Open 272 - Near-Vanilla (Over!)

[Egg]

Possible scum pairs:
Andrew (2/5):
Andrew/Bella=no. Requires both bussing Batt
Andrew/AntB=yes
Andrew/Regfan=yes
Andrew/Magua=no. Requires no scum on Day 3 mislynch
Andrew/Looker=no. Requires no scum on either mislynch

Bella(2.5/5):
Bella/Andrew=no. Requires both bussing Batt
Bella/AntB=yes
Bella/Regfan=iffy, but yes
Bella/Magua=yes
Bella/Looker=no. Requires no Scum on Day 2 mislynch.

AntB(4/5):
AntB/Andrew=yes
AntB/Bella=yes
AntB/Regfan=no. Requires all three scum making up Nacho wagon Day 1.
AntB/Magua=yes
AntB/Looker=yes

Regfan(3.5/5):
Regfan/Andrew=yes
Regfan/Bella=iffy, but yes
Regfan/AntB=no. Requires all three scum making up Nacho wagon Day 1.
Regfan/Magua=yes
Regfan/Looker=yes

Magua(3/5):
Magua/Andrew=no. Requires no scum on Day 3 mislynch
Magua/Bella=yes
Magua/AntB=yes
Magua/Regfan=yes
Magua/Looker=No. Requires no scum on Day 3 mislynch.

Looker(2/5):
Looker/Andrew=no. Requires no scum on either mislynch
Looker/Bella=no. Requires no Scum on Day 2 mislynch.
Looker/AntB=yes
Looker/Regfan=yes
Looker/Magua=No. Requires no scum on Day 3 mislynch.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

AntB=Magua=7

Bella+AntB=6.5
Regfan+Magua=6.5

Andrew+AntB=6
Bella+Regfan=6
AntB=Looker=6

Andrew+Regfan=5.5
Bella+Magua=5.5
Regfan+Looker=5.5

Unvote, Vote AntB

[Egg]

dude someone being on a mislynch doesnt mean shit.
archer was on the ml but he was town

Find me any mislynch in any game where there wasn't a scum. Then tell me how many mislynches you had to look at before you found it.

[Regfan]

I haven't read Eggs recent posts but I will later tonight after I've had dinner.

I had some spare time on the bus so I'm going to run over the statistics for doctor claiming. In all of the following scenarios doctor will save jailkeeper every night and jailkeeper will follow through with the pre-organised plan. If we lynch mafia today: There would be 4 unclear VT claims. Doc. JK alive. Only three scenario can occur from this, mafia continously no-kill. Mafia continously attempt to kill. Mafia do a mix of the both stated above.

Scenario 1:

In mafia continously attempt to kill:

N3: Jailkeeper jailkeeps VT1. N3: Doc dies, VT1 becomes clear. D4: VT2 gets lynched. N4: Jailkeeper jailkeeps VT3. N4: Jailkeeper dies. VT3 becomes clear. D5: VT1 (Clear), VT3 (Clear) and VT4 (Unclear) are alive.

Automatic Win.

Scenario 2:

In mafia do a mix of both stated:

N3: Jailkeeper jailkeeps VT1. N3: Doc dies, VT1 becomes clear. D4: VT2 gets lynched. N4: Jailkeeper jailkeeps VT3. N4: No one dies. D5: VT3 gets lynched. N5: Jailkeeper jailkeeps VT4. No kill occurs. D6: Jailkeeper, VT1 (Clear), VT (Unclear) are alive.

Automatic Win.

a
Scenario 3:

In mafia continously no-kill:

N3: Jailkeeper jailkeeps VT1. N3: No one dies. D4: VT1 gets lynched. N4: Jailkeeper jailkeeps VT2. N3: No one dies. D5: VT2 gets lynched. N5: Jailkeeper jailkeeps VT3. N3: No one dies. D6: VT3 gets lynched. N5: Jailkeeper jailkeeps VT4. N3: No one dies. D6: Jailkeeper, Doctor, VT4 (Unclear) are alive.

Automatic Win.

Scenario 4:

Us not lynching mafia today:

If we don't lynch mafia today - Then all likelyhood is that the doctor claim dies tonight, putting us in a lylo position tommorow, something we would in regardless if doc claimed or not. On top of that, mafia have a high chance at hitting doctor tommorow night anyway, meaning the cons of doctor claiming are close to nill.

Therefore if the doctor claims today a mafia lynch leads to automatic win. This means mafia will lose the ability to buss each other allowing us multiple more things to hunt for when scumhunting.

I want everyone in their next post to state whether they agree or disagree with the idea of doc claiming due to this occurance and reasoning behind their decision regardless of their choice.

