Open 272 - Near-Vanilla (Over!)

[Egg]

N1-Archer, flipped VT
N2-Andrew, flipped doc
N3-Bella, alive. someone other than Bella killed that night
N4-Magua, still alive. THERE WAS NO KILL THIS NIGHT
N5-Nobody, WIFOM games with scum

Lemme explain quick. Night 4, there was no kill.

Either:
A) Magua tried to kill
B) Scum tried to kill Magua
C) Doc stopped kill (unlikely because it means either scum went after me OR Andrew protected someone else)
D) Scum didn't kill

I tried to guage the plausibility of D last night by not jailing. There was a kill which makes me think it is less likely that scum sent "no kill" on the night that I jailed Magua.

Another thing I want to throw out is that my town read on Looker was mostly based on me thinking he was the doc. I'm not sure what I think of him now that Andrew flipped doc.

Possible scum pairs:
Bella(1.5/3):
Bella/Regfan=iffy, but yes
Bella/Magua=yes
Bella/Looker=no. Requires no Scum on Day 2 mislynch.

Regfan(2.5/3):
Regfan/Bella=iffy, but yes
Regfan/Magua=yes
Regfan/Looker=yes

Magua(2/3):
Magua/Bella=yes
Magua/Regfan=yes
Magua/Looker=No. Requires no scum on Day 3 mislynch.

Looker(1/3):
Looker/Bella=no. Requires no Scum on Day 2 mislynch.
Looker/Regfan=yes
Looker/Magua=No. Requires no scum on Day 3 mislynch.

Regfan+Magua=4.5
Bella+Magua=4
Bella+Regfan=4
Looker+Regfan=3.5

Battousai

(7) -

Nachomamma8

, Bella,

lord_hur, Archer

, Egg, andrew94,

farside22

Nachomamma8

(3) - brokenscraps, AntB,

Battousai

Bella (2) -

smashbro_of_the_SSS

, DavidParker

smashbro_of_the_SSS

(1) - Looker

ConSpiracy

(6) - brokenscraps, Magua,

farside22, lord_hur

, Egg, AntB

farside22 (3) - ConSpiracy, Archer

, Bella
AntB (1) - andrew94
Egg (1) - Looker

farside22 (5) - Archer

, Regfan, AntB, Egg, Bella

Archer

(1) - Magua
Looker (1) -

farside22

AntB (1)- andrew94

Yet to vote (1)

: Looker

Day 1:
Bella on Batt early. +Townpoints

Day 2:
Broken/Magua on mislynch. +scumpoints
Bella on losing competing town wagon with mislynch. +townpoints

Day 3:
Regfan/Bella on mislynch. +Scum points

Only thing this tells me is Bella is townier than I thought

AntB (4) - Egg, andrew94, Regfan, Bella
Regfan (1) - Looker
andrew94 (1) - AntB

Yet to vote (1): Magua

Regfan and Bella were the two on the mislynch that are still alive and not me.

I'm pretty damn convinced that the scum team is Regfan/Magua.

[Egg]

Magua/Bella is the only way I see Regfan as town. Considering Bella's interactions with Batt as a huge town tell, I don't see it. I also think I stopped Magua from killing Night 4.

Oh yeah. Looker was obvnotBattbuddy too.

I don't see myself being convinced that it's not Regfan/Magua.

[Looker]

Appreciate your analysis, Egg, and I'm going over what we've got, but I doubt I'll be placing a vote anytime soon. I'd appreciate if everyone else could do the same.

[Bella]

VOTE: Regfan.

Back to where I was yesterday.

[Magua]

VOTE: Regfan.

Back to where I was yesterday.

Yeah. Like I said, it's not Bella+Regfan.

Bella, do you think it's Regfan+Looker or Regfan+me?

Looker, why were you playing so poorly D2 to avoid drawing an NK when you're not the doctor?

[Regfan]

Egg, attempting to work out the mafia by compiling statistics from previous VCAs is utter stupidity, a vote can only be fully understood by reading it in context and working out if it seems opportunisitc or legitimate. Heck, proof of this is the fact that AntB was on every msylnch and flipped town. On top of that the fact you rule out Looker/Bella team because neither of them was on the CS lynch is incredibly dumb. It's already been proven that D2 involved two town wagons going against each other meaning mafia had no reason to propel either lynch, they could just stand back and let it occur. If anything mafia would be avoiding being seen on the D2 lynch because they know the risk of not being on it is nill.

