Mini 973: "Bawhston" Brawl (WHAT A WIN!)

[InflatablePie]

unvote

SEE LOOK HE'S WAGONING

[Midnight's Sorrow]

....obvious much there IP...

[InflatablePie]

You don't have a sense of humor, do you MS?

[yabbaguy]

Vote Count:

3 to lynch

No Lynch (3): Hoopla, Midnight's Sorrow, InflatablePie

Nonvoters: havingfitz (NL was hammered with IP's vote)

[yabbaguy]

The mob, having hardly uttered a word, gives up on finding a tree and goes home. One representative takes a look at the one member who's carrying the infamous rope, but then shrugs and keeps walking. He mutters something to the effect of "Oh, Boston".

D5 ends with No Lynch.

N5- Click here to submit Night Actions. Deadline: 7/9 @ 12 PM GMT-4.

Also thought now would be a good time to mention that Rocks Fall Everyone Dies is a threat in this game. If two consecutive Day/Night cycles of No Lynch and No Kill occur, then it becomes a losing stalemate for everyone; nobody acheives their win condition.

[yabbaguy]

The 9th member of the mob has been dispensed with. She was strolling down in the direction of Harvard Yard, when suddenly a shrill cry echoed out:

"I'M A HE, DAMMIT!"

Oh yeah, right.

Anyways, recognizing this voice, our alert Mafioso promptly went down there to deliver a shot to her, I-I'm sorry, his head. Sheesh, I can't get that right. But the mob will have to live without Midnight's effervescent personality. Can you even call them a mob now?

Midnight's Sorrow Shot N5:

Vanilla (Town)

Even five days later, infiltration is still abound in what remains of the mob. Failure after so many days of tireless detective work, seeing so much bloodshed, and general exhaustion would be nothing short of a cataclysmic catastrophe.

D6: 3 alive, 2 to lynch. Deadline: 7/23 @ 6 PM GMT-4

[Hoopla]

Ah, brilliant! It turns out we only have a 2-player scumteam after all. That makes me feel a bit better about totally messing up with Oso's lynch - in my defence, the entirity of the case resided on the assumption that there was a 3-player scumteam. Thanks posthumously to Oso for being a good sport.

Let me have a think about who the final scum is. I'm confident we have enough information to nail this scumbag.

[InflatablePie]

I believe I know what I'm doing here.

Vote: fitz

Voting this early in lylo may be dangerous, but I've already come to the conclusion that Hoopla is not scum.

I've already presented what I think is a good case on fitz - even though Oso did not flip scum, fitz was EXTREMELY opposed to Oso's lynch, even though it would eventually happen due to Hoopla's place on the wagon, along with myself and MS switching (Hoopla herself being very influential; Nik's vote was just a matter of him getting in the thread). He knew Oso was town and switching so suddenly would condemn him, so he defended Oso - when Oso flipped town, he could say "I told you so".

I believe I have made other points during the days as well, I'll look back for those if needed. More content/arguing to come later, promise.

[InflatablePie]

If Hoopla IS scum, well, the game will be over in about 2 minutes or less since she just posted.

It's a risk I am willing to take.

[Hoopla]

Happy with the draw, InflatablePie?

[InflatablePie]

If we lynch fitz today, it won't be a draw, now will it?

[Hoopla]

My lack of hammer confirms me as town now, so I look forward to you and fitz' slinging mud for the next page or so, whilst I compile my thoughts. For the deceased townies reading along - don't worry, I got this, my record in lylo is 1/7.

[InflatablePie]

Obviously we now know you're town. What do you mean, 1/7?

[Hoopla]

Obviously we now know you're town. What do you mean, 1/7?

Lylo's I've been alive in where I've had to make the choice, I've one win and seven losses. Or maybe that includes my own lynch in lylo too - I don't remember, I haven't been in lylo for a while now.

[havingfitz]

I believe I know what I'm doing here.

Vote: fitz

Voting this early in lylo may be dangerous, but I've already come to the conclusion that Hoopla is not scum.

I've already presented what I think is a good case on fitz - even though Oso did not flip scum, fitz was EXTREMELY opposed to Oso's lynch, even though it would eventually happen due to Hoopla's place on the wagon, along with myself and MS switching (Hoopla herself being very influential; Nik's vote was just a matter of him getting in the thread). He knew Oso was town and switching so suddenly would condemn him, so he defended Oso - when Oso flipped town, he could say "I told you so".

