Open 226: Big Love - Game over! Town wins!


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Post Post #1400 (ISO) » Thu Nov 04, 2010 10:39 am

Post by Ythill »

Updated for your viewing pleasure. I also combined the Wacka/Miyu isos into a single point so as to correct a math error.
  • My initial reread implicated Miyu and
    mallow. Also
    ZF.
  • My (D5) VC analysis implicated
    mallow and David. Also
    Miyu, ZF, and RC.
  • The Chi iso implicated
    mallow. Also Muutha, David, and
    ZF.
  • The SV iso implicated
    mallow. Also
    Miyu.
  • The Fidelis situation implicated: Miyu, ZF, and Sanx. Also
    mallow and
    RC.
  • The D1 lover-bus implicated one of ZF/Miyu/Sanx/
    David + mallow (in hindsight, it looks to be David + mallow)
    .
  • The Wacka iso made Miyu look scummy, but
    if she's scum, mallow is town
    . The Miyu iso showed her to be a strategic player and slightly scummy, but nothing damning.
    Plus opened my eyes to David.

  • The ZF iso made him look a little scummy, but also presented a couple of town caveats and
    ruled him out as buddies with mallow
    .
  • My D6 VC analysis implicated Red and Miyu. To a lesser extent, ZF and DGB.
  • Analysis of mod iso 48 implicates Miyu, Red, and ZF.
  • My post density analysis implicates Red and ZF. To a lesser extent, Miyu.
  • Analysis of the SV quicklynch implicates ZF and Miyu.
  • The Sanx iso was inconclusive... null leaning town.
  • The smash/Red iso makes him look town.
  • As a side note, both ZF and Miyu have seemed like they tasted sour grapes today, while Red has been hunting.
It seems obvious that we have two scumz between Miyu/ZF/Red. I'm calling Sand and DGB -def-town as of this post and will not consider lynching either of them.

Miyu was implicated by 10/15 points of analysis and was cleared by none. She has been flirting with the lynch for days, pushed by a large number of now-confirmed town, but has managed to avoid that fate with a townie dying in her stead each time. Her play today suggests that she's scum with no experience going up against confirmed townies. I'd say she's tied with ZF for most likely scum, individually.

ZF was implicated by 11/15 points of analysis and was cleared by some minor caveats in his iso. His posting patterns in the early game suggest that he is scum who intended to bus chi but not SV, and then he ramped up his effort to help turn the tide of the game away from a Miyu lynch. His play today has been abyssmal, and suggests that he's scum who has given up on the game.

Red was implicated by 5/15 point of analysis and cleared by two, including seeming heavily town in his own iso. If he's scum, he's very good at this game.

A Miyu-ZF scumteam looks most likley based on my own analysis. However, there's a little voice in the back of my head screaming that a David kill
makes absolutely no sense
from a Miyu-ZF team, and my results could have been tainted by confirmation bias. I'd like
everyone
to note whom they will and will-not vote for. I'd also like to read hito's promised analysis and conclusions. We should do this quickly so that we have time to vote before deadline.
Record:
Town 10W/15L
Scum 4W/1L
Other 2W/2L
Newbie 1L


"So yeah, it is a sign from the angels." ~CooLDoG
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Post Post #1401 (ISO) » Thu Nov 04, 2010 7:47 pm

Post by Miyu »

Again. What do the numbers mean? Because they look pretty arbitrary.

Sandman is not town. This so called "logic" that you have, pretty much makes we want to bang my head against a brickwall because it is so obviously flawed.
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Post Post #1402 (ISO) » Thu Nov 04, 2010 7:50 pm

Post by Miyu »

Also. Where are Sandman and ZF? Should they of been prodded?
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Post Post #1403 (ISO) » Thu Nov 04, 2010 7:59 pm

Post by hitogoroshi »

I'd also like to read hito's promised analysis and conclusions.
Yeah sorry for the delay, two tests in two days T.T. Sometime today (the 5th) I should get it out there.

