I asked from my perspective, Empy. Could you see Andrew as scum in any way? Can you link to the post outlining your logic why Andrew was "cleared" town from your perspective?
2. Reading. I'm giving my thought processes. I'm not even voting you. When I'll do that I'll explain how Fenchurch and Andrew are clearly looking for the best way to help town in each of their posts.
Post 23 on my ISO.
Preview: Hoopla's not arguing in good faith when she expects me to recall a post and link to that post from memory.
Plus, if you guys want to make a point, skip the walls, because everyone else in the game does as well. - Magister Ludi
I am arguing in perfectly good faith. If you've developed strong enough tells to completely clear someone from ALL possible scumteams, then surely that logic should be fresh in your mind and easy to cite. Why on earth would you not talk about a read so strong for practically the entire game? To me it sounds like a lack of uncertainty, and I truly disbelieve you'd not consider Andrew as scum AT ALL if you were a townie, trying to work out the game.
Here is your post 23 in your ISO;
Da_Mafia_Godfather wrote:
Alduskkel wrote:
Da_Mafia_Godfather wrote:1. It confused me.
2. Town reads.
3, Its being over careful. More careful than how town would post.
1. We've been over this a billion times and no one ever convinces anyone else.
2. Yeah, well where the hell did you get those town reads? You can't just say that I look less town than other people without explaining why I look less town.
3. I quest for information. That is very typical town behavior. If I seem overly careful then I think it's more logical to think that that's just my playstyle. Feel free to meta me, I have a wiki entry.
And I am not the backup.
1. Then stop asking questions where you know I'll give that as an answer.
2. Reading. I'm giving my thought processes. I'm not even voting you.
When I'll do that I'll explain how Fenchurch and Andrew are clearly looking for the best way to help town in each of their posts
.
3. I'll do that now.
So that's the entire reason why you cleared Andrew as town? I hope Alduskkel and Fritz don't buy this rubbish.
Da_Mafia_Godfather wrote:Yes thev fact that Andrew is unambigiously town is why I consider him town. Its one reason but I consider it a pretty important one.
What does that even mean?
Seriously, if it's unambiguous, give me the straight up answer
why
he's town rather than tiptoeing around the question.
Da_Mafia_Godfather wrote:Yes thev fact that Andrew is unambigiously town is why I consider him town. Its one reason but I consider it a pretty important one.
What does that even mean?
Seriously, if it's unambiguous, give me the straight up answer
why
he's town rather than tiptoeing around the question.
Andrew wants the town to win. Therefore he is town.
Plus, if you guys want to make a point, skip the walls, because everyone else in the game does as well. - Magister Ludi
Da_Mafia_Godfather wrote:Yes thev fact that Andrew is unambigiously town is why I consider him town. Its one reason but I consider it a pretty important one.
What does that even mean?
Seriously, if it's unambiguous, give me the straight up answer
why
he's town rather than tiptoeing around the question.
Andrew wants the town to win. Therefore he is town.
EXPLAIN WHY
. YOU'RE SAYING NOTHING AND YOU KNOW YOU'RE SAYING NOTHING!!!
Da_Mafia_Godfather wrote:Yes thev fact that Andrew is unambigiously town is why I consider him town. Its one reason but I consider it a pretty important one.
What does that even mean?
Seriously, if it's unambiguous, give me the straight up answer
why
he's town rather than tiptoeing around the question.
Andrew wants the town to win. Therefore he is town.
EXPLAIN WHY
. YOU'RE SAYING NOTHING AND YOU KNOW YOU'RE SAYING NOTHING!!!
His posts express the idea that he's genuinely thinking about the game with a pro-town mindset (e.g. his back up claim idea.)
Plus, if you guys want to make a point, skip the walls, because everyone else in the game does as well. - Magister Ludi
I need not remind you that we are in lylo, andrew. But if the game is not over when all players have checked in then I guess it will be time to decide specifically between andrew94 and Fritzler.