I believe I have made other points during the days as well, I'll look back for those if needed. More content/arguing to come later, promise.

Your case sucks because it's based on scum trying to make town look bad. I'm too tired to post any content right now (late night out) but will tomorrow if the game is still on. I'm town Hoopla. If there is anything in IPs 'case' on me that you need clarification on let me know. I'll make my case on him asap. Until then.....VOTE: InflatablePie

[InflatablePie]

Furry made a good case on early-D1 fitz here.

He ignores the PGO claim at first, to test the waters (saying he's leaning scum but doesn't take a full stance), then decides to vote Hoopla after RH and Slepz.

This post contains a lot of fitz trying to explain his actions, while deflecting suspicion back onto either his attackers or another user.

- And why say bandwagon hoppers need to go immediately after hopping on my bandwagon...do you need to go?
- Furry's 'case' on me does make me a little leery of him but not enough to move my vote.
- The same could be said for your (and nikanor's) criticisms and votes on me. I.e. your point is worthless.
- @Furry...what is your take on xRECONERx. He appears to have ignored the PGO claim intially as well and has done a much better job of "continuing to take up space instead of contribute" than the two RV post you called me out for.

This post too.

Hoopla...your suspicions towards me amount to nothing more than OMGUS reasoning
Nikanor.... *snip* That seems a bit a contradiction...which I find suspcious.
xRECKONERx...Why do I annoy you? You should postmore content or else Furry will not be happy.

And this in response to Jacob caling him scum.

Based on the time you have put into the game I can understand this profound and insightful analysis. Bravo. Your exams are in for a thrashing.

A bit later, fitz says here that he'd be more suspicious of Hoopla if TBM was town. Here (right after day starts) he has a change of heart on Hoopla. During the Oso/fitz VS me/MS/Hoopla war the other day, he went back to suspecting Hoopla. Then yesterday he jumps back on thinking she is town. Changing his mind to fit the most optimal strategies.

I may also mention that fitz found Gwyn the least suspicious player (here and here. He never joins that wagon. Neither did I, but a quick series of votes always pings my scumdar a bit and at least I expressed willingness to hammer (and would have, had he not been hammered by someone else - your choice on whether to believe me or not).

Then there's the walls of text where he defends Oso extremely hard. Like I said, fitz switching to Oso would be suicide for him, so he chose to defend him and try to get me lynched (and probably settle for Hoopla at that point). Townies don't know anything but their own alignment (Hoopla even put Nik at only 99%), but fitz defended Oso like he knew he was town. Which, he did.

That's about all I have without going deep in-depth into posts, as I did skim some of his longer ones.

fitz's case on me will probably include me not hammering Gwyn (explained a few paragraphs up), trying to save Jacob (explained, was a misconception due to being in one game onsite with a SK and I hammered after convincing arguments), and switching suddenly to Oso on that one day (Hoopla made a convincing case, persuading both MS and myself). Interested in hearing what he throws together.

[Hoopla]

I admit fitz' early play is exactly the reaction I was searching for from my claim. Coupled with his blatant flipflopping throughout the game on my role, they are decent behavioural tells to help top up a case - but I feel this is all it should be, as we will extract more conclusive evidence from vote counts and bandwagons, in my opinion. I've been basing all my views on this game under the guise of a 3 player scumteam, which has led me astray searching for impossible scumteams. Luckily, nothing damaging comes about from the incorrect assumption of the size of the scumteam, as being wrong gives you an extra day regardless. But the game changes quite a lot now - a two player scumteam plays very differently from a larger group as their individual survival is far more important.

