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Post Post #75 (ISO) » Tue May 18, 2010 4:16 am

Post by JacobSavage »

Furry was absolutely right about comparing a PGO to a Miller. Miller is completely impossible to prove without lynching the person who claimed it and then it is too late to anything other than say "Oh, I guess they were telling the truth, my bad...." Hoopla, if she is true claiming, is pretty much in the same boat.
Two things:
1. Death Miller.
2. Like 112 with a SK and a Psycolgist who has found the SK on the first night and can therefore use himself as a sacrifice :).
Just a few minor technicalities in which you can test claimed roles such as a PGO and Miller
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Post Post #76 (ISO) » Tue May 18, 2010 4:45 am

Post by Slepz »

nikanor wrote:Slepz, I don't think you've actually explained to us how a PGO is risky to the town. Care to do so now?
PGO is not risky, it's beneficial. Unconfirmed (and unconfirmable) PGO is. Any number of scum could hide behind that mask.
hoopla wrote:You are using the 'WELL, SHE COULD BE' logic, that applies to EVERYONE on day 1. The fact I have claimed a role doesn't alter this - this is what policy lynches are. They are lynches that don't hit scum more often than not. If you think I am more likely to be fakeclaiming, then that is a scumtell and I'd appreciate you explaining your reasons why my claim is likelier to be fake.
Well actually I'm using the 'WELL, SHE IS MORE LIKELY TO BE' logic, as you've pretty much confirmed that you are either PGO or scum. Everybody else could be any number of pro-town roles which I would like to avoid lynching.
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Post Post #77 (ISO) » Tue May 18, 2010 4:47 am

Post by havingfitz »

Nikanor wrote:WTF is with the Hoopla wagon? Are we all taking crack now?
Unvote. Vote: havingfitz.

These bandwagon hoppers need to go. Also, havingfitz accuses Furry of bullshitting, which should be considered scummy by any player, but doesn't vote for Furry, and sticks with a Hoopla vote for reasons I will never fully understand.
WTF is the problem with a Hoopla wagon? If people suspect her they should vote her. And why say bandwagon hoppers need to go immediately after hopping on my bandwagon...do you need to go? Furry's 'case' on me does make me a little leery of him but not enough to move my vote.
InflatablePie wrote:havingfitz, meanwhile, just jumps on the Hoopla wagon after gaining some votes with no further explanation to his unvote. This was also after Hoopla voted fitz - countervoting always twitches my scumdar a bit.
What does 'just jumps....after gaining some votes' mean? I gave my reasoning with my vote and the fact it came after Hoopla's vote on me (with no reason whatsoever....what does that do to your scumdar?) can't be helped. I was not going to refrain from a Hoopla vote just because she had placed one on me...which BTW came after I had expressed the opinion her claim was more beneficial to scum than town.

I tend to not take anything at face value in mafia unless it can be proven somehow. As I've mentioned...I have not played a game with a PGO before and after further consideration I am not prepared to to accept a claim that can not be confirmed and provides such an umbrella of protection. I don't know when the best time to claim PGO is but to come out so early in the game seems off to me.

@ all - Do most PGO's claim immediately? Is it standard practice?
InflatablePie wrote:In addition, fitz's unvoting for the same reason as Oso can also be seen as him trying to blend in with what others are doing, kind of supported by his BW vote of Hoopla.
The same could be said for your (and nikanor's) criticisms and votes on me. I.e. your point is worthless.

Furry wrote:No town roles attempting to use a protown action kill themselves by targeting the PGO this way...
I realize this...you are basically paraphrasing what I say in the comment you are quoting. To be clearer...if there any
other
reason for the PGO to claim...especially right from the start. As mentioned...I see more benefit to scum than town with an early PGO claim.

On that note...if a PGO was on the verge of getting lynched and claimed...would it save them?
Furry wrote:You dont ignore the growth forming on your arm because you dont know what it is. Also RVS *should* end as soon as anyone makes a non-random move, since at that point information exists. Also zero opinion or just little opinion?

This isn't an episode of House. It was a claim I needed to digest and I was in "game start w/ perfunctory RV vote" mode.