Bella, can you unvote. The very last way I want to lose is by mafia blitzing and all the time in the game being wasted.

Honestly, I'm not seeing Magua/Bella as a possibilty at all, Magua attempted to push for her lynch throughout yesterday in a position where lynching your partner is a loss. The only possible way I can see Magua as mafia is with Looker however I can see Looker as mafia with both Magua/Bella. At the moment I'm feeling most comfortable with a Looker lynch, though if I had to judge between Bella/Magua I would say that I think Magua is town.

[Looker]

• <---Can appreciate the humor in Bella voting directly after the post in which I beseech people not to vote.
  
• @Magua: Dying sucks as much as VT as Doc.

[Magua]

Regfan, if you don't think it's me+Bella, please to be voting Looker.

kthxbai

[Egg]

Regfan, I'm not going to make this entire day about whether or not VCA TM has merit. I've used it a lot for a long time and have seen it to be VERY effective. It shouldn't over ride other forms of analysis and/or reads, but it should definitely be used along WITH those things. The fact that AntB was on all town wagons doesn't mean VCA TM will NEVER work. It just means AntB voted a lot of townies. He could be a newb, poor player, or have just had an off game. In most instances, however, Occam's Razor indicates that a player who keeps lynching town is scum. It isn't ALWAYS true. But when a player is widely seen as scum, fits as a partner with the most living players, AND is on all town lynches, it tends to be a bit much. Oh well, we were wrong. Time to move on.

Looker and Magua posted within about half an hour of each other. I feel like they could have finished off Regfan if they were scum together. Also, the way Magua talks to Looker doesn't look like scumbuddies. Dammit, I already eliminated that pair, so I guess this isn't new info.

I still think it's Magua/Regfan. Bella is already voting Refan, so I'll ask Looker. What do you think about a Magua/Regfan pair?

Everyone, what do you think about the fact that I jailed Magua Night 4?

[inHimshallibe]

Vote Count

Regfan (1) - Bella

Not Voting (4) - Egg, Looker, Magua, Regfan

[Looker]

I feel that, by voting Regfan, you're dismissing Magua as town. We've yet to conclude why there was no kill on Night 4.

[Regfan]

Magua, I'm not putting a vote up on lylo that I can't watch.

Mod, I'll be offically V/LA for 2-3 days in the next hour

[Magua]

Magua, I'm not putting a vote up on lylo that I can't watch.

Mod, I'll be offically V/LA for 2-3 days in the next hour

The absolute refusal of both you and Bella to vote Looker is not helping me decide which of you is town at all.

[Regfan]

If you are certain that Looker is indeed scum then there should be no need to attempt to read Bella or myself today. It would simply be:

1) Lynch Looker.
2) Ask Egg to jail me.
3) If a kill occurs I would be clear to you thus confirming Bella as mafia
4) If no kill occurs I get lynched and you ask Egg to jail Bella.
5) You lynch Bella the next day.

I'm going to request no one votes in the next 3 days, Egg can you explain your read on Looker.

[Magua]

If you are certain that Looker is indeed scum then there should be no need to attempt to read Bella or myself today. It would simply be:

1) Lynch Looker.
2) Ask Egg to jail me.
3) If a kill occurs I would be clear to you thus confirming Bella as mafia
4) If no kill occurs I get lynched and you ask Egg to jail Bella.
5) You lynch Bella the next day.

I'm going to request no one votes in the next 3 days, Egg can you explain your read on Looker.

This is *exactly* what I intend to do. Now vote Looker please.

[Egg]

Looker, wrong. I think that both Magua and Regfan are scum. And Magua could have been EITHER scum who tried to kill OR the NK target. I think he is scum, but nothing is confirmed right now.

Regfan, town.

Magua, why are you pressing others to vote Looker without actually doing so yourself?

[Magua]

Because I want to see which of Regfan/Bella will do it.

[Egg]

Vote Regfan

[Egg]

If I die, magua is town.

[Magua]

VOTE: Regfan

[Regfan]

You're fucking kidding me.

I said no one fucking vote

[Magua]

Oops. Misclicked.

[Egg]

Me too.

Looker, were you the real JK?

[inHimshallibe]

That's a.... a lynch!

[inHimshallibe]

Regfan - Vanilla Townie, Lynched Day 6

Battousai, Looker, and Magua - the Mafia - Win!