In some ways Hoopla makes great points. As always I have to remind myself that she goes into it assuming that she is town but I cannot assume that. As an analysis from a Hoopla-town PoV, it works quite well, but I find myself doubtful because Empking's raises a very good point in 375. Is it truly believable that the two major wagons at the end of Day 1 were town driven? Possibly, if we're stupider than we think we are. Another problem is that andrew94's backup claim idea is a large town tell for him, but Hoopla's analysis implicates him.
Maybe one problem is that the primary scumhunting technique right now seems to be process of elimination instead of the normal searching for scum tells. Sure, with only 3 unconfirmed (from everyone's perspective but mine) and 2 scum it's highly tempting. Yet there must be individual scum tells out there to pick up on.
I have a 3 day weekend coming up which I will use to reread/skim the game and iso the living players (again).
The NK speculation on Stefunny doesn't roll with me. I feel like Stefunny may have been perceived as a better player than me (not saying she's not, but there is no objective test for that) because she had been confirmed for longer than me. A whole lot of people labeled me as lurky/cautious/indecisive, while Stefunny was not criticized. So the scum general opinions about our playstyles may have been the deciding factor.
The Fritzler slot is frankly hard to read due to a lack of info. But I'd say a scum read on him. Fritzler is decently active but does not actually make any cases on anyone, and if he expresses suspicion there is little to nothing to back it up. In fact, his votes on me and Fenchurch both read as straight up bandwagons.
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Alduskkel wrote:As an analysis from a Hoopla-town PoV, it works quite well, but I find myself doubtful because Empking's raises a very good point in 375. Is it truly believable that the two major wagons at the end of Day 1 were town driven? Possibly, if we're stupider than we think we are. Another problem is that andrew94's backup claim idea is a large town tell for him, but Hoopla's analysis implicates him.
The fact that Empking/Andrew were off the Fenchurch wagon in the end is a complete non-point, because they were the two least suspected players at the time. Being under no pressure enables you to stay off wagons/push others on your own accord - you essentially get to choose what happens. For almost the entirety of Day 1 this was true for Andrew, and at least true for the latter part of the day for Empking. To quantify this theory with some data;
Several months ago, I was data mining Day 1 wagons in 3:9 Mini Normals to work out how often scum were on the final Day 1 lynch. In 47 games where town reached a full seven player verdict, here were the results for a town lynch;
Nothing unexpected there really, right? Wrong. When you consider the random odds (all the votes in the game are truly random), here is what the final lynch percentages should look like;
There is a significantly staggered difference in weighting - and though the 0 scum option in this game is quite low, it is still higher than what is expected. And in a smaller game like this, the odds of this possibility occuring randomly would be higher than this, with the actual played out odds probably higher again still.
This is a subjective belief based on what I have read, but generallyle of bandwa in the 0 scum and even 1 scum games, scum have had very little pressure on themselves giving them minimal incentive to get blood on their hands from being on a lynch - generally speaking, if you can stay off a town wagon, it can be good. Likewise, I believe this is also why the 3-scum-wagon has a higher than average occurance happens - because scum have one of their buddies under pressure and have to force something through together. It is a loose theory and there are obviously exceptions, but it is a pretty basic and solid principle of bandwagon analysis, that less pressure = more options. And in many cases, staying off town wagons is a more optimal move than pushing for something.
It's important to note, that I'm not trying to argue that both scum being off the final Fenchurch lynch wagon is the likeliest scenario here - I was merely using this data to show the relevence of pressure in determining what scum do with their vote. This is why Empking/Andrew being off the Fenchurch lynch is not relevant at all. Neither were under any pressure to get on when they had Fritz and possibly me next in line, right after a wagon fell off Alduskkel.
Alduskkel wrote:Another problem is that andrew94's backup claim idea is a large town tell for him, but Hoopla's analysis implicates him.