Greater than zero but less than absolute certainty. :roll:
Furry wrote:Yeah thats basically it. Also why joke as if the role actually exists if you are still unsure about the role existing?
Huh? My joke response was a RV on xRECKONERx for saying let's all lynch Hoopla 'tonight'...which is when scum do their actions (ie at night)...hence the RV. It had nothing to do...still...with the PGO RC.
Furry wrote:Either way related to the previous points of you having an existing opinion on the claim. You use a whole lot of roundabout talk in coming to the conclusion that he is faking the claim. What are your basic opinions on miller claims?
Where do I use roundabout talk? In trying to better understand the rationale/benefit of a PGO claim? Is gaining a better understanding of the pros/cons of a game event a bad thing? I have never played with a miller, and since it has no bearing on this game due to different role dynamics (ie actions involving millers don't result in the death of others)...why does it matter?
Furry wrote:Why do you want to know if a lynch is policy or not unless you are interested in persuing it? I see no real town motivation in wanting to know if its standard to policy lynch a PGO before trying to push one.
Because I have not played with the role and therefore/in addition have not seen the role considered as a target for policy lynching before. Curiosity. Self improvement in the game of mafia. If asking a simple question about policy lynching in response to someone else bringing it up is such a scumtell...what would the motivation be for scum to ask the question? Perhaps I'm just not familiar with the role and the policy lynching aspect of it and wanted more info. As for the fact I currently have a vote on Hoopla...call it what you will: OMGUS, a policy-lynch vote, whatever. The fact is I feel better not believing the claim and putting a vote on her than I do putting blind faith in the fact she is telling the truth.
Furry wrote:IIRC games ive seen you in, you normally have a vote out. Votes are awesome though. Unless something major is happening you should always have a vote out.
If I feel a game is out of RVS and I don't have a strong suspcion I will unvote without placing a new one. And I do normally have a vote out...and I do.

@Furry...what is your take on xRECONERx. He appears to have ignored the PGO claim intially as well and has done a much better job of "continuing to take up space instead of contribute" than the two RV post you called me out for.
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Post Post #78 (ISO) » Tue May 18, 2010 5:25 am

Post by Gwynplaine »

Slepz wrote:PGO is not risky, it's beneficial. Unconfirmed (and unconfirmable) PGO is. Any number of scum could hide behind that mask.
This makes no sense. The circumstances under which a living player could be confirmed as a Paranoid Gun Owner are vanishingly rare. (In fact, I can only think of one that could occur in a normal game, and that would require outing at least two other town PRs.)

Vote: Slepz
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Post Post #79 (ISO) » Tue May 18, 2010 7:36 am

Post by xRECKONERx »

Slepz wrote:
reckoner wrote:Tempted to vote Slepz.
Please explain.
Gladly.
Slepz wrote:PGO is a tough role to play, but I feel like the most pro-town way to play it would be to attract as little attention as possible from all, only claiming if you begin to look suspicious to the town. SK was my immediate first thought when I saw the claim, but
I now see how the claim
could
be beneficial to the town
. Maybe the mafia will test the claim tonight and, assuming you aren't a cop or something,
it's a pro-town move
. Rather risky, though, and I feel it's unwarranted this early in the game.
SK or scum seems more likely
to me right now, so I'll
Vote: Hoopla
.
This whole post basically flips back and forth on "It's town. It could be pro-town. It's risky. It's not pro-town. It's SK or scum. Lemme vote the PGO claim." The majority of this post is spent rationalizing how Hoopla's claim could be pro-town, then Slepz slaps down a vote without explaining why he thinks SK or scum seems more likely. Probably because, were he SK or scum, getting the PGO lynched would be beneficial for him so that he wouldn't have to worry about not being about to NK her.

Unvote; Vote: Slepz
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Post Post #80 (ISO) » Tue May 18, 2010 9:53 am

Post by yabbaguy »

During the brief lulls in this shouting match, only the breeze and the birds can be heard. All activity is at a standstill.


Vote Count:


7 to lynch

havingfitz (4): Furry, Hoopla, Nikanor, InflatablePie
Hoopla (3): Radical Hijinx, Slepz, havingfitz
Slepz (2): Gwynplaine, xRECKONERx
Oso (1): q21
Radical Hijinx (1): Oso

Nonvoters: JacobSavage

Deadline is 6/6 @ 10 PM GMT-4. No Lynch occurs if this elapses.
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Post Post #81 (ISO) » Tue May 18, 2010 10:43 am

Post by Furry »

Super short on time, and will be untill this weekend
havingfitz wrote:
Nikanor wrote:WTF is with the Hoopla wagon? Are we all taking crack now?
Unvote. Vote: havingfitz.