One particularly illuminating passage of play was Gwyn's posts through page 5 (here). The vote count is a relevant reference point to these thoughts, so I'll post it now;

Page 5 Vote Count:

havingfitz (4):

Furry, Hoopla, Nikanor

, InflatablePie

Hoopla

(3):

Radical Hijinx, Slepz

, havingfitz

Slepz

(2):

Gwynplaine

,

xRECKONERx

Radical Hijinx

(2):

Oso, q21

Nonvoters:

JacobSavage

The reason this passage of play is important is because Gwyn has decent interactions with both InflatablePie and havingfitz, which is critical if havingfitz is scum, because he has four votes and comes under increasing pressure that page from his psuedo-policy stance on my role. So, the question to ask is, how would Gwyn react if his only partner was leading the vote count (with possibly more to come - I think this is a key point)? He has a snide back and forth with InflatablePie, which feels contrived, but would be a guess either way on it's motivation. Then, later in the page he references havingfitz' policy stance;

Show me where I have called my stance "policy".

Just because you don't call it that doesn't mean the rest of us can't.

You're voting for Hoopla based only on her roleclaim. You don't seem to be considering her other posts at all. This makes me think you'd be voting for anybody who'd claimed PGO in their first post, regardless of who they were or what else they posted. That may not be a policy lynch by your definition, but arguments against policy lynches easily double as arguments against your position.

Interestingly, Gwyn was the one to initiate this piece of interaction, which reads two ways. It looks like an attack, but it also looks like possible coaching, as if to say 'hey, drop it, you're going to get yourself lynched, damnit!'. Initially I interpretted it more as an attack, and that Gwyn

wouldn't

do this if havingfitz was his partner, because it was potentially risky drop of fuel to add to the fire. Then my opinion slowly shifted toward it being a potential pre-emptive bus or a way to diffuse or clarify the situation, which would suggest a havingfitz partner. But I think I was looking at this the wrong way altogether. A far more substancial clue in this puzzling piece of play, is that Gwynplaine is actively lurking, deliberately dishing up nothing posts that seem like something. This serves as a defense mechanism for whichever way the havingfitz wagon goes, as ambiguous and non-relevant posts keep his options open, which deep down is a very scum-like mentality. An attack or defense on havingfitz then would have closed off one option for Gwyn - this is what indicates havingfitz is his partner.

This belief is quanitified as we tick over to page 6. Gwyn's vote on Jacob seems very obviously like scum seeking the refuge on a safe vote;

Wee, the only non voter!

And I must say

vote:Slepz

To make everything nice an symmetrical

This is the worst post of the game so far.

Vote: JacobSavage

This is a brilliant opportunity for scum to kickstart a new wagon. Granted, this is something townies could and should jump on, but after his odd non-commital page 5 play, such a swing in decisiveness points to him being edgy around the havingfitz wagon.

*^*^*^*^*^*^*^*^*^*

InflatablePie, do you remember this post (on page 8);

Nik asking certain people to switch their vote is a bit odd. Makes me sad that I didn't get an invitation either. I feel like that weirdo kid in high school that's really quiet and no one likes him or talks to him and he doesn't get a heads-up on the parties going on even though he wouldn't really mind going... which I was, but that's not the point.

Gwyn switching over so easily also seems off, especially because of the weird reason he was voting for Slepz in the first place...

Do you remember your thought process behind this? Why did Gwyn's vote seem strange?

[Hoopla]

The way Day 4 unfolded was probably the most telling of the game, I feel. We had just lynched Gwynplaine the previous day, so it was at this point the scumteam was down to one. That person must have known they needed two mislynches to win, which should indicate a specific style of play. Fortunately, for the sake of analysis, two wagons sprung up on havingfitz and InflatablePie, which is a juicy passage of information as far as I'm concerned, as both those wagons were brought about in two different ways.

I'll be getting to this in detail after I finish work, and also want to take a deeper look at Gwyn's lynch, because I think I am missing some clues there. While I'm away, I wouldn't mind seeing both of your takes on how Day 4 went, because you both were wagoned, and in the end neither of you were lynched. I think this is a very important day to analyse and would like it to be touched upon.

[InflatablePie]

I don't remember my thought process exactly, but I haven't even had my morning coffee today.

I'll try and remember it and post D4-related stuff after I get off of work tonight.

[yabbaguy]

CNN--Mob Terrorizes Boston, Police Dept. Criticized

Massachusetts currently doesn't support the death penalty, but one determined group is taking justice into their own hands and bringing it back.

Using the traditional method of hanging, mostly, a mob has been formed by Boston citizens and people suspected of being from violence clans, the Mafia being the most prominent target of the mob's justice methodry.