Why doesn't a DP kill make sense for a Miyu-ZF scumteam?
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Post Post #1404 (ISO) » Thu Nov 04, 2010 9:30 pm

Post by Ythill »

My main suspects were mallow, DP, Miyu, and ZF.
Record:
Town 10W/15L
Scum 4W/1L
Other 2W/2L
Newbie 1L


"So yeah, it is a sign from the angels." ~CooLDoG
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Post Post #1405 (ISO) » Fri Nov 05, 2010 7:11 am

Post by DrippingGoofball »

Miyu wrote:Again. What do the numbers mean? Because they look pretty arbitrary.
1/P{scum} * 100
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Post Post #1406 (ISO) » Fri Nov 05, 2010 1:12 pm

Post by hitogoroshi »

I am sick and tired so I'm just gonna throw this up here

Miyu's mentions of ZF

Iso 2 wrote: Zero. About your Xite/Millar/Robo buddying being too close for comfort. Who of those three did/do you think are scum?
Zero. Your #533-536 mention others more than Chihuahua. Why did you find Chihuahua scummy?
Iso 3 wrote: - Zero. Your 'I think we should vote for Xite's slot today' when SVscum is a candidate, is scummy. You didn't even vote for Xite's slot..

Sanxion, Zero, Robo, and David are up on suspicion.
Iso 4 wrote: - Zero. About your Xite/Millar/Robo buddying being too close for comfort. Who of those three did/do you think are scum?
- Zero. Your #533-536 mention others more than Chihuahua. Why did you find Chihuahua scummy?
ISO 10 wrote: Zero. That isn't what I'm saying at all. I don't think a replacee's actions should be completely void upon being replaced. My point is that I don't read the play of who I am replacing. I'll read a random post, because I'll just be reading and then look to see who wrote it - but I try to stay away from reading the posts of whom I am replacing. Why? Because I don't find it productive - how am I to gain an uncolored read of my predecessor when I already know their alignment? I don't see how reading my predecessor's play is going to help me gain a read on the other players.
ISO 69 wrote:Sandman is scum. Partner is either SanxionDGB or ZF.
ISO 72 wrote:Also. Where are Sandman and ZF? Should they of been prodded?
Not sure what to make of the long break. Sorry, but my mind is too cloudy to make any solid judgments off of this right now.
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Post Post #1407 (ISO) » Fri Nov 05, 2010 8:03 pm

Post by Miyu »

Like I said. Completely arbitrary.
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Post Post #1408 (ISO) » Fri Nov 05, 2010 9:53 pm

Post by Ythill »

Your mom's completely arbitrary. :P
Record:
Town 10W/15L
Scum 4W/1L
Other 2W/2L
Newbie 1L


"So yeah, it is a sign from the angels." ~CooLDoG
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Post Post #1409 (ISO) » Fri Nov 05, 2010 9:55 pm

Post by Ythill »

Deadline in 2 days, peeps.
Record:
Town 10W/15L
Scum 4W/1L
Other 2W/2L
Newbie 1L


"So yeah, it is a sign from the angels." ~CooLDoG
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Post Post #1410 (ISO) » Fri Nov 05, 2010 11:56 pm

Post by RedCoyote »

Ythill 1400 wrote:I'd like
everyone
to note whom they will and will-not vote for. I'd also like to read hito's promised analysis and conclusions. We should do this quickly so that we have time to vote before deadline.
I actually think ZF might be a better lynch in this scenario. From my reading of the thread, it seems to me like he is the most flexible, as it were, in regards to the rest of the game. He can be partnered with virtually every remaining player to a reasonable degree. Wacka, upon reread, does seem like the most likely scum candidate at this point. Ythil and hito have both pointed to particularly incriminating positions that Wacka left Miyu with.

Unfortunately I do think Miyu is being subject to a level of confirmation bias. I must stand behind my original read of her replacing in as townie. That doesn't mean, however, that Wacka, upon reread, looks better. Miyu's been dealt a crummy hand and that's bound to frustrate anyone.

I'm glad that DGB is just as uncomfortable with the first lynch of this game as I am, and I sympathize with her hesistation to write me off (as I was of her slot). Additionally, because of a number of concessions and changes I've had to make, this makes it all the more difficult for her. Not just SSSS, but even after I replaced in I've felt like I was just floating through the game. I've been able to get no successful read on any player so far, and if Miyu is scum and DGB town like I expect them to be, then that just completely turns every read I've had in this game on its head.