These bandwagon hoppers need to go. Also, havingfitz accuses Furry of bullshitting, which should be considered scummy by any player, but doesn't vote for Furry, and sticks with a Hoopla vote for reasons I will never fully understand.
WTF is the problem with a Hoopla wagon? If people suspect her they should vote her. And why say bandwagon hoppers need to go immediately after hopping on my bandwagon...do you need to go? Furry's 'case' on me does make me a little leery of him but not enough to move my vote.
So Hoopla is a policy lynch to you then?
@ all - Do most PGO's claim immediately? Is it standard practice?
PGO is a fairly rare role, but I think it is a common day one claim. Not as much as miller but its up there.
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Post Post #82 (ISO) » Tue May 18, 2010 11:02 am

Post by InflatablePie »

My comments are in bolded dark red.
havingfitz wrote:
InflatablePie wrote:havingfitz, meanwhile, just jumps on the Hoopla wagon after gaining some votes with no further explanation to his unvote. This was also after Hoopla voted fitz - countervoting always twitches my scumdar a bit.
What does 'just jumps....after gaining some votes' mean?
It means that after you began to gain some votes, you just jumped on the Hoopla wagon.
I gave my reasoning with my vote and the fact it came after Hoopla's vote on me (with no reason whatsoever....what does that do to your scumdar?
Mentioned it in 65 but forgot to expand - Votes like that always seem a bit off to me. It didn't affect me much because I buy the PGO claim at the moment. In addition, I inferred that she was voting because of your "out of RVS" unvote.
) can't be helped. I was not going to refrain from a Hoopla vote just because she had placed one on me...which BTW came after I had expressed the opinion her claim was more beneficial to scum than town.
Really? In 40, you seemed to be kind of undecided. Why not vote for Hoopla in that post, then, instead of waiting?


I tend to not take anything at face value in mafia unless it can be proven somehow. As I've mentioned...I have not played a game with a PGO before and after further consideration I am not prepared to to accept a claim that can not be confirmed and provides such an umbrella of protection. I don't know when the best time to claim PGO is but to come out so early in the game seems off to me.

@ all - Do most PGO's claim immediately? Is it standard practice?
InflatablePie wrote:In addition, fitz's unvoting for the same reason as Oso can also be seen as him trying to blend in with what others are doing, kind of supported by his BW vote of Hoopla.
The same could be said for your (and nikanor's) criticisms and votes on me. I.e. your point is worthless.
My vote, maybe. I admit it was a bit BW-ish. But it doesn't mean I have no reason for keeping a vote on you at this time.
Will try to read Oso's semi-wall back there later on tonight.
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Post Post #83 (ISO) » Tue May 18, 2010 11:03 am

Post by InflatablePie »

Argh, this is why I need to preview before using a bunch of tags.

I think you guys get what parts are me and what parts are his, though.

Fixed, I hope. ~yabb
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Post Post #84 (ISO) » Tue May 18, 2010 12:24 pm

Post by Slepz »

Gwynplaine wrote:
Slepz wrote:PGO is not risky, it's beneficial. Unconfirmed (and unconfirmable) PGO is. Any number of scum could hide behind that mask.
This makes no sense. The circumstances under which a living player could be confirmed as a Paranoid Gun Owner are vanishingly rare. (In fact, I can only think of one that could occur in a normal game, and that would require outing at least two other town PRs.)

Vote: Slepz
I understand that it is unconfirmable; I said so in my post. This intrinsic property is what makes it so bad.

reckoner wrote:This whole post basically flips back and forth on "It's town. It could be pro-town. It's risky. It's not pro-town. It's SK or scum. Lemme vote the PGO claim." The majority of this post is spent rationalizing how Hoopla's claim could be pro-town, then Slepz slaps down a vote without explaining why he thinks SK or scum seems more likely. Probably because, were he SK or scum, getting the PGO lynched would be beneficial for him so that he wouldn't have to worry about not being about to NK her.
Now you're mixing up what I said. As a PGO, you logically might choose to claim. That
could
be pro-town. I'm not saying she is a PGO, simply that if she
were
it would be an understandable choice. I think Hoopla is scum or SK because it seems the better move for the town would have been to not attract the attention of pro-town powers and maybe wait a bit. Your problem, reckoner, is that you are mixing together my comments on the reasoning of the claim and the validity of the claim. To clarify, I can see the reason behind claiming if she is PGO, but I question the validity.
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Post Post #85 (ISO) » Tue May 18, 2010 1:07 pm

Post by q21 »

InflatablePie wrote:q21: Which do you find more "scummy"? Hoopla's reasonless vote of fitz or fitz's countervote of Hoopla?

