Mafiascum.net

Regfan wrote:3. Magua - AntB. Yesterday Magua refrained from going into his reasoning behind his AntB town-reads, I'd still like for him to do that. On top of that he's already attempted to avoid a lynch occuring on AntB today, a position where bussing is suicidal. Again, little to no interaction has occured between this partnership so I can very easily see this being the case.

AntB is the only commonality in the most-likely mafia pairings and I'm entirely comfortable lynching him today.
Vote: AntB. That's L-1, we're not having a lynch until Magua explains his reads in greater depth and a claim occurs

Bella wrote:Town with good reads and doing a good job are pefectly capable of achieving a good voting record. On the other hand, scum with such a record is severely sandbagging his team, and making it much harder for them to win. And you think it makes him scum?

Magua wrote: AntB claimed D2. Did you not get this in your reread? It figured into Conspiracy's case against farside22 and all.

Magua wrote: As to my townread on him, it's mostly meta and dumbtelling. He claims VT when run up and did little to dissuade his own lynch. It wasn't a "go ahead and lynch me guys" that you see out of scum who are trying to WIFOM the situation, but the whole "you'll be sorry when I called the whole scumteam" which is what you see out of irate town.

He's doing it again now.

Scum have every motivation to claim doc when being run up, if only to draw the cc. I simply don't believe AntB-as-scum. His play is too sincere, it's too...raw.

• Magua
  • Don't know what to think about you not liking my voting for Regfan all of a sudden despite Regfan being nowhere near a lynch and having placed AntB at L-1. I hope your forthcoming rationale is worthwhile.
• Bella
  • We have a votecount.

Regfan wrote:Magua - I have a question for you: Realistically, what pairings or mafia teams can you see occuring right now and which do you see as impossible/highly unlikely.?

Magua wrote:

Regfan wrote:Magua - I have a question for you: Realistically, what pairings or mafia teams can you see occuring right now and which do you see as impossible/highly unlikely.?

So I sat down and worked on this.

My initial reaction upon seeing Archer dead was that it's Regfan/Looker.

Scum bussing at this point is suicide, which is why I don't like Looker's Regfan vote.

So who do we have?

Egg: Clear
andrew94: Town. If andrew is scum, then he wins, because I'm not finding any situation where I'm voting for him that doesn't include him saying "trolololol im scum".

So of those who remain:

I really, really, really, really with every bone of my body want it to be Looker + someone. Like I said, I started this day thinking it was Looker + Regfan. But reading back on it, I'm beginning to entertain the notion that it's Looker + Bella. I had a strong townread on Bella D2, but since then the lurk factor has gone into overdrive, the no-vote-no-talk-vote-just-before-deadline factor has gone into overdrive, and Bella keeps pushing this VCA that seems both IIoA and retarded at the same time. If the analysis is that people who have been on more town wagons are scummier, you've got the problem with Egg being there. But that doesn't get mentioned. It's just presenting information and letting people make their own decisions instead of providing her own input.

Had to get that out of my system.

Anyways, of the pairs:

Looker + Regfan: Yes. Only sticking point here is Looker's Regfan vote.
Looker + Bella: Oh my god oh my god yes. Bella completely ignores Looker on any and all levels.
Looker + AntB: More likely now than Looker + Regfan. Looked back through AntB's ISO, and his placing of Looker is always second place -- "Looker would be ok, but I'd really prefer andrew94/farside22/etc". Not the complete blind spot that Bella seems to have for Looker though.

Regfan + Bella: Meh. Possible but unlikely. Bella does open with "We should lynch AntB or Regfan," but then doesn't do anything with it, neither agreeing with nor opposing the AntB wagon, so it's hard to tell. If this were the case, I would expect that Bella would've hammered on AntB already once Looker voted Regfan, rather than take the chance that Egg or andrew would switch over and make it a real possibility, but instead Bella posts the facepalm pic. So, yeah.
Regfan + AntB: No. Suicide bus, etc.

Bella + AntB: No. Would expect Bella to have voted Regfan by this point.

So if AntB is scum, the only person I can see him as being scum with is Looker.

• Andrew and AntB are both neutral to me at this point so you calling them town for no reason won't cut it in my book.
  
• You wanting "with every bone in your body" for me to be scum won't cut it as sufficient evidence, either, nor does it preclude
  you
  from being scum, although I do agree with your opinion of Bella's posted votecounts.
  
• Your pairs:
  • I was going to entertain your suspicion of me being scum with refutations but then I just got tired and said fuck it. So, instead, I'm going to offer my input.
    • I don't think Bella and Regfan are scum together nor could I entertain the thought of Andrew and AntB being scum together. I also had it in my mind that you were town. Due to this, I find only the following pairs likely:
      • Regfan+Andrew94
      • Regfan+AntB
      • Bella+Andrew94
      • Bella+AntB
      • And, in the off chance I was correct about Egg:
        • Egg+Andrew94
        • Egg+AntB

• Also, I disagree with you asserting that AntB is dumb enough for you to assume he's town due to dumbtelling but too smart to pass up claiming doc when pressured. If he's dumb enough for dumbtelling, then he's capable of claiming VT as opposed to doc as scum.

Looker wrote:And, in the off chance I was correct about Egg: