Open 267- Lovers Mafia- Game Over

[Lateralus22]

Concering trusting town with reads: "Shrugs" why not? When you're town you would do the same no?

Concerning getting a better read on chk/David: You're reading up on them this phase. I'd prefer sometime soon.

Why is chk a town read of yours?

[Mitsuru Kirijo]

Voting:
Hiraki: (2) Lateralus22 drmyshottyizsik,
drmyshottyizsik:(3) Hiraki, Empking, chkflip
Lateralus22: (1) DavidParker

With 6 alive it takes 4 to lynch.

[drmyshottyizsik]

hiraki amp and chk why am i scum again?

[Hiraki]

1. "RVS" Vote and Chkflip warning
2. Definitions of IIoA and Active Lurking
3. Question Avoidance and Insulting my Intelligence, and still not answering the question

@Lateralus: When chkflip posts his big post, I'll get to mine. Sound fair?

[Empking]

hiraki amp and chk why am i scum again?

Hikari posted a big(ish) case against you and your only reaction was calling it a bunch of IIOA (which you later agreed it wasn't). Honestly though, I'm not liking DP's jump off Hikari along with her (IMO) poor read on chk.

Unvote

Vote; Hikari

[DavidParker]

I'm getting close to a point where I'd be willing to hammer Hitachi, but I'm still irked by the possibilities of any of Later/Emp/chk being the scum pair tomorrow if Hiraki flips town. I guess 2/3 is decent odds for tomorrow though.

Anyone opposed to me hammering ?

[chkflip]

Not me. I was willing to hammer, actually. Was building a case, am at page 3, but I've got to go to uni soon.

[Empking]

Not me. I was willing to hammer, actually. Was building a case, am at page 3, but I've got to go to uni soon.

Bull.

I'm kinda sad now that I've been voting Shotty along with the two scum

[DavidParker]

How does this work. The only one not on the Hiraki wagon or willing to hammer is Later at this point. Or me/chk is lying about being willing to hammer.

Or someone on Hiraki's wagon is playing a HUGE bluff/gambit (unlikely).

Do you see a case for a hiraki+later scum pair?

[Empking]

How does this work. The only one not on the Hiraki wagon or willing to hammer is Later at this point. Or me/chk is lying about being willing to hammer.

Or someone on Hiraki's wagon is playing a HUGE bluff/gambit (unlikely).

Do you see a case for a hiraki+later scum pair?

chk is clearly lying about being willing to hammer.

[Hiraki]

Not me. I was willing to hammer, actually. Was building a case, am at page 3, but I've got to go to uni soon.

Bull.

I'm kinda sad now that I've been voting Shotty along with the two scum

What?

Let me get this straight. You're voting me because DP has left my wagon, and I haven't given a

full

read on Chkflip, mostly because he hasn't posted his case/post yet. It's not like that will have an impact on what I think about him, amirite?

[chkflip]

- Well, initially, I was going to do a synopsis on everyone's play thus far, but something stuck out to me. Something that made everything go 'click'.

@Lateralus: When chkflip posts his big post, I'll get to mine. Sound fair?

- Seemingly harmless, yes? Of course. But why, oh why, would he be stalling in wait for my post? Is it because he thinks it will change his mind? That's an obvious 'no' by the way he's talking afterward. What does that leave? Scum biding time.

You're voting me when I haven't been able to explain myself. This isn't nice.

- The beginning of the derailing of his towny facade. He didn't seem to give two spits about Later voting me off the bat, but when it's him? Oh now it's a problem. Sure, it could be simply because he's self-centered, but methinks this is the first scumslip of many.

He's switching sides a little. Of course this is only one post, and I would've liked to not elaborate on this, to be quite honest.

- Ooh, and he was going to allow me to "dig my own grave" (paraphrasing) and allow some flaw he thought he saw build up into a grand ol' mislynch case. And this is him pouting about it.

Especially since two people haven’t confirmed yet.

- Him trying ever so hard to make up for his flaws by saying something "townie".

- Often forgetful, having missed posts, overlooked players, the whole lot. He even jokes about how one of his excuses is a scumtell, further trying to pull the wool over our eyes.

Honestly. This is a horrible case on me.

- I still don't think the aforementioned case was

horrible

, but insulting DP wasn't enough. Then tries to blast me for agreeing with David.

First off, he's looking at who's watching the thread, which isn't really a huge scum tell, but it's still one.

Because no one should ever put in their case that someone is watching the thread but not posting.

- Huge contradiction, much?