Other people can answer this, too.
Prior to Hoopla's explanation I viewed the two as about the same. Post Hoopla's explanation her actions make sense to me and therefore I view fitz vote a scummier.
Hoopla wrote:-snip-

If my role is true, and I can manage to convince the players here I am town, I can be a ridiculously powerful weapon against scum. Town doesn't know if I am truthful or not, though. Scum does. Which provides ample information for early on D1, because scum's natural position will be somewhere from in the middle to pro-policy lynch, because they cannot afford to keep me alive. havingfitz and possibly someone like q21 are good character models for what I expected from scum, and would make delicious D1 lynches (from my perspective).

-snip
This paragraph (contextualised by the one's before, obviously) explains your vote for fitz. I would, however, like to question why you have included me as a good character model for scum. I have not been any way interested, even mildly, in a lynch of you - policy or otherwise. In fact I stated that I was against a policy lynch of you.
Oso wrote:@Hoopla, I believe your RC just enough at the moment to change this vote and put my vote on fitz if you want to L-2 him and get a claim out of him or pressure cook him a bit more. His play so far hasn't been town in my opinion but I'm not completely convinced that he is scum. My money for Day 1 is on Radical Hijinx.
I dislike the way you seem to be offering your vote to Hoopla here. If you think fitz deserves a vote, voe for him. Otherwise don't. That said the rest of this post is a good reasoned argument which I happen agree with on rereading.

Enough so that I think a vote change is in order.

vote: Radical Hijinx


I specifically don't like the way he's admitted that his vote on Hoopla was a poor reaction but hasn't unvoted.
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Post Post #86 (ISO) » Tue May 18, 2010 3:43 pm

Post by Oso »

q21 wrote:I dislike the way you seem to be offering your vote to Hoopla here. If you think fitz deserves a vote, voe for him. Otherwise don't. That said the rest of this post is a good reasoned argument which I happen agree with on rereading.
That's just it, he does deserve a vote. As do Radical Hijinx and Slepz and all for the same reason, in my opinion: Voting and pushing a case against a player they shouldn't be at this point in time.

I think that RH is the best candidate for the pressure (and lynch) right now but it seems that right at the moment, havingfitz is the one in the cooker but he has only 4 votes and that is one under L-2 where most people generally RC or start to feel the heat really badly.

My offer is just that, a willingness to loan my vote temporarily to those folk pressuring fitz. Unless he really falls to pieces though, I won't be in on the lynch. I think RH is the lynch for today so unless things radically change, that is where my vote is going to stay.
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Post Post #87 (ISO) » Tue May 18, 2010 5:23 pm

Post by Gwynplaine »

Slepz wrote:I understand that it is unconfirmable; I said so in my post. This intrinsic property is what makes it so bad.
Seems to me you were contrasting "PGO" with "Unconfirmed/unconfirmable PGO" which is what I say makes no sense.
Any
PGO claim is practically unconfirmable, so why would you say "PGO isn't risky, but an unconfirmed PGO is?"

In other news, JacobSavage needs to post more.
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Post Post #88 (ISO) » Tue May 18, 2010 5:28 pm

Post by Hoopla »

Some thoughts on everyone's play so far;

Furry

I like his reaction to my claim - I appreciate the awkwardness of me believing him because he believes me, but this is exactly the stance scum would not make. Or at the very best, only one of the scumteam would make so they still had a chance to push my wagon. Furry has been proactive and sensible in his reads though and should I ever die in this game, my town flip would strongly suggest Furry is town too.