But to answer your question, Ythill, who should be voted or not? Well, I'd vote for anyone who doesn't have a color in their name. It would be foolish to vote against you and hito today.
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Post Post #1411 (ISO) » Sat Nov 06, 2010 12:54 am

Post by Ythill »

:igmeou:
Record:
Town 10W/15L
Scum 4W/1L
Other 2W/2L
Newbie 1L


"So yeah, it is a sign from the angels." ~CooLDoG
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Post Post #1412 (ISO) » Sat Nov 06, 2010 3:56 am

Post by DrippingGoofball »

VOTE: Miyu

and her buddy is RedCoyote.
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Post Post #1413 (ISO) » Sat Nov 06, 2010 5:59 am

Post by DizzyIzzyB13 »

Day Six Vote Count #2

  • Miyu (DrippingGoofball) 1 L-3
Not voting: hitogoroshi, Miyu, Mr. Sandman, RedCoyote, Ythill, ZeroFang

With 7 alive, 4 votes are required for a lynch.

V/LA:



Activity Check!


DFrippingGoofball replaces Sanxion! Welcome her to the game, guys!

Prod Count:


Muthaa, smashbro_of_the_SSS - 2

chihuahua0, millar13, Pittbunny, Reverse Simplicity, Sanxion, Shattered Viewpoint, Switz, youngminii - 1


Deadline for Day 6 is Sunday, 7th November at 8pm UK time.


This is being posted at roughly 5pm UK time. You have 27 hours.
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Post Post #1414 (ISO) » Sat Nov 06, 2010 9:17 am

Post by Ythill »

VOTE: Miyu
Record:
Town 10W/15L
Scum 4W/1L
Other 2W/2L
Newbie 1L


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Post Post #1415 (ISO) » Sat Nov 06, 2010 12:53 pm

Post by hitogoroshi »

VOTE: Miyu

On the whole, I still think RC is a little more likely of a buddy than ZF. That being said, ZF completely abandoning the thread does seem more scummy than anything.
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Post Post #1416 (ISO) » Sat Nov 06, 2010 12:57 pm

Post by Ythill »

RC's latest post
was
dripping with scumminess. Meh. DGB will make a good decision. I'm ready to die.

Hammer plox.
Record:
Town 10W/15L
Scum 4W/1L
Other 2W/2L
Newbie 1L


"So yeah, it is a sign from the angels." ~CooLDoG
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Post Post #1417 (ISO) » Sun Nov 07, 2010 3:46 am

Post by Mr.Sandman »

vote Miyu


And I agree with Ythill about RC's last post.
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Post Post #1418 (ISO) » Sun Nov 07, 2010 5:34 am

Post by RedCoyote »

Why? Why wouldn't I vote with Ythill and hito?

vote: Miyu
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Post Post #1419 (ISO) » Sun Nov 07, 2010 5:41 am

Post by RedCoyote »

And just putting off the inevitable decision of deciding between me and ZF (as it looks like it's going to be) seems a little short-sighted. It's the "harder" decision, as it were. ZF scum would've naturally went with Miyu, I think, because there's the stronger case against her.
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Post Post #1420 (ISO) » Sun Nov 07, 2010 10:40 am

Post by Ythill »

@Red:
The scumminess of your post is obvious to several people and is something for you to discuss tomorrow. I did intend to be involved in the decision of who to lynch tomorrow but DGB has arrived. If she's scum, I don't think there's any hope for a town win. If she's town, I trust her to make the correct decision.

@DGB:
Please use our analyses wisely. The last scum is either ZF or Red. Good luck.

@Sandman:
More investment tomorrow, please.

Goodnight.
Record:
Town 10W/15L
Scum 4W/1L
Other 2W/2L
Newbie 1L


"So yeah, it is a sign from the angels." ~CooLDoG
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Post Post #1421 (ISO) » Sun Nov 07, 2010 4:08 pm

Post by Miyu »

*dies laughing*
This game, wow. Full of idiots. Sandman. Oh man. Wow. Just wow.
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Post Post #1422 (ISO) » Sun Nov 07, 2010 6:09 pm

Post by Ythill »

So... who's paying for dinner? *crosses fingers*
Record:
Town 10W/15L
Scum 4W/1L
Other 2W/2L
Newbie 1L


"So yeah, it is a sign from the angels." ~CooLDoG
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Post Post #1423 (ISO) » Sun Nov 07, 2010 6:35 pm

Post by Miyu »

You are.
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Post Post #1424 (ISO) » Sun Nov 07, 2010 7:42 pm

Post by RedCoyote »

I don't care if 1 person or 100 people said it was scummy, it doesn't make one lick of difference if I don't know why.

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