Maybe one problem is that the primary scumhunting technique right now seems to be process of elimination instead of the normal searching for scum tells. Sure, with only 3 unconfirmed (from everyone's perspective but mine) and 2 scum it's highly tempting. Yet there must be individual scum tells out there to pick up on.
For what it's worth, I've found process of elimination to be an exceedingly helpful tool, far surpassing behavioural tells. It is very easy to get those wrong, as scum players specifically work on improving and deceiving townies in this area of the game - scum have far less direct control over process of elimination, as this entails vetting their votes/attacks/defenses and their general interactions with others players, which is much harder to prevent. I refuse to trust anyone who thinks they can consistently predict alignment solely off behavioural tells. If you think someone is scum, great - but they need to make sense with someone else as scum.
I'm not going to tell you how to play the game, but if you're using individual scumtells as the metric for determining your final reads, then you really cannot go past the way Empking has been arguing on this last page. He has been deliberately obtuse, avoiding questions with sloppy rhetoric, and when he did finally provide an answer (which was admittedly understandable), why didn't he just say it to begin with if this TRULY was his reasoning for clearing him? Why would he be so reluctant in releasing this information? He had NEVER stated Andrew was obv-town, despite trying to pedal these as his game-long beliefs.
Neither Andrew or Empking have shown any interest in trying to discover either's alignment - this is their most obvious tell. Particularly with Andrew coming out and voting Fritz without
any
thought to Empking. It really is that obvious to me, and I hope I can convince you of my perspective.
Sorry, a part of my post messed up for some reason;
Hoopla wrote:This is a subjective belief based on what I have read,
but generallyle of bandwa in the 0
scum and even 1 scum games, scum have had very little pressure on themselves giving them minimal incentive to get blood on their hands from being on a lynch - generally speaking, if you can stay off a town wagon, it can be good. Likewise, I believe this is also why the 3-scum-wagon has a higher than average
occurance happens
- because scum have one of their buddies under pressure and have to force something through together. It is a loose theory and there are obviously exceptions, but it is a pretty basic and solid principle of bandwagon analysis, that less pressure = more options. And in many cases, staying off town wagons is a more optimal move than pushing for something.
This is what that paragraph should read;
Hoopla wrote:This is a subjective belief based on what I have read, but generally in 0-scum and even 1-scum games, scum have had very little pressure on themselves giving them minimal incentive to get blood on their hands from being on a lynch - generally speaking, if you can stay off a town wagon, it can be good. Likewise, I believe this is also why the 3-scum-wagon has a higher than average occurance - because scum have one of their buddies under pressure and have to force something through together. It is a loose theory and there are obviously exceptions, but it is a pretty basic and solid principle of bandwagon analysis, that less pressure = more options. And in many cases, staying off town wagons is a more optimal move than pushing for something.
Andrew, I know, and I'll direct you to this part of my post;
Hoopla wrote:It's important to note, that I'm not trying to argue that both scum being off the final Fenchurch lynch wagon is the likeliest scenario here - I was merely using this data to show the relevence of pressure in determining what scum do with their vote. This is why Empking/Andrew being off the Fenchurch lynch is not relevant at all. Neither were under any pressure to get on when they had Fritz and possibly me next in line, right after a wagon fell off Alduskkel.
I'm not trying to use data to say all scum will be off the wagon - I'm trying to say that outcome has a higher possibility than random, because in situations where scum can get away with it, they have a tendency to stay off the wagon. If they know the lynch is between 2 or 3 people who aren't them, they have little incentive to stick their neck out one way or the other. This is what I'm trying to apply here - yourself and Empking were not lynch considerations at the end of Day 1, so it's perfectly reasonable to believe you're scum sitting back, as opposed to the unlikeliness Empking thought this was.
Andrew, she calculated the math based off of Mini games with 12 people. However, there is roughly the same ratio of Scum to town, so it should still apply.