Gwynplaine

Tough to figure out - his first post leans toward a town read on me, but still leaves the option open to switch if things picked up. My read of him improved when he attacked Slepz, who is the biggest advocate for a policy lynch this game.

havingfitz

He is my pick for lynch today. He's dropped the most information about his alignment than anyone else, and I am liking the personnel in favour of this lynch, which makes me feel better about it. He initially didn't respond directly to my claim, which I interpret as a loose scum team. I imagine town players would be dazzled/confused/intrigued enough to comment on it, whereas ignoral of such a detail indicates belief, but is not sure how to react to it.

Fishing for the policy lynch is his biggest crime - it's as if he's testing the waters for supporters of a Hoopla wagon without getting his hands dirty himself. His opinions have slowly morphed towards policy lynch, even if he doesn't recognise it as that.

InflatablePie

To be honest, I hadn't followed too many of his posts to remember the stances he took, and I still can't get much of a read either way. His initial impression of my claim is a viable response from town or scum, and even his follow up posts are hard to gauge. His analysis has been minimal, but logical enough to not warrant any suspicion. Unsure.

JacobSavage

Has posted next to nothing. His first actual 'content' post, if you can call it that, was uninformative and didn't take any major stances, or even reference any of the major events. Need to hear a lot more from him soon, though.

Nikanor

Liking his play so far - it's been minimal, but he's raised decent points each time, and also doesn't fit in with my theory of scum being open to or pushing a policy lynch on me. Probably town from my perspective.

Oso

Started out poorly, ignoring my claim and then sitting on the fence, but I can't help get town vibes from his play. It seems like genuine uncertainty, even if it isn't the correct play to wallow in it, rather than taking a stance based on logic or gut. His logic about him waiting back so he can analyse everyone's reactions is also flawed, but still has an innocent air about it. I'm not sure about him passing his vote on to me though, that seems like a way to avoid responsibility.

I'm okay with Oso being around though, because he seems like a pretty readable player. His case on Radical Hijinx is quite decent too.

q21

I'm mostly skeptical about his play, because I know he is cagey and capable of producing rational, logical cases as either alignment. I haven't played with him in a while, so it's possible my meta is outdated or skewed by poor memory, but he seems to favour rationality over gut, and find loopholes and pieces of logic that fit together, which I know is very doable for him as either alignment.

His entry into the game was the sketchiest moment for me. He opted for a safe vote on Oso, questioning his obviously anti-town style of sitting back waiting for reactions, but q21 himself didn't offer much of an opinion either way. The following couple of posts seem hollow - an enquiry into Nikanor's playstyle, an explanation of PGO's and an offhand comment to Furry. It's like he's around a lot, but hasn't given much, when I would have expected him to get his hands a bit dirtier. I especially expected him to question me a bit more, but at the moment he doesn't look like he's trying to discover people's alignments, which isn't how I remember q21.

Radical Hijinx

Difficult case really - his first post after my claim advocating a policy lynch is a scum tell to me, but the way he pursued other opinions on the claim, and grilled those who ignored it seemed genuine. It could be a case of forcing the suspicion on to these players to take attention off his scum-favouring stance, but I'm not convinced he is scum. I don't expect scum to back down from the policy lynch stance after it was pointed out as potentially scummy. Him leaving his vote on me is odd, possibly wreckless, but I don't think it's there as a devious way to grow my wagon.

Slepz

I'm not digging his reaction to the claim - he is the one most in favour of a policy lynch. The logic seems to be, 'well, it isn't confirmable, she must be lynched!', which is flawed because you'll never be able to confirm many players in the game. You're always taking a risk with whoever you choose not to kill. The fact he has no interest in analysing my play and trying to figure out my alignment isn't good play, and if he really wants to sit on his hands and sport this policy, he needs to justify why a lynch on me is beneficial to the town in the long run.

xRECKONERx

I wasn't really digging the jokey posts at first, but he has turned it around with his logical butchering of Slepz' post, which makes me feel better about him. I have no immediate concerns with Reck, because I don't think he is the sort of character deliberately trying to avoid making a stance.
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Post Post #89 (ISO) » Tue May 18, 2010 5:34 pm

Post by InflatablePie »

Thanks for fixing my tags, Mod. ^_^

Oso: so what you're saying in your big post on P3 is basically: one of havingfitz or RH is most likely scum - if one flips scum than the other is town?

Your logic seems sound, so I can go with an RH vote. First, I'd like fitz to at least answer the question at the end of the first paragraph in 82. Then I'll decide whether I'll change my vote or not.