- This is about where my hammer vote was going to go, which, at the time, would've only been the third vote on Hiraki. I am still fully willing to do so.

- Personally, I see a decent case for hiraki/lateral scumteam.

@emp:
- Still think I was lying?

[chkflip]

EBWODP

! I hate Works Word Processor... stupid unique quotes messing up my post. Rah.

- Well, initially, I was going to do a synopsis on everyone's play thus far, but something stuck out to me. Something that made everything go 'click'.

@Lateralus: When chkflip posts his big post, I'll get to mine. Sound fair?

- Seemingly harmless, yes? Of course. But why, oh why, would he be stalling in wait for my post? Is it because he thinks it will change his mind? That's an obvious 'no' by the way he's talking afterward. What does that leave? Scum biding time.

You're voting me when I haven't been able to explain myself. This isn't nice.

- The beginning of the derailing of his towny facade. He didn't seem to give two spits about Later voting me off the bat, but when it's him? Oh now it's a problem. Sure, it could be simply because he's self-centered, but methinks this is the first scumslip of many.

He's switching sides a little. Of course this is only one post, and I would've liked to not elaborate on this, to be quite honest.

- Ooh, and he was going to allow me to "dig my own grave" (paraphrasing) and allow some flaw he thought he saw build up into a grand ol' mislynch case. And this is him pouting about it.

Especially since two people haven’t confirmed yet.

- Him trying ever so hard to make up for his flaws by saying something "townie".

- Often forgetful, having missed posts, overlooked players, the whole lot. He even jokes about how one of his excuses is a scumtell, further trying to pull the wool over our eyes.

Honestly. This is a horrible case on me.

- I still don't think the aforementioned case was

horrible

, but insulting DP wasn't enough. Then tries to blast me for agreeing with David.

First off, he's looking at who's watching the thread, which isn't really a huge scum tell, but it's still one.

Because no one should ever put in their case that someone is watching the thread but not posting.

- Huge contradiction, much?

- This is about where my hammer vote was going to go, which, at the time, would've only been the third vote on Hiraki. I am still fully willing to do so.

- Personally, I see a decent case for hiraki/lateral scumteam.

@emp:
- Still think I was lying?

[Hiraki]

I hate Works Word Processor... stupid unique quotes messing up my post. Rah.

II---

- Well, initially, I was going to do a synopsis on everyone's play thus far, but something stuck out to me. Something that made everything go 'click'.

Bad you. There was a point of you waiting to do a synopsis of everyone's play. Compare and Contrast. I'm bawing.

- Seemingly harmless, yes? Of course. But why, oh why, would he be stalling in wait for my post? Is it because he thinks it will change his mind? That's an obvious 'no' by the way he's talking afterward. What does that leave? Scum biding time.

Or I did think it'll change my mind. Perhaps you wouldn't post it.

- The beginning of the derailing of his towny facade. He didn't seem to give two spits about Later voting me off the bat, but when it's him? Oh now it's a problem. Sure, it could be simply because he's self-centered, but methinks this is the first scumslip of many.

First off, this is one of my first posts. If I looked townie from my first post, which I can considerably was quite fency, then I don't know what to do here.

Second off, of course it's a problem when it's me. Am I supposed to randomly defend you after 2-3 posts? I wasn't sure of your alignment after a few posts, and I needed more. Therefore, I was more concerned about myself than you. I don't like to assume. Oh, and "of many" makes me laugh a little. If I've scum-slipped

this

much, then why were you agreeing with me two posts back? Nonetheless, let's move on and sees these "slips".

- Ooh, and he was going to allow me to "dig my own grave" (paraphrasing) and allow some flaw he thought he saw build up into a grand ol' mislynch case. And this is him pouting about it.

Because I totally suspected you right after it. I'm not totally sure what you mean after that. Could you explain?

- Him trying ever so hard to make up for his flaws by saying something "townie".

Or I could just be trying to be decent. If I honestly made this many flaws on the first page that are totally "scummy", then why does it take it until Page 6 for you to suspect me? Answer. These really aren't that scummy.

- Often forgetful, having missed posts, overlooked players, the whole lot. He even jokes about how one of his excuses is a scumtell, further trying to pull the wool over our eyes.

Or add a bit of sarcasm, either or.

- I still don't think the aforementioned case was

horrible

, but insulting DP wasn't enough. Then tries to blast me for agreeing with David.