"It's absolutely despicable that they decide to circumvent justice, but give them credit, I've heard they've successfully found two threats to Boston already", says police chief Marcus McPherson.

The police department of Boston is being criticized for failing to intervene with the mob's practices. 9 casualties have been reported to be a direct result of the formation of this mob, 7 of them being Boston citizens. Police departments from surrounding neighborhoods are now assisting in trying to find the members of the lynch mob before more deaths result.

Vote Count:

2 to lynch

havingfitz (1): InflatablePie
InflatablePie (1): havingfitz

Nonvoters: Hoopla

Deadline: 7/23 @ 6 PM GMT-4. Watch that clock.

[InflatablePie]

I don't remember what I meant by "weird reason he was voting Slepz in the first place", but Gwyn going from Slepz to jacob to Slepz (right?) seemed really weird. Especially since Nik asked and Gwyn just went right along with it.

I don't have many thoughts on D4 besides what I've already said about fitz's superbuddying of Oso. I can probably go back and analyze that day tomorrow, but I do work most of the day (again).

Going to sleep because 8 hour+ shifts suck.

[Hoopla]

InflatablePie: Ever played in a 2:1:9 before (as town or scum)?

[Hoopla]

Also, I've reread through Day 4 and the Gwynplaine wagon, and finished off colouring in and analysing the vote counts. I was contemplating typing up my findings, but I think at the moment it is in my interest to keep my cards close, because I don't have to convince anyone but myself. I'm getting closer to sure, leaning one way 80/20, I would say. I will post some questions that need answering when they arise, but for the most part I don't think they're answerable, as the tells and analysis are based on vote-counts and wagon theory, which generally focuses on things you don't know you're doing.

[havingfitz]

Busy weekend so posting is at a minimum. Started a reread and am posting some thoughts as I go along.

I see IP is the last person to join the game. The fact the game started on a Friday and his first post was the following Monday isn’t necessarily the scummiest thing in the world; however, the fact that he was active on the site that same weekend and did not even bother with an introductory post or hey…I’ll be commenting soon, is in hindsight..very scummy. Waiting to see how thing are progressing and pick your route.

I find his initial suspicion/vote (post 57) on me interesting as he bases it on the fact I unvoted (like Oso) and points out that this was first brought up by Hoopla. Then a few posts later (#62) he adds meat to his vote with some ridiculous comment about not explaining my unvote further (and btw…at the point of the game that IP has entered…I did have a vote out…on Hoopla). Why do I need to explain an unvote further that is no longer even in effect? He accuses my Hoopla vote of being countervoting (despite the fact I had expressed doubts about the PGO claim pre-Hoopla’s vote on me) and makes no comment about Hoopla’s vote on me made with absolutely zero reason. Then in the very next post (#63) accuses me of trying to blend in because of my unvote (ridiculous) and my ‘BW’ vote on Hoopla….despite the fact he was displaying the same ‘blending in’ with his suspicions of me (initially brought up by Hoopla) and his ‘BW’ vote on me.

tl;dr

- IP is purposefully late to enter the game and finding others suspicious for actions he is committing as well. IP is scum.

---

Further on Hoopla says,

Town doesn't know if I am truthful or not, though. Scum does.

Which provides ample information for early on D1, because scum's natural position will be somewhere from in the middle to pro-policy lynch, because they cannot afford to keep me alive. havingfitz and possibly someone like q21 are good character models for what I expected from scum, and would make delicious D1 lynches (from my perspective).

If at any point in this game I have acted like I’m certain you are truthful I’d like it pointed out to me. Especially on D4 (which I have yet to reread) when under the assumption we were in a 3 scum game and had 2 remaining…you had to be considered. IP on the otherhand with the knowledge your claim was legitimate choose to attack the most townish player in the game (Oso) and cast suspicions on the person who did not think the most townish player in the game was scum. Instead…IP chooses to ignore the people who had just mislynched town. Sure…don’t give me a clean pass, but why ignore (FIPPOV + the realization there is only one scum left in the game) the possibility that either MS or Hoopla are the last scum?

Will continue read and post more later. But feel free to hammer IP at anytime and win the game Hoopla. Also…feel free to ask questions. IP is scum.

[Hoopla]

What timezone are you in fitz? When are you usually online?