@Gwyn: I can somewhat agree, but we
are
only roughly two days and four pages in to D1. Give him some time. I don't particularly like people pressuring lurkers very early on, so I shall point a pinky of suspicion at you, sir.
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Post Post #90 (ISO) » Tue May 18, 2010 5:35 pm

Post by InflatablePie »

And I get ninja'd by a wall.
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Post Post #91 (ISO) » Tue May 18, 2010 6:08 pm

Post by Nikanor »

I'll just start by saying that I like Oso's vote, but think that he probably has too much time on his hands to write that much. Note that me liking Oso's vote doesn't mean that I think RH is scum; on the contrary, I'm getting gut town vibes from him.
havingfitz wrote:WTF is the problem with a Hoopla wagon? If people suspect her they should vote her. And why say bandwagon hoppers need to go immediately after hopping on my bandwagon...do you need to go? Furry's 'case' on me does make me a little leery of him but not enough to move my vote.
WTF is wrong with a havingfitz wagon?
Hoopla wrote:Liking his play so far - it's been minimal, but he's raised decent points each time, and also doesn't fit in with my theory of scum being open to or pushing a policy lynch on me. Probably town from my perspective.
Why thank you.

q21's vote looks bandwagonny (and not the good kind of shameless bandwagonning that town does). I imagine that if q21 is scum, RH is probably town.
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Post Post #92 (ISO) » Tue May 18, 2010 6:45 pm

Post by xRECKONERx »

No, Hoop, you don't understand.

I'm a jackass.
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Post Post #93 (ISO) » Wed May 19, 2010 5:24 am

Post by Oso »

InflatablePie wrote:Oso: so what you're saying in your big post on P3 is basically: one of havingfitz or RH is most likely scum - if one flips scum than the other is town?
Not quite. I don't see an obvious connection between the two. I'm convinced enough that RH is scum to vote and lynch him at this time. So if that happens and he flips scum, then my estimation that fitz is his partner in some way is going to go down.

The opposite is not true, if fitz gets lynched today and he flips scum, it isn't going to change my opinion much at all on RH simply because of the way fitz got on the wagon in the first place. fitz might be following a partner's lead by waiting until there is some clutter in the thread between his partner's vote and his own but I just don't see that happening. If I could put myself in scum's place in a situation like this, if my partner voted on an RC like Hoopla's in the same situation, I'd do my best to distance from that. I certainly wouldn't follow him on to it unless it was much later in the voting process.
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Post Post #94 (ISO) » Wed May 19, 2010 5:34 am

Post by Oso »

EBWOP (hit reply instead of preview)

The way Hoopla RCed, I am convinced there is at least one scum on the wagon (I'm going on the premise for the rest of the day that Hoppla did true-claim) and that Radical Hijinx is that scum. Because of not being communicate during the day and not being able to discuss collectively the response to Hoopla's RC, they(the scum) might trip up some so my belief is that if fitz is scum, he made a big mistake by being on the Hoopla wagon so soon after his partner was.
My Uncle always use'ta say, 'You can't get no blood from a turnip.' .... He'd say the same thing about gettin' it from a stone, too.
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Post Post #95 (ISO) » Wed May 19, 2010 9:07 am

Post by q21 »

Hoopla - this is my first game in about a year... not quite up to my old form yet. Give it time.

Nikanor - Doesn't there have to be a badwagon for a vote to be bandwagonny? One vote does not a bandwagon make, two votes barely does. Please explain how it is that you consider my vote bandwagonny in a bad way.
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Post Post #96 (ISO) » Wed May 19, 2010 9:20 am

Post by xRECKONERx »

Fitz kinda annoys me.
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Post Post #97 (ISO) » Wed May 19, 2010 9:41 am

Post by q21 »

The ratio of inane comments to worthwhile game content in your posts is disconcerting, xRECKONERx.
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Post Post #98 (ISO) » Wed May 19, 2010 9:42 am

Post by xRECKONERx »

Cry moar.
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Post Post #99 (ISO) » Wed May 19, 2010 9:45 am

Post by Nikanor »

q21 wrote:Nikanor - Doesn't there have to be a badwagon for a vote to be bandwagonny? One vote does not a bandwagon make, two votes barely does. Please explain how it is that you consider my vote bandwagonny in a bad way.
It's opportunistic.
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