I explained this in a post to Lateralus. To quote myself,

That was a mistake on my part for not proofreading because I was on my iPod. What I meant to say was that I don't want to make a large post on Shotty now. His counter-argument looked pretty poor from my skim. I still stand by that too.

There's honestly too many things wrong in that case to allow me to fathom how you believe it's not a horrible case.

First off, he's looking at who's watching the thread, which isn't really a huge scum tell, but it's still one.

Because no one should ever put in their case that someone is watching the thread but not posting.

- Huge contradiction, much?

No. The first quote is referring to Shotty, who is doing the action. The second is referring to someone else(In response to Shotty from another player? I'd need to check) where I state this. I don't really see the contradiction. This is mainly just taken out of context.

After that I'm not sure what to think. Let's go into my investigations anyway, because apparently not talking about Chkflip is scummy, which btw. is total bullshit because I've said barely anything about Empking. Thank you for pointing that out, DP.

Before this post, I had a town read on Chkflip. He seemed like a pretty normal dude, and nothing too highly suspicious or anything of the like.

The argument that I saw between Chkflip and Lateralus looked bigger than what it actually seems to be. Unfortunately, I don't have much to comment. There wasn't really an argument there that puts one toward an alignment.

- The fact that Shotty is so jumpy doesn't alarm me, as I've played a game with him before. It does strike me that he'd put himself on the plate like that, however, as if to push that he's so town that he'll sacrifice himself when that couldn't be further from helpful right now.

- I've got my eye on shotty for that very reason.

I haven't looked at many of Shotty's games, and I don't like using meta. But, I don't see how any of the two statements go to the same conclusion. It's not scummy, it's just odd that you'd agree with it.

- Out of the two L-1 wagons, if by nothing else than the way he's responding and trying so hard to be helpful, I'd say the scum wagon is more likely to shotty than hiraki

I hadn't noted this before, but I believe Chkflip just voted based on Meta. No?

...

- I'm with DP on this one. I'm completely lost on several parts of the argument.

This confirms that Chkflip is voting off of meta. If you don't understand something, why don't you ask questions about it? Ignoring something and making a vote on me just makes me go meh.

I'll need to re-assess this a few times. The reasoning that chkflip voted Shotty out of meta kind of makes me think twice about calling him town. However, that's the only thing I have against him. Everything else seems fine, from what I saw. While this may be our downfall, I'm going to label Chkflip as leaning toward town.

DP still isn't making much sense with his cases, and from both of his cases, he never seems to back them up after. That's why he's scum. Empking could be scum, but he'd be replaced by DP. Of course, Shotty is #1. The only reason I can't pin down their partner is because Empking hasn't posted a lot, and his last vote isn't making good sense to me.

[DavidParker]

@emp: if you think chk is hiraki's scum buddy, would you be opposed to lynching him today instead of hiraki? I'd personally prefer his lynch.

[drmyshottyizsik]

no DP because Hiraki if definitely scum, and i think you are his buddy

[DavidParker]

I knew shotty would come back in with his words of wisdom.

Have you even read the thread? I'm the one who has pushed the Hiraki wagon more than anyone and made the initial case on him... That would be some god-awful scum play. Even if I'm not on his wagon as we speak, that's some terrible logic of yours.

[drmyshottyizsik]

No it's not, because you jump off right before a lynch, then push another wagon trying to get a lynch on it, so that tommorow you can say that Hiraki can't be scum because the only person he would have been scum with was Chk, so then we lynch me or some one else and it's game over mafia win.

[DavidParker]

Vote: Hiraki

[Empking]

@emp: if you think chk is hiraki's scum buddy, would you be opposed to lynching him today instead of hiraki? I'd personally prefer his lynch.

I would but I think its too late.

[Mitsuru Kirijo]

Hiraki grows visibly paler as you lead him slowly to the gallows, unused since the 1800s. Once a tourist attraction, to explain the history of this quiet little suburb to historians and visitors alike, it has once again grown useful.

The old wood creaks as one person puts their arm under each of Hiraki's, holding him tight to insure he doesn't escape. Silent with fear, the occasional stammer escaping his lips, there is nothing he can do to escape his fate.

The rope wraps around his neck, the mere thread woven thick feeling like some sort of vice, which it may as well have been.

A lever is pulled, and the trapdoor opens, sending Hiraki plummeting from the platform and hanging in midair. He struggles in futile resistance for a brief moment, before he chokes, and a grotesque snap marks the end of his life. As blood trickles from his mouth, the two lovers smile softly to themselves, unseen by the town. An innocent has been killed

Hiraki,

Vanilla Townie

lynched Day 1

That night, another generic civilian dies to the lovers, mercilessly gutted and left for dead in the late Hiraki's flawless garden. Who ever said suburbia stayed clean?

