
• LL votes no lynch
  AFTER
  it has already been explained why you shouldn't. (because that's how they do it at epic mafia... well, that's not how we do it here. )
  
• EB votes LL (for "bandwagoning" a no lynch after explanation) (teaching point #3: a bandwagon is when people begin to pile votes on, one after the other. I usually consider something a bandwagon at the 3rd vote, not the second. I would not necessarily consider this bandwagonning, because Steve had already unvoted no lynch)
  
• TF votes EB (because "glasses are for loser") (teaching point #4: ok, that can be considered a personal attack, which I think is modkillable, so please be careful. also, we've had some good semi-serious discussion going on, so I think at this point we were getting out of RVS, so why the random vote this far into the game?)
  
• TF votes Cird (because of "trippy picture")
  
• Adel votes Steve (b/c no avatar. agreed that having an avatar is very helpful. if anyone else doesn't have one, I suggest you get one)
  
• Cird votes Dramonic (b/c of signature... ok I guess we weren't out of RVS. Close though!)
  
• LL votes EB (for pure OMGUS... why?)
  
• Adel votes pancakes (once again for no avatar)
  
• Adel votes EB (...I guess trying to prove a point. but why'd you put him at L-2? if there are scum that aren't voting him, they can quick lynch!)
  
• Dramonic votes Adel (for putting EB at L-2)
  
• LL votes Cird ("i fell like it"), btw LL and everyone else who doesn't have a gender icon set, would you mind doing so? I won't want to say "he" when you might be a "she".
  
• EB votes Adel
  
• Dramonic unvotes (at L-1 too soon)
  
• pancakes votes no lynch. (wtf!? tomorrow ingame, we'll be at the same place we are today ingame, except with one less townie. dude... it's already been explained twice!)
  
• EB votes pancakes (for even thinking about no lynch again)
  
• Dramonic tries to vote pancakes (it has to be in your own words.)
  
• Cird votes pancakes (same reasoning)
  
• Dramonic votes pancakes (same reasoning)
  
• HF votes pancakes (same reasoning) (you know he's now at L-1?)
  
• EB unvotes b/c that built up too fast (agreed. there has to be at least 1 scum on that wagon! As I said before, a bandwagon starts imo at the 3rd vote, so I would have to suspect Cird there)
  
• TF votes pancakes (more bandwagonning.. very suspicious... did you know you put him back at L-1?)
  
• Adel votes HF (b/c of wagonning)
  
• EB follows Adel and votes HF

Ok... I know I'm not IC, or even SE, but I hope you'll still notice and learn from my teaching points.

That bandwagonning was very suspicious in my mind. Since 5/9 people voted on that wagon, I'm willing to bet that one or even both scum are on that wagon.

But realize that looking for scum pairs before you eliminate one scum kills the town. For proof, look at Day 3 of my previous game!

Right now, because he put pancakes BACK at L-1, I'm going to

Vote: TF

(that is, Tfrench, abbreviated).

However, since Dramonic was 3rd on the first wagon, I am going to have to put my

FoS: Dramonic

In any case, it's still pretty early on. I suggest that unless you actually have real suspicions of pancakes (besides the suggesting no lynch) that you unvote him. There's no need to bring someone this close to a lynch on page 4.

[imkingdavid]

As a follow up, let me explain why I think it's a bad idea to pair two people as possible scum partners before you lynch the first scum. Here are a few scenarios:

Scenario 1

You pair 1 Townie and 1 Scum. You lynch the townie first, and since you paired the two, you will find it less likely that the actual scum is really scum. So you let him go based on your failed pairing.

Bad for town.

Scenario 2

You pair 1 Townie and 1 Scum. You lynch the scum first, and since you paired the two, you find it very likely that the actual townie is scum. So you lynch the townie as well. While you might have found a scum, you ended up lynching a townie for no good reason.

Bad for town

Scenario 3

You pair 2 Townies. You lynch one or both of them (just to make sure).

Very bad for town.

Scenario 4

You pair 2 Scum. This is the ONLY way it can go well. And at this point, where there are 9 players, I don't think it's highly likely that unless we get lucky we will pair scum.

Good for town, but HIGHLY unlikely.

So that is why you at least wait until the first scum is gone to look for links between two people. In my last game, town lost because they focussed on who might be linked.

Also, can we try and be a bit more active? This game looks to be going a bit slow, imo. (4 pages in 1 week is slow to me)

Finally, understand that we might not lynch scum Day 1. In fact, the odds are against it (7/9 are not scum, only a 2/9 chance of being correct). However, since there have been so many unnecessary bandwagons, I would recommend that we please try to do some thinking before we place our votes, especially when we get up in the L-2 and L-1 and Hammer areas. My vote is on TF right now, but I will change it if someone else appears more scummy to me.

[dramonic]

*clap clap*

Very nice post/summary IKD. For someone who is fairly new that post was quite marvelous.

Also, I'm going to

Unvote
Vote: Tfrench

Heavy bandwagonning <_<


unofficial Vote Count

ElectricBadger - 1 (Adel)
Cirdua - 2 (tfrench, lailai)
pancakes - 3 (Cirdua, havingfitz, tfrench)
Havingfitz - 2 (Adel, EB)
Tfrench - 2 (imkingdavid, dramonic)

No Lynch - 1 (pancakes)

[ElectricBadger]

Right now, because he put pancakes BACK at L-1, I'm going to

Vote: TF

(that is, Tfrench, abbreviated).

However, since Dramonic was 3rd on the first wagon, I am going to have to put my

FoS: Dramonic

/agree with tfrench. The 2nd L-1 for a very meh reason after my unvote and comment feels to me like a goon piling on a bandwagon hoping to carry through a failing quick lynch - possibly reading his scumbuddy's vote as a signal to act? That, or a townie who was paying no attention to things, which is almost worth lynching on principle anyways.

Dramonic doesn't read particularly scummy to me. I think it's fairly clear he tried to vote 2nd (making Cird the 3rd) (though also agree with the mod not counting the vote), and either way I don't see it as scummy. I'm familiar with the '3rd vote=bandwagon forming=scum tell' theory, but I disagree with it. I like the 3rd spot personally, because it transforms a couple random votes into significant pressure to make a person respond, but doesn't push so far as to be a real danger. It's also always very interesting to see who pushes it further. Not saying I clear dramonic, I just don't read any tells into his vote.

Agree with Adel's associations as playing the odds, but links are pretty weak in this phase still, so not going to bank on that too much.

A couple good scummy suspects, and tf is the more suspicious by a small margin. Lets nudge this up a notch and see where it goes.

Unvote Fitz, Vote tfrench.

[dramonic]

3rd vote!

scum scum scum scum scum XD

[tfrench]

i stick to my vote, a no lynch is a free pass for scum