[Egg]

How does the doc claiming change any of those scenarios. All you really said is that if we lynch scum, my targets are clear if a kill occurs. I don't see where the claimed doc comes into play.

[Regfan]

The claimed doc comes into play by preventing you from wasting a jailblock on the doctor as well as removing any possibilty mafia has of counter claiming doctor later into the game. It will also reduce the current suspect pool allowing us a much better shot at lynching scum today and having more information to work with.

[Egg]

And what is stopping scum from claiming or counterclaiming doc in your plan? Lynching the doc is about the worst thing we could do. If I accidently jail the doc, the only way it really matters is if the scum make a bold enough move to target me.

[andrew94]

and regfan, your scernio only works if we lynch scum today, which is no.

@egg, i cannot begin to explain how flawed your logic and posts are. by your logic, if one busses all his buddies and doesnt participate in any mislynchs , that - town? erm no

[Looker]

Whoa, didn't expect topic to be back up. I'll come back after work but give me some time, there's a sandstorm in the process. Also, I have to agree with Egg in regards to claiming JKs. Back in a bit with some content.

[Egg]

Andrew, what percentage of your games have you seen a scum bus all of their buddies and never be on a mislynch? This is a serious question.

[Bella]

Official Day 1 Final Vote Tally

13 players remain; 7 votes needed for a lynch.

Battousai (7)

-

Nachomamma8

, Bella,

lord_hur

,

Archer

, Egg, andrew94,

farside22

Nachomamma8 (3)

- brokenscraps, AntB,

Battousai

Bella (2)

-

smashbro_of_the_SSS

, DavidParker

smashbro_of_the_SSS (1)

- Looker

Official Day 2 Vote Tally

11 players remain; 6 votes needed for a lynch.

ConSpiracy (6)

- brokenscraps, Magua,

farside22

,

lord_hur

, Egg, AntB

farside22 (3)

-

ConSpiracy

,

Archer

, Bella

AntB (1)

- andrew94

Egg (1)

- Looker

Official Day 3 Vote Tally

9 players remain; 5 votes needed for a lynch.

farside22 (5)

-

Archer

, Regfan, AntB, Egg, Bella

Archer (1)

- Magua

Looker (1)

-

farside22

AntB (1)

- andrew94

Yet to vote (1)

: Looker

Scorecard:

100% pro-scum voting (Off Battwagon, on Conwagon, on farsidewagon): AntB, RegFan

66% pro-scum voting (On Battwagon, on Conwagon, on farsidewagon): Egg

66% pro-scum voting: (off Battwagon, on Conwagon, off farsidewagon): Magua

33% pro-scum voting (off Battwagon, off Conwagon, off farsidewagon): Looker

33% pro-scum voting (On Battwagon, off conwagon, on farsidewahon) Bella

0% pro-scum voting record (On Battwagon, off Conwagon, off farsidewagon): andrew94

andrew94 has managed to have a perfect record. Good job.

Both AntB and Regfan's slot have perfect pro-scum voting records. I am of the opinion that we should really be deciding which of these two is scum right now, because I very much doubt that both of them are town.

[Regfan]

And what is stopping scum from claiming or counterclaiming doc in your plan? Lynching the doc is about the worst thing we could do. If I accidently jail the doc, the only way it really matters is if the scum make a bold enough move to target me.

If mafia counter-claim doctor then we're given a 50/50 opportunity to have an automatic win, the absolute worst case scenario is it ending at a threeway lylo still having a base 33% chance to win.

I understand the basis of FoS's in relation to votes in the past and whether they were on town or mafia, and sure odds might suggest that mafia is likely to vote town players then town players are but everything is situationally based. Nothing can be viewed purely as a number when it comes to that, moreso what needs to be looked into is does the vote seem 'opportunistic' or does it seem geninue. With that said I'm still making my way through a re-read, I still maintain my townread on Andrew and Bella, though I'm unsure how to view AntB and Magua at the current moment.

[andrew94]

Andrew, what percentage of your games have you seen a scum bus all of their buddies and never be on a mislynch? This is a serious question.

me in trendy and subversive
thats about it

vote antb

as i said before

[AntB]

0% pro-scum voting record (On Battwagon, off Conwagon, off farsidewagon): andrew94

This worries me more than anything. No one ever has a perfect record as town... VOTE: Andrew
I'm happy calling out Looker and Andew at this point as definitive.

I oppose the Doc claim until (s)he is 100% sure of scum being lynched.

[AntB]

And before anyone says "omg must've been an epic bus then" - I wouldn't be surprised. I know Batt will sacrifice himself to clear his buddies.

[Looker]

Andrew, what percentage of your games have you seen a scum bus all of their buddies and never be on a mislynch? This is a serious question.

• Doesn't seem that rare.