It is now Day 2. With 5 alive it takes 3 to lynch.

[DavidParker]

For reference:

Voting:
Hiraki: (4) Lateralus22 drmyshottyizsik, empking, DavidParker
drmyshottyizsik:(2) Hiraki, chkflip

Initial thoughts:

Later's lack of vote-movement is VERY curious. I don't think it's scummy but he hasn't moved his vote since day 2 when he put it there. I feel scum would have been more opportunistic with their vote and tried to use it to push mislynches although it could have also been used to keep attention of him.

Emp has lurked quite a bit. I'm quite sure he is scum. He hasn't contributed much. Also the "I'm quite sure one of the two wagons is on scum, probably the shotty wagon".

Shotty... Well, he could be scum. He has played different to his normal meta, "tried" more this game it seems. Possibly apart of his scum "meta".

Chk can be linked to a large number of players. (not shotty) Especially emp.


Anyone else get the feel that emp calling CHK a liar for not being willing to hammer (ie accusing him of being hiraki's scum buddy) was emp's way of pushing a hiraki lynch (ie: make myself hammer, or justify a chk hammer later?)


So, I'm going to combine "scum-pair" analysis with "individual-scum" analysis to see where I can get...

Individually: Shotty>CHK>EMP>Later

Shotty - the whole IIoA debate and flailing around, seeming overly defensive at times
Emp - Just lurking and not contributing much when here. Very dismissive and seems to be coasting.
CHK - starts by voting for a flaker. What the heck?!?!, "Possible" scum slip

It's day one, there's a 1/6 chance that my RVS vote landed on mafia.

(I don't even know how he got 1/6.. It's 2/5, if he had typo'd it to 2/6 or 1/5 it might make sense.. but this.. hmm.
Later - Well don't see a huge case for him being scum, but also don't have a "strong" town read on him.

To be honest, the only thing stopping me voting Shotty was his last post before my hammer which actually showed some pro-town thought...

Team Investigation:

Shotty+CHK: NO. Chk was pushing his wagon on page 6 (ie near end of day). Very unlikely.
Shotty+Emp: NO. Emp pushed shotty's wagon early, calling him out for having incorrect logic in his case. Only jumped of his wagon today at a point when a Hiraki lynch had seemed more appealing than a Shotty lynch. Very unlikely.
Shotty+Later: Hello Scum. The only possible shotty scum-combo I see. But a very likely combo. Shotty's initial vote was on Later, but with no great reason to it. As stated before, Later then completely IGNORES shotty. Later's vote has NOT MOVED from Hiraki (a early page 2 vote). Shotty has played not to his town-meta. There's a lot here that I can support.
CHK+Emp: Hello other scum. Well, my problem with this team, is it's largely process of elimination. There's nothing in the game that suggests they AREN'T a scum team. Whereas I see a lot that suggests other teams aren't possible. This is a scum team I can't really make a "legit" case on. Because there's not connection or scummy lack-of-connection. Emp has lurked rather scummily, and CHK has been scummy at times. But team-wise, they've done nothing town or scum. Largely, just process of elimination.
CHK+Later: Meh town prob. CHK put later at L-1 on page 2. This could have been a gambit since it was early in the game. But it's still risky play. He does move his vote RL-days later to the now-appealing shotty wagon though. Reason I don't think they're scum: CHK keeps scum hunting vs Lateral, despite his vote being on shotty.
Emp+Later: Meh. As with all Emp-scum teams, there's not much to use to prove them, or disprove them. Emp has lurked. He was on the wagon with Later which got to L-1, but that was an early wagon that fell apart. This scum team isn't that likely, but its also not unlikely.

Shotty+Later>Emp+CHK>Emp+Later


Conclusion:
Individual scumminess suggests shotty/emp are scum. I don't have a town read on CHK or Later, but neither has been that scummy. Could have been playing a decent scum game, because I don't feel either is playing a super pro-town game. (ie: neutral reads)
Team scumminess suggests Shotty+later have a huge probability of being scum (I'd say 65-75%), Emp+chk and Later+emp have some merit due to emp's lurking and would be about equal second.

[DavidParker]

Doing this in a separate post since this is a big thing, if Later is town we insta lose now because scum have day-talk:

Vote: Laterus

[Lateralus22]

Bleh, got a little bit of time so I'm rereading. I'm town but meh, I think we lost anyway so I''ll keep it short.