---

• Noticed a string of random votes while going through your ISO and just wanted you to know how difficult it is to utilize you as confirmed town when we never know what you're thinking. I'm still neutral when it comes to you, by the way.
  
• Also, your point system doesn't take into consideration bussing and general WIFOM and I feel that if andrew94 is scum then AntB is town and vice versa. I can't see them being both town or both remaining scum.

[Magua]

Day 4 started. Hooray!

Archer got night-killed! Hooray!

Regfan's plan: Jailkeeping messes up the maths, because a lot of it is dependent on if Egg stops a kill or not. I see where Regfan is angling -- if the doctor claims and is cc'ed, we get a 50% shot at autowin. If they claim and are not cc'ed, that gives us 2 clears and 5 unclears with 2 mafia amongst the 5 unclears, which is a 40% chance of lynching mafia (autowin) and a 25% chance of blocking the kill even if we mislynch. Leaving them hidden is only a 33% chance of lynching mafia, and only a 20% chance of blocking the kill.

On the other hand, if we don't enter into one of the autowin scenarios, doctor will die 100%, whereas the chance that the doctor will die tonight if they don't claim is only 33% (actually, probably less, since either the kill may be blocked, or the doc may be protected).

All in all, I think this is a doc-claims-if-they're-being-lynched day, that is, a normal one.

Also: VOTE: Looker

[Egg]

Magua, bus your scumbuddy. AntB is clearly being lynched today.

[Magua]

Magua, bus your scumbuddy. AntB is clearly being lynched today.

Prefer Regfan lynch to AntB lynch.

UNVOTE: Looker
VOTE: Regfan

[Regfan]

I've re-read this thread multiple times in the past few days. My doubts against Magua seem moreso paranoia than anything else. I don't understand any reason why he would make that kill choice and then come into today going after Looker lynch if Looker were his partner. I still don't see any possible partnership that can include Bella or Andrew as mafia, therefore I'll rule out any partnerships that include them. That leaves:

1. Looker - Magua. I don't see this partnership realisticly occuring due to Maguas contiual push for a Looker lynch in a position where bussing leads to almost automatic loss, therefore I'm comfortable ruling this one out.

2. Looker - AntB. Not once throughout this game has AntB had a vote or any real interaction with Looker, the few times he's mentioned him he has stated a slight FoS towads him but never any willingness to vote him. The same can be said vice-versa Looker has paid none, not even once bit of attention towards AntB, and if I'm correct he joined AntB's push against Andrew when they were having their argument. Therefore I see this partnership as most likely.

3. Magua - AntB. Yesterday Magua refrained from going into his reasoning behind his AntB town-reads, I'd still like for him to do that. On top of that he's already attempted to avoid a lynch occuring on AntB today, a position where bussing is suicidal. Again, little to no interaction has occured between this partnership so I can very easily see this being the case.

AntB is the only commonality in the most-likely mafia pairings and I'm entirely comfortable lynching him today.

Vote: AntB. That's L-1, we're not having a lynch until Magua explains his reads in greater depth and a claim occurs

[AntB]

Don't expect me to have any dignity when I'm screaming I told you so about andrew in the end game.

[Looker]

Both AntB and Regfan's slot have perfect pro-scum voting records. I am of the opinion that we should really be deciding which of these two is scum right now, because I very much doubt that both of them are town.

• I'm leaning Regfan right now, but for more than just your votecount analysis.

Magua, bus your scumbuddy. AntB is clearly being lynched today.

Prefer Regfan lynch to AntB lynch.

UNVOTE: Looker
VOTE: Regfan

• I agree with this sentiment, though I wish you'd stop throwing out baseless votes, especially when it only takes a few to lynch now.

Vote: AntB. That's L-1, we're not having a lynch until Magua explains his reads in greater depth and a claim occurs

• Callin' bullshit. Don't like how you're pushin' him to L-1 so early in the day. This is strike two for you since the bullshit you tried to pull on Magua earlier on in the game.

[Looker]

VOTE: Regfan

[inHimshallibe]

Votecount and prods incoming.

[Bella]

0% pro-scum voting record (On Battwagon, off Conwagon, off farsidewagon): andrew94

This worries me more than anything. No one ever has a perfect record as town... VOTE: Andrew
I'm happy calling out Looker and Andew at this point as definitive.

I oppose the Doc claim until (s)he is 100% sure of scum being lynched.

Uh, this is the stupidest post I've seen in a long time, which is saying something. Town has an actual motivation to not vote in pro-scum ways. Town with good reads and doing a good job are pefectly capable of achieving a good voting record. On the other hand, scum with such a record is severely sandbagging his team, and making it much harder for them to win. And you think it makes him scum?

lol.

[Bella]

By the way, I'm waiting for the vote count before I throw down a vote.