[chkflip]

- How is my willingness to trim the fat a scum slip? That's an assenine claim, at best. You are, however, right about one thing. I'm no math scholar. Only in Beginning Algebra over at uni, so you've got me there.

David Parker case

- I will say that, more often than not, the "town leader" ends up being the biggest scum of them all. And you hasn't stepped off that throne since you replaced EYes on P2.

- Nothing scummy about wanting to direct town into the right direction, but the way you did strikes me to be quite interesting. Let's break it down:
-- In his first post, he votes Hiraki. Not an overtly scummy choice at the time; however, given the circumstances, the flip does bring a new light to things. The reasons for the initial Hiraki vote were wishy-washyness, buddying, missing things, and then calls out the validity of an FoS. Then, here's the kicker, he talks about how it could come from town or scum. Given the thin reasoning, why vote Hiraki if one of your biggest points could go either way?

-- In his second post, he further elaborates on Shotty's play being against his town-meta, calling his cases forced and how Shotty was speaking cautiously... yet tries to continue to justify that the weaker aforementioned reasons on Hiraki were better reasons for a lynch. Mentioning that he'd be willing to hammer Shotty could be town, but it could also be a warning to his scumbuddy (in an undertone) that he'd better start fixing his play or they'll lose.

-- Fourth post in, this is where the "Town Leader" in him comes out most. He gives his thoughts on the two L-1 wagons and begins to prophecize about them. He goes so far as to say it's obvious Hiraki and Shotty aren't scumbuddies, which, okay. I can see that since they were both on the other's wagon. What stuck out to me was this:

So if shotty is scum then either Later or myself would probably be his partner.

-- He just openly admits, under the guise of trying to lead town, that he's Shotty's partner, whilst also shoving Later's name in there so it isn't a completely red flag to all of us. Calling yourself out can be town, but I find it to be a scumtell here because of the way DP/Shotty have been acting toward one another. Compounded by the end of day shenanigans and I think I've found the scumteam. Keyword, unfortunately, is think. Shotty could very well be town... but the chances for DP seems to be thinning with every passing post.

-- Shoving "I know I'm town" down people's throats isn't the most pro-town thing to do, either. You can make your cases without having to point out the fact that you're eliminating yourself from the equation. Bringing it up like this just seems like it's yet another attempt to stay atop the Town as it's unnamed leader.

-- By the end of the fourth post, he then openly admits that he doesn't think either wagon is scummy. Throwing the word "maybe" in there haphazardly like he did just continues to try to show the fact that "HEY GUIEZ, IZ TOWNIE I SWEARS" over, and over, and over again.

-- Later, he pulls out the 50% stops with his prophecies of a Hiraki/chk/emp and Lateralus/chk/emp teams... which is okay for him to believe... if he hadn't pushed the fact that he said:

I know I'm town, so if shotty is scum his buddy would have to be Later, and I don't really feel the earlier case on Later was that strong, nor do I find him scum at this point.

-- Why the huge swing in thought over the span of eight posts? Not even a new page before he starts to question his own beliefs. And the only post that could've remotely changed that was a pro-town post made by Lateralus. Just doesn't add up to me.

-- His reasons for changing his vote to Lateralus seem to fit the description of pro-town trying to find greater scum, though there is one reason I found quite fishy that he's now even used AGAIN even after Lateralus blatantly showed him proof of himself. Lateralus ignoring Shotty. It was proven to be incorrect, yet and still he tries to use it as a strong bullet-point against Lateralus in an attempt to thwart us in this lylo situation we're in right now.

-- My personal favorite is when he again calls himself out in an effort to stay on the pro-town side of things:

I feel as if emp and I have gone completely unnoticed for the most part of this game; While I don't particularly mine being in that position, it is making it harder to read people, since both scum and town are ignoring me ;/

-- Then why hasn't there been more questions shot empking's way? Why hasn't DP looked at empking for more than a glance this whole game? Another likely scumpair here, that's why. THEN:

You seem to be avoiding emp more than anyone. You set on a town read on him?

-- Brings him up again as if he's trying to prove that emp is on HIS mind and NOT everyone else's.

-- Then, the biggest tell of them all, is how he flips back to his original vote on Hiraki without a single word. What set him off? Shotty's post calling him out as scum. There's no exchange, no debate, just the abrupt end of D1 with a townie mislynch. All because of a statement he'd later say was pro-town? No. Just... just no.

VOTE: DavidParker